y-t-d 2009 spot revenue analysis 1st q ’09 -25.2-27.9 2nd q ’09 -24.5-25.6 1st h ’09-24.9-26.7...

Y-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue AnalysisY-T-D 2009 Spot Revenue Analysis

1st Q ’09 -25.2 -27.92nd Q ’09 -24.5 -25.61st H ’09 -24.9 -26.7

July ’09 -20.3 -22.9

Y-T-D -24.3 -26.2

TVB Estimates GTSS

Spot TV % Change Base Total

Automotive – Fctry, Dlr Assn & Dlrs -50.3Quick Serve Restaurants -12.8Furniture Stores -26.4Legal Services -3.4Wireless Telecom Providers +2.5Bundled Telecom Products/Svcs -21.0Hospitals, Clinics & Medical Centers-13.0Automobile Insurance -28.7Cable TV Providers & Systems +34.3Colleges & Universities +3.4

1st Half 2009 Category Analysis1st Half 2009 Category Analysis

Source: TNS Media Intelligence

% ChangeTop 10 Spot Categories2009/2008

Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2009

Automotive Ad Spending 1st H 2009

Chrysler-Cerberus 277,022 535,906 -48.3Ford 702,153 842,518 -16.7General Motors 886,194 1,365,644 -35.1

Subtotal Big 3 1,865,368 2,744,067 -32.0

BMW 88,998 124,820 -28.7Daimler 140,379 173,914 -19.3Honda 433,153 534,813 -19.0Hyundai/KIA 343,890 398,719 -13.8Isuzu 45,981 425 -89.2Mazda 114,625 176,283 -35.0Mitsubishi 23,562 72,596 -67.5Nissan 290,004 475,551 -39.0Subaru 50,875 63,958 -20.5Toyota 621,742 908,260 -31.5Volkswagen 215,601 197,361 9.2

Subtotal All Other 2,322,876 3,126,700 -25.7

Grand Total 4,188,244 5,870,766 -28.7

Overall $ Overall $ %

Parent Co. 1st H 2009 1st H 2008 Ch.

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2009Automotive Spot TV $ 1st H 2009

Chrysler-Cerberus 96,904 203,564 -52.4Ford 141,182 245,365 -42.5General Motors 68,122 229,237 -70.3

Subtotal Big 3 306,208 678,166 -54.8

BMW 16,255 26,950 -39.7Daimler 8,472 43,380 -80.5Honda 130,160 177,104 -26.5Hyundai/KIA 78,348 106,662 -26.5Isuzu 21 130 -83.8Mazda 11,307 55,285 -79.5Mitsubishi 2,427 18,373 -86.8Nissan 45,056 139,930 -67.8Subaru 8,459 10,860 -22.1Toyota 153,705 319,425 -51.9Volkswagen 47,320 48,743 -2.9

Subtotal All Other 501,530 946,843 -47.0

Grand Total 807,739 1,625,009 -50.3

1st H 2009 1st H 2008

Spot TV $ Spot TV $ %

Parent Co. ($000) ($000) Ch.

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2009

Automotive Spot TV Share 1st H 2009

Chrysler-Cerberus 35.0 37.7Ford 20.1 28.4General Motors 7.7 16.6

Subtotal Big 3 16.4 24.3

BMW 18.3 21.4Daimler 6.0 25.0Honda 30.0 32.6Hyundai/KIA 22.8 26.7Isuzu 45.9 19.9Mazda 9.9 31.3Mitsubishi 10.3 24.4Nissan 15.5 29.2Subaru 16.6 17.0Toyota 24.7 34.8Volkswagen 21.9 23.9

Subtotal All Other 21.6 30.3

Grand Total 19.3 27.7

1st H 2009 1st H 2008Spot TV Spot TV

Parent Co. % Share % Share

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

Automotive Spot TV ShareAutomotive Spot TV Share

2002 30.42003 28.62004 28.62005 27.22006 31.12007 30.22008 28.8

1st H 2008 27.71st H 2009 19.3

AutomotiveAd Spending for Spot TV

Year of Share

Source: TNS Media Intelligence, 9/09

Base Business AnalysisBase Business Analysis

Year % Change

2001 -15.62002 8.72003 0.62004 4.62005 -1.22006 2.42007 -1.82008 -11.1Thru July 2009 -24.3

2008/2009 Spot TV $ Political Analysis2008/2009 Spot TV $ Political Analysis

1st Half 407.2 170.6 -236.6 -58.1

2nd Half 1,139.8714.4 -425.4 -37.3

Total 1,547.0885.0-662.0 -42.8

Source: CMAG

Dollars (M) 2008 2009(e) $ Change % Change

Now The Year AheadNow The Year Ahead

What Can We Expect?

