analysis and risk management of overshoot futures...ecp4.5 ecp6 ecp6-scp rcp8.5 rcp ecp 2300 rcp ecp...
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Analysis and risk management of overshoot futures
Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
1 August 2013
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What policymakers are
asking
Can the scientific
community provides
answers?
Yes Focus of research &
assessment
No Research agenda
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What policymakers
are asking
What policymakers
are not asking
Can the scientific
community
provides answers?
Yes Focus of research &
assessment
Should be making
policymakers aware
No Research agenda Emerging issues
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Why Overshoots
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van Vuuren et al. 2011
Emissions Radiative Forcing
• For long-term CMIP experiments, an extension of each RCP
was produced using a simple climate model (MAGICC)
• These are not IAM results and do not have underlying
socioeconomic assumptions
• Assume static land use post-2100
• Designed in consultation with CMIP and IAV representatives
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Climate change risks = ƒ {Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability}
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Reasons for Concern
Smith et al. 2009
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Bell et al. 2013
Skipjack tuna A2
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Malaria deaths due to climate change, SRES A1B
Tol et al. 2007
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O’Neill et al. 2013
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
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