Analyzing Population Growth in Carbondale and Du Quoin with the expansion of the Railroad over 150

years.

Railroads in Illinois

The 1800’s witnessed dramatic expansion of the railroads throughout the United States.

Early Railroad Planning Map for Illinois

1852 - 1854

• Illinois Central Railroad builds railroad line from Cairo to Chicago

• Entrepreneurs in Du Quoin and Carbondale purchase land near the planned rail lines.

• The cities of Du Quoin and Carbondale are surveyed and plots sold to potential citizens.

• Both cities incorporate in 1853• The first train rolls through the cities on July 4th,

1854.

Carbondale Depot

Carbondale

Depot at Du Quoin

Southern Illinois Railroad Plans 1854

Southern Illinois Railroad Plans

Southern Illinois Grows

1856 1861

Railroad Depots now indicated on maps.

Year Passengers

1882 289

1890 520

1900 577

1910 972

1920 1270

1930 708

1940 456

1950 488

1960 327

1970 289

1980 281

1990 22

Passenger Train Travel

Railroad travel was the preferred mode in the early 1900’s and the

number of passengers grew dramatically.

Photos supplied by family of Celeste Naumer Flavell

Passenger Traffic Data

North American Passenger Traffic on Railwaysin Millions of Passengers

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Millions of Passengers

Carbondale Du Quoin

1870 3370 2212

1880 2213 2807

1890 2382 4052

1900 3318 4353

1910 5411 5454

1920 6267 7285

CensusData

Through 1920

Data as shown on

TI-83 Calculator

Population

Historical Population

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30000

Census Years

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Carbondale Du Quoin

Populations through 1920

Exponential Regressions

Note: Logistic Regression will not work with the given data. The calculator gave a domain error.

Du Quoin

Carbondale

Predictions for 2000

Evaluate the exponential regression equations using the data through 1920 at the year 2000

Prediction Actual

Carbondale 22,229 25,063

Du Quoin 44,860 6,448

Carbondale

Du Quoin

How good was prediction

Original regression lines with all data.

Carbondale

Du Quoin

Du Quoin

Using Exponential Regressions, Carbondale was very close, but Du Quoin was far from correct.

Carbondale: Predicted

Moving on to 2000

Current Amtrak Routes

New Carbondale Depot

Current Du Quoin Depot

Only 2 stops per day in Du Quoin

Carbondale Du Quoin

1870 3370 2212

1880 2213 2807

1890 2382 4052

1900 3318 4353

1910 5411 5454

1920 6267 7285

1930 7528 7593

1940 8550 7515

1950 10921 7147

1960 14670 6558

1970 22816 6691

1980 26287 6594

1990 27033 6697

2000 25063 6448

CensusData

Through 2000

Historical Population

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

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1930

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1990

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2010

Census Years

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Carbondale Du Quoin

Populations through 2000

Exponential Graphs

Carbondale

Du Quoin

All data was used to compute regression curve.

Exponential Predictions

Exponential prediction for 2000

Actual population for 2000

Exponential prediction for 2050

Carbondale 32,778 25,063 93,618

Du Quoin 8,625 6,448 12,222

Logistic RegressionsCarbondale Du Quoin

Carbondale

Du Quoin

Logistic Predictions

Logistic prediction for 2000

Actual population for 2000

Logistic prediction for 2050

Carbondale 28,083 25,063 33,054

Du Quoin 6,975 6,448 6,977

Conclusions

The populations of Carbondale and Du Quoin can be modeled with a logistic equation that will predict population more accurately that an exponential regression.

It appeared that both towns were growing exponentially prior to 1920 due to the fast growth of railroad usage for travel and freight.

Carbondale still grew at a near exponential rate due to the expansion of SIU in the 1960’s. Du Quoin’s population leveled off and has shown little change in many years. Has SIU originally located just north of Du Quoin as was discussed, the population curves may be reversed.

Railroad Movies

A romance of the rail / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1903.

Black Diamond express / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1896.

Arrival of McKinley's funeral train at Canton, Ohio / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. OTHER TITLES Funeral train arriving at Canton Station CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Thomas A. Edison, Inc., 1901.

Going through the tunnel / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898

Freight train / Thomas A. Edison, Inc. ; producer, James White. CREATED/PUBLISHED United States : Edison Manufacturing Co., 1898.

Current Passenger Train

View a short movie

Links and References

SIU-Carbondale Site for Adventures of the American Mindhttp://www.aam.siu.edu/siuc/index.asp

American Memories Collectionhttp://memory.loc.gov/

Library of Congress Sitehttp://www.loc.gov/

Southern Illinois University at Carbondalehttp://www.siuc.edu/

Citing Internet Resources –http://www.classroom.com/community/connection/howto/citeresources.jhtml

Perry County Historical Society Book – 1984

United States Census 1850 through 2000

International Historical Statistics, The Americas

City of Carbondale Website