widespread recognition of water scarcity threat, especially in agriculture …but much can be done

A vision of water for food challenges and opportunities beyond 2020

Jonathan Woolley, Director CPWF

Widespread recognition of water scarcity threat, especially in agriculture…but much can be done

Opportunities (examples): Better management of rainwater Sharing of resources, not just waterInnovative ways for people to work together.

Main points

Agriculture is a huge water user, and a huge opportunity

2 - 5 litres

daily

20 – 500 litres

daily500 – 3000 litres

per kg2000 l/day - vegetarian diet5000 l/day - grainfed meat diet

Opportunity: better management of rainwater

Action to deal with the water crisis

Today

CA Scenario

Practices like today

Comprehensive Assessment (CA) scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation,

trade

Range of Agricultural Water Management Options(source David Molden, IWMI)

8

Upgrading rainfed systems

Rainwater management has a high potential for increasing livelihood resilience through crops, fisheries and livestock

Opportunity: sharing of benefits from water

Win-win situations are rare in water. Need to share.

Sharing goes beyond WATER sharing, to assigning water to higher value uses, and sharing the BENEFITS with those who give up water.

Example: urban-based trust funds invest in upland farming practices

Sharing: Locally

Local adaptation to climate change

“Sharing” at present is export of food from water rich to water scarce countries. Only about 6% of agricultural water use involved

Climate change to 2070 is predicted to increase cereal production in temperate latitudes, while reducing it in tropical latitudes

Total food production likely to be sufficient until 2070. How will it be shared?

Sharing: International

Opportunity: ways of working together

Resolving complex issues

Far

from

Certainty

Ag

reem

en

t

Close to Far from

Clo

se to Simple

Plan, control

Zone of Complexity

Technically Complicated Experiment, coordinate expertise

SociallyComplicated Build relationships, create common ground

Source: Patton, 2007

Formulaic solutions have limited applicability

Past success is no guarantee of future success

Expertise can help but is not sufficient; relationships are key

Uncertainty of outcome remains

New ways of working

Diversity of people increases innovation

“Complex multi-sector problems need new ways of working: The really important issues facing society … cannot be tackled by any organization acting alone” Huxham and Vangen, 2005

“While hierarchies are not vanishing, profound changes in the nature of technology, demographics, and the global economy are giving rise to powerful new models of production based on community, collaboration, and self-organization rather than on hierarchy and control.”Tapscott and Williams, 2006.

CPWF: www.waterandfood.org

CA: www.iwmi.cgiar.org/Assessment/