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2015 University of Oklahoma International WaTER Conference
Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Interconnected Challenges and Convergent Opportunities
Afreen Siddiqi, Ph.D. Research Scientist September 22, 2015
Harvard Kennedy School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2
Canals in Ancient Egypt
Aquaducts of The Roman Empire
Hydraulic Civilizations: A Historical Perspective
3
Modern systems for water, energy, and food have become inter-connected
4
Growing demands for water, energy, and food have intensified inter-linkages
• Many new water supplies – desalination, waste-water recycling – require more energy than traditional sources
! New technologies to access energy resources – such as hydraulic fracturing - use more water
! Bio-fuels can be a source of energy but may impact water use and food production
! Food prices are sensitive to the cost of energy inputs through fertilizers, irrigation, transport and processing.
5
Water security, food security and energy security are interrelated
Water-Energy-Food nexus conceptually recognizes the emergent and intensified interconnections
6
Practitioners have raised concerns over scarcity of one resource impacting production of the other
impact
unce
rtai
nty
Source: World Economic Forum Energy Industry Issue Map 2007/2008
7
impact
unce
rtai
nty
Water
Source: World Economic Forum Energy Industry Issue Map 2008/2009
8
Water Intensity of fuel production
Water Consumption of Energy Resource Extraction, Processing and Conversion, Mielke (2010)
9
Water Intensity of Electricity Generation
Water Consumption of Energy Resource Extraction, Processing and Conversion, Mielke (2010)
Elec
tric
ity g
ener
atio
n an
d co
olin
g te
chno
logi
es
Water consumption (gal/MWh)
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A key challenge in this century is to identify the emergent interconnections and provide convergent solutions
We need to know how does quenching our thirst for water increase our hunger for
energy
and how does our appetite for energy impact the cost of food
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0
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
# of
pub
licat
ions
Journal publication trends show emergence of ‘nexus’ research on water, energy, and food
Data Source: Compendex database
US 35%
Australia 7% Turkey
5% UK 4%
China 4%
France 3%
Germany 3%
Spain 3%
India 3%
UAE 3%
Canada 2%
Sweden 2%
Japan 2%
Netherlands 2%
Greece 2%
S. Korea 2%
South Africa 2%
Others 17%
12
Irrigated-agriculture lies at the core of the water-energy-food nexus
Irrigated agriculture accounts for 40% of global crop production and grew 1.5% annually from 1950s-1990s
13 http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stm
South-Asia has the most intensely irrigated large-scale agriculture system in the world
14
GDP
AGRICULTURE
SERVICES
INDUSTRY
POPULATION: 180 MILLION POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1.8%
82% URBAN
20.1%
25.5% 54.4%
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
The region is a great laboratory and a precursor to what the future may bring to other places with population growth
Pakistan
15
length (km) : 3,180 annual flow (km3) : 207
Avg. Discharge (m3/s) : 6600 Basin Area (km2) : 1,005,786 Total Population (Million) : 237 Basin Precipitation (mm/yr): 423
Source: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.
The Indus Basin spans a million square km and is home to 237 million people
16
" Low precipitation and high ET render the region largely arid.
" Rain fed agriculture is limited.
Ref: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.
