anÁlisis de la evoluciÓn de la prima de riesgo espaÑola

Upload: biblioteca-de-turismo-y-finanzas-universidad-de-sevilla

Post on 20-Feb-2018

231 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    1/53

    BJG\FSJC CL S\QNWOD ^ BNKJKYJW

    MQJCD LK BNKJKYJW ^ GDKSJANFNCJC

    Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    Srjajid Bnk cl Mrjcd prlslktjcd pdr Pjafd Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, snlkcd lf tutdr clf onsodC. Gjrfds Jrnjs Ojrtk

    R. A. clf Sutdr9 Jfuokd9

    C. Gjrfds Jrnjs Ojrtk C. Pjafd Nvjrs Ojrgelkj

    Wlvnffj. Iuknd cl 10:

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    2/53

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    3/53

    MQJCD LK BNKJKYJW ^ GDKSJANFNCJC

    BJG\FSJC CL S\QNWOD ^ BNKJKYJW

    SQJAJID BNK CL MQJCD

    G\QWD JGJCONGD X10:3-10:

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    4/53

    Mrjcd lk Bnkjkzjs y Gdktjanfncjc

    Bjguftjc cl Surnsod y Bnkjkzjs \knvlrsncjc cl Wlvnffj

    -1-

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    5/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -N-

    KCNGL

    :. NKSQDC\GGNK, DAILSNRDW ^ OLSDCDFDMJ .............................................................................................................::.:. NKSQDC\GGNK ...........................................................................................................................................................................................:

    :.1. DAILSNRDW ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................:

    :.7. OLSDCDFDMJ .............................................................................................................................................................................................1

    :.7.:. QLFJGNK QJSNKMW-PQNOJ CL QNLWMD .............................................................................................7

    :.7.1. QLFJGNK PNA-PQNOJ CL QNLWMD ...................................................................................................................2

    :.7.7. QLFJGNK RJQNJAFLW NKSJKMNAFLW- PQNOJ CL QNLWMD..............................=

    1. PQNOJ CL QNLWMD LWPJDFJ ..........................................................................................................................................................................>

    1.:. CLBNKNGNK ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................>

    1.1. RJQNJAFLW....................................................................................................................................................................................................... :0

    1.7. JBLGSJGNK J GN\CJCJKJ .......................................................................................................................................::

    7. JMLKGNJW GJFNBNGJCDQJW CL QNLWMD .................................................................................................................................:7

    7.:. NKSQDC\GGNK ......................................................................................................................................................................................:7

    7.1. JKSLGLCLKSLW GDKGLPSD ..............................................................................................................................:7

    7.1.:. ODDC^W NKRLWSDQ WLQRNGL ......................................................................................................:3

    7.1.1. WSJKCJQC & PDDQW GDQPDQJSNDK .............................................................................:

    3.:. GDKGLPSD ......................................................................................................................................................................................................:>

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    6/53

    -NN-

    2.1.:. PQNOJ CL QNLWMD ..................................................................................................................................................1>

    2.1.1. PNA ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................70

    2.7. LUPFNGJGNK OUNOD ENWSQNGD PQNOJ CL QNLWMD ......................................... 7:

    2.7.:. QJSNKM CL FJW JMLKGNJW CL GJFNBNGJGNK............................................... 7:

    2.7.:.:. ODDC^W .......................................................................................................................................................71

    2.7.:.1. WSJKCJQC & PDDQW .............................................................................................................71

    2.7.:.7. BNSGE .....................................................................................................................................................................77

    2.7.:.3. GDKI\KSD CL FJW SQLW JMLKGNJW.................................................... 73

    2.7.1. PNA ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................72

    2.7.7. RJQNJAFLW NKSJKMNAFLW ........................................................................................................................75

    2.7.7.:. L\QDPJ JPQ\LAJ LF QLWGJSL J MQLGNJ............................ 7>

    2.7.7.1. LF AGL EJQ FD KLGLWJQND ..............................................................................30

    2.7.7.7. Q\LCJ PQLKWJ AGL BQKGBDQS.............................................................3:

    5. GDKGF\WNDKLW ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................37

    ANAFNDMQJBJ ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................3

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    7/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -:-

    GJPS\FD :

    NKSQDC\GGNK, DAILSNRDW OLSDCDFDMJ

    :.: NKSQDC\GGNK

    Ajskcdkds lk fds jrtgufds cl nkvlrtnrlkadfsj.nkbd tntufjcd Zu ls fj prnoj clrnlsmd, lf jrtgufd cl zdkjlgdkongj.gdo jglrgj clf rnlsmd pjs y fj lktrjcj clfcnggndkjrnd lgdkongd clf plrncngd lxpjksnk jglrgj clf grlgnonlktd lgdkongdlxpdklods lf prlslktl lpmrjbl.

    Fds lstjcds guopflk ukj bukgnk pafngj y sdgnjf cl ojktlklr slrvngnds sdgnjflsgdod sdk fj lcugjgnk, fj sjkncjc y ukj slrnl cl prlstjgndkls j gdflgtnvdsclsbjvdrlgncds qul lk su gdkiuktd gdopdklk lf ffjojcd Lstjcd clf Anlklstjr. CngedLstjcd clf Anlklstjr ls klglsjrnd pjrj mjrjktnzjr fj prdsplrncjc y fj nmujfcjc clgdkcngndkls sdgnjfls cl fj pdafjgnk clf pjs.

    Pjrj sdstlklr tdcd fd jktlrndr sl mlklrj uk mjstd pafngd nopdrtjktl, qul slrguanlrtd gdk nkmrlsds pafngds. Wnk loajrmd, lk odolktds puktujfls, fds nkmrlsdspafngds kd slrk subngnlktls pjrj ojktlklr lf mjstd pafngd, pdr fd qul sl tnlkl qulrlgurrnr j olcncjs lxtrjdrcnkjrnjs cl bnkjkgnjgnk clf Lstjcd. Fds nkmrlsdslxtrjdrcnkjrnds lstk gdopulstds pdr fj lonsnk cl clucj pafngj, fj prnvjtnzjgnk clloprlsjs, fj vlktj cl pjtrnodknd pafngd y fj grljgnk cl cnklrd. Cl lffds, fjprnkgnpjf bulktl cl bnkjkgnjgnk sl trjtj cl fj lonsnk cl clucj pafngj. Jf gdarjr ukjrlflvjkgnj kdtjafl lf Lstjcd ej cl ojktlklr lstjafls y onknonzjr fds gdstls cl sulonsnk.

    Pjrj pdclr gdfdgjr lstj clucj lktrl fds nkvlrsdrls pafngds y prnvjcds, lf Lstjcdsl clal gdoprdoltlr j pjmjr ukj gujktj lgdkongj lk uk buturd, qul clplkcl cl fjrlktjanfncjc lk lf odolktd cl fj trjksjggnk cl clucj clf jgtnvd bnkjkgnlrd.

    Lk lf olrgjcd prnojrnd fj clucj sl lontl jf clsgulktd, olcnjktl suajstjgdopltntnvj d suajstj kd gdopltntnvj. Clscl :>52, fds nkvlrsdrls clgnclk lf tnpd clnktlrs jf qul lstk cnspulstds j jcqunrnr fj clucj y lf Lstjcd vj gdfdgkcdfj ejstjfflmjr jf oxnod cl clucj prlvnstj d j uk tnpd nktlrs oxnod prlbnijcd. Fdsprnkgnpjfls nkvlrsdrls sdk ajkgds d bdkcds cl nkvlrsnk. Wnk loajrmd, gdk fjmfdajfnzjgnk y fj mrjk dblrtj y clojkcj cl ttufds lxnstlktl sl daslrvjk plrbnfls ouycnblrlktls cl nkvlrsdr, qul nktlktjk guarnr dailtnvds cl nkvlrsnk y rnlsmds ouycnblrlktls. Gdk lstl pfjktljonlktd lf Slsdrd Pafngd tnlkl fjs prlonsjs cl bnkjkgnjrfds mjstds pafngds jf olkdr gdstl y rnlsmd pdsnafl.

    Fj rlktjanfncjc cl gjcj lonsnk ls cnblrlktl y clplkcl cl ougejs vjrnjafls gdodfj clojkcj d lf pfjzd cl vlkgnonlktd cl fj lonsnk. J ojydr clojkcj, olkdrrlktjanfncjc y j ojydr pfjzd cl vlkgnonlktd ojydr rlktjanfncjc. Wnk loajrmd,jkjfnzjrlods lk lf prlslktl trjajid fj prlslkgnj cl dtrjs vjrnjafls cl gjrgtlrlodgndkjf, cnbgnfolktl gujktnbngjafls qul nkbfulkgnjrk cl ojklrj kdtjafl jf gdstlcl fj lonsnk cl clucj pjrj lf Lstjcd.

    Gujkcd fds nkvlrsdrls jcqunlrlk fds ttufds cl clucj, stds gdonlkzjk j gdtnzjr lklf olrgjcd slgukcjrnd. Clancd j fj lflvjcj fnqunclz cl fj clucj pafngj, lf vdfuolkcl dplrjgndkls rlmnstrjcjs lk fds olrgjcds slgukcjrnds ls ouy nopdrtjktl, cjkcd fjdpdrtukncjc j fds nkvlrsdrls cl vlkclr fds ttufds jktls cl su vlkgnonlktd. Fds qulclgnclk ojktlklrfds ejstj lf vlkgnonlktd jsuonrk uk rnlsmd pdr ukj pdsnafl prcncjdgjsndkjcj pdr fj prdajanfncjc cl nkguopfnonlktd cl fjs dafnmjgndkls clf lonsdr. Pjrj

    fds qul prltlkcjk fj vlktj cl fds ttufds jktls cl su vlkgnonlktd, lf rnlsmd vnlklclbnkncd pdr fj prcncj cl gjfncjc grlcntngnj clf lonsdr, fd qul gdkfflvj ukj ajijcj clprlgnds.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    8/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -1-

    Lf olrgjcd slgukcjrnd cl clucj sl lkgjrmj cl gruzjr dblrtj y clojkcj y cl bnijruk prlgnd cl gdtnzjgnk qul vj vjrnjkcd clplkcnlkcd cl fj gdkbnjkzj cl fds nkvlrsdrlslk lf lonsdr cl fj clucj. Wl trjtj pdr fd mlklrjf cl uk vjfdr ouy vdftnf, qul pulclvlrsl jblgtjcd pdr suglsds dgurrncds tjktd j bjgtdrls nktlrkds gdod lxtlrkds jf pjslk gulstnk. Cngej gdtnzjgnk snrvl cl muj pjrj bnijr fds prlgnds cl lonsnk cl fdsttufds lk lf olrgjcd prnojrnd.

    Fj prnoj cl rnlsmd cl uk pjs sl bnij lk lf olrgjcd slgukcjrnd, gdod cnblrlkgnjlktrl fj gdtnzjgnk clf adkd j :0 jds y lf jgtnvd cl rlblrlkgnj os bnjafl (lk gjsd clLurdpj, lf adkd jflok j :0 jds)

    :.1 DAILSNRDW

    Curjktl lf plrdcd cl grnsns bnkjkgnlrj lf tronkd prnoj cl rnlsmd ej pjsjcd j dgupjrukj sntujgnk prnvnflmnjcj lk gujktd j fj olcngnk cl fj slvlrncjc gdk fj qul sllkgulktrj jblgtjcd lf pjs pdr cngej gdyukturj. Ej prdtjmdknzjcd fds tntufjrls cl fdsolcnds cl gdoukngjgnk os prlstnmndsds j knvlf kjgndkjf, gjptjkcd uk prdtjmdknsod

    kukgj jktls vnstd pdr lstj vjrnjafl ojgrdlgdkongj. Wu gdkdgnonlktd y bdroufjgnkej trjspjsjcd lf gdflgtnvd cl lgdkdonstjs y lxplrtds bnkjkgnlrds pjrj pjsjr j bdrojrpjrtl cl fj gufturj mlklrjf lspjdfj. Jk js, pdclods jcvlrtnr nkgfusd lktrlnkvlrsdrls cl clucj pafngj lf clsgdkdgnonlktd jglrgj cl fjs gjusjs cl su lvdfugnk.

    Fj bnkjfncjc clf prlslktl trjajid ls, olcnjktl ukj tdoj cl cjtds y lf trjtjonlktd clfds onsods gdk lf prdmrjoj Ongrdsdbt Lxglf, bdroufjr jkfnsns qul dtdrmulk gnbrjslxpfngjtnvjs cl fjs rlfjgndkls lktrl cnblrlktls vjrnjafls y fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj clrnlsmd lk lf plrdcd gdoprlkcncd lktrl fds jds 100= y 10:3. Jpfngjrlods cngedslstucnds jf oxnod enstrngd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd, jgjlgncd lf 13 cl iufnd cl 10:1pjrj gdoprdajr qu vjrnjafls nkbfulkgnjrdk cngeds vjfdrls.

    Kds ojrgjods ukj slrnl cl dailtnvds prnkgnpjfls j fd fjrmd cl fj rlcjggnk clf

    prlslktl trjajid, fds gujfls sdk9 Clbnknr cl ojklrj gdkgrltj, gdkgnsj y gfjrj lf gdkglptd cl prnoj cl rnlsmd,

    js gdod lf cl fjs vjrnjafls qul tlkmjk rlfjgnk gdk fj onsoj.

    Qljfnzjgnk cl lstucnds ajsjcds lk ukj slrnl cl dplrjgndkls lstjcstngjs,jglrgj cl fj lxnstlkgnj cl rlfjgndkls y gujktnbngjr fjs onsojs lktrl9vjrnjgnk cl rjtnkms cl jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk y lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj clrnlsmd8 knvlf cl PNA y prnoj cl rnlsmd.

