world energy-economy scenarios with system dynamics modelling carlos de castro, luis javier miguel,...
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World Energy-Economy scenarios with system dynamics modelling
Carlos de Castro, Luis Javier Miguel, Margarita MediavillaUniversity of Valladolid
Spain
Oil extraction
GDP per capita
Population
+
+ Technology+
Geological Effort
-
Mental models…
Oil extraction
GDP per capita
Population
Geological Effort
Technology
+
+ +
-
“economic world”IPCC, WEC, IEA…
“geophysic world”ASPO, Laherrère…
Feedbacks!!!
Hubbert: If there are not demand constraints, World oil peak before 2000But there are demand constraints always!If ASPO are right the economic consequences of a declining oil extraction will cause feedback on the decline oil extraction
IPCC: We have plainty of resources.
But there are geophysical constraints in any case. World is not flat
We must consider feedbacks
Oil extraction
GDP per capita
Population
+
+ Technology+
Geological Effort
-
Net Energy
++
Rest of energies
+
Hypothesis “Hirsch”
Economic constraints
+
Energy lost
Oil extraction
GDP per capita
Population
+
+ Technology+
Geological Effort
-
Net Energy
++
Rest of energies
+
Geophysical constraints Reserves
Extraction
+
-
Hypothesis “Hubbert”
Hypothesis “Hall”
Oil extraction
GDP per capita
Population
+
+ Technology+
Geological Effort
-
Net Energy
++
Rest of energies
Hypothesis “UN”
Hypothesis “Ayres”
Net Energy
Rest of energies
Rest of energies
Non renewable energies(Coal, non-conventional oil, natural gas, uranium)
“optimistic scenario”:Renewables without economical or technological feedbacks. (Ad hoc)EROEI = ∞
Future energies(fusion…)
Renewable energies(biomass, hydro, rest)
World "renewables" energy production (Gboe/year)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
biomass
hydroelectricity
rest_of_renewables
fusion
Linear projection
Following population
Technical maximum (Zerta)
Needed to “not stop” growing
Model Hypothesis
• Hypothesis UN: World population following UN median estimations.• Hypothesis Ayres: technological innovation (Technology).
Technology = Min (b· TIME, 0.03)• Hypothesis Hubbert: Geological effort.
Effort = C · Annual extraction/Reserves• Hypothesis Hirsch: GDP-Energy relationship
GDP per cápita = A(t)· oil extraction + B(t)· energy production
Oil extraction = population + GDP percapita + Technology - Effort
time
Technology
3%
1985 2015
1
0
0.5
1985 2005 2035
B(t)
A(t)
year
Oil dependency
Energy dependency
World primary energy production (Gboe/year)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
biomass hydroelectricityrest_of_renewables fusioncoal extraction natural gas extractionnc oil extraction oil extractionuranium extraction Total production
“optimistic” scenario
World primary energy production (Gboe/year)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
biomass hydroelectricity rest_of_renewables
fusion coal extraction natural gas extraction
nc oil extraction oil extraction uranium extraction
Total production
World per capita GDP (1985 = 1)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
If there were a feedback from economy to technology and from economy to renewables?
Pessimistic scenario
Energy lost
Oil extraction
GDP per cápita
Population
+
+ Technology+
Geological Effort
-
Net Energy
++
Rest of energies
+
+
+Hypothesis “Meadows”
Technology = T0+Ln(GDPpercapita)
Renewables production = a + b· GDP percapita
+ +
Pessimistic scenario
World primary energy production (Gboe/year)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
biomass
hydroelectricity
rest_of_renewables
oil extraction
nc oil extraction
natural gas extraction
coal extraction
uranium extraction
Total production
Are “pessimists” pessimists or optimists?
World total oil extraction (Gboe/year)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
optimistic
pessimistic
ASPO
Laherrère
World cumulative CO2 emissions (GtCe)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
World - A1 ASF World - A1G MESSAGE
World - B1 MESSAGE World - B1 MINICAM
"optimistic model"
Optimistic scenario. Estimations of CO2e emissions. The estimated emissions are similar to the more optimistic emission predictions of the IPCC. We represent 4 of the most representatives but extremes SERS scenarios (IPCC2001). IPCC is only CO2 (not CO2e) but include CO2 from cement manufacture and other industrial process. Our CO2e is more or less the same as IPCC CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2005.
Dangerous level(including non fossil related emissions)
World per capita GDP (1985 = 1)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Pessimistic
Optimistic
Point of bifurcation, Now!!!
The end of present civilization
Our models show similarities with Chaotic systems
• References:
• ASPO2008: R. Koppelaar (2008). “Oil watch monthly”. ASPO-Netherlands. 24 January 2008.• Ayres2005: Ayres RU and J van den Bergh (2005): “A theory of economic growth with
material/energy resources and dematerialization: Interaction of three growth mechanisms” Ecological Economics 55(2005):96-118
• EWG2006: Energy Watch Group: “Uranium resources and nuclear energy” (2006). Germany. • EWG2007: Energy Watch Group: “Coal: resources and future production” (2007). Germany.• Farrell2007: Adam R. Brandt & Alexander E. Farrell (2007): “Scraping the bottom of the barrel:
greenhouse gas emission consequences of a transition to low-quality and synthetic petroleum resources”
• Hall2005: Hall C. and C Cleveland: “EROEI: definition, history and future implications”. ASPO-US conference, November 2005.
• Hirsch2008: R L. Hirsch (2008): “Mitigation of maximum world oil production: Shortage scenarios” Energy Policy 36 881–889
• Hubbert1956: MK Hubert: “Nuclear energy and the fossils fuels”. Spring Meeting (Texas) of the American Petroleum Institute.
