world agricultural outlook board utilization of gis technology for agrometeorological applications...

World Agricultural Outlook Board

Utilization of GIS Technology for Agrometeorological Applications

Robert Stefanski and Ray MothaWorld Meteorological OrganizationU.S. Dept. of Agriculture

Minimum Temperatures in Winter Wheat AreasApril 13, 2004

100%

93%

49%18%

8%

OK

KS

NE

CO

TX

XX = Minimum Temperature

XX% = Percent Crop Jointing

= Minor Growing Area

= Major Growing Area

LEGEND

XX%(Source: NOAA)

(Source: NASS)World Agricultural Outlook BoardJoint Agricultural Weather Facility

• Several analytical techniques are used to monitor crop weather worldwide

– time series analyses– Historical analog comparisons– static maps– Depiction of ET, soil moisture

• Until recently, many maps were static and depicted just one variable, making it difficult to:

– overlay data sets– visualize and evaluate relationships– easily assess crop weather conditions

• Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have helped overcome these hurdles

0

25

50

75

100

125

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02

5 - WESTERN CORN BELTPercent of Normal Precipitation: May 1 to Dec 31

Introduction

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• GIS defined: method for organizing, displaying, and analyzing spatial data and their relationships using computers and compatible technologies

• GIS incorporates quantitative data directly into the system, helping users:– overlay multiple data sets

– create precise maps

– perform spatial analyses

• Numerous organizations use GIS to study, monitor, and model processes

GIS Described

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Simple GIS

Robust GIS

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USDA Forest Service

GIS Users

GIS used to map wildfire burn severity and tofocus efforts to minimize flooding and erosion

GIS used to map crop areasannually for selected states

GIS used to delineate field boundaries,map land use, and calculate acreages

GIS used to map various climatic parameters

- Generates gridded estimates of climatic parameters

- Moving-window regression of climate vs. elevation for each grid cell- Uses nearby station observations

- Spatial climate knowledge base weights stations in the regression function by their climatological similarity to the target grid cell

PRISM

Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model

Station WeightingCombined weight of a station is:

W = f {Wd, Wz, Wc, Wf, Wp, Wl, Wt, We}

- Distance- Elevation - Clustering- Topographic Facet

(orientation)

- Coastal Proximity- Vertical Layer (inversion)- Topographic Index (cold air

pooling)- Effective Terrain Height

(orographic profile)

http://www.ocs.orst.edu/prism/

GIS used to track tropical cyclones

GIS used to map flooding associatedwith a landfalling hurricane

• Software– ArcView 3.x

– ArcGIS 9.x

• Hardware– 7 Pentium IV desktop computers

• Processing speed 2.4 to 2.8 GHz

• 512 MB RAM

• Windows 2000/XP operating system

– PCs connected via local area network

– Oracle 9i database

WAOB GIS

• U.S. National Weather Service – synoptic/cooperative observer data

• WMO data important

• NWS/WMO data archived in DBMS

• Data describing extreme weather– tropical cyclone wind/coordinate data

– mesonetwork temp./precip. data

• USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) crop production, yield, and area data

• NASS weekly crop progress/condition data

Data

• WAOB GIS regularly used to create a variety of agricultural weather analyses

• Products grouped into three categories:– Manual, single-parameter

applications

– Automated, single-parameter applications

– Manual, multiple-parameter applications

USDA Agrometeorological GIS Applications

• Refer to those WAOB products that map one agricultural or meteorological parameter and are generally labor-intensive to create

• Created by manually converting raw data into GIS-compatible formats and then using a GUI to import and display these data in the GIS

• GUI also used to add text and legends to the crop and weather maps, and thus create the finished products

Manual, Single-Parameter Applications

Russia: Wheat

JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY (JAWF)

Major growing areas

Minor growing areas

LegendPercentages indicate each region's contribution to total national production. Regions not numbered contribute less than 1% to the national total.

22826

28

15

SiberiaRegion

Urals Region

NorthernRegion

VolgaRegion

CentralRegion

SouthernRegion

RussiaUkra ine

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Area depicted in map above

Lakes

FEB MAR

Wheat crop calendar for most of Russia

JAN MAYMAR APR DECAUGJUN JUL SEP OCT NOV

PLANTPLANT

HEADHEAD

HARVEST HARVEST

#

# Major and minor growing areas combined account for99% of total national production

Major growing areas combined account for 75% of totalnational production

Major and minor growing areas and country production percentages based upon averaged oblast-level data from 1996-2000.

#

Source: Sovecon Agrokhleb Bulletin Statistics and Forecasts February 18, 2003 Issue No.4 (41), 2002.

Pink = spring wheat

Blue = winter wheat

Russia: Wheat

JOINT AGRICULTURAL WEATHER FACILITY (JAWF)

Major growing areas

Minor growing areas

LegendPercentages indicate each region's contribution to total national production. Regions not numbered contribute less than 1% to the national total.

