white avoidance or attraction? why white british tend to leave diverse wards eric kaufmann and...
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White Avoidance or Attraction?
Why white British tend to leave diverse wards
Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,Birkbeck College
e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; g.harris1@bbk.ac.ukhttp://www.sneps.net/research-interests/whiteworkingclass
twitter: @epkaufm
White Flight?
Save our Census!• The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the
Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data.
• Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.
• The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.
Quintiles (ONS LS 2011)
Diverse fifth of Wards
Homogeneous four-fifths of Wards
2011 40.7% Minority 4.9% Minority
2001 27.8% Minority 2.4% Minority
1991 19.8% Minority 1.5% Minority
White British net outflow
Minority net outflow
Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, 1991-2011 (BHPS/UKHLS)
% Ethnic Minority in Ward a year ago
% C
hang
e in
Eth
nic
Min
oriti
es in
War
d
0.1
.2.3
.4P
r(Q
c01_
11=
=-1
)
1 2 3 4 5white01quint
whbrit11=0 whbrit11=1
Predictive Margins with 95% CIs
Predicted Probability of Move Away from Diversity, Inter-ward Movers, 2001-11 (ONS LS)
Most Diverse Ward
Whitest ward
Prob
abili
ty o
f mov
e to
less
div
erse
war
d qu
intil
e
White Flight?:Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013
Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrs
Moved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrs Sample
Not White British 53% 47% 47
White British 62% 38% 239
Total 60% 40% 286
Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey)
To WhiterTo Diverse Sample
very comfortable 61% 39% 83
fairly comfortable 67% 33% 33neither comfortable n 57% 43% 46
fairly uncomfortable 64% 36% 11
very uncomfortable 76% 24% 25don't know 58% 42% 24Total 63% 37% 222
Cultural Amenities not Ethnocentrism
• “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978
• White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move
• Cultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition
Future Research
• Look at individual ethnic minorities to screen out friends & family effect
• Each ethnic group is relatively attracted to own area, i.e. Caribbeans to Caribbean areas, but white/minority appears to remain important
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