    Lf lstucnd cl gjsds gdkgrltds cl vjrnjafls nktjkmnafls d lf gdkdgncd lblgtdslktnonlktd clf nkvlrsdr

    Jkfnsns clf oxnod enstrngd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd l nktlktd cl jpfngjgnk clfds jkfnsns rljfnzjcds jf vjfdr datlkncd.

    :.7 OLSDCDFDMJ

    Wl ausgj lxpfngjr gdk fj rlcjggnk clf prlslktl trjajid fj rlfjgnk qul lxnstl lktrl fjvjrnjgnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj gdk cnblrlktls olcncdrls lgdkongds ybnkjkgnlrds lk lf plrdcd gdoprlkcncd lktrl fds jds 100= y 10:7. Jf datlklr cngejsrlfjgndkls fj bnkjfncjc ls lstucnjr lf oxnod enstrngd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj,blgejcd lf 13 cl iufnd cl 10:1, gdoprdajkcd qul pjrtl clf grlgnonlktd gdrrlspdkcl jvjrnjafls olcnafls y qul pjrtls j fjs ffjojcjs vjrnjafls nktjkmnafls d slktnonlktd clf

    nkvlrsdr.Pjrj lffd sl ej prdglcncd j lxtrjlr cjtds cl fj pmnkjwww.cjtdsojgrd.gdoy clf

    NKL, (Nkstntutd Kjgndkjf cl Lstjcstngj). Cngeds cjtds cl pjrtncj sl gdopdklk clf PNA

    http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/
  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    9/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -7-

    trnolstrjf lk Lspjj, uk slmunonlktd j fj Prnoj cl Qnlsmd lk cnvlrsjs blgejslstjaflgncjs, lf prlgnd clf adkd j :0 jds y fjs gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs rljfnzjcjssdarl fj clucj lspjdfj pdr fjs trls prnkgnpjfls jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm nktlrkjgndkjfls.

    Wdarl cngej nkbdrojgnk sl ej rljfnzjcd uk jkfnsns olcnjktl fj utnfnzjgnk cl edijscl gfgufd gdk lf prdmrjoj nkbdrotngd Ongrdsdbt Lxglf. Gdk lstj elrrjonlktj sl ejk

    jcjptjcd fds cjtds j fds dailtnvds cl lstucnd, gdk fj onrj pulstj j knvlf kjgndkjf.Wl tdrkj klglsjrnd clbnknr ukj slrnl cl tronkds qul lstucnjrlods lk lf prlslktl

    trjajid ajskcdkds lk lf fnard cl Gjsjs Wkgelz, Ojrtds Mfvlz y Slilrj Ojrtktntufjcd Lstjcstngj jpfngjcj jf turnsod, js gdod fjs lktrjcjs cl fj wlalgdkdoj35.gdo9

    Gdlbngnlktl cl gdrrlfjgnk9 Ls ukj olcncj lstjcstngj jopfnjolktl utnfnzjcjqul oncl lf mrjcd cl rlfjgnk fnkljf lktrl cds vjrnjafls. Lfgdlbngnlktl cl gdrrlfjgnk clal sntujrsl lk fj ajkcj cl -: j +:, snlkcd cnrlgtjfj rlfjgnk gujkcd lf gdlbngnlktl ls ;0 l nkcnrlgtj gujkcd lf gdlbngnlktl tdojvjfdrls 60. Oncl fj nktlrclplkclkgnj fnkljf lktrl cds vjrnjafls. Lk lf gjsd clqul slj 0, kd lxnstl rlfjgnk fnkljf.

    Gdlbngnlktl cl cltlronkjgnk9 Olcncj lstjcstngj qul lqunvjfl jf gujcrjcdclf gdlbngnlktl cl gdrrlfjgnk. Gdlbngnlktl qul oncl lf mrjcd cl lxpfngjgnk quldtdrmj uk odclfd fnkljf. Sdoj lf vjfdr 0 lk gjsd cl lxpfngjgnk kufj ylf vjfdr : lk gjsd cl lxpfngjgnk tdtjf.

    Fklj cl tlkclkgnj9 Nkstruolktd lstjcstngd jpfngjcd j fj prlvnsnk clfgdopdrtjonlktd cl cds vjrnjafls rlfjgndkjcjs lktrl lffjs. Ls ukj rlgtj qulpjsj fd os glrgj pdsnafl j tdcds fds puktds, jpfngjkcd lf otdcd cl oknodsgujcrjcds.

    :.7.: LWS\CND CL FJ QLFJGNK LKSQL QJSNKMW ^ RJQNJGNK CL FJ PQNOJ

    CL QNLWMDLf prnolr jkfnsns rljfnzjcd lk lf prlslktl trjajid vj lkbdgjcd j fj rlflvjkgnj quljcqunlrl lk fj grnsns bnkjkgnlrj y lgdkongj lspjdfj lktrl fds jds 100= y 10:7 fdsrjtnkms cl fjs jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk jglrgj cl fj clucj lspjdfj y fj vjrnjgnk qulsubrl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd.

    Pjrj edodmlklnzjr fds cjtds y pdclr trjajijr gdrrlgtjolktl gdk lffds sl ejutnfnzjcd uk snstloj pjrj gujktnbngjr fds sjftds lk fjs vjrnjgndkls cl fjs cnblrlktlsjmlkgnjs. Cnged snstloj sl ajsj lk cds vjrnjafls qul sl pulclk olcnr y gujktnbngjrcl ojklrj slkgnffj. Daslrvjods uk lilopfd cl fj olcngnk clf sjftd lktrl cdsgjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs9

    Oddcys

    Blgej Gjfnbngjgnk Rjrnjgnk d sjftd

    1:/01/:3 Ajj1 (pdsntnvj) +:,77

    :1/03/:7 Ajj7 (lstjafl)

    Bnmurj :.: Oddcys.Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Fj vjrnjgnk lktrl fj gjfnbngjgnk clf :1/03/:7 Ajj7 (lstjafl) y fj clf 1:/01/:3Ajj1 (pdsntnvj) ls cl +:,77. Cnged sjftd sl clal j cds gdopdklktls. Lf prnolrd cllffds y lf os nopdrtjktl ls lf gdrrlspdkcnlktl j fj gjfnbngjgnk grlcntngnj prdpnjolktlcngej. Jukqul gjcj jmlkgnj utnfnzj kdolkgfjturj cnblrlktl, fjs vjrnjgndkls y fjsrlfjgndkls lktrl fjs cnblrlktls tnpdfdmjs cl gjfnbngjgndkls sl lkgulktrjk

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    10/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -3-

    jclgujcjolktl clbnkncjs, pdr fd qul kd ejy os qul jgucnr j fj tjafj y gdoprdajr lfsjftd qul lxnstl lktrl fj gjfnbngjgnk Ajj7 y Ajj1

    Bnmurj :.1. Gjfnbngjgndkls cl jmlkgnjs.Bulktl9 gdkplrngnj.gdo

    Daslrvjods fjs vjrnjgndkls lk bukgnk cl fj blgej cl puafngjgnk cl gjcj ukj. Pdrfd tjktd, fj vjrnjgnk gdrrlspdkcnlktl j fj gjfnbngjgnk grlcntngnj slrj cl +:, ls clgnr,qul sl ej olidrjcd lk uk puktd fj gjfncjc grlcntngnj.

    Fj dtrj pjrtl clf cnblrlkgnjf sl lxtrjl j pjrtnr cl fjs lxplgtjtnvjs clktrd cl gjcjmrjcd cl gjfnbngjgnk. Pjrj lffd, fjs jmlkgnjs daslrvjkcd y pdkclrjkcd fjs vjrnjaflsojgrdlgdkongjs y sdgnd-pdftngjs prlslktls lk sus odclfds ojtlotngds prdpdklk

    trls sua-gjtlmdrjs clktrd cl gjcj gjfnbngjgnk9 Plrsplgtnvj pdsntnvj9 Olcnjktl lf snstloj utnfnzjcd lk lf prlslktl trjajid

    pjrj olcnr fds sjftds, dtdrmjods ukj puktujgnk cl +0,77 jktl cngejgjfnbngjgnk.

    Plrsplgtnvj lstjafl9 Fj puktujods gdk +0,00

    Plrsplgtnvj klmjtnvj9 Fj puktujods gdk -0,77

    Rdfvnlkcd jf lilopfd rljf jktlrndr cl cds gjfnbngjgndkls dtdrmjcjs pdr Oddcys j fjgjfncjc grlcntngnj cl Lspjj, tlopdrjfolktl jpjrlgl prnolrd Ajj7 (lstjafl), pjsjkcdj Ajj1 (pdsntnvj) y, ukj vlz lxpfngjcj fj vjrnjgnk cl +: prdcugncj pdr lf gjoand lktrlAjj7 y Ajj1, pjsjods j jkjfnzjr y gujktnbngjr lf sjftd qul sl prdcugl lktrl ukjgjfnbngjgnk lstjafl y ukj pdsntnvj. Pjrj lffd, dtdrmjods j fj prnolrj cl lffjs (lstjafl)ukj puktujgnk cl +0,00 y j fj ftnoj (pdsntnvj) fj puktujgnk +0,77. Lilgutjkcd fjcnblrlkgnj lktrl lffjs kds jpjrlgl fj pjrtl clf sjftd qul qulcjaj lk fj gjfnbngjgnk9+0,77.

    \kj vlz trjtjcds fds cjtds rlblrlktls j gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs qulcjedodmlklnzjr fds qul sl lkgulktrjk rlblrncds j fj lvdfugnk cl fj Prnoj cl Qnlsmdlspjdfj. Gdod fj dplrjtnvj clf jkfnsns sl ajsj lk fj jpfngjgnk cl gnlrtjs bukgndklslstjcstngjs pjrj lf lstucnd cl fj gdrrlfjgnk y lf gdlbngnlktl cl cltlronkjgnk lktrl fjvjrnjgnk cl fjs gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs y fj lvdfugnk clf PNA, clalods trjksbdrojrlstj ftnoj tnpdfdmj cl cjtds j vjrnjgndkls lxprlsjcds lk puktds. Pjrj lffd, ejy qul

    lstucnjr prnolrjolktl lf nopjgtd qul prdvdgj fj vjrnjgnk cl gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjsj fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj, yj qul jblgtj j gdrtd pfjzd, jasdrankcdsl lf lblgtd gdk lf

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    11/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    12/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -2-

    Bnmurj :.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    13/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -=-

    Bnkjfolktl lxtrjlods lf mrbngd cl cnsplrsnk cl fjs cds vjrnjafls lstucnjcjs y,olcnjktl lf onsod, lf gfgufd cl fj fklj cl rlmrlsnk, js gdod su bdroufjgnkojtlotngj y lf vjfdr cl Q1.

    Bnmurj :.=. Fklj cl tlkclkgnj.Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Gdk lffd datlklods fj fklj cl tlkclkgnj qul rlfjgndkj j fjs cds vjrnjafls, sulxprlsnk ojtlotngj y su Q1, gdk fd qul gdkslmunods fds cjtds qul ausgajods lklf prlslktl lstucnd jglrgj cl fj rlfjgnk lktrl lf PNA y fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj.

    :.7.7. LWS\CND CL FJ QLFJGNK LKSQL RJQNJAFLW NKSJKMNAFLW ^ PQNOJCL QNLWMD

    Lstucnjrlods fjs trls sntujgndkls qul os ejk nkbfuncd lk fj vjrnjgnk cl fj prnoj clrnlsmd cl Lspjj curjktl lf plrdcd lstucnjcd, ajskcdkds lk fjs ncljsclsjrrdffjcjs lk lf jrtgufd cl lf plrncngd Lf Pjs jglrgj cl fj lvdfugnk cl lstjvjrnjafl, js gdod fds odvnonlktds prdcugncds sdarl fj onsoj, pjrj trjtjr clgdoprlkclr fds lblgtds qul dgjsndkjk fds olcnds cl gdoukngjgnk sdarl lf gdstl clfj clucj cl fds pjsls, tjktd j knvlf kjgndkjf gdod nktlrkjgndkjf.

    Pjrj prdglclr, tdojrlods gdod rlblrlkgnj lf vjfdr cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd j gnlrrl

    cl olrgjcd uk cj jktls clf gjsd j lstucnjr. Pdstlrndrolktl cngej gnbrj fjgdopjrjrlods gdk trls olcncjs cnblrlktls cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj. Wl trjtjr cl9

    Fj olcnj cl fds vjfdrls qul tdoj fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lk fjs gnkgd blgejssnmunlktls jf suglsd. (Ouy gdrtd pfjzd, sl lsplrj prgtngjolktl kufjjgtujgnk cl fjs clos vjrnjafls)

    Olcnj cl fds vjfdrls qul tdoj fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lk fjs vlnktl blgejssnmunlktls jf suglsd. (Olcnd pfjzd, lxnstnlkcd fj pdsnanfncjc cl jftlrjgnk clfds rlsuftjcds pdr fj odcnbngjgnk cl fjs clos vjrnjafls)

    Sdoj cl gnbrjs ffjojtnvjs, kdrojfolktl j uk ols clf suglsd, qul slgdopjrjrk cnrlgtjolktl gdk lf vjfdr cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd iustd jktls clf

    suglsd cl lstucnd.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    14/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -5-

    Wl oncl lf pdrglktjil cl grlgnonlktd d clgrlgnonlktd cl fj prnoj lk lf plrdcdojrgjcd. Gdkdgnlkcd fjs fnontjgndkls lxnstlktls lk lf lstucnd cl fjs vjrnjaflsnktjkmnafls nktlktjods odstrjr fj oxnoj dailtnvncjc y bnjanfncjc pdsnafl cl fds cjtdsdatlkncds.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    15/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    ->-

    GJPS\FD 1

    PQNOJ CL QNLWMD LWPJDFJ

    1.: CLBNKNGNK CLF SQONKD PQNOJ CL QNLWMD

    Lk fklj gdk fd lxpulstd lk fj wlawww.nkvlrtnrlkadfsj.nkbd,lf cnggndkjrnd lgdkongdclf cnjrnd lxpjksnk y fds jpuktls cl snstlojs y olrgjcds bnkjkgnlrds clf mrjcd lkbnkjkzjs y gdktjanfncjc clbnknods fj prnoj cl rnlsmd gdod fj cnblrlkgnj cl rlktjanfncjcd cl prlgnd lktrl cds jgtnvds snonfjrls. Oncl fj cnblrlkgnj cl rnlsmd, bnjanfncjc ypdsnanfncjc cl rltdrkd clf gjpntjf, bnikcdsl slmk lf olrgjcd cl gdoprj-vlktj cl fdsonsods, ajskcdsl lk lf knvlf cl gdkbnjkzj cl fds nkvlrsdrls.

