Anaerobic Digestion deployment in the UK

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<ul><li><p>Anaerobic Digestion Deployment </p><p>in the United Kingdom </p><p>Lucy Hopwood </p><p>Lead Consultant Bioenergy &amp; Anaerobic Digestion </p><p>REA Biogas Group Meeting, London </p><p>01 December 2014 </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p> Definitions </p><p>Plant scale </p><p> Small scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of 250kWe and below. </p><p> Medium scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 250kWe to 500kWe. </p><p> Large scale refers to installations with an installed capacity of above 500kWe. </p><p>Plant type </p><p> Waste-fed refers to installations where the contribution of municipal (e.g. food waste; green waste), commercial (e.g. food waste) and industrial wastes (e.g. brewery waste; animal processing wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%. </p><p> Farm-fed refers to installations where the contribution of farm-based feedstocks (e.g. manure; slurry; energy crops; crop wastes) towards the total feedstock requirement is greater than 50%. </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p> 157 operational plants </p><p> 80 farm-fed (57.3 MWe) </p><p> 77 waste-fed (104.6 MWe) </p><p> 415 plants under development </p><p> 283 farm-fed (176.3 MWe) </p><p> 132 waste-fed (270.2 MWe </p><p> 29 biomethane-to-grid (BtG) projects </p><p> 5 operational plants </p><p> 24 plants under development </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p> 19 plants online since last report (15 farm-fed; 4 waste-fed) </p><p> 74 more plants undergoing development (70 farm-fed; 4 waste-</p><p>fed) </p><p> Clear movement towards the development of agricultural plant </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>National Deployment </p><p> Deployment currently </p><p>strongest in England </p><p> Attractive support under NIRO could see NI </p><p>deployment increase over </p><p>the next few years </p><p>0</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>150</p><p>200</p><p>250</p><p>300</p><p>350</p><p>400</p><p>450</p><p>500</p><p>0</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>150</p><p>200</p><p>250</p><p>300</p><p>350</p><p>400</p><p>450</p><p>500</p><p>United</p><p>Kingdom</p><p>England Northern</p><p>Ireland</p><p>Scotland Wales</p><p>Nu</p><p>mb</p><p>er o</p><p>f pla</p><p>nts </p><p>Inst</p><p>alle</p><p>d C</p><p>ap</p><p>ac</p><p>ity (</p><p>MW</p><p>e) </p><p>Operational (MWe) In Development (MWe) Operational In Development</p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Regional Deployment </p><p> Deployment strongest across </p><p>the Midlands and Southern </p><p>regions </p><p> Deployment weakest in North East </p><p> Broadly consistent distribution in other regions </p><p>0</p><p>10</p><p>20</p><p>30</p><p>40</p><p>50</p><p>60</p><p>70</p><p>80</p><p>0</p><p>10</p><p>20</p><p>30</p><p>40</p><p>50</p><p>60</p><p>70</p><p>80</p><p>NW NE YH WM EM EE SW SE LDN IoW</p><p>Nu</p><p>mb</p><p>er o</p><p>f pla</p><p>nts </p><p>Inst</p><p>alle</p><p>d C</p><p>ap</p><p>ac</p><p>ity (</p><p>MW</p><p>e) </p><p>Operational (MWe) In Development (MWe) Operational In Development</p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Future Deployment </p><p> If all plants under </p><p>development completed </p><p>capacity would quadruple </p><p>by 2017 </p><p> However, only around 30-50% of plants in pipeline </p><p>expected to complete </p><p> Consistent with existing linear deployment </p><p>0</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>150</p><p>200</p><p>250</p><p>300</p><p>350</p><p>400</p><p>0</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>150</p><p>200</p><p>250</p><p>300</p><p>350</p><p>400</p><p>pre</p><p>2005</p><p>2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017</p><p>Cu</p><p>mu</p><p>lativ</p><p>e N</p><p>um</p><p>be</p><p>r of P</p><p>lan</p><p>ts </p><p>Cu</p><p>mu</p><p>lative</p><p> In</p><p>sta</p><p>lled</p><p> Ca</p><p>pa</p><p>city (</p><p>MW</p><p>e) </p><p>Farm-fed (MWe) Waste-fed (MWe) Farm-fed Waste-fed</p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Deployment by scale </p><p> Large scale plants currently </p><p>dominate in terms of </p><p>number and capacity </p><p> Consistent growth across all scales, despite FiT degression </p><p>for small and medium scale </p><p>earlier in the year </p><p> Deployment of small scale and BtG still at low level </p><p> BtG sector anticipated for growth, although RHI tariff </p><p>undergoing review </p><p>0</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>150</p><p>200</p><p>250</p><p>300</p><p>350</p><p>400</p><p>0</p><p>50</p><p>100</p><p>150</p><p>200</p><p>250</p><p>300</p><p>350</p><p>400</p><p>Small scale Medium scale Large scale BtG</p><p>Nu</p><p>mb</p><p>er o</p><p>f pla</p><p>nts </p><p>Inst</p><p>alle</p><p>d c</p><p>ap</p><p>ac</p><p>ity (</p><p>MW</p><p>e) </p><p>Operational (MWe) In Development (MWe) Operational In Development</p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Current feedstock requirements </p><p> 1,780,000 tpa food waste </p><p> 880,000 tpa energy crops </p><p> 830,000 tpa other waste </p><p> 520,000 tpa manure/slurry </p><p> 220,000 tpa crop waste </p><p>0</p><p>1,000</p><p>2,000</p><p>3,000</p><p>4,000</p><p>5,000</p><p>6,000</p><p>pre</p><p>2005</p><p>2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017</p><p>Fe</p><p>ed</p><p>sto</p><p>ck V</p><p>olu</p><p>me</p><p>s (k</p><p>tpa</p><p>) </p><p>Manure/Slurry Crop Food Waste</p><p>Crop waste Other Manure/Slurry (Cum.)