world oil consumption per sector

Workshop on “Integrated development and climate policies: How to realize benefits at national and

international level?”

Suzana Kahn RibeiroPROFESSOR

Engineering Transport ProgrammeFederal University of Rio de Janeiro- Brazil

20-22 September 2006Paris

INICIATIVES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR WITH GHG INICIATIVES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR WITH GHG EMISSION REDUCTION AS CO-BENEFIT: ANALYSIS OF EMISSION REDUCTION AS CO-BENEFIT: ANALYSIS OF

FUEL EFFICIENCY,ETHANOL USE IN FLEX-FUEL FUEL EFFICIENCY,ETHANOL USE IN FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES AND THE BIODIESEL PROGRAM IN BRAZILVEHICLES AND THE BIODIESEL PROGRAM IN BRAZIL

World Oil Consumption per Sector

1973

Transport

42%

Industry27%

Non Energy Use

6%

Other Sectors25%

2004

Industry10%

Non Energy Use

17%

Transport

58%

Other Sectors15%

42% 58%

+16%

TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCETRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE

(IEA, 2006)

TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCETRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE

• WORLD OIL BY-PRODUCTS - 2004– 43% of total energy final consumption = 3.2 Gtep;– 40% CO2 emissions = 10.6 Gt;– Transport sector consumption : 58% = 1.9 Gtep.

• Oil BY-PRODUCTS IN BRAZIL - 2004– 40% of total energy final consumption = 71 Mtep;– Transport sector consumption: 61% = 43 Mtep.

22%

26%52%

Diesel Gasolina Outros

96,7% Road99,7% Road

(IEA,2006)

(MME,2005)

TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCETRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE

Transport Energy by Region

(WBSD,2004)

TRANSPORT RELATED PROBLEMSTRANSPORT RELATED PROBLEMS

• Oil dependency;• Congestion;• Poor air quality in urban centers.

Solutions to these problems rely on:

• Policies towards higher energy efficiency in transport as well as transport sector efficiency;

• Transport policy towards energy matrix diversification.

Leading to a CO2 emission reduction as co-benefit.

Fuel Efficiency Increase

• In the case of new light vehicles : Vehicle Labelling Program;• In the case of light vehicle in use: Inspection/ Maintenance Program;• In case of heavy duty vehicles: Inspection/ Maintenance Program.

Oil Dependency Reduction

• Increase in Hydrous Ethanol (sugar cane) consumption: Flex-Fuel technology;

• Biodiesel (soybean) in heavy duty vehicles: National Biodiesel Program.

ANALYZED INITIATIVESANALYZED INITIATIVES

Fuel Efficiency Transport Sector

Economic Social EnvironmentalStrategic

DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES

Vehicle Labelling

Economic Social Environmental

Gasoline and ethanol

consumption reduction

Urban air quality improvement

Health improvemnt

DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES

Inspection & MaintenancePrograms for Light Vehicles in Use

Economic Social Environmental

Gasoline and ethanol

consumption reduction

Urban air quality improvement

Health improvement

DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES

Inspection & MaintenancePrograms for Heavy Vehicles in Use

Economic Social EnvironmentalStrategic

Diesel oil consumption reduction;

Maintenance cost reduction.

Urban air quality improvement

Health improvement

Imported oil dependency reduction

DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES

Flex Fuel Technology

Economic Social Environmental

Enhance Agribusiness;Reduce gasoline

consumption;Promote sustainable

regional development;

Renewable FuelJob Generation

DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES

Biodiesel National Programme

Economic Social EnvironmentalStrategic

Urban air quality improvement

Health improvement

Energy matrix diversification

Job GenerationEnhance Agribusiness;Reduce imported diesel

dependency Promote sustainable regional development;

DRIVING FORCESDRIVING FORCES

Obtained Results Obtained Results Fuel Efficiency Increase Fuel Efficiency Increase

Labelling Programe

Assumptions:•Vehicle labelling system proposed for the EU by the European Community Commission;•Light vehicles (gasoline) in São Paulo municipality;•Assessment period : 2000 to 2004.

Results:•Consumption of 141 million litres of gasoline could have been avoided.

Co-benefit:•Emission of 311M tons of CO2 could have been avoided.

Obtained ResultsObtained ResultsFuel Efficiency Increase Fuel Efficiency Increase

Considered Data:• Assessment period : 2002;• Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area; •1.616.273 Light Vehicles.