22826

28

15

SiberiaRegion

Urals Region

NorthernRegion

VolgaRegion

CentralRegion

SouthernRegion

RussiaUkra ine

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Area depicted in map above

Lakes

FEB MAR

Wheat crop calendar for most of Russia

JAN MAYMAR APR DECAUGJUN JUL SEP OCT NOV

PLANTPLANT

HEADHEAD

HARVEST HARVEST

#

# Major and minor growing areas combined account for99% of total national production

Major growing areas combined account for 75% of totalnational production

Major and minor growing areas and country production percentages based upon averaged oblast-level data from 1996-2000.

#

Source: Sovecon Agrokhleb Bulletin Statistics and Forecasts February 18, 2003 Issue No.4 (41), 2002.

Pink = spring wheat

Blue = winter wheat

Crop Production Data – Internet

U.S. Corn

Crop Production Data – Excel

U.S. Corn

Crop Production Data – ArcView

U.S. Corn

Weather Analyses – Text File

Text file, comma-delimited WMO data

Note latitude/longitude data in addition to weather data

Weather Analyses – GIS Table

Weather Analyses – Data Plotted

Weather Analyses – Data Contoured

• Similar to manual, single-parameter applications in that one agricultural or meteorological parameter is displayed and analyzed on each map, however, the process for creating these products has been automated

• Product creation process can be time consuming and tedious if a large number of products are desired and these products are created manually

• Automation significantly reduces the time and labor required to produce these products

Automated, Single-Parameter Applications

• Object-oriented programming language, enables users to automate various tasks associated with mapping

• Examples of automation:– loading data

– spatial analysis (e.g., contouring)

– defining map scale/extent

– annotation

– creating a map legend

– exporting/printing a map

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Avenue Scripts

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Daily Plot Maps

Empty, partially filled, and completely filled green circles symbolize precipitation amounts

Blue number = minimum temperature

Red number = maximum temperature

Green number = precipitation

Color Contour Maps

WesternCape

EasternCape

NorthernCape

OrangeFreeState

KwaZuluNatal

North-West

NorthernProvince

Mpum.Gau.

NAMIBIABOTSWANA

ZIMBABWE

LESOTHO

MOZAMBIQUE

ZAMBIAANGOLA

SWAZ.

INDIANOCEAN

Percent of Normal

< 25 % 25 - 50 %

50 - 75 % 75 - 100 %100 - 125 %125 - 150 %150 - 200 %

> 200 %

Precip. = 0

Percent of Normal

< 25 % 25 - 50 %

50 - 75 % 75 - 100 %100 - 125 %125 - 150 %150 - 200 %

> 200 %

Precip. = 0

Southern AfricaPercent of Normal Precipitation

December 1, 2001 - December 31, 2001

• Refer to those WAOB products that map two or more agrometeorological parameters and are generally labor-intensive to create

• Demonstrate the significant overlay capabilities of GIS, specifically the ability to visualize – and quantify – the percent of agriculture affected by various types of weather

• Often typify the special crop weather assessments prepared by WAOB meteorologists in response to extreme or severe weather

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Manual, Multiple-Parameter Applications

Minimum Temperatures in Winter Wheat AreasApril 13, 2004

100%

93%

49%18%

8%

OK

KS

NE

CO

TX

XX = Minimum Temperature

XX% = Percent Crop Jointing

= Minor Growing Area

= Major Growing Area

LEGEND

XX%(Source: NOAA)

(Source: NASS)World Agricultural Outlook BoardJoint Agricultural Weather Facility

Crop Weather Analyses – Hurricane Frances

Crop Weather Analyses – Hurricane Ivan

• In 1999, government and university scientists began working together to produce the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product designed to provide a single snapshot of the spatial extent and intensity of drought in U.S.

• Drought experts from four agencies are responsible for coordinating USDM production each week

• On a rotating basis, an individual from one of these agencies serves as product author for the week, and typically authors the product for 2 weeks.

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U.S. Drought Monitor – Background

• Each Monday, author consults data from numerous sources– quantitative observational networks

– model output

– satellite and radar imagery

– subjective reports

• Author uses these data to prepare a first draft of the USDM for that week

• Draft distributed via email list-server to approximately 150 people, including fellow authors and climate and water experts from around the country.

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U.S. Drought Monitor - Methodology

1st draft

1st draft

1st draft

1st draft

2nd draft

2nd draft

2nd draft

2nd draft

3rd draft

3rd draft

3rd draft

3rd draft

FINAL

FINAL

FINAL

FINAL

• Members of drought list provide author feedback, used to refine USDM

• Through iterative process, author prepares and distributes 2-3 drafts of the USDM during Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of each week to obtain the best product possible.

• Final product and an accompanying text summary posted every Thursday at 0830 LT on the USDM web site: (http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html)

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U.S. Drought Monitor - Methodology

• Originally prepared using CorelDraw– unable to overlay indices

– quantitative analysis not possible

• USDM authors switched to ArcGIS

• Authors obtained professional training– draw drought areas

– annotate map

– print/export product

• Initial difficulties using GIS blamed on– author inexperience

– deadlines limiting troubleshooting time

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U.S. Drought Monitor - Software

Thank You !