    Ls ukj vjrnjafl gjoanjktl gdk lf tnlopd y lk gdktnkud odvnonlktd clancd jfjsplgtd cnkongd cl fds olrgjcds cl jgtnvds, yj qul fj prnoj cl rnlsmd sl gjfgufjsdarl fds adkds yj lontncds y qul, pdr tjktd, gdtnzjk lk lf olrgjcd slgukcjrnd.

    Fj gdtnzjgnk clf adkd lspjdf j :0 jds ls fj rlktjanfncjc qul dbrlgl cnged jgtnvd.Gujktd ojydr slj lf rnlsmd clf jgtnvd, ojydr fj rlktjanfncjc qul clal dbrlglr j fdsnkvlrsdrls qul fd gdoprjk. Fj prnoj cl rnlsmd clf adkd lspjdf j :0 jds sl gjfgufjlk rlblrlkgnj j fj rlktjanfncjc dbrlgncj pdr lf onsod jgtnvd cl clucj cl Jflojknj.

    \k tronkd ouy rlgurrlktl j utnfnzjrfd cl fj onsoj ojklrj qul fj prnoj cl rnlsmdls lf ffjojcd rnlsmd pjs. Lf gdkglptd cl rnlsmd pjs ejgl rlblrlkgnj j fjprdajanfncjc cl qul uk pjs, lonsdr cl clucj, slj nkgjpjz cl rlspdkclr j susgdoprdonsds cl pjmd cl clucj, lk gjpntjf l nktlrlsls, lk fds tronkds jgdrcjcds.Gdk tdcd lstd daslrvjods qul lxnstl ukj rlfjgnk cnrlgtj y cl onsod slktncd lktrl lfgrlgnonlktd clf rnlsmd pjs y cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd.

    Wl gdkdgl gdod prnoj cl rnlsmdpdrqul ls fj rlktjanfncjc qul lxnmlk cl os

    fds nkvlrsdrls pjrj gdoprjr fds adkds clf nkvlrsdr olkds bnjafl (Lspjj). Pjrjgdoprjr adkds lspjdfls fds nkvlrsdrls tnlklk qul mjkjr os cnklrd (datlklr ukjojydr rlktjanfncjc) qul sn gdoprjk adkds jflojkls y guktd os lstnojk fdsnkvlrsdrls qul clalk mjkjr pdr gdoprjr fds adkds lspjdfls lk fumjr cl fdsjflojkls ls fd qul oncl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd.

    Pjrj gjfgufjr fj prnoj cl rnlsmd fd ejglods olcnjktl puktds asngds. Wn pdrlilopfd cnspdklods cl cds jgtnvds J y A, snlkcd sus gdtnzjgndkls fjs snmunlktls9

    Qlktjanfncjc jgtnvd J9 1%

    Qlktjanfncjc jgtnvd A9 7,

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    16/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -:0-

    Wnk loajrmd, lk fj prgtngj fd ejantujf ls olcnr fj prnoj cl rnlsmd sdarl lf lonsdros bnjafl gdk rlsplgtd j fds cnstnktds lonsdrls cl jgtnvds snonfjrls. Lk lf gjsd clLurdpj, gdk rlsplgtd j clucjs sdalrjkjs d pafngjs, sl utnfnzj fj prnoj cl rnlsmd clfadkd j :0 jds cl fds lonsdrls olkds bnjafls gdk rlsplgtd jf adkd j :0 jdsjflok.

    Ejy qul clstjgjr qul fj prnoj cl rnlsmd kd ls jfmd dailtnvd, snkd suailtnvd. Cngej

    suailtnvncjc sl clal jf gdopdrtjonlktd cl fds olrgjcds. Fds nkvlrsdrls kd snloprlsl ajsjk lk vjrnjafls qul sl pulcjk olcnr, snkd qul tjoank sl vlk jblgtjcds pdrlodgndkls plrsdkjfls, gdkcngndkjcjs pdr pjroltrds cl ouy cnbgnf gujktnbngjgnk.

    Gujkcd cngeds pjroltrds jfgjkzjk gdtjs lflvjcjs cl suailtnvncjc sl pulcl fflmjrj knvlfls d prlgnds cnbgnfolktl lxpfngjafls olcnjktl olcncjs lgdkongjs dbnkjkgnlrjs, pdr fd qul kd sl rlbflijrj lf vjfdr rljf cl fds jgtnvds gdtnzjcds. Lk cngejssntujgndkls, fds nkvlrsdrls qul jgtlk cl ojklrj rjgndkjf tnlkclk j gdoplksjr fdsclsjiustls tlopdrjfls cl cnged olrgjcd, datlknlkcd uk alklbngnd j gjoand.

    1.1 BJGSDQLW Z\L JBLGSJK J FJ LRDF\GNK CL FJ PQNOJ CL QNLWMD

    Ajskcdkds lk lf jrtgufd jglrgj clf rnlsmd pjs cl fj wlawww.zdkjlgdkdongj.gdoy fds jpuktls cl nktrdcuggnk j fj lgdkdoj clf mrjcd lk bnkjkzjs y gdktjanfncjclxnstlk ukj ouftntuc cl pjroltrds d bjgtdrls cl jblgtjk cl ojklrj pdsntnvj dklmjtnvj j fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd. Jfmukds pjroltrds sdk bgnfolktlgujktnbngjafls y daslrvjafls, snk loajrmd fj cnbnguftjc cl olcngnk cl dtrds gdkglptdsejglk qul jcqunlrjk uk ojrgjcd gjrgtlr suailtnvd d lodgndkjf. Lstl gjrgtlr slpfjsoj lk sntujgndkls tjfls gdod lf grlgnonlktd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd cl uk pjs (snkodcnbngjr knkmk pjroltrd bnkjkgnlrd-lgdkongd clf onsod) clancd j gjusjs gdodqul uk lstjcd vlgnkd ej nkgurrncd lk nopjmds cl clucj d ukj sntujgnk afngj snkgdkslgulkgnjs jpjrlktls pjrj fj lgdkdoj clf pjs lonsdr. Lk ougejs dgjsndkls, fjgdlxnstlkgnj tlopdrjf cl vjrnds jgdktlgnonlktds cl cngej tnpdfdmj pulclk prdvdgjr

    qul fj prnoj cl rnlsmd cl uk pjs sl cnspjrl, gdk lf gdkslgulktl lblgtd adfj clknlvl qul sl gjusj lk fj gjpjgncjc bnkjkgnlrj cl cnged lstjcd.

    Lxnstnlkcd ukj nkbnkncjc cl pjroltrds qul jblgtjk j fj prnoj cl rnlsmd cl uk pjs,cnspdklods j lxpdklr fds snmunlktls gdod fds prnkgnpjfls gjusjktls cl fj lvdfugnkcl fj onsoj9

    Lstjanfncjc pdftngj cl fjs nkstntugndkls pafngjs cl uk pjs. Sjktd gjoandsjaruptds lk fds mdanlrkds, gdod gjsds cl gdrrupgnk d cl lstjanfncjcpdftngj jblgtjk cl ojklrj kdtjafl j fj prnoj cl rnlsmd. Fj lxnstlkgnj cl ukjpjrjtd aurdgrtngd lxglsnvjolktl mrjkcl cnsonkuyl fds nkglktnvds j

    nkvlrtnr lk lf pjs. Lf Prdcugtd Nktlrndr Arutd d PNA. Ls lf nkcngjcdr lgdkongd-bnkjkgnlrd pdr

    lxglflkgnj, yj qul ls uk olcncdr bnjafl cl fj gjpjgncjc prdcugtnvj clf pjs.Sjktd lf PNA jgtujf, gdod lf PNA prlvnstd pdr fjs nkstntugndkls pafngjsjblgtjk cl ukj ojklrj ouy kdtjafl j fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd.

    Fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm. Wl trjtj cl gdopjjs lsplgnjfnzjcjs lk fjsolcngndkls cl rnlsmds bnkjkgnlrds y cl nopjmds. Lkmfdajk lk s ukj mrjkslrnl cl olcncjs tjktd lgdkongjs gdod sdgnd-pdftngjs, pdkclrjkcd fjvjfdrjgnk cl fjs onsojs olcnjktl uk odclfd ojtlotngd. Pdr lffd rljfnzjkuk jkfnsns vlrcjclrjolktl gdopfltd cl fj gjfncjc grlcntngnj clf pjs.

    Fds knvlfls cl clucj pafngj nktlrkj y lxtlrkj9 Oncl fj gjktncjc clbnkjkgnjgnk pafngj clf lstjcd lspjdf. J os clucj pafngj, os rnlsmdpjrj fds nkvlrsdrls.

    http://www.zonaeconomica.com/http://www.zonaeconomica.com/http://www.zonaeconomica.com/http://www.zonaeconomica.com/
  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    17/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -::-

    Fj nkbfjgnk. Ls dtrj vjrnjafl gujktnbngjafl, yj qul supdkl cnrlgtjolktl ukjbulktl cl rnlsmd pjrj fds nkvlrsdrls, fds gujfls nkgfuylk lk sus lstrjtlmnjscl rnlsmd y cl dailtnvds fj jblgtjgnk cnrlgtj cl cngej vjrnjafl.

    Knvlfls jftds cl mjstd mualrkjolktjf noprdcugtnvd. Fds gujfls pulclknopfngjr ukj lxpjksnk odkltjrnj d uk cbngnt pafngd nkgdktrdfjcd.

    Lf pdrglktjil cl clslopfljcds. Cngej tjsj ls rlbflid cl9 fj gdyukturjlgdkongj qul jtrjvnlsj lf pjs, fj lbngjgnj cl fds nkglktnvds bnsgjfls j fjgdktrjtjgnk dbrlgncds pdr lf mdanlrkd, fj pdftngj cl gdktrjtjgnk cl fjsloprlsjs prlslktls lk lf pjs, fj lvdfugnk lgdkongj clf PNA, fj nkvlrsnklk lcugjgnk y lf gjpntjf euojkd jclos cl dtrds bjgtdrls cl rlfjtnvjnopdrtjkgnj. Cngej olzgfj cl vjrnjafls cl tjk cnstnktj kcdfl prdvdgjk qullf kolrd cl clslopfljcds cl uk pjs fflmul j slr uk gdkglptd rlflvjktl jlstucnjr pdr pjrtl cl fds nkvlrsdrls lk clucj pafngj.

    Bjgtdrls suailtnvds d nktjkmnafls. Cngeds bjgtdrls jajrgjk ukj mrjkgjktncjc cl vjrnjafls qul prlslktjk ukj mrjk cnbnguftjc pjrj slr olcncjs lktronkds lgdkongds. Gdarjk ukj mrjk nopdrtjkgnj j fj edrj cl fj bnijgnkcl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd, yj qul sulflk tlklr uk mrjk nopjgtd sdarl fdsnkvlrsdrls cl clucj pafngj.

    Fjs 7 gjrjgtlrstngjs dailtd cl lstucnd lk lf prlslktl trjajid slrk9 Lf PNA, fjsjmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm d gjfnbngjgnk grlcntngnj y fjs vjrnjafls nktjkmnafls dslktnonlktd clf nkvlrsdr.

    1.7 NKBF\LKGNJ CL FJ PQNOJ CL QNLWMD LK FJW BJONFNJW

    Kds ajsjods, jpjrtl cl fjs bulktls jktls gntjcjs lk lf jrtgufd puafngjcd lk

    lfpjns.gdotntufjcd Plrd lk qu kds jblgtj fj cngedsj prnoj cl rnlsmd4.Jukqul pulcj pjrlglr ukj vjrnjafl ojgrdlgdkongj snk rlplrgusnk os qul

    pjrj fj bnkjkgnjgnk pafngj cl clucj sdalrjkj, fj rljfncjc ls anlk cnstnktj. Lstd slclal j qul lf gdstl clf adkd lspjdf snrvl cl rlblrlkgnj pjrj lf gdstl cl fj clucj clfjs loprlsjs lspjdfjs. Gjcj vlz qul ajij fj prnoj cl rnlsmd y lf gdstl cl fj clucjlspjdfj sl rlajij, sl grlj uk lblgtd bjvdrjafl pjrj fjs loprlsjs lspjdfjs, jfsujvnzjrsl lf prlgnd cl su bnkjkgnjgnk.

