where would we be without counterfactuals?

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

An inaugural lecture by Huw Price, Bertrand Russell

Professor of Philosophy

Bertrand Russell’s celebrated essay “On the

Notion of Cause” was first delivered to the

Aristotelian Society on 4 November 1912, as

Russell’s Presidential Address. The piece is best

known for a passage in which its author deftly

positions himself between the traditional

metaphysics of causation and the British crown,

firing broadsides in both directions: “The law of

Causality”, Russell declares, “Like much that passes muster in philosophy, is a relic

of a bygone age, surviving, like the monarchy, only because it is erroneously

supposed to do no harm.” To mark the essay’s centenary, the present lecture will

offer a contemporary view of the issues Russell here puts on the table, and of the

health or otherwise, at the end of its first century, of his notorious conclusion.

5:30pm, Thursday 1 November 2012

LB3, Lecture Block, Sidgwick Avenue

Where would we

be without

counterfactuals?

Russell image by permission of the Masters and Fellows of Trinity College.

Cambridge

Bertrand Russell

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

.

...... Where would we be without counterfactuals?

Huw Price

Bertrand Russell Professor of PhilosophyUniversity of Cambridge

November

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

G. E. M. Anscombe, ‘Causality and Determination’ ( )

“Russell wrote of the notion of cause, or at anyrate of the ‘law of causation’ (and he seemed tofeel the same way about ‘cause’ itself ), that, likethe British monarchy, it had been allowed tosurvive because it had been erroneously thought todo no harm. In a destructive essay of greatbrilliance he … argued that upon examination theconcepts of determination and of invariablesuccession of like objects upon like turn out to beempty: they do not differentiate between anyconceivable course of things and any other.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

e Manhattan factor

Q: “Why is Manhattan so expensive?”

A: “You’re paying for all those counterfactuals.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

e Manhattan factor

Q: “Why is Manhattan so expensive?”

A: “You’re paying for all those counterfactuals.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

e Manhattan factor

Q: “Why is Manhattan so expensive?”

A: “You’re paying for all those counterfactuals.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

e Manhattan factor

Q: “Why is Manhattan so expensive?”

A: “You’re paying for all those counterfactuals.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.”

7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.”

3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.”

7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.”

3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.”

7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.”

3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.”

7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.”

3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.”

7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.” 3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.” 7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.” 3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.” 7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.” 3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.” 7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.” 3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.” 7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.” 3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Nancy Cartwright ( )

Russell’s two conclusions:

... “Laws of association are all the laws there are.” 7

... “Causal principles cannot be derived from the causallysymmetric laws of association.” 3

“[e] objectivity of strategies requires the objectivity of causal laws. …Causal laws cannot be done away with, for they are needed to ground thedistinction between effective strategies and ineffective ones. … [T]hedifference between the two depends on the causal laws of our universe, andon nothing weaker.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Field on Cartwright

“is makes a compelling case against Russell’s view thatwe should do without causal notions. But Cartwrightherself draws a much stronger conclusion, a kind of causalhyper-realism …. She holds that the causal fact that a forceon an object makes the object go faster is not reducible toNewton’s [second] law, nor to other noncausal facts either,such as the equations of energy ow …. (Such equationsare just further parts of fundamental physics, which sheregards as “laws of association” rather than as causal.)Rather, the claim that a force on an object makes the objectgo faster states a further truth about the world that physicsleaves out. Evidently there is some sort of causal uid thatis not taken account of in the equations of physics; justhow it is that we are supposed to have access to itsproperties I am not sure.” (Field )

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Field on Cartwright

“is makes a compelling case against Russell’s view thatwe should do without causal notions. But Cartwrightherself draws a much stronger conclusion, a kind of causalhyper-realism …. She holds that the causal fact that a forceon an object makes the object go faster is not reducible toNewton’s [second] law, nor to other noncausal facts either,such as the equations of energy ow …. (Such equationsare just further parts of fundamental physics, which sheregards as “laws of association” rather than as causal.)Rather, the claim that a force on an object makes the objectgo faster states a further truth about the world that physicsleaves out. Evidently there is some sort of causal uid thatis not taken account of in the equations of physics; justhow it is that we are supposed to have access to itsproperties I am not sure.” (Field )

