weather trends - namic€¦ · published mike’s first book, “warnings: the true story of how...

Weather Trends Friday, March 1, 2013, 8:30 a.m.

Mike Smith Senior Vice President, Chief Innovation Executive Accuweather Enterprise Solutions Wichita, Kan. Mike Smith is one of America’s most innovative and honored meteorologists. Mike knew he would be a meteorologist at age 5, when a major tornado moved through his neighborhood. After receiving his meteorology degree from the University of Oklahoma, he worked as a television meteorologist in St. Louis, Oklahoma City, and Wichita, Kan. He is the first person ever to do a live telecast of a tornado. In 1981, Mike founded WeatherData, Inc. in Wichita. Under his leadership, the company pioneered pinpoint severe-weather warning services and technologies serving transportation, manufacturing, government, and more. Mike has received 19 patents in weather science, emergency management, and search and rescue. A fellow of the American Meteorological Society, he has received the association’s award for Outstanding Contribution to the Advance of Applied Meteorology and its award for Outstanding Service to Meteorology by a Corporation twice. In 2006, WeatherData was acquired by AccuWeather, Inc., and has now become AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, Inc., the leading company in the field of weather risk mitigation. Mike serves AccuWeather and AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions as senior vice president and chief innovation executive. In addition to his work at AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions, Mike is a frequent speaker and author on popular and technical weather-related topics. He has appeared on the Discovery Channel, the History Channel, Fox News, and all of the major networks. Recently, Greenleaf Book Group published Mike’s first book, “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.” Mike lives in Wichita and is married with three grown children. Session Description: The last few years have seen some record-breaking weather events and insured losses that resulted from them. In fact, the last three years have been very active in terms of record-breaking snowfall on the East Coast and devastating tornadoes in the South. Have these disasters been a break from “normal” weather or is this a change in the overall pattern? Should we expect these conditions to continue or maybe even get worse? Join us for an interactive and enlightening session with meteorologist Mike Smith of Accuweather, a leading weather expert.

Top Three Session Ideas Tools or tips you learned from this session and can apply back at the office.

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Weather Trends Session Outline

Overview Is Climate Change a Factor?

• Earth’s Temperatures Have Stabilized • No Upward Trend in Violent Tornadoes • No Upward Trend in Hurricanes Worldwide • 7.5 Years – A Record – Without a Cat. 3 or Stronger Hurricane in the U.S.

Because of Changes in Business Process…Extreme Weather Causes Extreme Business Losses

• Fifty Years Ago vs. Today Why Does Every Business Need a Plan?

• Hurricane Sandy Example • Joplin Tornado Example • Weather Effects on Economy

Weather Risk Mitigation Program

• Best Practices o Cell and Landline Service Outage o Power Outage

• Write “Premium” Contact With Distant Provider • Pay Premium Transportation Rate With Guaranteed Delivery With a Regional or

National Company • Questions to Ask • Allow Your Employees to Use Your Building As a Shelter • The Plan • Inform Your Employees About Your Weather Procedures and Weather Information

Source • Use One Source for Storm Warnings • Believe the Warning, Not Your Eyes

AccuWeather’s Warnings What Can the Insurance Industry Do to Mitigate Losses? Questions & Answers

Michael R. Smith, C.C.M.Senior Vice President/Chief Innovation Executive

The Year of the Ill Wind

© Copyright 2013 AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions.

very part of the U.S. Has Extreme Weather

Heat / cold

Tornado

Hurricane

Hail

E

Lightning

Flood / Flash Flood

Tsunami

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nusual Weather Happens:U

1938 New England Hurricane (2nd most costly)

California Hurricane

EXTREME WEATHER WILL AFFECT YOU –IT’S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME

Springfield, Mass. Tornado 2011

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s Climate Change a Factor?IEarth's Temperatures Have Stabilized

s Climate Change a Factor?INo Upward Trend in Violent Tornadoes

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s Climate Change a Factor?INo Upward Trend in Hurricanes Worldwide

s Climate Change a Factor?I7.5 Years – A Record – Without a Cat. 3 or Stronger Hurricane in U.S.

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Because of Changes in Business Processes

Extreme Weather Causes Extreme Business Losses

ifty Years Ago:F

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oday:T

hy Does Every Business Need a Plan?WIn Hurricane Sandy, a well-known company had a $73 million, fully preventable loss.

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hy Does Every Business Need a Plan?W

The loss was FULLY PREVENTABLE.

“Do It Yourself Weather” Doesn’t Work

hy Does Every Business Need a Plan?W

CBS/AP / May 27, 2011, 3:55 PM

Joplin tornado hit 4,000jobs, group says

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hy Does Your Business Need a Plan?W

ow To Construct an Effective Weather Risk Mitigation Program?