17
Key Features of Surface Irrigation System
" ~129 km3 of water is diverted annually to the canal network for irrigating 44 million acres
" There are large delivery losses (40% – 60%) in the surface system
Indus basin irrigation system forms the world’s largest contiguous network of surface canals
18
y = -0.1824x + 67.443 R² = 0.11952
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
60.000
65.000
70.000
75.000
1980
-81
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81-
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1982
-83
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2010
-11
Bill
ion
Cub
ic M
eter
s
Canal Withdrawal in Punjab Total-BCM Linear(Total-BCM)
The trend is of decreasing annual canal withdrawals
Canal water availability has slightly declined annually
Data Source: Punjab Development Statistics 2012
19
Tubewells in 1995 Tubewells in 2010
Dot Density: 1 dot = 500 Tubewells
A conjunctive irrigation system has emerged with surface and ground water use that now depends on energy
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
20
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000 19
70-7
1 19
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2 19
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3 19
73-7
4 19
74-7
5 19
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6 19
76-7
7 19
77-7
8 19
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9 19
79-8
0 19
80-8
1 19
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2 19
82-8
3 19
83-8
4 19
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5 19
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6 19
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7 19
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8 19
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9 19
89-9
0 19
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1 19
91-9
2 19
92-9
3 19
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4 19
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5 19
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6 19
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7 19
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8 19
98-9
9 19
99-0
0 20
00-0
1 20
01-0
2 20
02-0
3 20
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4 20
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5 20
05-0
6 20
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7 20
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8 20
08-0
9
Tube
wel
ls in
Pun
jab
Total Electric Tubewells Total Diesel Tubewells
off-grid distributed system
A massive pumping system draws water from the ground to augment surface water supplies for agriculture
Data Source: Punjab Development Statistics
21
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000 19
86-8
7 19
87-8
8 19
88-8
9 19
89-9
0 19
90-9
1 19
91-9
2 19
92-9
3 19
93-9
4 19
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5 19
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6 19
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7 19
97-9
8 19
98-9
9 19
99-0
0 20
00-0
1 20
01-0
2 20
02-0
3 20
03-0
4 20
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5 20
05-0
6 20
06-0
7 20
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8 20
08-0
9
Irrig
ated
Are
a (W
heat
) [10
00 h
ecta
res]
Punj
ab C
anal
Div
ersi
ons
(Rab
i) [M
AF]
Canal Diversions (MAF)
Estimated Pumpage Irrigated Area
Decreasing surface water supplies have led to increased ground water pumping ! Energy input for irrigated agriculture has increased
Bridging the Supply Gap with Pumped Water
Siddiqi, A. (2012), MITEI Annual Research Conference, MIT .
22
Reported data of energy use in agriculture provides only partial information of total energy used in the sector
-
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1980
-81
1981
-82
1982
-83
1983
-84
1984
-85
1985
-86
1986
-87
1987
-88
1988
-89
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1990
-91
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9 20
09-1
0 20
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1 20
11-1
2
k TO
E
Energy Use in Agriculture in Pakistan Agri Sector LDO [kTOE]
Agri Electricity in Pakistan [kTOE]
Data Source: Energy Year Book, HDIP (2010, 2012)
23
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000
1,000,000
1970
-71
1972
-73
1974
-75
1976
-77
1978
-79
1980
-81
1982
-83
1984
-85
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-87
1988
-89
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-91
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-93
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-95
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-01
2002
-03
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-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
Tube
wel
ls in
Pun
jab
Total Electric Tubewells Total Diesel Tubewells
Pumping system and farming machinery stock levels used for bottom up estimation of HSD consumption
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
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1994
19
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2010
20
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Num
ber o
f Tra
ctor
s in
Pu
njab
! Operation and usage data obtained from Punjab Agricultural Machinery Census of 1994 and 2004
! Annual fuel use volume (Vkfuel) for
each type of element (power level and fuel use type) was estimated as:
where:
Sk: stock level of machinery in year k
cfuel: fuel consumption /hr
U: annual utilization
t: operating hours per day
d: number of operating days per year
€
Vfuel
k = Sk × c fuel ×Uk
U = t × d
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
24
Benchmarking of the results showed reasonable agreement with reported data
! The ratio of HSD motors used for water pumping changes from 24% (of total installed base) in 1994 census to 80% in the 2004 census.