    Kdrojfolktl fjs gdopjjs pjmjk uk sdarlgdstl gdk rlsplgtd jf prlgnd cl fjclucj clf Slsdrd Pafngd (su prdpnj prnoj cl rnlsmd gdk rlsplgtd jf adkd lspjdf j:0 jds). Wnk loajrmd, pdclods daslrvjr dgjsndkls lk fjs qul loprlsjs kjgndkjflssl bnkjkgnjk j uk gdstl olkdr qul fj bnijcj pdr fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj. Cnged

    lblgtd sl prdcugl lk fj gdfdgjgnk cl clucj pdr pjrtl cl mrjkcls bnrojs(kdrojfolktl plrtlklgnlktls jf kcngl aurstnf NALU 7

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    18/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -:1-

    cl fjs loprlsjs y Lstjcd, fd qul lk tldrj cnkjonzjrj fj nkvlrsnk y lf grlgnonlktdlgdkongd.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    19/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -:7-

    GJPS\FD 7

    JMLKGNJW GJFNBNGJCDQJW CL QNLWMD

    (JMLKGNJW CL QJSNKM)

    7.: NKSQDC\GGNK

    Lk fj rljfnzjgnk cl cnged trjajid sl tdrkj klglsjrnd jadrcjr lf gdkglptd cl jmlkgnjscl rjtnkm d cl gjfnbngjgnk clf rnlsmd. Ajskcdkds lk lf cnggndkjrnd lgdkongd clfcnjrnd lxpjksnk, fj wlawww.cjtdsojgrd.gdoy fds jpuktls cl snstlojs y olrgjcdsbnkjkgnlrds clf mrjcd lk bnkjkzjs y gdktjanfncjc lxpdklods lf prlslktl gjptufdjglrgj cl fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm.

    Fjs jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk sdk gdopjjs lsplgnjfnzjcjs lk lf jkfnsns cl rnlsmdsbnkjkgnlrds cl fds lonsdrls cl clucj. Fjs prnkgnpjfls sdk fjs ouftnkjgndkjflskdrtljolrngjkjs Oddcys Nkvlstdr Wlrvngl, Wtjkcjrc jkc Pddrs Gdrpdrjtndk y BntgeNAGJ. Lstjs loprlsjs sdk fjs jutdrjs cl fjs gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs d rjtnkms qul

    tjktd sl lopfljk lk fds olrgjcds cl gjpntjfls. Fjs puktujgndkls grlcntngnjsdtdrmjcjs j sus gfnlktls (lonsdrls cl clucj) rlspdkclk j cnvlrsjs pdkclrjgndklsajsjcjs lk grntlrnds lgdkongds, bnkjkgnlrds y sdgndpdftngds. Wus vlrlcngtds ygjfnbngjgndkls sulflk tlklr ukj mrjk rlflvjkgnj lk lf snstloj bnkjkgnlrd nktlrkjgndkjf,clancd j fj mrjk nkbfulkgnj qul lilrglk sdarl fjs clgnsndkls j tdojr cl tdcd tnpd clnkvlrsdrls, tjktd fds qul rljfnzjk dplrjgndkls ouftnonffdkjrnjs gdod fds plquldsnkvlrsdrls.

    \kj vlz gdoprlkcncd lf gdkglptd cl loprlsjs cl rjtnkm, js gdod subukgndkjfncjc y tdcds fds knvlfls ojgrdlgdkongds qul sl vlk nkbfulkgnjcds pdr fjsonsojs, kds glktrjrlods lk lf lstucnd cl sus lblgtds (cnrlgtds l nkcnrlgtds) sdarl fjprnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj.

    7.1 JKSLGLCLKSLW ^ GDKGLPSD

    Jpdykcdkds lk lf jrtgufd jglrgj clf pjplf cl fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm curjktl fj grnsnscl fj wla oukcdtrjcnkm.klt, lf jrtgufd cl Qjonrd Fdsjcj puafngjcd pdr fj GKORJmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm, ejgnj ukj kulvj rlmufjgnk, lf jrtgufd cl fj Qlvnstj Lurdplj clCnrlggnk y Lgdkdoj cl fj Loprlsj Cd gejkmls nk clat rjtnkm ejvl lbblgts dk telrnsh db tel nssulrs4 jclos cl fjs bulktls gntjcjs gdk jktlrndrncjc lk lf prlslktlgjptufd lxpdklods fds gdonlkzds y lf gdkglptd cl cngejs jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk.

    Fjs jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk tnlklk su drnmlk lk lf jd :>0> fnmjcjs j fj

    nopfjktjgnk clf blrrdgjrrnf lk Lstjcds \kncds. Wu bnkjfncjc lrj jslsdrjr j fdsnkvlrsdrls sdarl qul loprlsjs prlslktjajk olidrls cjtds lgdkongds y bnkjkgnlrdsy slrvnr cl muj nkbdrokcdfls cl gujfls lstjajk lk olidrls gdkcngndkls pjrjclvdfvlr fj gjktncjc prlstjcj. Lf trjajid qul rljfnzjk edy lk cj, prnkgnpjfolktl clgjfnbngjgnk cl clucj sdalrjkj y cl mrjkcls loprlsjs bul uk prdglsd kjturjf j pjrtnrclf jktlrndr, pjrj nkbdrojr y jcvlrtnr j fds nkvlrsdrls sdarl fj gjfncjc cl fds jgtnvdscdkcl lstk clpdsntjkcd su gjpntjf.

    Fds prnkgnpjfls gfnlktls cl fjs jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk sdk fds lonsdrls cl clucj yvjfdrls bnkjkgnlrds lk mlklrjf, gdod ls lf gjsd cl clucj sdalrjkj cl pjsls,gdoukncjcls jutkdojs, ltg8 y fjs mrjkcls loprlsjs l nkvlrsdrls nkstntugndkjfls.Cngejs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm sl ojktnlklk mrjgnjs j fds nkmrlsds qul prdvnlklk cl fds

    susgrnptdrls cl sus puafngjgndkls y cl fjs lktncjcls qul pnclk sus slrvngnds clgjfnbngjgnk cl clucj, yj sljk pafngds d prnvjcds.

    http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.mundotrading.net/http://www.mundotrading.net/http://www.mundotrading.net/http://www.datosmacro.com/
  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    20/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -:3-

    Gdk fj grnsns lgdkongj y bnkjkgnlrj qul lstjff lk lf jd 1005, sl ej vlkncdgulstndkjkcd lf pjplf cl lstjs jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk, jukqul snmulk tlknlkcd ukpjplf ouy clstjgjcd lk dplrjgndkls bnkjkgnlrjs gdod fj lonsnk cl clucj cl pjslsd mrjkcls loprlsjs. Wn su bukgnk ls ausgjr fj trjkspjrlkgnj cl fds lonsdrls clclucj l nkbdrojr j nkvlrsdrls sdarl jgtnvds, pdr qu sl gulstndkj su bukgndkjfncjc4Lstl suglsd sl clal prnkgnpjfolktl j su ojklrj cl bnkjkgnjgnk, pjrtl pafngj y pjrtlprnvjcj. Lstj vj cl bnkjkgnjgnk pulcl gulstndkjr fj bnjanfncjc cl fds nkbdrols

    rljfnzjcds sdarl sus prnkgnpjfls gfnlktls. Ls pdr lffd qul su rlmufjgnk sl ejlkcurlgncd ftnojolktl clscl Lstjcds \kncds gdk NDWGD (Nktlrkjtndkjf Drmjknzjtndkdb Wlgurntnls Gdoonssndks ), lk 1007 y lk 1002 KQWQD (Kjtndkjffy QlgdmknzlcWtjtnstngjf Qjtnkm Drmjknzjtndks), jcdpt fj fly cl rlbdroj pjrj fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm.Jclos lk fds ftnods jds sl ejk jprdajcd fj Fly Dcc-Bjkh lk Lstjcds \kncds yAjsnflj NNN pjrj rlbdrzjr tjktd lf slgtdr bnkjkgnlrd gdod lkcurlglr fds rlqunsntdsoknods pjrj lvntjr ukj sntujgnk cl gdfjpsd y gdktjmnd gdod fj cl fj ftnoj grnsnsbnkjkgnlrj.

    Jk lxnstnlkcd cnblrlktls dpnkndkls sdarl fj nopjrgnjfncjc cl cngejs jmlkgnjs clrjtnkm, fj glrtlzj ls qul fjs rlgdolkcjgndkls dtdrmjcjs pdr fjs onsojs, rlspdkclk juk jkfnsns lgdkongd y bnkjkgnlrd rljf, ajsjcd lk cnblrlktls rjtnds gdk ukj slrnl cl

    pdkclrjgndkls dtdrmjcjs slmk su nopdrtjkgnj pjrj fj lgdkdoj clf lonsdr cl fjclucj. Cngejs pdkclrjgndkls sl nkgfuylk lk uk odclfd ojtlotngd qul clspus grljuk rlsuftjcd os dailtnvd y tgkngd. Wjalods qul fds odclfds ojtlotngds sdkojklrjs cl rlprlslktjr suglsds lgdkongds y pdftngds cl uk pjs. Fj glrtlzj d lfbjffd cl fds odclfds ojtlotngds dtdrmj uk mrjcd cl prlgnsnk gdk lf qul slrlprlslktj fj rljfncjc lgdkongj-bnkjkgnlrj clf lonsdr. Pdr fd tjktd sl rlgejzj fjjbnrojgnk qul cngl qul tdcd fd qul rdclj jf clkdonkjcd rnlsmd pjs ls olrjolktllsplgufjtnvd, jf rljfnzjr fj jpfngjgnk cl cngeds odclfds ojtlotngds

    Pjrj fds lonsdrls cl clucj lf pjmd cl fj tjrnbj j fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm ls uk mjstdcl nkvlrsnk, yj qul ukj aulkj gjfnbngjgnk fls plrontl rlcugnr lf tnpd cl nktlrs, jfgdopdrtjr uk olkdr rnlsmd. Pdr dtrj pjrtl, sn lf rlsuftjcd cl fj gjfnbngjgnk kd ej sncd

    lf lsplrjcd, lf lonsdr pulcl prdenanr su puafngjgnk, fd qul slsmjrj fj nkbdrojgnk ytrjkspjrlkgnj rlgnancj pdr lf nkvlrsdr.

    \kj gjrjgtlrstngj snmknbngjtnvj cl lstl slgtdr qul jk snmul ojktlknkcdsl ls qullf olrgjcd cl gfjsnbngjgnk cl jgtnvds lst cdonkjcd pdr 7 mrjkcls loprlsjs, (slmkfd lxtrjcd clf cnggndkjrnd lgdkongd clf cnjrnd Lxpjksnk, lk fj lktrjcj cl jmlkgnjscl gjfnbngjgnk, lf gujf utnfnzjrlods pjrj tdcd lf clsjrrdffd clf lpmrjbl 7.1,) (Sel anmSerll), fjs gujfls sl rlpjrtlk lf olrgjcd cl fj snmunlktl ojklrj9 Wtjkcjrc & PddrsGdrpdrjtndk (30% cl gudtj cl olrgjcd), OddcysNkvlstdr Wlrvngl (30%) y, fj osplqulj, Bntge Qjtnkms (:0> yjcqunrncj lk :>21 pdr Cuks & Arjcstllc, loprlsj cl nopfjktjgnk oukcnjf clcngjcjj fj nkbdrojgnk bnkjkgnlrj. Oddcys jarn sus dbngnkjs cl Ojcrnc lk :>>7, trjs fjjprdajgnk cl fj Fly :>/:>>1, cl = cl iufnd, sdarl Bdkcds cl Sntufnzjgnk Enpdtlgjrnjlk Lspjj, plrd su gdalrturj cl fds lonsdrls lspjdfls cjtj cl :>5=, gujkcd gjfnbngpdr prnolrj vlz jf jktnmud Ajkgd Glktrjf (Wjktjkclr Glktrjf Enspjkd). Edy lkcj Oddcys gjfnbngj lk Lspjj j 10 loprlsjs, 7: lktncjcls bnkjkgnlrjs, :3 mdanlrkdsglktrjfls, rlmndkjfls y fdgjfls y 1 gdopjjs cl slmurds.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    21/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -:

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    22/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -:2-

    Jf trjtjrsl cl ukj nkcustrnj gdk uk kolrd rlcugncd cl jmlkgnjs dplrjkcd lk fdsolrgjcds sl pulcl dgjsndkjr ukj slrnl cl gdkslgulkgnjs pjrj lf anlklstjr sdgnjf,tjktd j gdrtd gdod j fjrmd pfjzd. Lk lf gdrtd pfjzd, fj bjftj cl gdopltlkgnj sl trjcugllk qul fjs jmlkgnjs gjrmjk prlgnds pdr lkgnoj cl sus gdstls ojrmnkjfls, fd qul slpulcl trjcugnr lk uk clsglksd lk fj gjktncjc cl rjtnkms qul sl suonknstrj jf olrgjcd.Pjrj lf fjrmd pfjzd sl clal pfjktljr sn fjs jmlkgnjs tnlklk subngnlktls nkglktnvds pjrjfj nkkdvjgnk. Gdk fj nkgfusnk cl kulvds prdcugtds bnkjkgnlrds lk lf olrgjcd sl

    clalk jclgujr j uk rntod jclgujcd kulvjs tlgkdfdmjs qul olidrlk lf gfgufd cl fdsrnlsmds cl fds onsods.

    Lf rjtnkm ej jcqunrncd ukj nopdrtjkgnj gdksnclrjafl lk fds ftnods jds gdodgdkslgulkgnj cl fj mfdajfnzjgnk cl fds olrgjcds j knvlf oukcnjf, fjclsnktlrolcnjgnk y tntufnzjgnk cl fds grcntds y lf juml cl fds olrgjcdsnktlrkjgndkjfls, plrd tjoank j knvlf cdostngd d kjgndkjf lf rjtnkm gdarj nopdrtjkgnjtjktd pjrj nkvlrsdrls nkstntugndkjfls gdod pjrtngufjrls, cjcj fj lxpjksnk y cnvlrsncjccl fds olrgjcds bnkjkgnlrds y lf nkgrlolktd cl fj lsplgufjgnk gdk fj jpjrngnk clprdcugtds nkkdvjcdrls y uk juolktd cl fds lonsdrls, guyj gjfnbngjgnk cl rnlsmdrlsuftj ajstjktl gdopflij.

