The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.
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Wheat Evolution Under Climate Change Warming
Zhang ZhengbinCenter for agriculture resource research
Institute of genetics and development biology Chinese Academy of Science
Global Climate Change and Wheat Production in The World
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First I want to talk about -, Since industry revolution begin from the eighteen century, more fossil fuels were consumed
WORLD CO2 EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS
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So, world CO2 emission was increased quickly in recent two hundred years,, that results in global temperature change waring meanwhile.
Combined annual land-surface air and sea surface temperature anomalies (C°) 1861 to 2000 relative to 1961 and 1990. Two standard error uncertainties are shown as bars on the annual number.
Global Mean Temperature(140 year record)
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Under global climate change warming condition, in the word, wheat area not change much, but maize area was increased greatly in recent twenty years, that means climbing temperature is favorable to maize plant widely in high temperature seasons and regions.
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Among five major wheat exporters, in Europe, wheat production was increased quickly, that may be because increasing temperature in European, that benefit to wheat production. But in other four countries, wheat production was increased not much.
in USDA
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In USA, wheat yield was increased much in past thirty years, but wheat area has been decreased greatly, and will be decreased in future ten years.
Crop Plant area in China
Rice Wheat Maize1000hectare
Region of wheat origin: Region of wheat cultivation:
Wheat Origin and Evolution
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Wheat origin form the west Asia ,now wheat was planted wildly in the world
Yellow and Huai River Region
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China is the largest wheat production in the world, it has the largest wheat area in Yellow and Huai River region, in recent years, it produced one Hundred Million tones wheat
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In this region, wheat yield also is very higher in the world
In this region larger area wheat often suffered serious drought and cold disaster in recent years.
Wheat evolution
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In ancient time, one wild diploid wheat with AA genome crossed with another wild diploid with BB genome, evolved to a wild tetraploid wheat with AABB genome, then evolved to cultivated species before ten thousand years, and crossed with DD genome, evolved to Hexaploid wheat with AABBDD genome.
New variety AABBDD
Wheat different species
T.boeoticum,AA
T. monoccum,AA
Ae.squarrosa, DD
Ae. speltoides,BB
Tetraploidsa,AABBHexaploidea, AABBDD
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In early spring, most wild species grow slower than modern varieties, so there were more evapotranspiration than modern varieties. So modern varieties has higher WUE.
Ae. speltoides,BB
Ae.squarrosa, DD
Tetraploidsa,AABB
New variety AABBDD
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Wild species with smaller leaves and grow slower modern varieties
Ancient species New varieties
Yield
Harvest index
WUE
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In the late growth period, compared with wild species, modern varieties with shorter plant, but with larger spikes and seeds, higher harvest index and higher WUE.
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Compared with wild species, modern varieties matured early about 15-20 days in Huanghuai region.
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2x 4x 6x DLV ILV
蒸散量 ET（mm)
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
2 x 4 x 6 x D L V I LV
水 分 利 用 效 率 W U E ( k g / h ㎡ . m m )
0
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
2 x 4 x 6 x D L V I L V
产 量 Y （ k g / h m 2） Yield
Evapotranspiration
WUE
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Wheat evolutes from diploid to tetraploid to hexaploid to dryland varieties to Irrigated land varieties, yield was increased greatly, but evapotransiration was decreased markedly, so wheat WUE was increased significantly
Table 1. WUE(=photosynthetic rate/transpiration rate) of flag Leaf of wheat ancestor species
Under microscope with ten times, we find that modern variety with larger stomata than wild species
Table 2 Physiology Traits Evolution of Wheat Ancestor Species
P/T P T △P △T G Ci GA GD
2n 1.60 13.35 8.45 0.307 239.60 4.42 1.77
4n 1.71 10.64 6.37 0.21 227.17 6.85 1.41
6n 1.98 8.68 4.76 0.15 218.50 7.03 1.38
2n-6n 34.98% 43.66% 4.67 3.69
2n-4n 20.29% 24.62% 2.71 2.08
4n-6n 18.42% 25.27% 1.96 1.61
Positive or Negative Effect on Wheat Production of Climate change Warming？
Between 1980 and 2008, climbing global temperatures took millions of tons of wheat off the dinner table. (Science/AAAS) By Daniel Strain, Science News May 6, 2011
But there were three projected wheat yield models were set up by scientists in Columbia university, the results show that, in Asia and Australia and other regions, climate change has different positive effect on wheat yield, but in Africa, climate change has serious negative effect on wheat yiled
Wheat Production will Meet Challenge in Future in China
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In the end,
1958－2007年我国年均气温变化幅度
来源：中国气象局气候变化中心
Annual mean temperature change from 1958-2007 in China
(℃/10Yr)
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in past fifty years, the Annual mean temperature of most area in China was increased greatly, in Yellow-huai region the temperature also was increased much.
1958-2007年我国年降水量变化幅度(%/10年）来源：中国气象局气候变化中心
(%/10Yr)
Rainfall change from 1958-2007 in China
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But in Yellow-huai region, rainfall has been decreased greatly in past fifty years.
Groundwater funnel area expansion quickly in North China plain
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In North China plain, because most underground water was used in agricultural irrigation, so there is the biggest groundwater funnel area in the world,. So water shortage problem will be the biggest limited factor for sustainable develop in this region
Temperature change in China when double CO2 concentration （℃）
And rainfall will be decreased greatly in the east region in future. Because the most of grains were produced from this region, so china wheat and other crop production will meet great challenge in future climate change.