vladimer papava - georgian foundation for strategic and ... da `ekonomikuri primitivizmi~....
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eqspertis azri
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vladimer papava
saqarTvelos ekonomika -
optimizmidan primitivizmamde
eqspertis azri
vladimer papava
saqarTvelos ekonomika -optimizmidan primitivizmamde
75
2017
ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
publikacia daibeWda TurqeTis TanamSromlobisa da koordinaciis saagentos finansuri mxardaWeriT.
teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi
saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe publikaciis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos aranairi, maT Soris eleqtronuli an meqanikuri, formiT. gamocemaSi gamoTqmuli mosazrebebi da daskvnebi ekuTvnis avtors/ebs da SeiZleba ar asaxavdes saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis
fondis Tvalsazriss.
© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2017 weli
ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-9766-9
Sesavali
2016 wlis saparlamento arCevnebma cxadyo, rom momdevno (iseve, rogorc wina) oTxi weli `ganwirulia~ saxe lisuflebo partiis _ ̀ qarTuli ocnebis~ (amJamad ukve sakonstitucio umravlesobiT) da yofili saxelisuflebo, nawilobriv saxelSecvlili, partiis _ `erTiani nacionaluri moZraobis~ (kvlav saparlamento umciresobiT) dapirispirebisaTvis. parlamentSi moxvedrili mesame partiis _ `saqarTvelos patriotTa aliansis~ mcirericxovan fraqcias ki saparlamento gadawyvetilebebze raime zegavlena ver eqneba.
moqmedi da yofili saxelisuflebo partiebis saparlamento dapirispireba jer kidev 2012 wlis saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg daiwyo.
2012 wlis am arCevnebis Semdeg `qarTuli ocnebis~ amomrCeveli eloda, rom saqarTveloSi daiwyeboda samarTlianobis aRdgenis Seuqcevadi procesi, anu is, risTvisac amomrCevelma xma ̀ qarTul ocnebas~ misca. samwuxarod, yvelasaTvis moulodnelad, ̀ qarTuli ocnebis~ liderebma sajarod gamoacxades, rom am arCevnebis Semdeg qveyanaSi unda dawyebuliyo kohabitaciis procesi, anu arCevnebSi gamarjvebuli `qarTuli ocnebis~ da damarcxebuli `erTiani nacionaluri moZraobis~ Tanaarseboba1. es ar yofila qarTuli sazogadoebis umravlesobis dakveTa. kohabitacia dasavleTis, aSSisa da evrokavSiris iniciativa iyo2.
Tavis mxriv, kohabitaciiT aixsna, rom saxelmwifo institutebSi `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobas sakadro cvlilebebi ar gautarebia, ris Sedegadac 2016 wlisaTvis kohabitacia, rogorc aseTi, dasrulda da mis nacvlad saxezea ori, erTi SexedviT gansxvavebuli ideologiis matarebeli politikuri Zalis _ `qarTul ocnebis~ da `erTiani nacionaluri moZraobis~ _ saxelisuflebo integracia, rac imaSic gamoixata, rom am ukanaskneli partiis ideuri mimdevrebi mravlad arian warmodgenili saministroebis da uwyebebis aparatebSi, rom araferi vTqvaT zeda samTavrobo eSelonebsa da parlamentis sakonstitucio umravlesobaze.
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2012 da 2016 wlebis winasaarCevno periodebSi `qarTulma ocnebam~ araerTi dapireba misca Tavis amomrCevels, gansakuTrebul yuradRebas maT Soris ekonomikuri xasiaTis dapirebebi imsaxurebda, Tumca maTi Sesruleba obieqtur Tu subieqtur mizezTa gamo ver (an jerjerobiT ver) moxerxda.
`qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis ekonomikuri xedva da mis mier gatarebuli ekonomikuri politika SeiZleba or nawilad davyoT da pirobiTad vuwodoT `ekonomikuri optimizmi~ da `ekonomikuri primitivizmi~. ganvixiloT TiToeuli maTganis yvelaze mniSvnelovani momentebi.
ekonomikuri optimizmi
ocneba, rogorc aseTi, optimizms efuZneba, roca meocnebe pozitiurad fiqrobs Tavisi momavlis Sesaxeb. amitom sulac ar aris gasakviri, rom qarTuli sazogadoebis didi nawili `qarTuli ocnebis~ saxelis mqone politikur partias Tavidanve optimisturi ganwyobiT Sexvda.
miuxedavad imisa, rom ukve araerTi welia, rac ekonomikuri optimizmis indeqsi gaiangariSeba3, samwuxarod, ekonomikuri optimizmis Teoriuli safuZvlebi, jerjerobiT Seqmnili ar aris4 da is umTavresad sociologiuri kvlevis sagans warmoadgens5.
didi mniSvneloba aqvs imis xazgasmas, rom `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobam, ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebis miuxedavad6, Tavidanve optimisturi xasiaTis nabijebi gadadga.
evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmeba. 2012 wlis bolodan xelisuflebaSi mosuli `qarTuli ocneba~ araerTi gamowvevis winaSe dadga7, romelTa Sorisac erTerTi umTavresi evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebis miRweva iyo. am ukanasknelis mniSvnelovani Semadgeneli nawili evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis Sesaxeb SeTanxmebaa (DCFTA)8. `nacionaluri moZraobis~ mTavrobisaTvis ganviTarebis evropuli gza, samwuxarod, umTavresad artikulaciiT Semoifargleboda, xolo realuri qmedebiT yvelaferi keTdeboda imisaTvis, rom saqarTvelo ar daaxloeboda evrokavSirs9. realurad qveyanas kursi singapurizaciisaken hqonda aRebuli10.
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`qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobam SeZlo is, rom saqarTvelom 2014 wlis ivnisSi evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebas moawera xeli11, romelic 2016 wlis 1 ivlisidan amoqmedda.
evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebis xelmowera da evrokavSirTan Rrma da yovlismomcveli Tavisufali savaWro sivrcis SeTanxmebis amoqmedeba `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis yvelaze mniSvnelovan pozitiur nabijad unda CaiTvalos. man, Tavis mxriv, saqarTvelos moqalaqeTa did nawilSi ekonomikuri optimizmis gaZlierebas Seuwyo xeli.
biznesze mTavrobis araformaluri zewolis gauqmeba. ekonomikuri optimizmis safuZvels qmnida `qarTuli ocnebis~ danapirebi, rom aRmoifxvreboda saxelmwifos mxridan biznesze araformaluri zewolis mavne praqtika, rac nacionalebisaTvis Cveulebrivi movlena iyo12. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom `qarTulma ocnebam~ es danapirebi13 mTlianad Seasrula.
`saqarTvelo 2020~. `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis ekonomikuri optimizmis TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoadgens 2014 wels am mTavrobisve damtkicebuli `saqarTvelos socialurekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategia _ saqarTvelo 2020~14 (mokled _ `saqarTvelo 2020~).
`saqarTvelo 2020is~ Tanaxmad, saqarTvelos mTavrobis ekonomikuri politika sam umTavres princips unda emyarebodes, romelTagan pirveli ekonomikis realuri seqtoris ganviTarebaze orientirebuli swrafi da efeqtiani ekonomikuri zrdis uzrunvelyofaa; meore principi inkluziuri ekonomikuri zrdis xelSemwyobi ekonomikuri politikis gatarebaSi mdgomareobs; mesame principi ki ekonomikuri ganviTarebis procesSi bunebrivi resursebis racionaluri gamoyeneba, ekologiuri usafrTxoebisa da mdgradobis uzrunvelyofa da bunebrivi kataklizmebis riskebis Tavidan acilebaa15.
am dokumentis Tanaxmad, saqarTvelos mTavrobas aqcenti unda gaekeTebina qveynis inovaciur ganviTarebaze, codnaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikis Seqmnaze, rac, ra Tqma unda, didi imedis momcemi iyo. inovaciuri biznesis xelSewyobisaTvis ki didi mniSvneloba aqvs programa ̀ startap saqarTvelos~ dawyebas16.
