ANALYTICS

AND

THE RED MEAT VALUE CHAIN

Dr David Rutley October 2017

Introduction

• Red Meat Industry

• Thomas Foods International

• Production, Prices, Volume & Variation

• Adoption of Analytics

• SAS or Fools

David Rutley

• Lamb Supply Chain Coordinator

• 30 years Red Meat Industry production & research

• Consumer Appeal, Retail, Food Service, Distribution, Processing, Finishing,

Production, Genetics

• Thomas Foods – Quantify and Connect the Supply Chain

Signals from the Consumer to the Producer

Red Meat Industry

• Unsophisticated traders

• Buyers and sellers negotiate the spot price

• Accountants check profit daily to monitor & control prices& production

• Little to no prediction

• Lots of use of Excel, so I report in Excel

Red Meat Industry

• Largest Ag industry in Australia

Including flow on effects

• $23 Billion p.a.

• Employs > 134,000 people

• $8.7 Billion household income

Thomas Foods International

• Australia’s largest family owned red meat processor

• > $ 1.5 Billion p.a.

• 3 Plants Murray Bridge, Lobethal, Tamworth

• Domestic distributor, Holco

• USA distributor, TFI USA

Thomas Foods International

• ~25,000 sheep, lambs & goats & 1,100 cattle per day

• ~3.5 Million lambs p.a. 200,000 cattle p.a.

~1.5 Million sheep p.a.

• 15 - 20% of Australia’s sheep – largest processor

80% Lamb exported approx 8 - 10% global trade

Inside the Machine

Last 3 years

• ~10,000 different suppliers

• 25 different types of beef cattle

– Organic, Angus, grass fed, grain fed, short, long & very long fed …

• New season’s lamb, lamb, hogget, mutton, goat

– Organic, grass fed, grain fed …

Inside the Machine

• 1 lamb 25 kg carcass 20 kg saleable ~1.3 cartons

• 1 beef 280 kg carcass 200 kg saleable ~13 cartons

Deconstructing a black box

– Genotype by Environment = Variation

CV HSCW = 15%

• >3,200 products

• 70+ countries

95% PL 70 to 130%

2014 Jul – 2016 Dec

• >3,200 different Products, 285,000 tonnes, 14.9 M cartons, $1.6 B

Show SAS Table of Carton Weights

Product Sales – Murray Bridge

Max Price$44.81/kg

Min Price$0.67/kg

26% varianceover 8 months

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Supply Costs – Beef & Lamb – HIGHLY Volatile

Somewhat Complex

• With this level of complexity and variation –

How do we know we are going to make a profit?

• Continual monitoring and controlling

Little to no prediction

• Trial and Error & Experience

Somewhat Complex

How do we know we are going to make a profit?

• Food is so important that it’s production

MUST be viable over the long term.

• TFI’s beef processing probably

did not make a profit at any stage

in 2016 and for at least ½ of 2017

The Future = Analytics

• Profit = Income – Expense

• Value = Profit – Risk

• Risk = Chance of a Loss Stochastic Model

MUST understand RISK & therefore VARIATION

MUST develop Predictive Models

Beef – Predict Processing Yield

• 1 Beef Carcass

• > 50 possible pieces of meat

• > 230 possible cuts of meat, bone, trim, fat or waste

TFI Beef Yield Prediction Model based on

• Hot Standard Carcass Weight

• P8 Fat Depth

• Muscle Score

• Eye Muscle Area

• Days in Chiller

Beef – Predict Processing Yield

• Collecting data to relate sale price to cattle buying price

• 25 beef programs, 10 important programs

Price by Product Code

from previous Table

Lamb Value Calculator – Predict Saleable Yield

• 1 Lamb Carcass

• > 36 possible pieces of meat

• > 92 possible cuts of meat, bone, trim, fat or waste

TFI Lamb Value Calculator based on

• Hot Standard Carcass Weight

• GR Fat Depth

• Days in Chiller

• Frequency of 4,536 different possible lamb carcasses

Lamb Value Calculator – Predict Saleable Yield

Not 0

FatnessDifferences

Supplier Benchmarking – Rangers Valley Cattle Station

• Compare >2000 suppliers

• Value $20 per 400kg steer

• $750,000 per year

• Eliminated bottom 20% suppliers

Beef Eating Quality

• > 17 traits

• Have 1 minute to record 8 of these in the marshalling room.

Lamb Eating Quality

• 6 lambs/minute

• Cannot measure pH or Intra Muscular Fat (marbling) this fast

• Looking at hyperspectral imaging without cutting carcasses

– 530 different wavelengths

Beef & Lamb Yield & Processing

DEXA

• Predict Lean Meat Yield

• Drive robots for automated processing

David Rutley – Biologist & Applied Statistician

Since 1984

• GLIMM, REG, Genstat, ASREML, S, SPSS, R & SAS(since 1994)

I have found SAS to be the most capable of

• handling Large & Complex data sets

• Robust, Repeatable & Verifiable analyses

PROPHESIS Province of Deaf Mutes & Fools

Provided we understand Confidence & Prediction Limits

Good Prediction Better than Guessing

INVESTING vs GAMBLING

KNOWLEDGE

THANK YOU……….