workforce conditions & outlook presented to the consensus economic forecasting commission...
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Workforce conditions& outlook
Presented to theConsensus Economic Forecasting Commission
January 30, 2014
Glenn MillsChief Economist
Center for Workforce ResearchMaine Dept. of Labor
www.maine.gov/labor/cwri
Glenn.mills@maine.gov 207-621-5192
Labor force & unemployment(household survey)
Unemployment rates continue to trend lowerJa
n-08 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n-09 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n-10 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n-11 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n-12 Apr Ju
lO
ctJa
n-13 Apr Ju
lO
ct
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10% U.S.
Maine
As in previous years, revisions to 2013 unemployment rates are likely to show a much smoother trend
Jan-
11
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Jan-
12
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
Nov
Jan-
13
Mar
May Ju
l
Sep
Nov
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%Previous Preliminary Estimates
Revised Rates
Approximate Revisions for 2013
A rising share of employed population continues to be the primary factor in lower unemployment rates in Maine. The U.S. share of employed population remains flat –
unemployment rate declines continue to be solely due to lower labor force participation.
Jan-
08
May
Sep
Jan-
09
May
Sep
Jan-
10
May
Sep
Jan-
11
May
Sep
Jan-
12
May
Sep
Jan-
13
May
Sep
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
U.S.Maine
Em
ploy
men
t to
Pop
ulat
ion
Rat
io (
Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted)
Expected revisions are likely to smooth 2013 estimates
Jan-
08
May
Sep
Jan-
09
May
Sep
Jan-
10
May
Sep
Jan-
11
May
Sep
Jan-
12
May
Sep
Jan-
13
May
Sep
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
U.S.MaineApproximate Revisions for 2013
Em
ploy
men
t to
Pop
ulat
ion
Rat
io
(Sea
sona
lly A
djus
ted)
Payroll Jobs
Payroll job estimates for most months since September 2012 will be revised higher. Growth continues to be
concentrated in three sectors: professional & business services, education & healthcare, and leisure & hospitality.
Jan-
07M
ayS
epJa
n-08
May
Sep
Jan-
09M
ayS
epJa
n-10
May
Sep
Jan-
11M
ayS
epJa
n-12
May
Sep
Jan-
13M
ayS
ep
590,000
600,000
610,000
620,000Benchmarked Official Job CountEstimates (to be revised in March)Likely Revisions
Job growth has accelerated after briefly slowing
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Ove
r the
Yea
r Cha
nge
in N
onfa
rmPa
yrol
l Job
s (in
thou
sand
s)
The level of job churn remains modestlybelow pre-recession levels…
2005
.1
2005
.3
2006
.1
2006
.3
2007
.1
2007
.3
2008
.1
2008
.3
2009
.1
2009
.3
2010
.1
2010
.3
2011
.1
2011
.3
2012
.1
2012
.3
2013
.1
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Gross Job GainsGross Job Losses
Priv
ate
Sect
or G
ross
Job
Chan
ge(S
easo
nally
-adj
uste
d)
…Job gains from expanding employers are graduallytrending up and job losses from contractions have flattened…
2005
.1
2005
.3
2006
.1
2006
.3
2007
.1
2007
.3
2008
.1
2008
.3
2009
.1
2009
.3
2010
.1
2010
.3
2011
.1
2011
.3
2012
.1
2012
.3
2013
.1
22,000
26,000
30,000
34,000
ExpansionsContractions
Priv
ate
Sect
or G
ross
Num
ber o
f Job
s(S
easo
nally
-adj
uste
d)
…Job gains from openings and losses from closings continue to gradually trend lower
2005
.1
2005
.3
2006
.1
2006
.3
2007
.1
2007
.3
2008
.1
2008
.3
2009
.1
2009
.3
2010
.1
2010
.3
2011
.1
2011
.3
2012
.1
2012
.3
2013
.1
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
OpeningsClosings
Priv
ate
Sect
or G
ross
Num
ber o
f Job
s(S
easo
nally
-adj
uste
d)
More demographic
considerations
As we move through the lifecycle, our attachment to the labor force is highest between age 25 and 54
before declining at an accelerating rate with age...
16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Empl
oym
ent t
o Po
pula
tion
Ratio
…This decade a very large share of the population is aging beyond their peak years of labor force attachment
(Population by year of age if there were no migration in or out of Maine)
15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 758,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
2010 2017 2022
Age
…And Maine has an unusually large share ofBaby Boomers and a low share of young people
who will be entering the workforce
0 5 10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
U.S. Maine
Age
Perc
ent o
f Tot
al P
opul
ation
in 2
012
The population in their peak years of labor force participation is declining rapidly
16-1
9
20-2
4
25-3
4
35-4
4
45-5
4
55-6
4
65-6
9
70-7
4
75+0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
Projected Population Change (right scale)Labor Force Participation Rate 2012 (left scale)Labor Force Participation Rate 2000 to 2007 Average (left scale)
Labo
r For
ce P
artic
ipati
on R
ates
Proj
ecte
d Po
pula
tion
Chan
ge 2
012-
2017
We can no longer count on a natural increase in population…
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Natural Change (right scale)Births (left scale)Deaths (left scale)
Birt
hs a
nd D
eath
s
Nat
ural
Cha
nge
…We will need an increase to 1970s levels of net in-migration to maintain a stable workforce
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
-4,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
Net MigrationNatural Change
Net
Cha
nge
from
Prio
r Yea
r
AppendixRecent trends in payroll jobs
Highlights:• Growing sectors tend to be human capital intensive, often requiring
specialized education, knowledge, or skills:• Healthcare & social services, professional & business services, and educational
services.• Leisure & hospitality, which tends to be labor intensive, also is growing.
• Jobs in sectors that make, move, or sell physical products generally have stabilized, but there is no significant growth:• Manufacturing, construction, wholesale &retail trade, and transportation,
warehousing & utilities.
• All three levels of government continue to shed jobs.• The experience of those displaced from labor intensive work generally
does not match the education and skill requirements of growing sectors.
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13585
595
605
615
625
Total Nonfarm Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
13485
495
505
515
525
Total Private Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked NF JobsEstimated Jobs (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1354
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
Professional & Business Services Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1358
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
Leisure & Hospitality Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job Count
Estimates (to be revised March 2014)
Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1397
98
99
100
101
102
Healthcare & Social Assistance Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1318
19
20
21
22
Educational Services Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job Count
Estimates (to be revised March 2014)
Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1330
31
32
33
34
Financial Activities Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1316
17
18
19
20
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job Count
Estimates (to be revised March 2014)
Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1318
19
20
21
22
Wholesale Trade Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1380
82
84
86
88
Retail Trade Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1323
25
27
29
31
Construction Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1348
50
52
54
56
58
60
Manufacturing Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job Count
Estimates (to be revised March 2014)
Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
137
8
9
10
11
12
Information Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1313
15
17
19
Federal Government Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
TemporaryCensusJobs
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1325
26
27
28
29
State Government Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job Count
Estimates (to be revised March 2014)
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
Jan-
10
Jan-
11
Jan-
12
Jan-
1357
58
59
60
61
62
63
Local Government Jobs(seasonally adjusted in thousands)
Benchmarked Job CountEstimates (to be revised March 2014)Likely Revisions
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