wmst 245 innovations – and their adoption. cogito ergo sum (ithink therefore iam)

WMST 245INNOVATIONS – AND THEIR ADOPTION

Cogito Ergo Sum (iThink Therefore iAm)

iPod Advertisement 2004, featuring U2 performing “Vertigo”

iPod Advertisement May 2006

iPod Advertisement 2008

iPod Sales, Quarterly 2001-2007

iPod Sales – Total, 2001-2007

iPod SalesiPods Sold iPods Sold(This Quarter) (Total)

12/31/2001 125,000 125,0003/31/2002 57,000 182,0006/30/2002 54,000 236,0009/30/2002 145,000 381,000

12/31/2002 219,000 600,0003/31/2003 80,000 680,0006/30/2003 304,000 984,0009/30/2003 336,000 1,320,000

12/31/2003 733,000 2,053,0003/31/2004 807,000 2,860,0006/30/2004 860,000 3,720,0009/30/2004 2,016,000 5,736,000

12/31/2004 4,500,000 10,236,0003/31/2005 5,311,000 15,547,0006/30/2005 6,155,000 21,702,0009/30/2005 6,451,000 28,153,000

12/31/2005 14,043,000 42,196,0003/31/2006 8,526,000 50,722,0006/30/2006 8,111,000 58,833,0009/30/2006 8,729,000 67,562,000

12/31/2006 21,066,000 88,628,0003/31/2007 10,549,000 99,177,0006/30/2007 9,815,000 108,992,0009/30/2007 10,200,000 119,192,000

12/31/2007 22,121,000 141,313,0003/31/2008 10,644,000 151,957,0006/30/2008 11,011,000 162,968,0009/30/2008 11,052,000 174,020,000

12/31/2008 22,727,000 196,747,0003/31/2009 11,013,000 207,760,0006/30/2009 10,215,000 217,975,0009/30/2009 10,177,000 228,152,000

12/31/2009 20,970,000 249,122,000

Quarterly iPod Sales Figures

Date

“Today Apple announced that after 5 years of selling ipods, they’ve sold 100 million on them. The ipod has dethroned Sony’s Walkman as “the fastest selling

music player in history.” Poor Walkman.” Posted April 9, 2007

Footnote: Sony sold 150 million Walkmans from 1979 to 1995, and possibly 340 million to date

The Next Generation - iPhones

The Third Generation - iPads

Classical Adoption Curve for an Innovation Everett Rogers (1962) “Diffusion of Innovations”

Adoption of Innovations by Different Groups of People

Innovators: (a) venturesome - desire for the rash, the daring, and the risky; (b) control of substantial financial resources to absorb possible loss from an unprofitable innovation; (c) ability to understand and apply complex technical knowledge; (d) ability to cope with a high degree of

uncertainty.

Early Adopters: (a) integrated part of the local social system; (b) greatest degree of opinion leadership in most systems; (c) serve as role model for other members or society; (d) respected by peers; (e) successful.

Early Majority: (a) interact frequently with peers; (b) seldom hold positions of opinion leadership; (c) one-third of the members of a system, making the early majority the largest category; (d) deliberate before adopting a new idea.

Late Majority: (a) one-third of the members of a system; (b) pressure from peers; (c) economic necessity; (d) skeptical; (e) cautious.

Laggards: (a) possess no opinion leadership; (b) isolates; (c) point of reference in the past; (d) suspicious of innovations; (e) innovation-decision process is lengthy; (f) resources are limited.

Laggards are very set in their ways, and will only adopt an innovation when it has become mainstream i.e. standard practice in an organisation

Technology Adoption?

WOMEN FARMERS AND TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION

• Women lack secure land tenure and titles to land

• Women lack access to finance (credit) and inputs (seeds, fertilizer, water, tools)

• Technologies may not be designed for women’s farming systems

• Women may be illiterate or have limited education

• Women may lack access to media of extension methods, such as radio

• Extension agents may ignore women farmers, or not interact well with them

• Extension agents may not communicate well in the local language

• The extension service may not be trained to work with groups, which work best for women farmers

• In some cultures, male extensions agents are not permitted to talk to women farmers

• There may be very small numbers of women extension agents, who concentrate on home economics rather than farm management

• Problems faced by women farmers may not be communicated to research

• There may be very small numbers of women scientists

THE 20TH CENTURY WAS THE MOST REMARKABLE IN THE HISTORY OF

AGRICULTURE

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INCREASED HUGELY DUE TO:

• MORE FERTILIZER

• NEW HIGH YIELDING CROP VARIETIES

• INVESTMENTS IN IRRIGATION

• BETTER CROP PROTECTION

• MECHANIZATION

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INCREASED IN THE 20TH CENTURY

• 1930-1980 MAIZE YIELDS QUADRUPLED IN THE USA

• 1950-1986 WHEAT YIELDS TRIPLED IN THE WORLD (770 TO 2,160 KG/HA)

• 1965-1980 RICE PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD GREW AT 3.2 PERCENT PER YEAR

1985-2020 WE NEED CEREAL YIELDS TO INCREASE BY MORE THAN 56 PERCENT [1.3 % P.A.] TO FEED A WORLD POPULATION PROJECTED AT 7.8 BILLION. CAN WE DO IT?

