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WMO UNEP WMO UNEP
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
WMO UNEP
IPCC Good Practice Guidance
Simon Eggleston
Technical Support Unit
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme
IPCC
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
National Systems
Should be designed and operated to enable Parties included in Annex 1 to consistently estimate anthropogenic emission by all sources and removals by all sinks of all GHGs, as covered by the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and IPCC good practice guidance, in accordance with relevant decisions of the COP and/or COP/MOP
– FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add13, Decision 20.CP.7 Annex 1 Art 9
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
What are the IPCC Guidelines?
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (3 Volumes)
Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National greenhouse Gas Inventories (2000)
Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003)
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
What is Good Practice?
Assists countries in producing inventories that are accurate in the sense of being neither over nor underestimates so far as can be judged, and in which uncertainties are reduced as far as possible
Gives a way to manage uncertainties
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Good Practice…
Supports the development of inventories that are: Transparent Documented Consistent over time Complete Comparable Assessed for uncertainties Subject to quality control and assurance Efficient in the use of resources available to
inventory agencies In which uncertainties are gradually reduced as
better information becomes available
WMO UNEP WMO UNEP
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
WMO UNEP
Key Source Analysis & Methodological Choice
What is it and why is it important?
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Key Source Analysis
Identifies sources with significant impact on total emissions or trend
The largest accounting for 95% of emissions are “KEY SOURCES” Not include LULUCF
Additional qualitative criteria as well
Assessment of trend as well
Can also include uncertainty information
Suggested aggregation of sectors in guidance
Expect this to identify 10-20 sources
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Key Source Analysis
Outcomes Higher tier methodologies should be used for Key
Sectors Additional attention to QA/QC of key sources Resources are focused on sources with significant
impact on total emission estimate Best use of available resources Reduce uncertainties as much as practical
Key Category analysis for LULUCF Similar to Key Sector including LULUCF Do as well as Key Source
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Methodological Choice
Guided by Key source analysis
Decision trees in GPG 2000 and 2003
Tier 1 are simple methods with default values
Tier 2 are similar but with country specific emission factors and other data
Tier 3 are more complex approaches, possibly models. However should be compatible with lower tiers.
START
Fuel S tatisticsby Locm otive
type?
Is this a KeySource?
CalculateEm ission using Eq
3.4.2
CalcultateEm ission using Eq
3.4.1
Box 2: Tier 2
Box 1: Tier 1
Yes
No
No
Estim ate FuelCousum ption byLocom otive type
Yes
CountrySpecific 1 Data
Available
CalculateEm ission usingdetailled m odel
and factors
Box 1: Tier 3
Yes
No
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Data Needs
Again GPG 2000 and 2003 give guidance on
activity data needed for different tiers
QA/QC of data
Checking
Documentation requirements
Aim should be data that is representative, reliable and consistent over time
WMO UNEP WMO UNEP
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
WMO UNEP
Uncertainty Evaluations
Causes of uncertainty and how to deal with it
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Uncertainty Evaluation
An essential part of an inventory Helps prioritise efforts to improve accuracy Guide decisions on methodological choice Most inventories and sources are reasonably
reliable HOWEVER some sources may be order of
magnitude estimates Difficult or impossible to quantify and completely
characterise all inventory uncertainties Pragmatic approach - Use best available data and
expert judgement
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Uncertainties
Need uncertainties in all parameters used, preferably need pdf as well (activity data AND emission factors) Use 95% confidence interval
These need to be documented, reviewed and used to estimate total inventory uncertainty
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0.5
1.0
1.5
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Example Emission Rate
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PDF CDF
95% ProbabilityRange
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0 1 2 3
Example Emission Rate
Pro
bab
ility
De
nsi
ty
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Cum
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Pro
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PDF CDF
95% ProbabilityRange
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Sources of Uncertainty Estimates
Measurement errors Uncertainties in factors Use of Statistics Application of emission factors Representivity (or lack of it!) Expert Judgement – expert elicitation Models – applicability
WMO UNEP WMO UNEP
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
WMO UNEP
Recalculations
What to do if consistent time series methodology not
possible
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Recalculations
Why?
Available data changed
Previous method not good practice
A source category has become key
Cannot transparently reflect mitigation
Inventory capacity increased
New methods become available
New sources identified
Errors corrected
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Recalculations
Good practice to use same method and consistent data for all years
If not possible:
Try new methods to get data
Splicing Overlap (best)
Surrogate
Interpolation
Trend Extrapolation
Documentation!
WMO UNEP WMO UNEP
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
WMO UNEP
QA/QC
What, Why and How?
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Control
is a system of routine technical activities, to measure and control the quality of the inventory as it is being developed. The QC system is designed to:
Provide routine and consistent checks to ensure data integrity, correctness, and completeness;
Identify and address errors and omissions;
Document and archive inventory material and record all QC activities.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Assurance
Quality Assurance (QA) activities include a planned system of review procedures conducted by personnel not directly involved in the inventory compilation/ development process.
Reviews, preferably by independent third parties, should be performed upon a finalised inventory following the implementation of QC procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
QA/QC – Major Elements
An inventory agency responsible for coordinating QA/QC activities;
A QA/QC plan;
General QC procedures (Tier 1);
Source category-specific QC procedures (Tier 2);
QA review procedures;
Reporting, documentation, and archiving procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Control (Tier 1)
Check assumptions and selection of data are documented
Check for transcription errors and references Check units and conversion factors Check integrity of database files Check data consistency between sources Check movement of data between steps correct Check uncertainties are estimated correctly Undertake review of documentation Check recalculations Make completeness checks Compare estimates to previous ones
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Control (Tier 2)
Focus on key sources
Where used check if IPCC defaults appropriate
QA/QC of country specific factors
QA/QC of direct emissions
Emission comparisons Order of magnitude checks
Reference calculations
QA/QC of national data from secondary sources
QC of uncertainty estimates
WMO UNEP WMO UNEP
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
WMO UNEP
Review and Documentation
Critical Steps
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Review (not UNFCCC!)
Expert peer review By relevant technical experts
Not and Audit
Can be supplemented by stakeholder review and public review mechanisms
Document review and inventory response
Audits Check compliance with minimum QC specifications
and QC plan
Check both Inventory QC and source specific QC
Can occur at various stages in inventory development
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Documentation
Assumptions and criteria for selection of activity data and emission factors;
Emission factors used, including references; Activity data or sufficient information to it to be traced to the
referenced source; Information on the uncertainty associated with activity data and
emission factors; Rationale for choice of methods; Methods used, including those used to estimate uncertainty; Changes in data inputs or methods from previous years; Individuals providing expert judgement for uncertainty estimates; Databases or software used and any information required for their
use; Worksheets and interim calculations for source category estimates
and aggregated estimates and any recalculations of previous estimates;
Final inventory report and any analysis of trends from previous years;
QA/QC plans and outcomes of QA/QC procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Conclusions
IPCC Good Practice Guidance
Key Source analysis and Methodological Choice
Uncertainty evaluations
Recalculations
Quality Control and Assurance
Review
Documentation
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