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Field on Cartwright

“is makes a compelling case against Russell’s view thatwe should do without causal notions. But Cartwrightherself draws a much stronger conclusion, a kind of causalhyper-realism …. She holds that the causal fact that a forceon an object makes the object go faster is not reducible toNewton’s [second] law, nor to other noncausal facts either,such as the equations of energy ow …. (Such equationsare just further parts of fundamental physics, which sheregards as “laws of association” rather than as causal.)Rather, the claim that a force on an object makes the objectgo faster states a further truth about the world that physicsleaves out. Evidently there is some sort of causal uid thatis not taken account of in the equations of physics; justhow it is that we are supposed to have access to itsproperties I am not sure.” (Field )

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Field on Cartwright

“is makes a compelling case against Russell’s view thatwe should do without causal notions. But Cartwrightherself draws a much stronger conclusion, a kind of causalhyper-realism …. She holds that the causal fact that a forceon an object makes the object go faster is not reducible toNewton’s [second] law, nor to other noncausal facts either,such as the equations of energy ow …. (Such equationsare just further parts of fundamental physics, which sheregards as “laws of association” rather than as causal.)Rather, the claim that a force on an object makes the objectgo faster states a further truth about the world that physicsleaves out. Evidently there is some sort of causal uid thatis not taken account of in the equations of physics; justhow it is that we are supposed to have access to itsproperties I am not sure.” (Field )

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

“e central problem in the metaphysics of causation”

“[D]espite the implausibility of the hyper-realist picture,we have a problem to solve: the problem of reconcilingCartwright’s points about the need of causation in a theoryof effective strategy with Russell’s points about the limitedrole of causation in physics. is is probably the centralproblem in the metaphysics of causation.” (Field )

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

“We all regard the past as determined simply by the fact that it has happened;but for the accident that memory works backward and not forward, weshould regard the future as equally determined by the fact that it willhappen.”

“‘But,’ we are told, ‘you cannot alter the past, while you can to some extentalter the future.’”

“[I]f you happen to know the future—e.g., in the case of a forthcomingeclipse—it is just as useless to wish it different as to wish the past different.”

“‘But,’ it will be rejoined, ‘our wishes can cause the future, sometimes, to bedifferent from what it would be if they did not exist, and they can have nosuch effect upon the past.’”

“is, again, is a mere tautology. An effect being de ned as somethingsubsequent to its cause, obviously we can have no effect upon the past.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

“We all regard the past as determined simply by the fact that it has happened;but for the accident that memory works backward and not forward, weshould regard the future as equally determined by the fact that it willhappen.”

“‘But,’ we are told, ‘you cannot alter the past, while you can to some extentalter the future.’”

“[I]f you happen to know the future—e.g., in the case of a forthcomingeclipse—it is just as useless to wish it different as to wish the past different.”

“‘But,’ it will be rejoined, ‘our wishes can cause the future, sometimes, to bedifferent from what it would be if they did not exist, and they can have nosuch effect upon the past.’”

“is, again, is a mere tautology. An effect being de ned as somethingsubsequent to its cause, obviously we can have no effect upon the past.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

“We all regard the past as determined simply by the fact that it has happened;but for the accident that memory works backward and not forward, weshould regard the future as equally determined by the fact that it willhappen.”

“‘But,’ we are told, ‘you cannot alter the past, while you can to some extentalter the future.’”

“[I]f you happen to know the future—e.g., in the case of a forthcomingeclipse—it is just as useless to wish it different as to wish the past different.”

“‘But,’ it will be rejoined, ‘our wishes can cause the future, sometimes, to bedifferent from what it would be if they did not exist, and they can have nosuch effect upon the past.’”

“is, again, is a mere tautology. An effect being de ned as somethingsubsequent to its cause, obviously we can have no effect upon the past.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

“We all regard the past as determined simply by the fact that it has happened;but for the accident that memory works backward and not forward, weshould regard the future as equally determined by the fact that it willhappen.”

“‘But,’ we are told, ‘you cannot alter the past, while you can to some extentalter the future.’”

“[I]f you happen to know the future—e.g., in the case of a forthcomingeclipse—it is just as useless to wish it different as to wish the past different.”

“‘But,’ it will be rejoined, ‘our wishes can cause the future, sometimes, to bedifferent from what it would be if they did not exist, and they can have nosuch effect upon the past.’”

“is, again, is a mere tautology. An effect being de ned as somethingsubsequent to its cause, obviously we can have no effect upon the past.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

“We all regard the past as determined simply by the fact that it has happened;but for the accident that memory works backward and not forward, weshould regard the future as equally determined by the fact that it willhappen.”

“‘But,’ we are told, ‘you cannot alter the past, while you can to some extentalter the future.’”