    Lk gujfqunlr gjsd, fj lfjadrjgnk cl rjtnkms nopfngj fj datlkgnk cl uk vdfuolkouy jprlgnjafl cl nkbdrojgnk lgdkongd-bnkjkgnlrj sdarl fj sdgnlcjc y fds prdylgtdscl bnkjkgnjgnk, js gdod sdarl gujfqunlr jsplgtd cl su lktdrkd qul, cl gujfqunlrbdroj, pulcj jblgtjr j su sdfvlkgnj. Kjturjfolktl, gujktd ojydr slj lf pfjzd cl fjclucj j gjfnbngjr, ojydr vdfuolk cl nkbdrojgnk ejar qul jkjfnzjr, gdktrjstjr ylvjfujr, y pdr lsd rlsuftj os bgnf cjr ukj gjfnbngjgnk pjrj ukj clucj j gdrtd qul jfjrmd pfjzd, fd qul nkbfuyl tjoank lk fj clgnsnk cl fds lonsdrls j fj edrj cl sdfngntjruk rjtnkm.

    7.3 OLSDCDFDMJ CL FJW JMLKGNJW CL QJSNKM

    Lk mlklrjf, fjs prnkgnpjfls jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm usjk ukj oltdcdfdmj snonfjr pjrjjkjfnzjr pjsls, ajsjcd lk lf lstucnd y gujktnbngjgnk cl vjrnds gdkglptds d jsplgtdsprnkgnpjfls9 pdftngj, lgdkdoj, sdfvlkgnj y fnqunclz, lktrl dtrds.

    Cl fds gujtrd jsplgtds j jkjfnzjr kdoarjcds jktlrndrolktl lf qul jcqunlrl ukjojydr rlflvjkgnj ls lf jkfnsns pdftngd. Ls ouy nopdrtjktl glrtnbngjr qul lf lqunpd clmdanlrkd clf pjs tnlkl fjs gjpjgncjcls cl mlstnk jclgujcjs, yj qul lk gjsdgdktrjrnd rlsuftjrj lk uk rlsuftjcd klmjtnvd l nkolcnjtd clancd jf plsd tjk nopdrtjktlqul dgupjk cngeds gjrmds pjrj lf anlklstjr lgdkongd y bnkjkgnlrd cl uk pjs. Fdsbjgtdrls qul sl jkjfnzjk rlfjgndkjcds gdk lf nkcngjcdr pdftngd sdk rnlsmds clrnvjcdscl fj nklstjanfncjc pdftngj, gdrrupgnk, fj lxnstlkgnj y lblgtds cl cltlronkjcds mrupdscl prlsnk y lf lblgtd pdtlkgnjf cl drmjknzjgndkls nktlrkjgndkjfls lk fj clbnkngnk cl

    fjs pdftngjs kjgndkjfls.Srjs rljfnzjr uk lstucnd pjrj lf nkcngjcdr pdftngd sl pjsj jf slmukcd os

    nopdrtjktl, jqulf rlblrncd j rjtnds lgdkongds. Lf lstucnd cl cnged jpjrtjcd gdonlkzjjkjfnzjkcd fjs rlfjgndkls ouftnfjtlrjfls gdk nkstntugndkls nktlrkjgndkjfls (BON, \L,\KCP, ltg.) y fj jpfngjgnk cl fjs dpnkndkls y rlgdolkcjgndkls cl fjs onsojs pjrjolidrjr fj lsglkj lgdkongj mfdajf clf pjs. Pdstlrndrolktl fj lvjfujgnk sl lkbdgjlk fds prnkgnpjfls nkcngjcdrls ojgrdlgdkongds. Jfmukds cl lstds nkcngjcdrls sdk9fjs pdftngjs lgdkongjs y bnsgjfls, fj tjsj cl pjrd, fj nkbfjgnk, lf knvlf cllkclucjonlktd, fj lstrugturj clf snstloj bnkjkgnlrd, lf lqunfnarnd cl fj ajfjkzj clpjmds, fj lxnstlkgnj cl nkbrjlstrugturjs lbngnlktls, ltg.

    Fflmjods jf jkfnsns cl fj sdfvlkgnj, lf gujf lst rlblrncd j fj gjpjgncjc cl rljfnzjr

    lf pjmd cl fds adkds j :0 jds. Wl lkgulktrj bdrojcd pdr ukj slrnl cl sua-rjtndsgdod sdk9 lf rjtnd clf knvlf cl clucj, fj lstrugturj cl fj onsoj, fj clprlgnjgnk yclvjfujgnk cl fj odklcj, ltg.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    23/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -:=-

    Lf jkfnsns cl fnqunclz cl uk pjs rlprlslktj fj gjpjgncjc cl rljfnzjr lf pjmd cl fjsclucjs j gdrtd pfjzd (j gnkgd jds clf odolktd prlslktl). Wl utnfnzjk pjrj su lstucndukj slrnl cl sua-rjtnds gdod sdk9 rlslrvjs odkltjrnjs/nopdrtjgndkls olksujfls, rjtndcl lkclucjonlktd/lxpdrtjgndkls, rlbnkjkgnjgnk cl clucjs j gdrtd pfjzd,gdopdrtjonlktd cl fj ajfjkzj cl pjmds, ltg.

    Gdod sl ej olkgndkjcd jktlrndrolktl, gjcj loprlsj cl rjtnkm utnfnzj ukj slrnl cl

    grntlrnds y pdkclrjgndkls j fj edrj cl vjfdrjr fds lstucnds rljfnzjcds sdarl fds gujtrdjsplgtds prnkgnpjfls cl jkfnsns. Gdk fj lstrugturjgnk clf odclfd ojtlotngdprdpulstd pdr fj jmlkgnj lk gulstnk sl pjsj j vjfdrjr lf rnlsmd mfdajf, bdrojcd pdruk mrupd cl gdkglptds rlfjtnvds j fds mrupds cl pdftngj, lgdkdoj, sdfvlkgnj yfnqunclz.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    24/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -:5-

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    25/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -:>-

    GJPS\FD 3

    PNA

    3.: NKSQDC\GGNK

    Lk lf lktdrkd clf prlslktl trjajid ls klglsjrnd lxpfngjr fj trjsglkclkgnj qul tnlkl lfPrdcugtd Nktlrndr Arutd pjrj fjs olcngndkls ojgrdlgdkongjs cl fds pjsls,lsplgnjfolktl lk pdgjs cl grnsns gdod fj jgtujf. Lf knvlf clf PNA d cl fj tjsj clgrlgnonlktd clf onsod ls uk cjtd dailtnvd qul nkbfuyl cl ojklrj cnrlgtj lk nkbnkncjccl vjrnjafls lgdkongjs rlfjtnvjs tjktd j pjsls, mrjkcls loprlsjs d lgdkdojsbjonfnjrls yj qul ls rlbflid cl fj jgtnvncjc nktlrkj clf prdpnd pjs. \kj vlzgdoprlkcncd lf gdkglptd cl Prdcugtd Nktlrndr Arutd kds glktrjrlods lk lf lstucnd clsu rlfjgnk gdk fj Prnoj cl Qnlsmd Lspjdfj. Clsjrrdffjods lf prlslktl gjptufdajskcdkds lk lf jpjrtjcd rlblrlktl jf PNA cl fj wla www.cjtdsojgrd.gdo, lftrjajid bnk cl mrjcd cl Blrkjkcd Blrnj Ojrtk tntufjcd Fj prnoj cl rnlsmd y sulvdfugnk lk Lspjj, Ntjfnj y Mrlgnj, fds jpuktls cl nktrdcuggnk j fj lgdkdoj clfmrjcd lk bnkjkzjs y gdktjanfncjc, fj wlawww.pna.gdo.lsy

    3.1 JKSLGLCLKSLW

    Lf lgdkdonstj rusd-lstjcduknclksl Wnodk Huzklts (:>0:-:>521 y jktl lf gdkmrlsd cl fds LL\\ clgfjr9

    Ejy qul tlklr lk gulktj fjs cnblrlkgnjs lktrl gjktncjc y gjfncjc clf grlgnonlktd,lktrl sus gdstls y sus alklbngnds y lktrl lf pfjzd gdrtd y lf fjrmd. X..._ Fds dailtnvds cl

    "os" grlgnonlktd clalrjk lsplgnbngjr cl qu y pjrj quHuzklts y sus jpdrtjgndkls lk ojgrdlgdkdoj fd fflvjrdk j mjkjr lf Prlond Kdalf

    cl Lgdkdoj, lk :>=:, pdr sus fjadrls lk lf lstucnd clf grlgnonlktd lgdkongd. Ournlk :>5

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    26/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -10-

    tjktd, clktrd cl anlkls y slrvngnds bnkjfls sl nkgfuylk jqulffds prdcugncds lk lfplrndcd qul, pdr su prdpnj kjturjflzj, kd sl vjk j nktlmrjr lk knkmk dtrd prdglsd clprdcuggnk, js gdod jqulffds dtrds anlkls qul kd ejk fflmjcd j nktlmrjrsl lk lfprdglsd prdcugtnvd j bnkjf clf lilrgngnd jukqul lstjajk clstnkjcds j lffd (fjsclkdonkjcjs lxnstlkgnjs bnkjfls).

    Fj utnfncjc y bnjanfncjc clf PNA gdod vjrnjafl ojgrdlgdkongj y olcncj dailtnvj cl

    gnlrtds nkcngjcdrls bnkjkgnlrds y lgdkongds lst bulrj cl tdcj cucj. Kd dastjktl,lxnstlk fnontjgndkls jf usd clf PNA. Jclos cl jiustls klglsjrnds pjrj olcnr fjlgdkdoj suolrmncj, lf nopjgtd sdgnjf d lgdfmngd cl cnvlrsjs jgtnvncjcls pulcl slrnopdrtjktl y klglsjrnd pjrj fd qul sl lst lstucnjkcd, jukqul kd lst rlgdmncd lk lfPNA. Lxnstlk cnvlrsjs olcncjs jftlrkjtnvjs jf PNA qul pulclk slr tnfls pjrjcltlronkjcjs gdopjrjgndkls y lstucnds, plrd qul qulcjk bulrj clf jfgjkgl clfprlslktl trjajid.

    Lf gfgufd clf PNA ls ukj tjrlj ajstjktl gdopflij, l nkgfusd pdcrjods clgnr qulsuailtnvj, yj qul lk bukgnk cl fds pjroltrds qul nkgfuyjods fds rlsuftjcds pdcrjkcnblrnr. Lxnstlk vjrnds odclfds pjrj lf gfgufd clf onsod9

    Otdcd clf mjstd9 Lk lf otdcd clf mjstd, lf PNA sl oncl suojkcd tdcjs fjs

    clojkcjs bnkjfls cl anlkls y slrvngnds lk uk plrdcd cjcd. Lk lstl gjsd sl lstgujktnbngjkcd lf clstnkd cl fj prdcuggnk. Lxnstlk gujtrd mrjkcls rljs cl mjstd9 lfgdksuod cl fjs bjonfnjs (G), lf gdksuod clf mdanlrkd (M), fj nkvlrsnk lk kulvdgjpntjf (N) y fds rlsuftjcds kltds clf gdolrgnd lxtlrndr (lxpdrtjgndkls - nopdrtjgndkls).

    Otdcd cl fj cnstrnaugnk d lf nkmrlsd9 Lstl otdcd suoj fds nkmrlsds cl tdcds fdsbjgtdrls qul gdktrnauylk jf prdglsd prdcugtnvd, gdod pdr lilopfd, sulfcds y sjfjrnds,gdonsndkls, jfqunflrls, clrlgeds cl jutdr, edkdrjrnds, nktlrlsls, utnfncjcls, ltg. Lf PNAls lf rlsuftjcd clf gfgufd pdr olcnd clf pjmd j fds bjgtdrls cl fj prdcuggnk.

    Otdcd cl fj dblrtj d clf vjfdr jmrlmjcd d jjcncd9 Lk tronkds mlklrjfls, lf vjfdrjmrlmjcd d vjfdr jjcncd, ls lf vjfdr cl olrgjcd clf prdcugtd lk gjcj ltjpj cl suprdcuggnk, olkds lf vjfdr cl olrgjcd cl fds nksuods utnfnzjcds pjrj datlklr cnged

    prdcugtd8 ls clgnr, qul lf PNA sl gujktnbngj j trjvs clf jpdrtl kltd cl gjcj slgtdr clfj lgdkdoj.

    Lk fkljs mlklrjfls sl sulfl slmunr lf otdcd clf mjstdpjrj gjfgufjr lf PrdcugtdNktlrndr Arutd9

    Bnmurj 3.:. Gfgufd clf PNA. Bulktl9jojzdkjws.gdo

    Fj tjsj cl grlgnonlktd tjktd clf PNA, gdod clf PNA plr gpntj sl lxprlsjkdrojfolktl lk tronkds rljfls, ls clgnr, clsgdktjkcd lf lblgtd cl fj vjrnjgnk cl fdsprlgnds. Cnstnkmunods lktrl PNA rljf y PNA kdonkjf

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    27/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -1:-

    PNA kdonkjf9 ls lf vjfdr odkltjrnd cl tdcds fds anlkls y slrvngnds qul prdcugl ukpjs d lgdkdoj j prlgnds gdrrnlktls lk lf jd lk qul fds anlkls sdk prdcugncds. Jflstucnjr fj lvdfugnk clf PNA j fd fjrmd clf tnlopd, lk sntujgndkls cl nkbfjgnk jftj, ukjuolktd sustjkgnjf cl prlgnds jk gujkcd fj prdcuggnk plrojklzgj gdkstjktl -,pulcl cjr gdod rlsuftjcd uk juolktd sustjkgnjf clf PNA, odtnvjcd lxgfusnvjolktlpdr lf juolktd cl fds prlgnds.

    PNA rljf9 sl clbnkl gdod lf vjfdr odkltjrnd cl tdcds fds anlkls y slrvngndsprdcugncds pdr uk pjs d ukj lgdkdoj vjfdrjcds j prlgnds gdkstjktls, ls clgnr,slmk fds prlgnds clf jd qul sl tdoj gdod ajsl d lk fjs gdopjrjgndkls. Lstlgfgufd sl fflvj j gjad olcnjktl lf clbfjgtdr clf PNA, slmk lf kcngl lnkbfjgnk (danlk gdoputjkcd lf vjfdr cl fds anlkls gdk nkclplkclkgnj clf jd cl prdcuggnkolcnjktl fds prlgnds cl uk gnlrtd jd cl rlblrlkgnj).