Results:•Avoided Emissions: 56,000 – 124,000 ton CO;•Avoided Gasoline : 73 -126 M liters;

Co-benefit:•Avoided Emissions : 0.207 – 0.354 M tons of CO2.

Inspection/ Maintenance Program – Light Vehicles

(Petrobras, 2006)

Obtained ResultsObtained ResultsFuel Efficiency Increase Fuel Efficiency Increase

Considered data:•Assessment period : 1996 – 2002 and 2003 -2005 •Buses and trucks (130,000 vehicles in 1996-2003)•22 states in Brazil;

Results:•1996-2003: 300 M liters/year of diesel and 18,000 ton/year of PM avoided;• 2003-2005: 321 M liters/year of diesel and 19,200 ton/year of PM avoided;

Co-benefit:•Avoided Emissions in 1996-2003: 0.80 M tons of CO2/year ;•Avoided Emissions in 2003-2005: 0.86 M tons of CO2/year.

Inspection/ Maintenance Program – Heavy Vehicles

(Petrobras, 2006)

Obtained Results Obtained Results Oil Dependency ReductionOil Dependency Reduction

Flex-Fuel Technology

Assumptions:•Assessment period : 2003 to 2006;•Light vehicles in South East and South Region;

Results:• Avoided Gasoline: 8.3 – 9.9 Billion liters.

Co-benefit:•Avoided Emission: 23 - 27 M tons of CO2.

Obtained Results Obtained Results Oil Dependency ReductionOil Dependency Reduction

National Biodiesel Program

Assumptions:•Assessment period : 2005 to 2006;•Brazilian fleet fueled by mineral diesel consumes the mixture B2 of biodiesel from soybean and uses methanol in the chemical process.

Results:• Avoided Diesel: 1.2 Million liters.

Co-benefit:•Avoided Emission: 1.3 Mtons of CO2

ADVANTAGES OF THE FLEX FUEL CAR ADVANTAGES OF THE FLEX FUEL CAR

Fuel supply flexibility ( price and availability )

Smaller cost when provisioning with alcohol

Flexibility of provisioning (price and readiness)

Consumption will depend on:

cost difference between gasoline and alcohol

autonomy need

Flex-Fuel TechnologyFlex-Fuel Technology

Share of Flex Fuel sales Share of Flex Fuel sales

(ANFAVEA, 2006)

3.7%

21.6%

50.2%

74.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2003 2004 2005 July 2006

48,178

328,379

812,104

1,525,943

Flex-Fuel TechnologyFlex-Fuel Technology

Brazilian National Biodiesel ProgramBrazilian National Biodiesel Program

BiodieselBiodiesel

Regulatory Mark

for Biodiesel

Law 11.097/05

Jan/2005 Jan/2008 Jan/2013

Obligatory Obligatory MixtureMixture

AuthorizeAuthorized Mixtured Mixture++

AuthorizeAuthorized Mixtured Mixture

Obligatory Obligatory MixtureMixture

Time needed to organize the

productive chain

regulates the market

consolidates the market

B2B2 B2B2 UP TO B5UP TO B5 B5B5

Phase 1 Phase2 Phase3

LAW 11.097/ 2005: establishes a minimum percentage of biodiesel mixture to the diesel and the penetration rate of biodiesel in the market

800 million of liters/ year 1 billion of liters/ year

2,4 billion of liters/ year

A specific taxation was established

structures the market

(million hectares)

Agriculture..................... 137

Livestock....................... (35)

Permanent crops.......... (10)

Forest............................. (2)

Available Area................90

AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION – AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION – PRESENT SITUATION AND POTENTIAL GROWTHPRESENT SITUATION AND POTENTIAL GROWTH

Area needed to supply biodiesel (B5) 3 million hectares (NAE, 2005);

There are about 90 million hectares available for agricultural expansion regarding different raw materials to produce biofuels, just in the western area.

Brazilian National Biodiesel ProgramBrazilian National Biodiesel Program

CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

It should be noted that the Brazilian initiatives on fuel efficiency and biofuels in the transport sector, meet, without jeopardizing the growing transport activity, their main objectives:

•Oil dependency reduction;• Air quality improvement;• Job generation.

Thus, as a co-benefit the CO2 emission reduction is also obtained.

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

KEY MESSAGEKEY MESSAGE

In order to make transport policies more efficient in terms of CO2 emission reduction it is important to promote the quantification of such emissions together with the diffusion of these results .