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saqarTvelos mTavrobis dadgenilebaSi, romliTac damtkicda `saqarTvelo 2020~, saministroebs da sxva samTavrobo uwyebebs miecaT davaleba, rom yoveli wlis 30 ivnisamde `saqarTvelo 2020dan~ gamomdinere SeimuSaon saSualovadiani samoqmedo gegmebi17. samwuxarod, saqarTvelos mTavrobis es davaleba ar Sesrulebula, ramac kiTxvis niSnis qveS daaye na xsenebul dokumentSi, `saqarTvelo 2020Si~, dasaxuli miznebisa da amocanebis ganxorcielebis SesaZlebloba.
ekonomikuri primitivizmi
rogorc cnobilia, sityva `optimizmis~ antonimi aris `pesimizmi~ da ara _ `primitivizmi~. ufro metic, primitiuloba, rogorc rTuli sakiTxis mimarT gamartivebuli midgoma, sulac ar gamoricxavs optimizms.
ekonomikuri primitivizmis Sesaxeb araerTi mniSvnelovani naSromi arsebobs, romelTa Soris sayuradReboa gamokvlevebi ekonomikuri anTropologiis18, anarqoprimitivizmis19 da libertarianizmis20 kuTxiT. ekonomikuri primitiviz mis qarTul versias ki srulebiT gansxvavebuli safuZveli aqvs. kerZod, Tanamedrove saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri primitivizmiT gamowveuli Tu am privitivizmis Tanamdevi optimizmi umTavresad im adamianebisTvisaa damaxasiaTebeli, visac ekonomikuri mecnierebis sakmarisi codna ar aqvT.
`mTavrobis 4-punqtiani gegma~. ekonomikuri primitivizmis TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoadgens ukve premierministris rangSi giorgi kvirikaSvilis mier inicirebuli `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegma~. es gegma man pirvelad biznesmenebs 2016 wlis dasawyisSi gaacno 21, Tumca Tavad dokumenti werilobiTi saxiT maSin ar arsebobda. sainteresoa, rom msjeloba am gegmis Sesaxeb Tveebis manZilze ise mimdinareobda, rom Tavad gegma dawerili arc ki yofila. samwuxarod, gagrZelda saqarTveloSi nacionaluri moZraobis mTavrobis damkvidrebuli maxinji tradicia _ ararsebuli dokumentebis sajaro prezentacia. kerZod, rogorc pirveli aseTi sajaro prezentaciis uSualo damswre vadastureb, rom jer kidev 2004 wlis zafxulSi imdroindelma premierministrma warmoad
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gina axali, Tumca prezentaciis droisaTvis jer ardawerili sagadasaxado kodeqsi22.
`mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegma~, werilobiTi saxiT, pirvelad 2016 wlis Semodgomis saparlamento arCevnebisaTvis partia `qarTuli ocnebis~ momzadebuli winasaarCevno programis _ `Tavisufleba, swrafi ganviTareba, keTildReoba~ _ boloSi gamoCnda23. mogvianebiT ki, saparlamento arCevnebSi gamarjvebuli `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis imave saxel wodebis mqone samTavrobo programaSic Sevida24.
`mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmis~ punqtebia: 1. ekonomikuri reforma; 2. ganaTlebis reforma; 3. sivrciTi mowyoba; 4. mmarTvelobis reforma.
punqti 1is qvakuTxeds warmoadgens biznesis gaTavisufleba mogebis gadasaxadisagan, mogebis reinvestirebis SemTxvevaSi.
punqti 2is mixedviT, profesiuli ganaTlebis sistemam orientacia unda aiRos swavlebis dualur, anu samuSaoze dafuZnebul midgomaze, romlis Tanaxmadac, saswavlebeli da potenciuri damsaqmebeli erToblivad ganaxorcieleben saswavlo programebs; sauniversiteto ganaTleba ki orientirebuli iqneba ekonomikis faqtobriv saWiroebebze, rac unda gamovlindes Sromis bazris analizis gziT.
punqti 3is Tanaxmad, qveynis sivrciTma mowyobam xeli unda Seuwyos qalaqebisa da soflebis gaazrebul ganaSenianebas, regionebis damakavSirebeli satransporto qselis ganviTarebas, romlis saboloo mizania saqarTvelo gaxdes oTxi sezonis turistuli qveyana.
punqti 4 ki gulisxmobs mmarTvelobis efeqtianobis gazrdas.
ekonomikis didi codna ar aris saWiro imisTvis, rom dainaxo sxvaoba zemoxsenebul ̀ saqarTvelo 2020sa~ da ̀ mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmas~ Soris: metnaklebad srulyofili, qveynis inovaciur ganviTarebaze orientirebuli strategia dayvanilia 4 fragmentul punqtze.
mTavari problema ki isaa, rom `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegma~ xels Seuwyobs saqarTveloSi aramwarmoebluri da imav droulad momxmarebluri ekonomikis modelis25 SenarCu
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nebaganmtkicebas. samwuxarod, ekonomikis realuri seqtoris ganuviTareblobis gamo qveyana ufro mets moixmars, vidre Tavad awarmoebs, ris Sedegadac wlebis ganmavlobaSi importi eqsports saSualod 34jer aRemateba, xolo samomxmareblo kalaTaSi (iseve, rogorc sasursaTo kalaTaSi) importuli produqcia saSualod 80%is donezea.
am viTarebaSi, `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmis~ pirveli punqti gaaZlierebs saqarTveloSi arsebul firmebs, romelTa umravlesobac damaxasiaTebelia aramwarmoebluri da imavdroulad momxmarebluri ekonomikisaTvis. `estonuri modelis~ saxeliT cnobili sistema, roca mogebis gadasaxadiT reinvestirebuli mogeba ar daibegreba finansuri seqtoris (komerciul bankebi, sakredito kavSirebi, sadazRvevo organizaciebi, mikrosafinanso organizaciebi da lombardebi) garda, saqarTveloSi ZalaSi Sevida 2017 wlidan, xolo finansuri seqtorze gavrceldeba 2019 wlidan26. gaugebaria, Tu ratom unda mieces sagadasaxado SeRavaTi mogebis reinvestirebisaTvis restornebsa da sastumroebs, rom araferi vTqvaT finansur seqtorze: isini xom am SeRavaTis gareSec mravladaa saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi. umjobesi iyo es sagadasaxado SeRavaTi miscemoda realuri seqtoris mxolod im firmebs, romlebic inovaciuri teqnologiebis gamoyenebis mizniT moaxdendnen mogebis reinvestirebas. am tipis firmebis ukiduresi simwiris gaTvaliswinebiT, mogebis gadasaxadis xsenebuli estonuri modeli xels Seuwyobs saqarTveloSi isev da isev ekonomikis momxmarebluri struqturis gamyarebas da aranair stimuls ar miscems TiTqmis ararsebul inovaciur realur seqtors.
sayuradReboa, rom xsenebuli estonuri modeli aranair SeRavaTs ar aZlevs saSualo da mcire bizness, xolo msxvil biznesSi gaarTulebs administrirebas, radganac mewarmeebs ukve yovelTviurad eqnebaT finansTa saministros Semosavlebis samsaxurSi sagadasaxado deklaraciebi warsadgeni27.
