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Who Can and Should Finance Infrastructure?
Lessons from International Data
September 19, 2017
Ricardo Bebczuk
Chief Economist – BICE, Argentina
Bank Negara Malaysia – World Bank GroupGlobal Symposium on Development Financial Institutions
My point in a nutshell
� There´s clearly an infrastructure gap, in an era of fiscal deficits
� Innovative responses from the private and public sector exist
� But they are unlikely to have a massive impact in filling such gap
� So the non-financial public sector will remain the chief provider and financier
Financing the Infrastructure Gap:Private and Public Alternatives
Infrastructure Gap
+
Overall fiscal deficits
Market-Based
Non-budgetary
solutions
Government-Based
A New Insfrastructure Game?
� State guarantees
� Development banks (and IFIs)
More suitable for:
Emerging economies without
good governance and investor protection
� Domestic institutional investors
� Foreign Capital
More suitable for:
Advanced economies with
good governance and investor protection
Actual versus Required Infrastructure Spending in LAC (% of GDP)
Source: Serebrisky et al., IDB, 2015.
1197
499
757
1554
715660
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Developed Emerging LAC
1980 2015
Public Infrastructure Spending, in US$ (ppp) per capita
Source: IDB (forthcoming, 2018).
Market-based solutions:
What makes infrastructure financing attractive to private investors?
� Monopoly and high entry barriers
� Long economic life
� Stable and predictable operating cash flows
� Low correlation with economic cycle
Market-based solutions:
What are the risks of infrastructure financing?
� High (and irreversible) investment
� Long gestation
� Unanticipated changes in input prices (during construction phase)
� Political and regulatory risk, including contract repudiation
0.75
9.79
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Argentina Rest of South America
Argentina: Price of residential electricity (US$ per 100 KWh) in 2015
after 2002 freeze in utility tariffs
Pension Funds (and other II) in the Infrastructure Business: Pros and Cons (from fund manager viewpoint)
� Pros:
� Maturity match
� Low correlation with other financial assets
� Cons:
� Heterogeneity and opacity in the infrastructure sector
� Lack of experience in managing this asset class
� Regulatory barriers and bias against unlisted vehicles (mainly in emerging countries)
� Investor´s short-term horizon
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
OECD Countries Non-OECD Countries
Pension Fund Assets: Size and Infrastructure Share
Source: OECD (2016), Della Croce and Yermo (2013) and PPIAF (2014).
Non-OECD CountriesAssets =
36.3% of GDP
OECD CountriesAssets =
123.6% of GDP
% Infrastructure = 1.6% of total
% Infrastructure = 0.5% of total
National Development Banks in the Infrastructure Business: Pros and Cons
� Pros:
� Focus on long-term projects with positive externalities
� Cons:
� Conflict of interest in the event of renegotiations and default
� NDBs are typically small, so infrastructure finance may give rise to:
� Crowding-out, jeopardizing other goals such as SME financial assistance
� Poor portfolio diversification
� Contingent government obligations, when assistance takes the form of
mezzanine debt or guarantees
Out of 90 NDBs around the globe, just 4% have an explicit mandate to finance infrastructure(Luna Martínez and Vicente, 2012)
11.5%
4.3%
1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7%
0.02%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
BNDES(Brazil)
ICO (Spain) COFIDE (Peru) NAFIN(Mexico)
BANCOMEXT(Mexico)
BICE(Argentina)
BANCOLDEX(Colombia)
FDN(Colombia)
Source: Own elaboration based on annual Reports and Central Banks. Data as of 2015.
Development Banks in Latin America and Spain: Stock of Loans to GDP
Recall: LA requires an additional annual infrastructure investment of 2.0%-2.5% of GDP
Is Foreign Saving the Answer in LAC (and the world)?
Foreign SavingGross National Investment Rate
Domestic Saving% of GDP
Source: ECLAC. Data for LAC.
Back to Budget:Why it´s still a government problem
Infrastructure as a Public Good
� Non-rivalrous and non-excludable
� Externalities
� Social purpose
� Textbook case of a public good
� Textbook funding solution:
First resort: Public funding
Last resort: Private funding
Government Budget:
60%
Private Finance: 23%
National DBs:
10%
IFIs:
7%
Sources of Infrastructure Financing in Emerging Economies (% of total)
Source: Own elaboration based on Bhattacharya and Romani (2013).
Source: McKinsey (2013).
Government Share of Infrastructure Investment (in % of total)
6369
30
27
7 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Infrastructure Investment Corporate Investment
Own funds Debt Equity
Source: Own elaboration based on McKinsey 2013 (infrastructure figures) and Enterprise Surveys, World Bank, 2012 (corporate investment).
Financing Infrastructure and Corporate Investment: Two Different Worlds?International averages, in % of total funding
About Governments and Infrastructure in Emerging Countries
� Governments in emerging countries, and LAC in particular, have since the 2000s:
� Enjoyed tax revenue bonanzas
� Greatly increased overall and current expenditure
� Relatively neglected public investment
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Overall GovernmentExpenditure
Government InfrastructureInvestment
25%
1%
42%
4%
Year 2000 Year 2016
Government Current and Infrastructure Expenditure: The Argentine Case
In %
of
GD
P
Should governments repair market failures, or should the market repair government failures?
+3 p.p.
+17 p.p.
Conclusions
Lessons from the data
� General government budgets may remain the main source of infrastructure funding
� In both developing and developed economies, market failures prevent the private
sector to assume a leading role
� Private sector should certainly be encouraged, most of all through a healthy
contracting environment, but without getting the public sector off the hook
� DFIs have in general limited resources to substitute governments as the chief
financier of infrastructure spending
Who Can and Should Finance Infrastructure?
Lessons from International Data
September 19, 2017
Ricardo Bebczuk
Chief Economist – BICE, Argentina
Bank Negara Malaysia – World Bank GroupGlobal Symposium on Development Financial Institutions
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