</p><p>Crop (Cum.) Food Waste (Cum.) Crop waste (Cum.)</p><p>Other (Cum.)</p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Projected (theoretical) feedstock requirements March 2014 </p><p>0</p><p>1,000</p><p>2,000</p><p>3,000</p><p>4,000</p><p>5,000</p><p>6,000</p><p>pre</p><p>2005</p><p>2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017</p><p>Fe</p><p>ed</p><p>sto</p><p>ck V</p><p>olu</p><p>me</p><p>s (k</p><p>tpa</p><p>) </p><p>Manure/Slurry Crop Food Waste</p><p>Crop waste Other Manure/Slurry (Cum.)</p><p>Crop (Cum.) Food Waste (Cum.) Crop waste (Cum.)</p><p>Other (Cum.)</p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Projected (theoretical) feedstock requirements September 2014 </p><p>0</p><p>1,000</p><p>2,000</p><p>3,000</p><p>4,000</p><p>5,000</p><p>6,000</p><p>pre</p><p>2005</p><p>2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017</p><p>Fe</p><p>ed</p><p>sto</p><p>ck V</p><p>olu</p><p>me</p><p>s (k</p><p>tpa</p><p>) </p><p>Manure/Slurry Crop Food Waste</p><p>Crop waste Other Manure/Slurry (Cum.)</p><p>Crop (Cum.) Food Waste (Cum.) Crop waste (Cum.)</p><p>Other (Cum.)</p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Projected feedstock requirements </p><p> Balance of feedstock in projections changed noticeably over the last 6 months </p><p> Food waste projections increased by under 200,000 tpa </p><p> Other waste projections increased by 400,000 tpa </p><p> Manure projections increased by just over 400,000 tpa </p><p> Crop projections increased by almost 1.2 million tpa </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Food waste </p><p> New report from Eunomia suggests the UK is near </p><p>capacity with regards to </p><p>volumes of available food </p><p>waste entering AD </p><p> NNFCC data provides further evidence for this </p><p>notion </p><p> Eunomia Research &amp; Consulting; 2014 </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Energy crops </p><p> Large growth in anticipated demand for energy crops in AD </p><p> Largely on account of the initiation of a number of very large scale crop-only projects in the East Midland and East of England </p><p> Possible reasons: </p><p> Large scale AD developers attracted towards crop feedstock as food waste approaches capacity </p><p> FiT degression for small and medium scale AD has encouraged farm-based AD developers to consider larger scales than initially envisaged </p><p> Biomethane-to-grid now becoming very attractive at scale </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>0</p><p>10,000</p><p>20,000</p><p>30,000</p><p>40,000</p><p>50,000</p><p>60,000</p><p>70,000</p><p>80,000</p><p>90,000</p><p>100,000</p><p>pre</p><p>2005</p><p>2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017</p><p>Cro</p><p>p a</p><p>rea</p><p> (H</p><p>a) </p><p>Crop area Crop area (Cum.)</p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Required cropland </p><p> Assuming an energy crop </p><p>yield of 45 fresh tonnes/Ha </p><p>the UK AD industry requires </p><p>19,500 Ha of land </p><p> If all plants under development were to </p><p>complete the UK AD industry </p><p>would require 86,000 Ha of </p><p>land (1.5% of UK crop land) </p><p> Break crops often used for AD </p><p> NNFCC </p></li><li><p>Copyright NNFCC 2014. </p><p>AD Deployment in the UK </p><p>Summary and future development </p><p> Development pipeline remains strong despite FiT degression earlier in the year </p><p> However, considerable challenges ahead for both the agriculture and food waste AD sectors </p><p> Improved utilisation of slurries/manures, especially from poultry sector, could support increased deployment </p><p> RHI could become a more stable form of support in the future and result in further BtG deployment </p></li><li><p>Celebrating 10 years of Bioeconomy </p><p>development </p><p>NNFCC is a UK based consultancy with </p><p>expertise on the conversion of biomass </p><p>to bioenergy, biofuels and biobased </p><p>products. </p><p>We help industry solve complex </p><p>business challenges and provide vital </p><p>evidence for policy makers. </p><p> | | www.nnfcc.com | enquiries@nnfcc.co.uk </p><p>Lucy Hopwood, </p><p>Lead Consultant Bioenergy &amp; Anaerobic Digestion </p><p>l.hopwood@nnfcc.co.uk </p></li></ul>