analysis of sme credit rating by use of big data and ... 4_naoyuki yoshino.pdf · analysis of sme...
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Analysis of SME Credit Rating by use of Big Data
and finance for start ups
Naoyuki YoshinoDean, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
Professor Emeritus, Keio University, Japan
[email protected], [email protected]
Farhad Taghizadeh-HesaryAssistant Professor, Keio University, Japan
Visiting Professor, University of Tokyo
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Analysis of SMEs in Asia
1, Importance of SMEs in Asia
2, Credit Guarantee to SMEs
3, Collection of SME data
4, Optimal credit guarantee ratio
5, Hometown Investment Trust
funds for start up businesses2
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SMEs Share in Employment (%)
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Borrower, Lender and Market
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BorrowerSMEs
Individuals
LenderBanks
MicroCredit
Market
Information Asymmetry
Especially SME market
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Access to Finance by SMEs and
Large Firms in Japan
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Barriers for SMEs in Accessing Financial
Institutions, Collateral,Higher rate
6Source: ADB–OECD study on enhancing financial accessibility for SMEs: Lessons from recent crises.
Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2013
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Small and Medium Sized Enterprise
(SME)
Toyota Honda, Seven Eleven, Nintendo
HONDA was not supported by government.
Mr. HONDA worked at SME as a repairman.
HONDA could not borrow money from Local
Bank. Mitsubishi-bank made loans to
HONDA.
How to finance start-up business ?
Seven-eleven, President ITO7
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Optimal Credit Guarantee Ratio
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Cluster Analysis of Banks
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Calculated Optimal Credit Guarantee ratios
15/03/2017 Yoshino - Taghizadeh 23
Group 1 of banks: 0.775
Group 2 of banks: 0.683
the optimal credit guarantee ratio in our model depends
on three groups of factors:
1. macroeconomic variables
2. government policies,
3. banking profile.
These two groups consist of various variables
including:price of land, price of stock, gross domestic
product (GDP), money supply, actual SME loans, fixed
demand for loans, deposit interest rate, expected GDP,
marginal increase of nonperforming loans by increase
of additional loans, desired SME loans, desired default
risk ratio of loan, weight for stabilizing the SME loans,
weight for reducing the nonperforming loan ratio, and
financial profile of banks.
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Possible SolutionsStart up businesses, farmers
Hometown InvestmentTrust Funds : Springer--------------------------------------------------
A Stable Way to Supply Risk Capital
Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji Sahoko (Eds.)2013,
Japan, CambodiaVietnam, Peru, Mongolia
Access to Digital Technology
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Internet On-line trade
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Start ups
Farmers
Innovators
InternetCompany
Advertize
Consumers
FSA: registration
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Investment in SMEs and start up businesses
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利子率の違いによる借入比率と返済期間の関係(平均消費性向85%、所得伸び率2.89%)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
返済期間(年)
初期借入比率/所得比率
5%金利
10%
15%
20%25%
29.2%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%60%
65%
70%
Interest rate and lending term
to avoid debt overhang
L
o
a
n
/
S
A
L
E
S
Terms of Loans
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