“[I]f you happen to know the future—e.g., in the case of a forthcomingeclipse—it is just as useless to wish it different as to wish the past different.”

“‘But,’ it will be rejoined, ‘our wishes can cause the future, sometimes, to bedifferent from what it would be if they did not exist, and they can have nosuch effect upon the past.’”

“is, again, is a mere tautology. An effect being de ned as somethingsubsequent to its cause, obviously we can have no effect upon the past.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell’s conclusion

“e facts seem to be merely ( ) that wishing generallydepends upon ignorance, and is therefore commoner inregard to the future than in regard to the past, ( ) thatwhere a wish concerns the future, it and its realization veryoften form a ‘practically independent system,’ i.e., manywishes regarding the future are realized. But there seemsno doubt that the main difference in our feelings arisesfrom the fact that the past but not the future can beknown by memory.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Summary – Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

... Russell tries to explain the time-asymmetry of causation as a product of adifference in us, rather than a difference in reality. (I think he’s right.)

... e difference he picks concerns memory, but it’s doubtful whether thatcan do the trick – it doesn’t draw a clean cut between past and future.

... He already has on the table the idea that the “realization of our wishes” isimportant in explaining the illusion of asymmetry – though, hampered bythe thought that it is all about memory, he doesn’t get very far.

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Summary – Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

... Russell tries to explain the time-asymmetry of causation as a product of adifference in us, rather than a difference in reality. (I think he’s right.)

... e difference he picks concerns memory, but it’s doubtful whether thatcan do the trick – it doesn’t draw a clean cut between past and future.

... He already has on the table the idea that the “realization of our wishes” isimportant in explaining the illusion of asymmetry – though, hampered bythe thought that it is all about memory, he doesn’t get very far.

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Summary – Russell on the time-asymmetry of causation

... Russell tries to explain the time-asymmetry of causation as a product of adifference in us, rather than a difference in reality. (I think he’s right.)

... e difference he picks concerns memory, but it’s doubtful whether thatcan do the trick – it doesn’t draw a clean cut between past and future.

... He already has on the table the idea that the “realization of our wishes” isimportant in explaining the illusion of asymmetry – though, hampered bythe thought that it is all about memory, he doesn’t get very far.

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

F. P. Ramsey, ‘General propositions and causality’ ( )

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

F. P. Ramsey, ‘General propositions and causality’ ( )

“It is, it seems, a fundamental fact that the future is due tothe present … but the past is not. What does this mean? Itis not clear and, if we try to make it clear, it turns intononsense or a definition ….

What then do we believe about the future that wedo not believe about the past; the past, we think, issettled; if this means more than that it is past, it mightmean that it is settled for us, … that any present event isirrelevant to the probability for us of any past event. Butthat is plainly untrue. What is true is this, that anypossible present action volition of ours is (for us)irrelevant to any past event. To another (or to ourselves inthe future) it can serve as a sign of the past, but to us nowwhat we do affects only the probability of the future.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

F. P. Ramsey, ‘General propositions and causality’ ( )

“It is, it seems, a fundamental fact that the future is due tothe present … but the past is not. What does this mean? Itis not clear and, if we try to make it clear, it turns intononsense or a definition ….

What then do we believe about the future that wedo not believe about the past; the past, we think, issettled; if this means more than that it is past, it mightmean that it is settled for us, … that any present event isirrelevant to the probability for us of any past event. Butthat is plainly untrue. What is true is this, that anypossible present action volition of ours is (for us)irrelevant to any past event. To another (or to ourselves inthe future) it can serve as a sign of the past, but to us nowwhat we do affects only the probability of the future.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

F. P. Ramsey, ‘General propositions and causality’ ( )

“It is, it seems, a fundamental fact that the future is due tothe present … but the past is not. What does this mean? Itis not clear and, if we try to make it clear, it turns intononsense or a definition ….

What then do we believe about the future that wedo not believe about the past; the past, we think, issettled; if this means more than that it is past, it mightmean that it is settled for us, … that any present event isirrelevant to the probability for us of any past event. Butthat is plainly untrue. What is true is this, that anypossible present action volition of ours is (for us)irrelevant to any past event. To another (or to ourselves inthe future) it can serve as a sign of the past, but to us nowwhat we do affects only the probability of the future.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

F. P. Ramsey, ‘General propositions and causality’ ( )

“is seems to me the root of the matter; that I cannot affect the past, is away of saying something quite clearly true about my degrees of belief. Againfrom the situation when we are deliberating seems to me to arise thegeneral difference of cause and effect. We are then engaged not ondisinterested knowledge or classification (to which this difference is utterlyforeign), but on tracing the different consequences of our possible actions,which we naturally do in sequence forward in time, proceeding from causeto effect not from effect to cause. We can produce A or A′ which produces Bor B′ which etc. …; the probabilities of A, B are mutually dependent, but wecome to A first from our present volition. … In a sense my present action isan ultimate and the only ultimate contingency.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Key points

Agency is the key to understanding causation.Probability looks different from an agent’s point of view.e time-asymmetry of causation.e past is off-limits … or is it?

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Key points

Agency is the key to understanding causation.Probability looks different from an agent’s point of view.e time-asymmetry of causation.e past is off-limits … or is it?

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Key points

Agency is the key to understanding causation.Probability looks different from an agent’s point of view.e time-asymmetry of causation.e past is off-limits … or is it?

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Key points

Agency is the key to understanding causation.Probability looks different from an agent’s point of view.e time-asymmetry of causation.e past is off-limits … or is it?

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Key points

Agency is the key to understanding causation.Probability looks different from an agent’s point of view.e time-asymmetry of causation.e past is off-limits … or is it?

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Key points

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Summary – what we get from Ramsey

Answers to the two big puzzles:

Field’s issue. If Ramsey’s idea works, it reconcilesCartwright with Russell, without hyper-realism.e direction of causation. e difference betweencause and effect turns on what we can manipulate todo what, and the temporal orientation of this “causalarrow” is explained in terms of a contingentasymmetry in us – the fact that we deliberate“past-to-future.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Summary – what we get from Ramsey

Answers to the two big puzzles:

Field’s issue. If Ramsey’s idea works, it reconcilesCartwright with Russell, without hyper-realism.e direction of causation. e difference betweencause and effect turns on what we can manipulate todo what, and the temporal orientation of this “causalarrow” is explained in terms of a contingentasymmetry in us – the fact that we deliberate“past-to-future.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Summary – what we get from Ramsey

Answers to the two big puzzles:

Field’s issue. If Ramsey’s idea works, it reconcilesCartwright with Russell, without hyper-realism.e direction of causation. e difference betweencause and effect turns on what we can manipulate todo what, and the temporal orientation of this “causalarrow” is explained in terms of a contingentasymmetry in us – the fact that we deliberate“past-to-future.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Summary – what we get from Ramsey

Answers to the two big puzzles:

Field’s issue. If Ramsey’s idea works, it reconcilesCartwright with Russell, without hyper-realism.e direction of causation. e difference betweencause and effect turns on what we can manipulate todo what, and the temporal orientation of this “causalarrow” is explained in terms of a contingentasymmetry in us – the fact that we deliberate“past-to-future.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

A basis for counterfactuals?

“When we deliberate about a possible action, we ask ourselves what willhappen if we do this or that. If we give a de nite answer of the form ‘If I dop, q will result,’ this can properly be regarded as a material implication ordisjunction ‘Either not-p or q.’ But it differs, of course, from any ordinarydisjunction in that one of its members is not something of which we aretrying to discover the truth, but something it is within our power to maketrue or false.¹ … [O]ur conduct is largely determined by these …hypothetical belief[s].”

¹“It is possible to take one’s future voluntary action as an intellectual problem: ‘Shall I be able tokeep it up?’ But only by dissociating one’s future self.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

A basis for counterfactuals?

“When we deliberate about a possible action, we ask ourselves what willhappen if we do this or that. If we give a de nite answer of the form ‘If I dop, q will result,’ this can properly be regarded as a material implication ordisjunction ‘Either not-p or q.’ But it differs, of course, from any ordinarydisjunction in that one of its members is not something of which we aretrying to discover the truth, but something it is within our power to maketrue or false.¹ … [O]ur conduct is largely determined by these …hypothetical belief[s].”

¹“It is possible to take one’s future voluntary action as an intellectual problem: ‘Shall I be able tokeep it up?’ But only by dissociating one’s future self.”

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell: anarchist or republican?

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Russell on the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

e verdict on the streets

© David Lee

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /

..........

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

.....

.....

......

.....

......

.....

.....

.

‘On the Notion of Cause’ Challenges Russell on time-asymmetry Ramsey’s special agent Counterfactuals? Causal republicanism Russell & the monarchy

e verdict on the streets

© David Lee

Huw Price Where would we be without counterfactuals? /