• IIASA1998: “Global Energy Perspectives” Edited N. Nakicenovic, A. Grübler y A. McDonald. IIASA (Internacional Institute for Applied Systems Analysis).
• Laherrere2005: J. Laherrère (2005): "Forecasting production from discovery” ASPO-meeting. Lisbon May 19-20, 2005
• Meadows 2002: D. Meadows, J Rangders y D Meadows (2006): “Los límites del crecimiento 30 años después”. Galaxia Gutenberg y Círculo de Lectores.
• Meadows1972: “DH. Meadows et al.: “Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind”, New American Library, 1977
• WEO2004: World Energy Outlook. Internacional Energy Agency.• Zerta M, et al. “Alternative World Energy Outlook (AWEO) and the role of hydrogen in a
changing energy landscape”. Int J Hydrogen Energy (2008), doi:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2008.01.044
Hubbert Hypothesis
Ayres Hypothesis Hirsch Hypothesis
United NationsHypothesisMeadows Hypothesis
Non_discovered_resources Reserves Cumulative_production
Annual_discoveries Annual_producction
Former_annual_production
Effort
GDP_percapita_variation
Population_variation
Natural_demand_variation
Technology
Producction_variation
GDP
Hubbert Hypothesis
Non_discovered_resources Reserves Cumulative_production
Annual_producction
Producction_variation
Effort Former_annual_production
Natural_demand_variationnatural_discoveries_variationDiscoveries_variation
Former_annual_discoveries
Annual_discoveries
Effort_
hypothesis Hirsch: This hypothesis establishes the relationship between the energy production and the GDP and we base it on the conclusion of Hirsch (2008) who states that world oil production growth and world GDP growth are strongly connected.
1%
% offeroilinchangeGDPofchange
World annual growth
-0,05
0
0,05
0,1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
GDP variation
Oil variationpercapita GDP variation
Percentual variation of the GDP, per capita GDP and oil production. Sources: elaborated from BP2007, United Nations, wikipedia and WEO2004
Oil extraction
GDP per cápita
+
Energy
++
+
GDP per cápita = A(t)· oil extraction + B(t)· energy production
Oil extraction = population + GDP percápita + Technology - Effort
Hypothesis Meadows: This hypothesis, which we only use in the “pessimistic” models, describes the relationship between the technological innovation and GDP. It is based on the ideas of Meadows (1972, 2002) that established that the capital available for the technological advance depends on the GDP and if the growth stagnated it will tend to grow more slowly.
Technology = MIN(b*(TIME+20),0.02)*(a+LN(GDP per capita))
Renewables production = a + b· GDP per capita
Year (2005 <=> 0)
Technology1
GDP per cápita growth2
-20 0 20 40 60 80-0,08
-0,07
-0,06
-0,05
-0,04
-0,03
-0,02
-0,01
0,00
0,01
0,02
0,03
1
2
1
212
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
Hypothesis Hall: We will lose energy for the production of energy (energy return on energy investment concept, Hall2005). Following Hall, oil invested in energy production increases quickly relative to net oil production; exponentially? “Exponential ELost”: For each unit of a non renewable energy we lose
energy proportional to energy production modulated by an exponential over time.
“Effort ELost”, “Reserves EROEI”: The energy lost of a resources j depends approximately on the Effort of the rest of energies.
n
ii
T
jjjL EffortbE
EEcE
1)()( ··
tdL eoilEaoilE ·)·(·)(
j
jjRcb
REROEI
·)(
Oil energy lost (Gboe/year)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085
"Effort"
"Exponential"
Next 10 years we will lose 0,5-1Gboe/year more than now
Year (2005 <=> 0)
oil EROEI1
nc oil EROEI2
coal EROEI3
natural gas EROEI4
uranium EROEI5
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5 12
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
51
2
3
45
1
2
3
45
EROEI
oil 4
nc oil <2
natural gas 8
(LNG) 3
coal 17
uranium 2,5
MJCOupstream
MJCOusefulEROEI
/""
/""
2
2
n
iLost ijLj EE1
),()( E(j,i) is the energy of resource j to extract and process the resource i
c
Rb
E
EEE
iT
jiijL ··),(
n
ii
T
jjjL EffortbE
EEcE
1)()( ·· The more Ei the
more EL(j,i)
Proportional to Ej relative to ET
The less Reserves, the
more Energy to extract the resource i
j
jjRcb
REROEI
·)(
Energy intensity (Gboe/GDP)
Year (2005 <=> 0)
optimistic scenario1
IIASA min2
IIASA max3
pessimistic scenario4
0 50
0,002
0,003
0,004
0,005
0,006
0,007
0,008
0,009
0,010
1
2
34
12
3
4
• Hypothesis Hubbert : describes the idea established by Hubbert (1956): the discoveries of oil fields and the production of oil (the same apply to the rest of non renewable resources like non conventional oil, coal, gas or uranium) vary with the stocks of undiscovered resources and/or reserves respectively. Therefore the less stock there is to be extracted (discovered) the more difficult it is to increase the annual extraction of this resource.
URR (Gboe)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
oil nc oil natural gas coal uranium
PessimisticScenario
OptimisticScenario
Annual discoveries and production (Gbarrels)
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
5
1.900 1.920 1.940 1.960 1.980 2.000 2.020 2.040
Model discoveries
Model production
Discoveries
D w ith technology
Production
P w ith technology
Testing Hubbert (+ Ayres)
USA (-Alaska) oil discoveries and production.
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