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY INCREASED IN THE 20TH CENTURY

World Average Crop Yields (metric tons per hectare)

Crop 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 % incr.

Maize 1.94 2.35 3.16 3.68 4.27 120

Rice (Paddy) 1.87 2.38 2.75 3.53 3.90 109

Wheat 1.09 1.49 1.86 2.56 2.74 151

Sorghum 0.89 1.13 1.30 1.36 1.38 55

Lentils 0.53 0.57 0.59 0.80 0.89 68

CEREAL PRODUCTION INCREASED ALMOST THREE TIMES

LAND PLANTED TO CEREALS STAYED THE SAME

CEREAL PRODUCTION INCREASED MORE THAN POPULATION

Year Cereal Area (million ha)

Cereal Yield (tons/ha)

Cereal Production (million tons)

World Population (billions)

1961 648 1.35 877 3.0822006 674 3.30 2,221 6.525% incr. 4 144 153 112

TWO BIG THINGS HAPPENED IN AGRICULTURE IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

PLANT NUTRITION DISCOVERIES LED TO A HUGE FERTILIZER INDUSTRY:

1900 2 MILLION TONS 1939 9 MILLION TONS1955 21 MILLION TONS 1965 31 MILLION TONS1975 90 MILLION TONS 2005 157 MILLION TONS

MENDEL’S LAWS OF GENETICS WERE REDISCOVERED ABOUT 1900 BY:

• HUGO DE VRIES (HOLLAND)• CARL CORRENS (GERMANY)• ERICH VON TSCHERMAK-SEYSENEGG (AUSTRIA)

EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (1): Gregor Johann Mendel (1822-1884)

EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (2): Hugo de Vries (1848-1935)

EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (3): Carl Correns (1864-1933)

EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (4): Erich von Tschermak-Seysenegg (1871-1962)

EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (5): Barbara McClintock (1902-1992) First genetic map for maize

Nobel Prize for Medicine or Physiology for discovery of genetic transposition

THE BIG GAINS IN SCIENTIFIC AGRICULTURE CAME AFTER 1945 (WW II)

IN JAPAN, RICE YIELDS INCREASED BY:

15 % 1550-1720 (MORE SYSTEMATIC IRRIGATION)50 % 1721-1944 (BEGINNINGS OF CROP BREEDING)100 % 1945-1985 (MORE BREEDING, HEAVY FERTILIZER USE,

PLANT PROTECTION CHEMICALS)

IN SPITE OF EVIDENCE FROM THE HIGH INCOME COUNTRIES, PEOPLE REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE LOW INCOME COUNTRIES (PADDOCK BROS.; PAUL EHRLICH)

THE GREEN REVOLUTION SWEPT IN MID TO LATE 1960s

THE GREEN REVOLUTION

“HISTORY RECORDS NO INCREASE IN FOOD PRODUCTION THAT WAS REMOTELY COMPARABLE IN SCALE, SPEED, SPREAD AND DURATION” – LIPTON & LONGHURST (1989)

TERM “GREEN REVOLUTION” COINED BY WILLIAM S. GAUD (Former Administrator of USAID)

1950-1985 INCREASED PRODUCTION OF CEREALS FROM:

AREA (Multiple cropping)(25%); VARIETIES (23%); FERTILIZER (33%); IRRIGATION (8%); OTHER FACTORS (11%)

A “FATHER” OF THE GREEN REVOLUTION: Norman Borlaug (1914- 2009), Winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, 1970

Progress in a Food Innovation

Worldwide Cereal Yield, 1961-1999

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

Yie

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(m

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Trend

Slowing Progress in a Food Innovation

Average Growth Rates in Cereal Yields 1966-1999

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

An

nu

al R

ate

of

Gro

wth

(%

)

Average Grow th Rates in Yieldsfor Previous 5 Years

Log. (Average Grow th Rates inYields for Previous 5 Years)

INNOVATIONS IN THE iPOD

• Flash memory

• Click wheel (user interface)

• Music store

• Software (and compatibility)

• Sound quality

• Looks (font face)

• Batteries & chargers

• Earphones

INNOVATIONS IN WHEAT

• Dwarf stature – new architecture• Less susceptible to lodging• Higher harvest index – ratio of grain

to straw/leaves• Photoperiod insensitivity• Great tillering ability• Grain dormancy in the head• Short duration• Responsive to nutrients• Resistant to pests & diseases

PIETER BRUEGHELTHE ELDERThe Harvesters (1565) – Note height of wheat

COLLECTING MODERN WHEAT HEAD SAMPLES - Note height of wheat Source: USDA www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=13779

LESSONS FROM THE GREEN REVOLUTION

• CROP YIELDS CAN GO HIGHER YET (range 5 to 25 tons/ha grain equivalent cf 2.75 tons on our average farm)

• ONCE HIGHER YIELDS ATTAINED, NEEDS MUCH HIGHER FOR MAINTENANCE RESEARCH

• MOST GAINS FROM INCREASED HARVEST INDEX RATHER THAN INCREASED BIOMASS

• INVESTMENTS IN PLANT BREEDING & CROP IMPROVEMENT HAVE HIGH RATES OF RETURN

• FUTURE GAINS: COMBINATION OF BREEDING & BETTER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT