when a movement becomes a party: computational assessment of new forms of political organization in...
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When a Movement Becomes a PartyComputational Assessment of New Forms of
Political Organization in Social Media
Pablo Aragón*†, Yana Volkovich†, David Laniado†, Andreas Kaltenbrunner†
* Universitat Pompeu Fabra † Eurecat
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Motivation: Movement organizations
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Networked social movement: Networks in multiple forms (multimodal, on/offline, across platforms) without a central node, and with a decentralized structure.
(Castells, 2013)
Change from logic of collective action to a logic of connective action.
(Bennett et al, 2013)
Motivation: Movement networks
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
“Decentralized structure, based on coalitions of smaller organizations”.
(González-Bailón et al, 2011)
“Decentralized organization without stable leaders or representatives”.
(Aragón et al, 2013)
RT network of the 15M movementMay 15-22, 2011 (Aragón et al, 2015)
Motivation: Party organizations
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Iron Law of Oligarchy: Political parties, like any complex organization, self-generate an elite (“Who says organization, says oligarchy”).
(Michels, 1915)
Elite theory: Small minorities (elites) hold the most power in political processes.
(Pareto et al, 1935; Mosca, 1939; Mills 1999)
Motivation: Party networks
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
The Twitter party networks in the 2011 Spanish election presented:
Isolated clusters for each party.
Every party cluster was strongly centralized around candidate and/or party accounts.
(Aragón et al, 2013)
RT network of political parties in the 2011 Spanish election (Aragón et al, 2013)
Motivation: The 2015 Spanish local elections
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Grassroots parties emerged from the 15M movement:
Barcelona en Comú
Ahora Madrid
Zaragoza en Común
Marea Atlántica
Compostela Aberta
Por Cádiz Sí se puede
Guanyem Badalona en Comú
Research Question
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Assuming that:
Barcelona en Comú emerged from the 15M movement
the 15M movement followed a decentralized structure
Has Barcelona en Comú…
preserved a decentralized structure?
adopted a conventional centralized organization?
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Dataset
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
“Political parties share some interesting patterns of behavior, but also exhibit some unique and interesting idiosyncrasies” (e.g. tagging practice of politicians)
(Lietz et al, 2015)
Sampling criteria based on candidate and party accounts:
373 818 RTs
RT network
- 6 492 nodes- 16 775 edges
Computational assessment
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Community detection Identify the organization of nodes in clusters: political party networks.
Cluster characterizationCharacterize the topology of the intra-network of each cluster.
First result with the Louvain Method (Blondel et al, 2008):
Eight major clusters (seven parties)
Every cluster contains some media accounts: media build weak ties
Analysis of the ego-network of relevant media accounts:
Public TV account retweeted by users from every cluster
Private media mostly retweeted by users from like-minded parties
Community detection
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Every cluster contains some media accounts
Each execution produces different results:Some media do not always belong to the same cluster
Community detection
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Every cluster contains some media accounts
Each execution produces different results:Some media do not always belong to the same cluster
Community detection
12
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Every cluster contains some media accounts
Each execution produces different results:Some media do not always belong to the same cluster
Community detection
13
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Every cluster contains some media accounts
Each execution produces different results:Some media do not always belong to the same cluster
Community detection
14
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Every cluster contains some media accounts
Each execution produces different results:Some media do not always belong to the same cluster
We want the real intra-network structure of parties
Community detection
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Every cluster contains some media accounts
Each execution produces different results:Some media do not always belong to the same cluster
We want the real intra-network structure of parties
Louvain Method with Confidence Interval
Run multiple executions (N=100)
Validate the stability of major clusters
Just consider nodes that appear in the same cluster more than times (1-ε=0.95)
Community detection
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Community detection
17
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Result with the Louvain Method with Confidence Interval
Constant presence of eight major clusters (seven parties) along the 100 executions
Community detection
18
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Result with the Louvain Method with Confidence Interval
Constant presence of eight major clusters (seven parties) along the 100 executions
Most media accounts are now excluded from major clusters
Community detection
19
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Result with the Louvain Method with Confidence Interval
Constant presence of eight major clusters (seven parties) along the 100 executions
Most media accounts are now excluded from major clusters
Two clusters for Barcelona en Comú …
Community detection
20
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Result with the Louvain Method with Confidence Interval
Constant presence of eight major clusters (seven parties) along the 100 executions
Most media accounts are now excluded from major clusters
Two clusters for Barcelona en Comú …
Movement-party structure
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Party
Movement
The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Visualization of the two clusters of Barcelona en Comú
Cluster characterization
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Inspired by the social dimensions of García et al. (2015):
Hierarchical structure
In-degree centralization Gini coefficient of the in-degree distribution
Small world phenomenon (f.k.a. information efficiency)
Avg. path length + Clustering coefficient
Coreness (f.k.a. social resilience)
Maximal k-core Distribution of k-indices
Cluster characterization: Hierachical structure
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Gini coefficient of the in-degree distribution
Cluster characterization: Small world
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Cluster characterization: Coreness
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Conclusions
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
For Barcelona en Comú, two paradigms co-exist:
A centralized and low resilient party cluster
A decentralized and resilient movement cluster
Polarized scenario likes previous studies of election campaigns on Twitter
Data preparation process accentuated the polarization effect
Media accounts build weak ties between clusters
Public media became more plural than private media
Open questions and future work
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
How did the dual network structure Barcelona en Comú was built over time?
As the result of the confluence of minor parties and the 15M activists?
As a party interface over a citizen decentralized system?
Is this dual paradigm observable in other grassroots parties?
Ahora Madrid? Zaragoza en Comú? … Syriza?
Is this dual paradigm observable in other OSNs?
Facebook? Youtube? Instagram?
References
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Castells, M. (2013). Networks of outrage and hope: Social movements in the Internet age. J. Wiley & Son
Bennett, W. L. and Segerberg, A. (2012). The logic of connective action: Digital media and the personalization of contentious politics. Information, Communication & Society, 15(5):739–768.
González-Bailón, S., Borge-Holthoefer, J., Rivero, A., and Moreno, Y. (2011). The dynamics of protest recruitment through an online network. Scientific reports, 1.
Aragón P., Congosto M., & Laniado D. (2013). Evolución del sistema- red 15m a través de topología de redes. In Toret, J., Calleja, A., Marín, O., Aragón, P., Aguilera, M., Barandarian, X., Lumbreras, A. & Monterde, A. (2015). Tecnopolítica y 15M. La potencia de las multitudes conectadas, Barcelona: Editorial UOC. ISBN: 978-84-9064-458-4.
Aragón, P., Kappler, K. E., Kaltenbrunner, A., Laniado, D., and Volkovich, Y. (2013). Communication dynamics in twitter during political campaigns: The case of the 2011 spanishnational election. Policy & Internet, 5(2):183–206.
References
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
Michels, R. (1915). Political parties: A sociological study of the oligarchical tendencies of modern democracy. Hearst’s International Library Company.
Pareto, V., Livingston, A., Bongiorno, A., Rogers, J. H., et al. (1935). Mind and society
Mosca, G. (1939). The ruling class: elementi di scienza politica.
Mills, C. W. (1999). The power elite. Oxford U. Press.
Lietz, H., Wagner, C., Bleier, A., & Strohmaier, M. (2014). When Politicians Talk: Assessing Online Conversational Practices of Political Parties on Twitter.
Blondel, V. D., Guillaume, J.-L., Lambiotte, R., and Lefebvre, E. (2008). Fast unfolding of communities in large networks. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment, 2008(10):P10008.
Garcia, D., Abisheva, A., Schweighofer, S., Serdult, U., and Schweitzer, F. (2015). Ideological and temporal components of network polarization in online political participatory media. Policy & Internet, 7(1):46–79.
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The 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM-16)
Cologne, Germany, May 17-20
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