! This shift in fuel type contributes to steady decline of LDO sales
! We compared country-level results of Pak-IEM model (which is MARKAL adapted for Pakistan)
Agriculture Energy Use (2007)
Pak-IEM Estimate (Pakistan)
Pak-IEM derived estimate for Punjab
MIT Study data and results
Electricity 0.8 Mtoe 0.8 X 0.47 = 370 ktoe
312 ktoe
LDO 0.1 Mtoe 0.1 X 0.9 = 90 ktoe
81 ktoe
HSD 2.7 Mtoe 2.7 X 0.9 = 2.43 Mtoe
2.4 Mtoe
Source: Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) – Final Report Vol. I, 2010
Electricity LDO HSD
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
k TO
E
Punjab Agri LDO Use bottom-up estimate of LDO use
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
25
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1994
-95
1995
-96
1996
-97
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-98
1998
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-00
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-01
2001
-02
2002
-03
2003
-04
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-05
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-06
2006
-07
2007
-08
2008
-09
2009
-10
k TO
E
Energy Use by Application and Fuel Type in Punjab Agriculture Electricity (pumping)
LDO (pumping)
HSD (pumping)
HSD (Farm Ops)
Water pumping is estimated to account for 61% of direct energy use in 2010 in farm-level operations
pumping
pumping
pumping
field operations
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan”, Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
26
Energy estimates for agriculture show that the sector accounted for 20% of total energy use in Punjab in 2010
Domestic 12%
Industry 12%
Agriculture 20%
Transport 17% Commercial
2%
Power 35%
Other 2%
Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]
Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 3118 Commercial: 287 Transport: 2634* Power: 5305 Other: 366
Total: 15259
Water pumping (~1909 kToe) is 12% of total energy use in the province in 2010.
Farm operations with tractors (~ 1209 kToe) is 8% of total energy use in 2010.
*HSD use estimate for agriculture was subtracted from official HSD transport numbers keeping the reported total energy use for the province
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
27
In contrast: reported estimates for agriculture (that exclude HSD) show only a 3% share in total energy use in the province in 2010
Domestic 12%
Industry 12%
Agriculture 3%
Transport 34%
Power 35%
Govt. 2%
Commercial 2%
Reported Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]
Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 467 Commercial: 287 Transport: 5265 Power: 5305 Other: 366
Domestic 12%
Industry 12%
Agriculture 20%
Transport 17%
Commercial 2%
Power 35%
Other 2%
Estimation Adjusted Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe]
Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 3118 Commercial: 287 Transport: 2634 Power: 5305 Other: 366
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
28
Direct energy intensity for crop production in Punjab has increased from 1.03 MJ/kg to 1.86 MJ/kg
0.0000
0.2000
0.4000
0.6000
0.8000
1.0000
1.2000
1.4000
1.6000
1.8000
2.0000
MJ
/ kg
Direct Energy Intensity for Crop Production in Punjab Total pumping field operations
Siddiqi, A. and Wescoat, J. L., “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan” , Water International (2013) 38 (5), pp 571-586.
29 source: h*p://paksolarcells.com/solar-‐cells-‐posi4oning.asp?nodeid=43
Solar energy has significant potential for reducing dependence on diesel for pumping
Annual Solar Insolation in Pakistan
30
Changing the equation for small hydro-power systems?
Siddiqi, A., Wescoat, J. L. Jr., Afridi, K., and Humair, S., (2012), “An Empirical Analysis of the Indus Basin Hydropower Portfolio”, Energy Policy, 50, pp 228-241
31
! Consider water, energy, food security as connected problems
! Identify and fill critical knowledge gaps – current information is fragmented, incomplete, and at times incorrect – identify the extent of inter-dependencies – establish or expand local research
! Use knowledge of interactions to devise strategies and inform decisions – the options space and decision space becomes larger for finding
solutions to simultaneously address multiple needs – new strategic incentive structures can be built and utilized
Some key take-aways
32
“Due to declining performance of the sector, as well as increased cost of inputs and inflation, the cost of food per head in the province has gone beyond Rs.3000 [$30] per month”
(‘Stagnation in Punjab Agriculture’ – DAWN)
33
QUESTIONS?
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