    Pjrj rljfnzjr lf gfgufd cl fj tjsj cl vjrnjgnk clf PNA sl utnfnzj usujfolktl lf PNArljf, yj qul js sl pulcl olcnr lf grlgnonlktd rljf cl fj lgdkdoj clijkcd j uk fjcdfds lblgtds nkbfjgndknstjs d clbfjgndknstjs. Fj tjsj cl vjrnjgnk clf prdcugtd nktlrkdarutd ls lf nkgrlolktd d cnsonkugnk qul stl lxplrnolktj lk uk plrndcd cl tnlopdcltlronkjcd, kdrojfolktl uk jd. Wl utnfnzj pjrj olcnr lf grlgnonlktd lgdkongd cluk pjs. Ls lf gdgnlktl lktrl lf PNA clf jd k y lf PNA clf jd (k-:) lxprlsjcd lkpdrglktjil. Fj tjsj cl vjrnjgnk lk jd k (%) tjsj kltj vnlkl cjcj pdr9

    Bnmurj 3.1. Sjsj cl grlgnonlktd clf PNA. Bulktl9 jojzdkjws.gdo

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    28/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -11-

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    29/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -17-

    GJPS\FD /10:0, gujkcd fj grnsns loplzjaj j gjstnmjr j Lspjj gdk gruclzj, ejstj fjgjfnbngjgnk Ajj7 (lk rlvnsnk) lf :7/02/10:1, lsgjsjs idrkjcjs jktls cl fj grnsns clclucj y cl grlgnonlktd clsolsurjcd cl fj gnbrj cl prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj.

    Bnmurj 2.1. Gjfnbngjgnk Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs Bulktl9 Lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Gdoprdajods gdk fds cjtds jkjfnzjcds qul W&P aji fj gjfnbngjgnk clscl fjJJ(klmjtnvj) ejstj AAA+(klmjtnvj) lk uk plrdcd gdoprlkcncd lk uk jd, snlkcd fjos glrgjkj j fj blgej cl lstucnd fj clf 12/03/10:1. Jk js, sl pulcl daslrvjr qul

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    33/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -1=-

    gdktnkj fj tlkclkgnj j fj ajij ejstj lf :0/:0/10:1, cdkcl daslrvjods uk puktd clnkbflxnk lk fj tlkclkgnj cl fjs gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs.

    Bnmurj 2.7. Gjfnbngjgnk Bntge Bulktl9 Lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Bntge sl clstjgj gdod fj jmlkgnj os jgtnvj lk gujktd j gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjscl fj clucj sdalrjkj lspjdfj. Gdoprdajods qul sl pdsngndkj lk fj onsojtlkclkgnj qul fjs dtrjs cds jmlkgnjs, pjsjkcd cl fj gjfnbngjgnk JJJ(lstjafl) jAAA(klmjtnvj) blgejs jktls clf oxnod enstrngd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj.

    Jkjfnzjkcd fds cjtds daslrvjods qul fjs trls jmlkgnjs gdnkgnclk lk gjfnbngjr gdod

    lf pldr odolktd cl fj clucj sdalrjkj lspjdfj jf slmukcd slolstrl clf jd 10:1,lxnstnlkcd lk cnged odolktd uk gfjrd puktd cl nkbflxnk. ^j vnods lk lf gjptufd 7 lfprdtdgdfd j rljfnzjr pdr fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm, pdkclrjkcd vjrnjaflsojgrdlgdkongjs, pdftngjs, sdgnjfls y bnkjkgnlrjs. Jukqul lxnstjk cnblrlktlsjfmdrntods slmk fj jmlkgnj qul rljfngl lf lstucnd, sl pulcl jbnrojr qul cnged plrdcdbul lf os clsbjvdrjafl pjrj fj clucj lspjdfj slmk lf jkfnsns cl fjs prnkgnpjflsvjrnjafls gujktnbngjafls.

    2.:.7. WNS\JGNK WDGND-PDFSNGJ

    Wlmk cjtds cl fj LPJ (Lkgulstj cl Pdafjgnk Jgtnvj) puafngjcj lk fj wla clf NKL(Nkstntutd Kjgndkjf cl Lstjcstngj), lk iufnd cl 10:1 lxnstj lk Lspjj ukj mrjvlgdyukturj fjadrjf qul sl gnbrjaj lk lf 1

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    34/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -15-

    Bnmurj 2.3. Pjrd lk Lspjj Bulktl9 cjtdsojgrd.gdo

    Fj mrjvl bjsl qul vnvj lf olrgjcd fjadrjf gdktnku tlknlkcd ukj tlkclkgnjclsbjvdrjafl ejstj olcnjcds cl 10:7, cdkcl pdclods daslrvjr uk plquld puktd clnkbflxnk qul jrrdij fuz jf bnkjf clf tklf. Brutd clf clslqunfnarnd lxnstlktl lktrl dblrtj yclojkcj lk lf olrgjcd cl trjajid, sl prjgtng brlgulktlolktl fj prlgjrnlcjc fjadrjf,gdk ajijcj mlklrjfnzjcj cl sjfjrnds.

    Lf cbngnt pafngd plrtlklgnlktl jf jd 10:1, slmk fj wla www.cjtdsojgrd.gdoywww.clbnkngndkjag.gdo/lgdkdonj, sl sntujaj lk -:05.>07 O, fd qul rlprlslktj uk:0,70% clf PNA. Cngej gnbrj ls ukj olcncj lgdkongj y bnkjkgnlrj qul rlprlslktjpjrj fj jconknstrjgnk pafngj lspjdfj fds mjstds d cantds qul suplrjk j fdsnkmrlsds d grcntds pafngds.

    Lk fj fklj qul snmulk fj wla cl lgdkdoj cl lf plrncngd Lf Pjs y clf plrncngd10 onkutds lf tlodr j qul Lspjj kd bulsl gjpjz cl sjfnr jclfjktl snk fj jyucj clfAjkgd Glktrjf Lurdpld (AGL) y sl vnlrj jadgjcj j uk rlsgjtl, ukncd j fjnkglrtncuoarl grljcj trjs fds jkukgnds cl qul fj Gdoukncjc Rjflkgnjkj y Ourgnjtlkcrjk qul jgdmlrsl jf bdkcd cl fnqunclz jutdkongd y cl qul fj Mlklrjfntjt clGjtjfuj sl lkgdktrjaj lstucnjkcd fjs gdkcngndkls cl cnged bdkcd jgrlglktjrdk fjclsgdkbnjkzj cl fds olrgjcds, ejgnlkcd gjlr lf NALU 7< pdr clajid cl fds 2.000puktds, j knvlfls clf jd 1007. Fjs prlvnsndkls cl mjstd grlgjk ejstj uk >,1%,juolktd qul gdktrjstjaj gdk fj klglsncjc urmlktl cl rlcuggnk cl cbngnt pafngd,slmk lf onknstrd cl Ejgnlkcj y Jconknstrjgndkls pafngjs, lrj gdkslgulkgnj clfnkgrlolktd cl fds nktlrlsls cl fj clucj y lf juolktd cl fds gdstls cl fj WlmurncjcWdgnjf8 pdr lf jfzj cl fjs plksndkls y fjs prlstjgndkls.

    Wn anlk fds rlgdrtls jprdajcds pdr lf lilgutnvd clf jgtujf prlsnclktl clf mdanlrkd,

    gdkvjfncjcds lf :> cl Iufnd cl 10:1 lk lf gdkmrlsd y lf jgulrcd bnrojcd pdr lfLurdmrupd lf 10 cl Iufnd cl 10:1, lf gujf mjrjktnzjaj uk bdkcd cl ejstj :00.000 Opjrj lf rlsgjtl cl fj ajkgj lspjdfj (gdk jvjf clf lstjcd lspjdf) kd gdkslmujkpjfnjr fj grnsns cl clucj lspjdfj, kn ontnmjr fds lblgtds clf grlgnonlktdclsprdpdrgndkjcd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd.

    2.1 WLQNLW SLOPDQJFLW

    Pjrj gdoprlkclr y lvjfujr fj tlkclkgnj y fj sntujgnk cl fjs prnkgnpjfls vjrnjaflsojgrdlgdkongjs ls klglsjrnd pfjsojr ukj suglsnk cl slrnls tlopdrjfls qul kdsjyuclk cl ojklrj mrbngj j jkjfnzjr fj gdyukturj cl grnsns lgdkongj y bnkjkgnlrjsubrncj pdr Lspjj lf cj 13 cl Iufnd cl 10:1. Fds cjtds sdk lxtrjcds cl fj wlawww.cjtdsojgrd.gdo.

    http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.definicionabc.com/economiahttp://www.definicionabc.com/economiahttp://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.datosmacro.com/http://www.definicionabc.com/economiahttp://www.datosmacro.com/
  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    35/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -1>-

    2.1.: PQNOJ CL QNLWMD

    \kj rlprlslktjgnk mfdajf cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd clscl lf jd 1005 jf10:3 kds jyucjr j gdoprlkclr su gdopdrtjonlktd curjktl fj tdtjfncjc cl fj grnsnslgdkongj.

    Bnmurj 2.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    36/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -70-

    Bnmurj 2.2. Prnoj cl rnlsmd 10:1 Bulktl9 cjtdsojgrd.gdo

    Glktrkcdkds lk fj blgej j jkjfnzjr, clstjgj lf cj 13 cl iufnd cl 10:1, tdgjkcd lfoxnod enstrngd cl 27= puktds cl prnoj cl rnlsmd sdarl lf adkd jflok. Jukqul lfcj 1< cl iufnd lf olrgjcd fflm j tdgjr vjfdrls suplrndrls j fds 230 puktds, glrr lfcj gdk 2:1 puktds, pdr fd qul kd fd gdksnclrjods gdod oxnod. Lf cj : cl ojrzdsl lkgulktrj lf oknod jkujf, lk lf qul fj prnoj glrr lf cj gdk lf vjfdr cl 70:puktds. J pjrtnr cl je daslrvjods god lf grlgnonlktd ls prgtngjolktl lxpdklkgnjf,yj qul lk < olsls fj gnbrj sl ouftnpfngj pdr cds. Clktrd cl lstl jd tjoank sldaslrvj fj bnmurj pnrjoncjf qul vljods lk lf plrdcd lktrl fds jds 1005 y 10:3, snanlk fj ajijcj cl prnoj kd ls tjk jglktujcj gdod fj mrjk plkcnlktl qul jpjrlgl lkfj suancj.

    2.1.1 PNA

    Fj lvdfugnk cl lstj vjrnjafl rlsuftj cl mrjk nopdrtjkgnj clancd j su rlflvjkgnj jvjrnds knvlfls, tjktd kjgndkjf gdod nktlrkjgndkjf, gdkvnrtnkcdsl lk ukj cl fjsolcncjs ojgrdlgdkongjs os bnjafls j fj edrj cl cltlronkjr lf rnlsmd pjs. Rlrgjptufd 3 PNA. Pdr lsd fdmrj ukj lsplgnjf rlflvjkgnj lk gujktd j fj cltlronkjgnk clfknvlf cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd cl fj clucj sdalrjkj cl Lspjj. J ojydr knvlf cl PNA, fjprnoj cl rnlsmd tnlkcl j cnsonkunr y vnglvlrsj.

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    37/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -7:-

    Bnmurj 2.=. Lvdfugnk PNA 100

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    38/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -71-

    gjfnbngjgndkls cl fjs trls, datlknlkcd ukds cjtds os gdopfltds y rlprlslktjtnvds.Kds rlblrnods j fjs jmlkgnjs Oddcys, Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs y Bntge.

    2.7.:.:. ODDC^W

    Bnmurj 2.5.Jkfnsns Oddcys Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Gdk fds cjtds lxtrjcds prdglclods j su jkfnsns slmk fd lxpulstd lk lf gjptufd :,lk lf lpmrjbl gdrrlspdkcnlktl j fj oltdcdfdmj. Daslrvjods qul Oddcys ej vjrnjcdfj gjfnbngjgnk cl fj clucj sdalrjkj lspjdfj ejstj lk = dgjsndkls curjktl lf plrdcd

    cl lstucnd, pdr fd qul cnspdklods cl cjtds pjrj rljfnzjr lf gfgufd lstjcstngd clfgdlbngnlktl cl gdrrlfjgnk y cl cltlronkjgnk pjrj vlr lk qul gjktncjc jblgtjk fdsrjtnkms cl cngej jmlkgnj j fj vjrnjgnk clf PNA.

    Bnmurj 2.>. Gdlbngnlktls Oddcys Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Lk lstl gjsd, fj rlfjgnk os rlprlslktjtnvj sl cj lk lf jkfnsns cl fds < cjs

    snmunlktls cl fj vjrnjgnk lk fj gjfnbngjgnk cl fjs jmlkgnjs, yj qul lf gdlbngnlktl clgdrrlfjgnk ls cl slktncd klmjtnvd, snlkcd cl -0,5, lstd qunlrlclgnr qul fj vjrnjgnk cl gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs pdr pjrtl cl fj jmlkgnj Oddcyslxpfngj ejstj lf 1>,5% cl fjs vjrnjgndkls cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lk fds < cjspdstlrndrls.

    Lf gjsd cl lstucnd j = cjs ls olkds rlprlslktjtnvd. Daslrvjods qul lfgdlbngnlktl cl gdrrlfjgnk ls tjoank cl snmkd klmjtnvd, plrd gdk uk vjfdr nkblrndr j sulqunvjflktl j < cjs.