aq erTi momenticaa gasaxsenebeli: araTu mxolod erTi saxeobis sagadasaxado SeRavaTi, aramed erTad aRebuli TiTqmis yvela sagadasaxado da yvelanairi sxva SesaZlo SeRavaTic, romelic gamoiyeneba Tavisufal ekonomikur zonaSi,
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sulac ar aris sakmarisi ekonomikis Tundac mocemul zonaSi warmatebuli ganviTarebisaTvis, rasac, samwuxarod, rogorc mosalodneli iyo, Tavad saqarTvelos gamocdilebac adasturebs28.
imave Sinaarsobrivi datvirTvisaa `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmis~ meore punqtic. isev da isev imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom saqarTveloSi TiTqmis ar aris inovaciuri ekonomikis realuri seqtori, profesiuli ganaTlebis sistemis orientacia mxolod samuSaoze dafuZnebul swavlebis midgomaze, xolo sauniversiteto ganaTlebis orientacia _ mxolod ekonomikis faqtobriv saWiroebebze arc arasdors uzrunvelyofs codnaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikisaTvis Sesabamisi specialistebis momzadebas29. maSasadame, profesiuli da sauniversiteto ganaTlebis orientacia ekonomikis mxolod mimdinare da ara perspeqtiul saWiroebebze xels Seuwyobs ekonomikis saqarTvelos momxmarebluri struqturis ganmtkicebas.
`mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmis~ mesame punqtis mixedviT, qveynis sivrciTma mowyobam xeli unda Seuwyos imas, rom saqarTvelo gaxdes oTxi sezonis turistuli qveyana. sayurad Reboa, rom saqarTvelos ekonomikisaTvis turizmis prioritetulobis sakiTxi aqtualuri iyo rogorc nacionaluri moZraobis30, ise ̀ qarTuli ocnebis~31 mTavrobebisaTvis. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom, rogorc zemoT aRiniSna, saqarTvelos samomxmareblo da sasursaTo kalaTebSi importul saqonels 80% ukavia, qveyanaSi Camosuli turistebisaTvis, rogorc damatebiTi momxmareblebisTvis, unda ganxorcieldes damatebiTi importi, radgan saqarTvelo awarmoebs moxmarebuli sursaTis mxolod 20%s da, samwuxarod, saerTod ar awarmoebs turistebis qveynis SigniT gadaadgilebisaTvis saWiro satransporto saSualebebsa da sawvavs. amitom mTavrobis zrunva mxolod da mxolod turizmis ganviTarebaze namdvilad ar uwyobs xels qveynis ekonomikis mravalferovan ganviTarebas da ar aZlierebs momxmarebluri ekonomikisaTvis damaxasiaTebel tendenciebs.
`mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmis~ meoTxe punqtis Sesaxeb cota qvemoT gveqneba saubari.
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aSkaraa, rom `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmis~ pirveli sami punqti ewinaaRmdegeba qveynis inovaciuri ganviTarebis strategias da, amdenad, zemoxsenebul `saqarTvelo 2020sac~. samwuxaroa, magram faqtia, rom `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegma~ ekonomikuri mecnierebis ugulebelyofiT ganpirobebuli ekonomikuri primitivizmis TvalsaCino nimuSia.
am fonze gaocebas iwvevs, rom msoflio bankis regionulma direqtorma moiwona `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegma~,32 Tumca es sulac ar unda aRviqvaT moulodnelad, Tuki gavixsenebT saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebis mier saqarTveloSi Segnebulad Tu Seugneblad adrec daSvebul Secdomebs33.
saxelmwifo biujetSi garRvevis dabalanseba. Tavidanve naTeli iyo, rom mogebis gadasaxadis zemoxsenebul estonur modelze gadasvla saxelmwifo biujetSi sagadasaxado Semosavlebis mniSvnelovan klebas gamoiwvevda34. imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom 2016 weli saparlamento arCevnebis weli iyo, mTavrobam am RonisZiebis gatareba 2017 wlisaTvis gadado.