H

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eather Risk Mitigation Program

1. Plan

2. Threat communication

3. Shelter People and Protect Assets

4. Recovery

WBest Practices

eather Risk Mitigation ProgramWBest Practices

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eather Risk Mitigation ProgramWBest Practices – Cell and Landline Service Outage

At least one satellite phone with outdoor antenna and extra batteries kept fully charged at all times.

Maintain a minimum monthly plan.

Make an occasional call, keep in practice.

Program in direct (7 or 10-digit) emergency numbers (police, fire, etc.). 9-1-1 won’t work.

eather Risk Mitigation ProgramWPower out for days. How will you refuel generators?

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eather Risk Mitigation ProgramW

Write “premium” contact with distant provider. For example, if in hurricane area at least 200 mi. inland.

Outside of hurricane area, at least 100 miles away.

Pay premium transportation rate with guaranteed delivery with a regional or national company.

eather Risk Mitigation ProgramW

How long does sheltering take?

How long does orderly equipment shutdown take?

How is the sheltering decision announced?

How are non-safety weather decisions announced?

Who makes the decision? (Who, not a committee)

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Best Practices –Allow Your Employees to Use Your Building As a Shelter

1. Have building checked by architect or engineer

2. Purchase minimal supplies for shelter (bottled water, diapers, etc.)

3. Mark its location(s)

eather Risk Mitigation ProgramW

Every supervisor should carry it on their smartphone, via the “Procedures” Feature of SkyGuard® Mobile

The Plan

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est PracticesBInform your employees about your weatherprocedures and weather information source.

se One Source forStorm Warnings

U

Scientific Research Demonstrates:Fewer Sources are Better!

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eather Risk Mitigation ProgramWBelieve the warning, not your eyes.

eather Risk Mitigation ProgramWBelieve the warning, not your eyes.

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eather Risk Mitigation ProgramWBelieve the warning, not your eyes.

hat Makes AccuWeather’s Warnings The Best Choice for Businesses?

Warnings tailored to your business unique criteria

Warnings issued specifically for your location

Exclusive “preparation time” feature

No unnecessary false alarms

W

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hy You Should Work WithW

The National Weather Service never issued hurricane warnings for New York, New Jersey, or surrounding region.

Consistent messaging and terminology. No politics.

Here is NYC Mayor Bloomberg’s statement:

“Although we’re expecting a large surge of water, it is not expected to be a tropical storm or hurricane-type surge. With this storm, we’ll likely see a slow pileup of water rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect with a hurricane, and which we saw with Irene 14 months ago.

“So it will be less dangerous - but make no mistake about it, there will be a lot of water and low-lying areas will experience flooding. The City’s Departments of transportation and Environmental Protection will be deployed throughout the city to address flooding conditions.

hy You Should Work WithW

The National Weather Service never issued hurricane warnings for New York, New Jersey, or surrounding region.

Consistent messaging and terminology. No politics.

Closer to home, in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie issued an executive order classifying the storm as a "post-tropical cyclone" rather than a hurricane, pre-empting the scientific evaluation of the National Weather Service, which has yet to make its final determination. Whether Sandy was a hurricane or not makes a big difference in insurance payouts to individual homeowners. If a hurricane, the payouts would be much smaller. In a letter to the Weather Service, New York Sen. Charles Schumer reminded the agency that its scientific judgments could cost his constituents a lot of money. Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr., Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2013.

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hy You Should Work WithWConsistent messaging and terminology. No politics.

hy You Should Work WithW

Messaging tailored to your unique requirements.

Warnings tailored to your unique requirements.

Expertise and Experience:

INSERT TRAINIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

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hy You Should Work WithW

Warnings tailored to your unique requirements.

Expertise and Experience:

sing Extreme Weather to Enhance SalesUMatching Inventory to Demand

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sing Extreme Weather to Enhance SalesUWeather-Driven Advertising

inter Storm Forecasts and WarningsW

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onitoring Your Supply ChainM

ew fromN

SkyGuard® Mobile

Close-In Single Site Radar

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ew fromN

SkyGuard® Mobile

Wide-Area Radar Mosaic

ew fromN

SkyGuard® Mobile

Thunderstorms, Lightning, andWarnings

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hat Can the Insurance Industry Do toMitigate Losses?

Fund “Gap Filler” Radars

Incentivize Safe Rooms and Shelters

Partner to Give Your Policyholders Apps and Tools

Promote Consistent Siren Policies

W

Thank You for Attending Today

www.enterprisesolutions.accuweather.com

msmith@accuweather.com

(316) 266-8000

My blog: mikesmithenterprises.com/blog

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