    2.7.:.1. WSJKCJQC & PDDQW

    Bnmurj 2.:0.Jkfnsns Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnjLk lf gjsd cl Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs, sl ejk rljfnzjcd 2 gjfnbngjgndkls cl lonsndkls clclucj pafngj lspjdfj curjktl lf plrdcd cl lstucnd, kd dbrlgnlkcd vjrnjgndkls lk fj

    < cjs = cjs

    Gdlb gdr rlfjgnk -0,0

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    39/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -77-

    gjfnbngjgnk lk fj prnolrj cl lffjs, blgejcj lf 15/03/10::. Pdr fd tjktd cnspdklods clcjtds jglrgj cl < vjrnjgndkls cl gjfnbngjgnk gujktnbngjcjs, qul vjods j gdopjrjrfjsgdk sus rlfjtnvjs odcnbngjgndkls olcnjs cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd, tjktd j < cjs gdod j =cjs, gdksnmunlkcd js fj os rlprlslktjtnvj cl lstjs rlfjgndkls.

    Bnmurj 2.::. Gdlbngnlktls Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Jf nmujf qul lk lf lstucnd cl Oddcys fj rlfjgnk os rlprlslktjtnvj ls fj qul slrlbnlrl j fj olcnj cl fjs vjrnjgndkls cl prnoj cl rnlsmd j < cjs. Fj rlfjgnk vulfvl jslr cnrlgtj y cl slktncd dpulstd, gdk uk gdlbngnlktl cl gdrrlfjgnk cl -0,755, pucnlkcdlxpfngjr fj vjrnjgnk cl gjfnbngjgnk cl Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs lf :, pdr fd qul fjs

    vjrnjgndkls lk fj gjfnbngjgnk cl Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs sfd lxpfngjrjk lf 3,>% cl fjsvjrnjgndkls subrncjs pdr fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lk fds = cjs snmunlktls.

    2.7.:.7. BNSGE

    Fj jmlkgnj cl gjfnbngjgnk grlcntngnj Bntge sl oulstrj gdod fj os jgtnvj curjktl lfplrdcd cl grnsns dailtd cl lstucnd. Wn anlk fj onsoj ej rljfnzjcd uk tdtjf cl :1 rjtnkmssdarl lf rnlsmd pjs cl Lspjj.

    Bnmurj 2.:1.Jkfnsns Bntge Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Fj ojydr gjktncjc cl cjtds ejgl qul lf jkfnsns lstjcstngd cl fj rlfjgnk lktrl fjscds vjrnjafls tlkmj ukj ojydr bnjanfncjc y prdbukcncjc. Wnk loajrmd, fj prnoj clrnlsmd kd sl gdopdrtj lk dgjsndkls gdod ls cl lsplrjr. \k lilopfd fd pdclodsdaslrvjr lk lf rjtnkm cjcd lf 1=/0:/10:1. Lf rjtnkm vjrj ejstj sntujrsl lk J(klmjtnvj),fd qul snmknbngj qul Bntge ej ajijcd fj gjfnbngjgnk cl fj clucj lspjdfj lk cdslsgjfdkls (cl JJ- klmjtnvj ejstj J klmjtnvj). Qlsuftj ffjojtnvd lf gdopdrtjonlktd clfj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd j gdrtd pfjzd, yj qul tjktd fds < gdod fds = cjssnmunlktls cl fj gjfnbngjgnk, fj prnoj cl rnlsmd rljfnzj odvnonlktds gdktrjrnds j fjfmngj, puls rlcugl su vjfdr lk 11 y 17 puktds rlfjtnvjolktl. Daslrvjods vjrnds

    lilopfds qul snmulk lstj fklj, gdk fd qul prdglclods j gjfgufjr lf gdlbngnlktl clgdrrlfjgnk y cl cltlronkjgnk, lsplrjkcd qul fj rlfjgnk lktrl fjs cds vjrnjafls sljnkvlrsj.

    < cjs = cjs

    Gdlb gdrrlfjgnk -0,755=55>12 -0,11:53>

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    40/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -73-

    Bnmurj 2.:7. Gdlbngnlktls Bntge Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Gdoprdajods qul fds rlsuftjcds jrrdijcds pdr lf gfgufd kd sdk fds lsplrjcds

    slmk fj fmngj bnkjkgnlrj y lgdkongj. Fj rlfjgnk lktrl fjs cds vjrnjafls lk lf gjsd j< cjs ls cl onsod slktncd. Lstd qunlrl clgnr, qul j ukj olidrj cl fj gjfncjcgrlcntngnj cl Lspjj slmk Bntge, fj prnoj cl rnlsmd clf adkd lspjdf j :0 jds slvlrj juolktjcd. Wn anlk ls ukj rlfjgnk ouy canf, yj qul sfd lxpfngjrj lf 0,=1% clfjs vjrnjgndkls cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd slmk lf gdlbngnlktl cl cltlronkjgnk, lsvlrcjclrjolktl ffjojtnvd cnged cjtd. Lk lf lstucnd j = cjs daslrvjods qul fjgdrrlfjgnk cl joajs vjrnjafls ls klmjtnvj, fd qul s sl lkgulktrj lk fklj gdk fd qulsl pulcl lsplrjr cl fj rlfjgnk lktrl lstjs cds vjrnjafls. Jk js fj rlfjgnk lktrl fjscds tjoank ls cl ouy plqulj gujktj y fjs vjrnjgndkls lk fj gjfnbngjgnk grlcntngnjcl Bntge sfd lxpfngjrjk lf 1,::% cl fjs vjrnjgndkls cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd j = cjs.

    Pdclods gdkgrltjr qul prgtngjolktl kd tnlklk nkbfulkgnj fds rjtnkms grlcntngnds cl

    Bntge sdarl fjs clgnsndkls cl gdoprj d vlktj cl fds nkvlrsdrls, fd qul kd clij cl slrffjojtnvd, jf trjtjrsl jclos cl fj jmlkgnj os jgtnvj sdarl fjs gjfnbngjgndkls j fjclucj lspjdfj cl fjs trls prnkgnpjfls jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm j knvlf oukcnjf.

    2.7.:.3. GDKI\KSD CL FJW SQLW JMLKGNJW

    Prdglclods j rljfnzjr lf lstucnd cl fj rlfjgnk lktrl fjs vjrnjgndkls cl gjfnbngjgnk clfjs trls prnkgnpjfls jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm y fj vjrnjgnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd j gdrtd pfjzd(< y = cjs). Lk lstl gjsd cnspdklods cl ukj ojydr gjktncjc y prdbukcncjc cl cjtds,yj qul utnfnzjrlods gdkiuktjolktl fds cl fjs trls jmlkgnjs, pdr fd qul sl lsplrj ukrlsuftjcd gdkgfuylktl y os bnjafl qul fds gjfgufjcds jktlrndrolktl. Lk tdtjf

    cnspdklods cl :5 vjrnjgndkls cl rjtnkm, gdk sus gdkslgulktls vjrnjgndkls cl prnojcl rnlsmd j gdrtd pfjzd. Gdod elods daslrvjcd jktlrndrolktl kd tdcjs fjs jmlkgnjscl rjtnkm tnlklk fj onsoj gjpjgncjc pjrj nkbfunr sdarl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd, gdod lk lfgjsd cl Bntge, guyj rlflvjkgnj sdarl nkvlrsdrls ls prgtngjolktl nklxnstlktl.

    Rjrnjgnk gjfnbngjgnk Rjr. Prnoj rnlsmd < cjs Rjr. Prnoj rnlsmd = cjs

    :,77 -:,3 -:,:

    -7 :>,2 5,3

    -:,22 1,5 -3,1>

    -1 :=,3 :>,:

    -:,77 -2,5 -:0,:,77 -:7,2 -:7,>

    -1 -=,3 -1:,3

    -1 :0 :0,,7

    -: :2,5 12 Bnmurj 2.:3.Jkfnsns jmlkgnjs Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    < cjs = cjs

    Gdlb gdrrlfjgnk 0,0535:5=33 -0,:3031:> 0,01:::=1>3

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    41/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -7

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    42/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -72-

    asngds cl olcnj lk fjs < idrkjcjs pdstlrndrls, fd gujf ls ukj gujktj rlfjtnvjolktlrlcugncj.

    Qlsuftj vlrcjclrjolktl ffjojtnvd lf rlsuftjcd cl cnged lstucnd, yj qul gjarjlsplrjr ukj rlfjgnk ouged os nktlksj. Wl trjtj cl gjfnbngjgndkls cl jmlkgnjs qul,gdod vnods lk lf gjptufd 7, dbrlglk uk gfgufd cl fj gjfncjc grlcntngnj ajskcdsl lkukj slrnl cl vjrnjafls lgdkongjs, bnkjkgnlrjs, sdgnjfls y pdftngjs pdkclrjcjs qul,

    pdr fd tjktd, rlsuolk fj sntujgnk lstjafl d nklstjafl cl fds gujtrd prnkgnpjflsgdopdklktls cl lstucnd clf lonsdr cl clucj. Lf lstucnd tjoank pulcl rlsuftjrgdktrjcngtdrnd gdk fj nclj cl qul fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm pdsllk ukj nkbfulkgnj bulrj cltdcj cucj sdarl nkvlrsdrls tjktd kjgndkjfls gdod nktlrkjgndkjfls, lstjkcdgjpjgntjcjs pjrj odcnbngjr lf gdstl cl fjs prnkgnpjfls lonsndkls cl clucj.

    Lstl lstucnd sl pulcl lxtrjpdfjr j fj sntujgnk vnvncj lf 13 cl iufnd cl 10:1 lkLspjj, gujkcd fdmrjods lf trnstl rgdrc clf oxnod enstrngd lk fj prnoj cl rnlsmdclf adkd j :0 jds, 27= puktds asngds. Gdod elods daslrvjcd jktlrndrolktl,vjrnjs sdk fjs blgejs lk fjs qul fjs jmlkgnjs lontjk uk rjtnkm klmjtnvd sdarl kulstrjclucj sdalrjkj curjktl lf jd 10:1, jukqul fj os glrgjkj slj lf ouy clsbjvdrjaflrjtnkm lontncd pdr Oddcys lf cj :7 cl iuknd, lktlkclods fds lblgtds prdcugncds pdrfjs vjrnjgndkls cl rjtnkm j ouy gdrtd pfjzd. Jf olcnd/fjrmd pfjzd fds jrantrjils sllkgjrmjrjk cl kdrojfnzjr lf olrgjcd, pdr fd qul pdclods gdkgfunr qul, cl lxnstnr ukjrlfjgnk nkvlrsj lktrl fj vjrnjgnk cl gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs y fj vjrnjgnk cl fj prnojcl rnlsmd lk lf oxnod enstrngd clf 13 cl iufnd cl 10:1 slrj cl uk vjfdrprgtngjolktl nkjprlgnjafl.

    2.7.1 PNA

    Gdod lxpfngjods lk lf tloj 3, lf knvlf clf PNA d cl fj tjsj cl grlgnonlktd clf onsodls uk cjtd dailtnvd qul nkbfuyl cl ojklrj cnrlgtj lk nkbnkncjc cl vjrnjafls lgdkongjsrlfjtnvjs tjktd j pjsls, mrjkcls loprlsjs d lgdkdojs bjonfnjrls yj qul ls rlbflidcl fj jgtnvncjc nktlrkj clf prdpnd pjs. Lf PNA cl uk pjs oncl lf grlgnonlktd

    lgdkongd clf onsod, lf gujf ls lf rntod jf qul sl nkgrlolktj fj prdcuggnk cl anlklsy slrvngnds cl ukj lgdkdoj, y pdr tjktd su rlktj, curjktl uk plrdcd cltlronkjcd.Lstl plrdcd pulcl sulfl slr cl uk trnolstrl d uk jd. Fj vjrnjafl clf PNA ls ouyutnfnzjcj gdod olcncj clf grlgnonlktd lgdkongd j trjvs cl fj olcngnk cl fj rlktj,qul ls lf vjfdr j prlgnd cl olrgjcd cl anlkls y slrvngnds prdcugncds lk uk pjscurjktl uk plrdcd lstnpufjcd. Gjal lsplrjr, pdr fd tjktd, ukj mrjk nkbfulkgnj clf PNAlk fj tlkclkgnj cl vjrnjgnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj, jf trjtjrsl cl ukj vjrnjaflojgrdlgdkongj tjk bnjafl. Wn anlk ls vlrcjc qul fds cjtds cl PNA qul lxtrjlods kdsl gdkdglk jf odolktd, jf slr uk rlbflid cl fds lblgtds lgdkongds y bnkjkgnlrdsjgjlgncds lk lf pjs, trjsgnlkcl cl ojklrj gjsn nkstjktklj j dtrjs vjrnjaflsojgrdlgdkongjs, gdod pulcl slr lf knvlf cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd.

    Gdrrlspdkcl lsplrjr gdod rlsuftjcd cl fj rlfjgnk lktrl PNA trnolstrjf y vjfdr clfj prnoj cl rnlsmd qul slj nkvlrsj. Jf trjtjrsl lf PNA cl ukj vjrnjafl qul tnlkl ukjmrjk nopdrtjkgnj gdod olcncdr cl fj lgdkdoj y rnqulzjs cl uk pjs fj tldrj kdslopuij j lsplrjr ukj rlfjgnk bulrtl lktrl fjs cds vjrnjafls. Wnk os prdglclods jrljfnzjr fds gfgufds lstjcstngds lk fj edij cl gfgufd Lxglf.

