wcrp update and feedback ceos-cgms wg climate eumetsat 5-7 march 2014 m. rixen

WCRP update and feedbackWCRP update and feedback

CEOS-CGMS WG ClimateCEOS-CGMS WG ClimateEUMETSAT EUMETSAT

5-7 March 20145-7 March 2014

M. RixenM. Rixen

Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports

climate-related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve

(1) climate predictions and

(2) understanding of human influence on climate

“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society”

(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Proposed Research Strategy:

At the simplest level, Future Earth must answer fundamental questions about how and why the global environment is changing, what are likely future changes, what the implications are for humans and other species, and what choices can be made to reduce harmful risks and vulnerabilities, enhance resilience, and create prosperous futures.

ICSU’s Future Earth conceptual framework

Call for proposal: Fast Track Initiatives and Cluster ActivitiesDeadline 4 April 2014 – need some GEC core project umbrella

WCRP 4th International Reanalysis Conference

7-11 May 2012

Silver Spring, Maryland USA

270+ participants

42 countries

Agency Priorities: An Open Panel Discussion with Conference Participants

• Quantitative Uncertainty Estimation: families of reanalyses

• Qualitative Uncertainty Estimation: reanalysis.org, climatedataguide.ucar.edu

• Earth System Coupling: interdisciplinarity, synergies between communities

• Reanalyses, Observations and Stewardship: seamlessness of data discovery and access, ESGF

Next: workshop on input observations for reanalyses, ECMWF (FP7 ERA-CLIM2 deliverable)

CMIP5Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

• 2+ Petabyte on Earth System Grid Federation

• 59 models, 24 groups• Many studies contributing to the IPCC

AR5 report• Already 300+ papers

• Other modeling efforts within WCRP (Seasonal-to-interannual, Decadal, Regional-CORDEX) could likely follow similar schemes in the future

Green coupled carbon-

cycle climate models

Red matches CMIP3

experimental suite

A rich set of modeling experiments, drawn from several predecessor MIPs, focuses on model evaluation, projections, and understanding

Key to the success of CMIP

• Sustained support for critical infrastructure

– Community-developed metadata conventions

• “Climate-Forecast” metadata convention (CF)

http://cf-pcmdi.llnl.gov/

– Software to ensure data complies to conventions

• Climate Model Output Writer (CMOR)

http://www2-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmor

– Advancing state-of-the-art data delivery methods

• Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)

http:esgf.org/

• A highly collaborative spirit within WCRP

Federation connectedness means the user does not have to know where the data resides

and critical data is replicated

Earth System Grid FederationJSC34-WMAC2: Earth System Grid Federation

to become WCRP main mechanism for exchanging data (climate simulations+observations+reanalyses) in the next decade, including core projects

WGCM: a new Infrastructure Panel to maintain standards and metadata across MIPS

CORDEX Data being published on ESGF

© Crown copyright Met Officehttp://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/

Most leading seasonal forecasts models now included in CHFP

13 systems

‘CMIP for seasonal’

Migration to ESGF underway (FP7 EU SPECS projects)

Intercomparison Models-ObservationsIntercomparison Models-ObservationsCoordinated with CMIP are parallel efforts to collect and

make available observationally-based products

Obs4MIPs

A pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in climate model evaluation. Aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM, WGNE, WDAC. NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA products. This is expanding to other products from other agencies.Communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs such as cryosphere, biogeochemistry, etc.

Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of Technology

Model and Observation OverlapInitial Data Sets and Ongoing Efforts

AIRS (≥ 300 hPa)Atm temp profileSpecific humidity

profile

MLS (< 300 hPa)Atm temp profileSpecifc humidity

profile

QuikSCAT Ocean surface winds

TES Ozone profile

AMSR-E SST

TOPEX/JASON SSH

CERES TOA radiation fluxes

TRMM Total precipitation

MODISCloud fraction

Net primary production

11111~4111~6113

Present efforts are working to provide:• CFMIP cloud-related products (much of this

completed)• MISR (land) and MODIS (ocean) AOD• Sea Ice (NSIDC)• CALIPSO Aerosol Optical Extinction Profile• CERES surface radiation budget• MODIS Land (e.g. albedo, LAI, FPAR)

Continued Discussions with ESA EUMETSAT & other groups to expand

holdings.

Initial Phase

WDAC

• WDAC3, Galway, Ireland, May 2014: special session on (sea and land) fluxes: importance for ESM, coupling, …

• ECV inventory being developed jointly by CEOS, CGMS and WMO (WCRP+ GCOS)

• In prep: doc on best practices for data set assessments (+maturity index) and publications (DOI)

• obs4MIPs panel to identify suitable data sets for inclusion in ESGF/obs4MIPS and develop guidelines– obs4MIPs-CMIP workshop: 29 Apr – 1 May, NASA HQ: atmosphere,

ocean, land, cryosphere, carbon, chemistry, radiation, simulators, etc

• ana4MIPs parallel effort to bring reanalyses into ESGF

Key points

• Systematic errors need to be removed as early as possible to improve the science value chain

• Observational uncertainty: key information for climate science (reanalysis, initialized predictions, model development, verification, uncertainty cascading, decision making)

• obs4MIPs: great opportunity for obs provider to make impact and get feedback, exploitation of CDRs by WCRP community, IPCC AR6, …

Thank you for your attention!