Here’s What the Industry Analysts

Are Saying About 2010

Here’s What the Industry Analysts

Are Saying About 2010

Participating FirmsParticipating Firms

BenchmarkBIA FinancialJackMyers Media Business ReportJP MorganMagnaSNLKaganVeronis Suhler StevensonWells Fargo Securities, LLC

BenchmarkBenchmark

Local Spot +5.0Nat’l Spot +6.0Network +4.0Broadcast Online +7.0Broadcast Wireless na

(% Change) 2010

BIA FinancialBIA Financial

Local Spot +3.0Nat’l Spot +2.0Network -7.0Nat’l Synd. -5.0Network Cable -1.0Local Cable -2.0Broadcast Online +20.0Broadcast Wireless +25.0

(% Change) 2010

JackMyers Media Business Report JackMyers Media Business Report

Local Spot -2.0Nat’l Spot +0.5Network -8.0Syndication -2.0Network Cable -0.5Local Cable +12.0Broadcast Online +7.0Broadcast Wireless +12.0

(% Change) 2010

JP MorganJP Morgan

Local Spot -2.0Nat’l Spot +1.0

(% Change) 2010

MagnaMagna

Spot +13.3Network -0.9Syndication -8.5Network Cable +3.0Local Cable +18.7Broadcast Online +3.6Broadcast Wireless na

(% Change) 2010

SNLKaganSNLKagan

Local Spot +5.0Nat’l Spot +6.0

(% Change) 2010

Veronis Suhler StevensonVeronis Suhler Stevenson

Local Spot +3.3Nat’l Spot +6.6Network -4.6Syndication +4.5Network Cable +7.2Spot Cable +5.4Broadcast Online +7.8Broadcast Wireless +0.2

(% Change) 2010

Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Securities, LLC

Local Spot +5.0Nat’l Spot +10.0Network -2.0Syndication +1.0Network Cable +3.0Local Cable +4.0Broadcast Online +5.0Broadcast Wireless na

(% Change) 2010

Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Local Spot

Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Local Spot

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Local Spot Ranges% Change

Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Nat’l Spot

Industry Analysts Estimates 2010 – Nat’l Spot

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

National Spot Ranges% Change

Local Spot +2.5Nat’l Spot +4.6Network -3.1Syndication -2.0Network Cable +2.3Local Cable +7.6Broadcast Online +8.4Broadcast Wireless +12.4

Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts

Summary of the Industry Expert Forecasts

(% Change) 2010

TV Rep Surveyfor 2010

TV Rep Surveyfor 2010

National Spot +15.8

National Online +11.3

National Wireless +20.0

9 Participants

TV Rep SurveyTV Rep Survey

(% Change) 2010

2010 Rep Survey2010 Rep Survey

Mean+15.8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

% Change

And Now TVB’s Forecast

for 2010

Market Influences – 2010 Market Influences – 2010

Confidence/Consumer Activity…

Jobs Real Estate Financial Markets/Credit

Market Influences – 2010 Market Influences – 2010

Overall ad spending levels“Established”/”Emerging” balanceNetwork vs. Spot…geography vs. behavioralKey categories: Auto Political

Market Influences – 2010 Market Influences – 2010

Technology and consumer adoption(DVR; online video; mobile web)IT and e-Biz applicationsSocial media marketing

Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online

Borrell Projection – Local Broadcast Online

Source: Borrell Associates, Sept. 2009

Local Broadcast TV Interactive Revenues

($ in millions)

$75 $119$283

$447

$772

$1,050 $1,110

$1,310

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f

TVB Forecast 2010TVB Forecast 2010

Local Spot +1 to +3Nat’l Spot +6 to +12Total Spot +3.6 to +6.1Station Websites +18.0Station Mobile +50.0

(% Change)

Base Business ComparisonBase Business Comparison

2005 -1.2% 479 -5.5%

2006 2.4% 1,980 8.5%

2007 -1.8% 466 -7.4%

2008 -11.1% 1,547 -6.5%

2009(e) -15.8% 885 -18.1%

2010(e) 1.1% 1,500 4.9%

TotalBase POL $ (Base + Political)

Source: CMAG, TVB

(% Change)

At Mid-Point of Forecast Range

2010% of Total

Local Station Revenue Model Local Station Revenue Model

(Dollars in millions)

Television Advertising – Primary Channel89.7

Digital Sub-Channels 0.9

Internet 4.4

Mobile 0.2

Retransmission Consent 4.8

Total Local Station Revenue 100.0

Source: 7 Broadcast Groups

2011% of Total

87.2

1.5

5.3

0.7

5.3

100.0

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