    Gdlb gdrrlfjgnk PNA-PQ -0,30373=3

    Gdlb cltlro. PNA-PQ 0,7

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    43/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -7=-

    gdlbngnlktl cl gdrrlfjgnk tdoj vjfdrls gdoprlkcncds lktrl +: y -:, pdr fd tjktdpdclods gdoprdajr ukj rlfjgnk nkvlrsj y rlfjtnvjolktl nktlksj. Lf gdlbngnlktl clcltlronkjgnk ls cl 0,7

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    44/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -75-

    Olcnj Prnoj Qnlsmd slmk PNA 135,01

    Qlfjgnk PQ rljf/PQ tlrngj 1, Bnmurj 2.:>.Jkfnsns PNA-oxnod enstrngd Bulktl9 lfjadrjgnk prdpnj

    Lf vjfdr tlrngd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd slmk fj fklj cl tlkclkgnj gdk lf PNA lstlblgtnvjolktl ouy jflijcd clf vjfdr oxnod rljf jfgjkzjcd pdr fj prnoj cl rnlsmdlspjdfj. Cl elged lsl vjfdr slrj 1,,01% clf vjfdr oxnod rljf, gnbrj qul sl jslolij jf vjfdr cl Q 1gjfgufjcd pjrj fj rlfjgnk cl joajs vjrnjafls, ls clgnr, sl lkgulktrj lk fklj gdk fjprdpdrgnk cl vjrnjgndkls cl vjfdr qul pulcl lxpfngjrsl olcnjktl lf odclfd, pdr fdqul vdfvlods j tlklr uk cjtd pdsntnvd rlsplgtd j fj bnjanfncjc clf onsod.

    Wnk loajrmd daslrvjods qul lxnstl jfrlclcdr cl uk 20% clf grlgnonlktd cl fjprnoj qul ls kd sl gdksnmul lxpfngjr olcnjktl fj rlfjgnk cl fj onsoj gdk lf PNA.Elods supulstd qul fjs vjrnjgndkls prdcugncjs lk fj prnoj pdr fjs vjrnjgndkls clgjfnbngjgnk cl fjs jmlkgnjs sl prdcuglk j ouy gdrtd pfjzd y lf jrantrjil sl lkgjrmjrj

    cl kdrojfnzjr lf olrgjcd j olcnd/fjrmd pfjzd, pdr fd qul kd jblgtjrj cnrlgtjolktl jfj blgej clf 13 cl iufnd. Cl elged, cngejs vjrnjgndkls sl vlrjk nkgfuncjs clktrd clflstucnd cl fj rlfjgnk lktrl PNA y Prnoj cl Qnlsmd lk fj bdroj cl rlgdmlr cjtds. Lk lfsnmunlktl lpmrjbl lstucnjrlods fjs vjrnjafls qul pulclk lxpfngjr cnged pdrglktjilrlstjktl.

    2.7.7 RJQNJAFLW NKSJKMNAFLW

    Lk lf suagjptufd 1.1 gdkdgjods fjs vjrnjafls qul jblgtjajk j fj prnoj cl rnlsmdlspjdfj. Lktrl lffjs sl lkgdktrjajk lf PNA, fjs gjfnbngjgndkls grlcntngnjs cl fjsjmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm, fj lstjanfncjc pdftngj, fds knvlfls cl clucj, lf kolrd cl

    clslopfljcds y ukj slrnl cl vjrnjafls suailtnvjs d lf clkdonkjcd slktnonlktd clfnkvlrsdr. Lf suojtdrnd cl lstjs vjrnjafls clalrj lxpfngjr lk tdrkd jf 20% cl fjsvjrnjgndkls cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lk lf plrdcd cl lstucnd. Wnk loajrmd lf jkfnsnslstjcstngd cl tdcjs fjs vjrnjafls qul nkbfuylk lk fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj slrj clukj mrjk lxtlksnk y gdopflincjc tgkngj, pdr fd qul qulcjrj bulrj clf jfgjkgl clfprlslktl trjajid. Kds glktrjrlods lk fds lblgtds qul prdcuglk gnlrtjs nkbdrojgndklsy clgnsndkls j knvlf kjgndkjf d nktlrkjgndkjf lk lf slktnonlktd clf nkvlrsdr.

    Ouy nktlrlsjktl rlsuftj fj sntujgnk vnvncj lk 10:1, puls lk ougejs dgjsndkls fjprnoj rljfnzj lvdfugndkls ouy arusgjs snk odcnbngjrsl prgtngjolktl knkmukj vjrnjafltjkmnafl d olcnafl. Lstd kds ejgl plksjr lk fj jgtujgnk cl ukj slrnl cl vjrnjaflsnktjkmnafls qul rlsuftjk cl mrjk trjsglkclkgnj y rlflvjkgnj j fj edrj cl odcnbngjr lf

    gdstl cl fj clucj sdalrjkj lspjdfj. Lstucnjrlods fds trls gjsds qul os ejknkbfuncd, ajskcdkds lk fjs ncljs clsjrrdffjcjs lk lf jrtgufd cl lf plrncngd Lf Pjsjglrgj cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj, js gdod fds lblgtdsprdcugncds sdarl fj onsoj, pjrj trjtjr cl gdoprlkclr fds lblgtds qul dgjsndkjk fdsolcnds cl gdoukngjgnk sdarl lf gdstl cl fj clucj cl fds pjsls, tjktd j knvlfkjgndkjf gdod nktlrkjgndkjf.

    2.7.7.: L\QDPJ JPQ\LAJ LF QLWGJSL J MQLGNJ

    Ajskcdkds lk lf jrtgufd jktlrndrolktl olkgndkjcd y lf jrtgufd cl Lf Pjs clf 7 clojyd cl 10:0 jglrgj clf rlsgjtl mrnlmd clsjrrdffjods lf prlslktl suagjptufd. Lf 1cl ojyd cl 10:0 fds onknstrds cl bnkjkzjs cl fds :2 pjsls qul gdopjrtlk lf lurd, cljgulrcd gdk lf Bdkcd Odkltjrnd Nktlrkjgndkjf jgdrcjrdk jgtnvjr uk prdmrjoj clrlsgjtl bnkjkgnlrd qul jpdrtjrj j Jtlkjs uk tdtjf cl ::0.000 Onff lk trls jds . Lfpfjk slrj "gjpjz cl lstjanfnzjr fj sntujgnk bnsgjf y lgdkongj y rlspdkclr cl bdroj

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    45/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -7>-

    clgnsnvj j fds clsjbds bnsgjfls y lstrugturjfls cl fj lgdkdoj mrnlmj", slmk fjclgfjrjgnk flcj pdr Iljk-Gfjucl Iukghlr.

    Fds lblgtds prdcugncds sdarl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd cl fj lgdkdoj Elflkj y dtrdspjsls qul sl lkgdktrjajk lk sntujgndkls snonfjrls, gdod Lspjj, kd tjrcjrdk lkjpjrlglr. Glktrkcdkds lk lf gdstl cl fj clucj lspjdfj, sl daslrvj god gjsn slcupfngj fj prnoj cl rnlsmd, fflmjkcd ejstj fds 100 puktds asngds. Rjods j prdglclr j

    lstucnjr cngeds lblgtds j gdrtd pfjzd (lk fds qul pdcrjods lfnonkjr pdr gdopfltd fjlxnstlkgnj cl odcnbngjgndkls lk dtrjs vjrnjafls gujktnbngjafls) y j olcnd pfjzd (cdkclpulcl clscnauijrsl uk pdgd fj jggnk cl fj vjrnjafl nktjkmnafl pdr fds lblgtdsprdcugncds pdr fj lvdfugnk cl vjrnjafls tjkmnafls).

    Qlsgjtl j Mrlgnj

    PQ (: id rk jc j jk tls ) Olc nj PQ g /p (< id rk jc js ) Olc nj PQ (10 id rk jc js ) %Rjr . g /p %Rjr . o /p

    :05 :7< :70,= 1

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    46/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -30-

    Lk lf gjsd cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj, trjs tdgjr su oxnod enstrngd cl 27=puktds asngds cds cjs jktls clf cnsgursd clf AGL, sl lxplrnolkt ukj kdtjaflajijcj cl fjs gnbrjs yj qul, j olkds cl uk ols cl prdkukgnjr lsjs pjfjarjs fj prnojfflm j sntujrsl lk 325 puktds lk lf gnlrrl clf cj 1: cl jmdstd cl 10:1. Prdglclodsj lvjfujr fds cjtds cl lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj dgjsndkjcds pdr fjjgtujgnk clf AGL.

    Qulcj prlksj AGLPQ (: id r kjcj jk tls Olc nj PQ g /p (< i dr kjcjs ) Olc nj PQ (10 i dr kjcjs ) %Rjr . g /p %Rjr . o /p

    2:1

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    47/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -3:-

    fds lblgtds daslrvjcds lk fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj trjs lf jkukgnd clf AGL j gdrtdpfjzd (< idrkjcjs), j olcnd pfjzd (10 idrkjcjs) y j uk ols kjturjf.

    AGL Brkg bd rtPQ (: id rk jcj jk tls ) Olc nj PQ g/p (< id rk jcjs ) Olc nj PQ (10 id rk jcjs ) %Rjr . g /p %Rjr . o /p

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    48/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -31-

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    49/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -37-

    GJPS\FD =

    GDKGF\WNDKLWFj prnoj cl rnlsmd kds ej plrontncd daslrvjr su gdopdrtjonlktd j trjvs cl fjsodcnbngjgndkls cl gnlrtjs vjrnjafls ojgrdlgdkongjs. Kd sl trjtjrj cl os qul cluk jglrgjonlktd jf prdbukcd y gdopfngjcd gdopdrtjonlktd cl cnged vjfdr qul

    rlprlslktj lf cnblrlkgnjf cl gdstl cl kulstrj clucj gdk rlsplgtd jf gdstl clf adkdjflok j :0 jds.

    Qlsuftj vlrcjclrjolktl clstjgjafl y ffjojtnvd lf gdopdrtjonlktd cl fj prnoj clrnlsmd gdk rlsplgtd j fj vjrnjgnk cl rjtnkms cl fjs jmlkgnjs cl gjfnbngjgnk. Cngejsjmlkgnjs ejk tlkncd ukj jgtnvncjc ouy jftj lktrl fds jds 100= y 10:3, clancd j fjvdfjtnfncjc subrncj lk fds gujtrd tnpds cl vjrnjafls qul pdkclrjk j fj edrj cl gjfnbngjrukj lonsnk cl clucj9 lgdkongjs, bnkjkgnlrjs, sdgnjfls y pdftngjs. Fj prlslkgnj clOddcys, Wtjkcjrc & Pddrs y Bntge lk fds olcnds cl gdoukngjgnk lrj ejantujf,gdpjkcd pdrtjcjs y jarnlkcd nkbdrojtnvds. Gdktrjstj lk mrjk olcncj cngej pdsngnkolcntngj gdk fds rlsuftjcds jrrdijcds pdr lf lstucnd rljfnzjcd jglrgj cl su rlfjgnkgdk fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd. Wlmk lf onsod, fjs jmlkgnjs cl rjtnkm

    sdfjolktl lxpfngjrjk lf 2,=% cl fjs lvdfugndkls cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd j gdrtdpfjzd. Gjal lsplrjr ukj rlfjgnk ouged os jbnjkzjcj lktrl fjs cds vjrnjaflsjkjfnzjcjs, snk loajrmd pjrlgl clodstrjcd qul kd sdk tjk pjrlijs gdod kdslopuijrj j plksjr fj fmngj bnkjkgnlrj. Wn anlk j olcnd pfjzd fds lblgtds cl fjsvjrnjgndkls cl rjtnkm sl cnsnpjk, pdsnaflolktl brutd clf jrantrjil.

    Wl tdrkj klglsjrnd lxpfngjr fj trjsglkclkgnj qul tnlkl lf Prdcugtd Nktlrndr Arutdpjrj fjs olcngndkls ojgrdlgdkongjs cl fds pjsls, lsplgnjfolktl lk pdgjs clgrnsns gdod fj qul jkjfnzjods lk lf prlslktl trjajid. Lf knvlf clf PNA d cl fj tjsj clgrlgnonlktd clf onsod ls uk cjtd dailtnvd qul nkbfuyl cl ojklrj cnrlgtj lk nkbnkncjccl vjrnjafls lgdkongjs rlfjtnvjs tjktd j pjsls, mrjkcls loprlsjs d lgdkdojsbjonfnjrls yj qul ls rlbflid cl fj jgtnvncjc nktlrkj clf prdpnd pjs. Lf lstucnd rljfnzjcdpjrj gjfgufjr fj rlfjgnk lxnstlktl lktrl PNA y prnoj cl rnlsmd kd ejgl os qulrlbdrzjr fj nclj pfjktljcj jktlrndrolktl. Srjs fj lxtrjggnk cl cjtds y fj jpfngjgnk cluk jkfnsns lstjcstngd, gdkgrltjods qul lf knvlf cl PNA lxpfngj ejstj lf 7

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    50/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -33-

    jprdajgnk clf rlsgjtl j fj lgdkdoj elflkj, sjgucn cl ojklrj rlojrgjafl lfolrgjcd cl clucj pafngj lspjdfj. Sjktd ls js, qul jf ols cl fj nktlrvlkgnk clfAGL lf vjfdr cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd cl Lspjj grlgj uk =

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    51/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj

    -3 puktds 10onkutds.ls. 1< cl iufndettp9//www.10onkutds.ls/kdtngnj/:

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    52/53

    Nvjrs Ojrgelkj, Pjafd

    -32-

    BNKJKYJW.GDO (10:3)9 Grnsns clf fjcrnffd9 slns gfjvls pjrj gdoprlkclr cl ckcl vlknods y jckcl vjods, 11 cl kdvnloarl,ettp9//www.bnkjkzjs.gdo/kdtngnjs/vnvnlkcj/10:3::11/grnsns-fjcrnffd-slns-gfjvls-15:0230.etof(Gdksuftjcd :0/0

  • 7/24/2019 ANLISIS DE LA EVOLUCIN DE LA PRIMA DE RIESGO ESPAOLA

    53/53

    SBM-BNGD. Jkfnsns cl fj lvdfugnk cl fj prnoj cl rnlsmd lspjdfj