radganac mogebis gadasaxadidan misaRebi Semosavlebi akldeba saxelmwifo biujets, amitom mTavrobam gadawyvita aqcizis gadasaxadebis da saTamaSo biznesSi mosakreblebis gazrda35. Tu am ukanasknelis mimarT pozitiuri damokidebuleba aqvT rogorc ekonomistebs, ise mTlianad sazogadoebas, aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrda seriozul kiTxvebs aCens. kerZod, aqcizi Tambaqos nawarmze 2017 wlidan gaizarda: filtrian sigaretze _ TiTqmis 1,9jer, xolo ufiltroze _ 2jer, rac aCens kiTxvas: xom ar Seuwyobs es xels Tambaqos biznesis Tundac nawilis Crdilovan seqtorSi gadasvlas?
2017 wlidan mniSvnelovnad gaizarda aqcizi sawvavze: benzinze _ 2jer, dizelze _ TiTqmis 2,7jer, xolo saavtomobilo gazze _ 2,5jer. bunebrivia, sawvavze fasis zrda uaryofiTad aisaxeba rogorc mTlianad ekonomikaze, ise mosaxleobis socialur mdgomareobaze.
msubuq avtomobilebze aqcizis gadasaxadi gaizarda umTavresad 6 wlisa da ufro xandazmuli manqanebis importisas. amgvari midgoma mimarTulia xeli Seuwyos qveyanaSi arsebuli moZvelebuli avtoparkis TandaTanobiT ganaxlebas.
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ibadeba logikuri kiTxva: mogebis gadasaxadis estonuri modelis gamoyenebis Sedegad sagadasaxado Semosavlebis klebis kompensireba ratom xdeba mxolod aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrdis xarjze, ratom ar Seexo mTavroba sxva saxis gadasaxadebs?
saqme isaa, rom jer kidev nacionaluri moZraobis mTavrobis mmarTvelobisas konstituciaSi Sevida cvlileba, romlis Tanaxmadac, garda aqcizis gadasaxadisa, nebismieri sxva saxis gadasaxadis ganakveTis zrda an axali saxeobis gadasaxadis SemoReba SesaZlebelia mxolod da mxolod referendumis gziT36. sagadasaxado politikis regulireba referendumiT aSkarad gaumarTlebelia, radganac referendumi yovelgvar azrsaa moklebuli: winaswar SeiZleba darwmunebiT iTqvas, rom absoluturi umravlesobiT yvela, vinc referendmuSi miiRebs monawileobas, moqmedi gadasaxadebis ganakveTis zrdis an axali saxeobis gadasaxadis SemoRebis winaaRmdegi iqneba. samwuxarod, `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavroba da saparlamento umravlesoba, romlebmac 2017 wlisaTvis gadawyvites moqmedi konstituciis gadasinjva37, jerjerobiT ar apireben sagadasaxado politikis referendumis _ am populisturi gziT regulaciis gauqmebas...
imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrda arapopularulia, mTavrobam 2017 wlis biujetiT aiRo sabiujeto xarjebis Semcirebis valdebuleba. kerZod, sabiujeto organizaciebis umravlesobaSi 10%iT Semcirdeba Sromis anazRaurebis fondi da aseve 10%iT daiklebs administraciuli xarjebi38. mTavroba am nabijs aseve ukavSirebs zemoxsenebuli `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmis~ punqt 4s, romlis mizanic aris mmarTvelobis efeqtianobis gazrda. samwuxarod, mTavrobas ar aqvs bolomde gaazrebuli, Tu ras niSnavs `mmarTvelobis efeqtianobis gazrda~, xolo am konteqstSi saxelmwifo administraciis xsenebuli 10procentiani Semcireba sakiTxisadmi gamartivebuli midgomaa, radganac marto mTavrobis zomis SemcirebiT misi efeqtianobis zrda sulac ar aris garantirebuli39.
samwuxaroa, rom mTavroba arc imas iTvaliswinebs, rom Tundac sawvavis gaZvirebis gziT inflaciis stimulirebis pirobebSi sabiujeto organizaciebSi Semcireba kidev ufro
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gaarTulebs qveyanaSi socialur mdgomareobas, rac politikurad aranairad ar unda Sediodes gonieri mTavrobis interes Si.
ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis programa. 2014 wlis noem bridan saqarTvelos erovnulma valutam _ larma _ gaufasureba daiwyo 40, rac 20152016 wlebSi kidev ufro swrafi tempiT gagrZelda41. am procesma mZime mdgomareobaSi Caayena mosaxleobis is nawili, romelsac ipoTekuri sesxi komerciuli bankebidan ucxour valutaSi aqvs aRebuli. mosaxleobis am jgufis (sul 33 aTasi msesxebeli) dasaxmareblad mTavrobam sesxebis galarebis programis dawyeba gadawyvita42.
es programa nebayoflobiTia da Seexeba mxolod maT, visac ipoTekuri sesxi ucxour valutaSi aqvs aRebuli 2015 wlis 1 ianvramde da am droisaTvis visi wliuri Semosavalic ar aRemateboda 100 aTas lars. Tanac programa vrceldeba ipoTekuri sesxis im nawilze, romelic aseve ar aRemateba 100 aTas lars. sesxebis galareba moxdeba galarebis dRes arsebul oficialur gacvliT kurss gamoklebuli 0,2 lari, rac subsidirebuli iqneba saxelmwifo biujetidan da rac jamSi 65 mln. lars Seadgens43. sayuradReboa, rom saqarTvelos erovnuli banki miawvdis komerciul bankebs galarebisaTvis saWiro ucxour valutas da laris likvidobaSic Seuwyobs xels. xazgasasmelia, rom galarebis es programa ar iTvaliswinebs komerciuli bankebis mier damatebiTi xarjebis gawevas.
imisaTvis, rom ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis programam ar gamoiwvios laris Semdgomi devalvacia, erovnuli banki saerTaSoriso rezervebidan ucxour valutas komerciul bankebs mihyidis. paralelis gavlebis mizniT gasaxsenebelia, rom, rogorc wesi, saqarTvelos erovnuli banki didi sifrTxiliT ekideba savaluto rezervis xarjvas erovnuli valutis stabilurobis SesanarCuneblad, Tumca es ar vrcel deba ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis mocemul programaze. Sedegad, es programa, Tavis mxriv, ar gamoiwvevs laris gaufasurebas.
xazi imasac unda gaesvas, rom gaugebaria, Tu ratom uwodebs mTavroba ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis programas socialurs44, radgan es programa sulac ar exeba qveynis
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gaWirvebul mosaxleobas: ucxour valutaSi ipoTekur sesxs saqarTvelos dabalSemosavliani moqalaqe veranairad aiRebs, maSin roca am programis SesrulebisaTvis saxelmwifo biujetidan gaRebuli zemoxsenebuli subsidiis damfinansebeli (gadaxdili gadasaxadebiT) aris mTeli qveyana, maT Soris _ aSkarad mcirexelfasiani moqalaqeebic (saSemosavlo gadasaxads saSualod 900 aTasi adamiani ixdis).
mTavrobis SeuTanxmebeli gancxadebebis da gauazrebe-li RonisZiebebis zegavlena savaluto bazarze. saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg, 2016 wlis noembris bolos, saqarTvelos parlamentma `qarTuli ocnebis~ nawilobriv ganaxlebuli mTavroba (Tumca isev giorgi kvirikaSvilis premierministrobiT) daamtkica45. sayuradReboa, rom arc winasaarCevno partiul programaSi46 da arc parlamentSi damtkicebul samTavrobo programaSi47 saerTod ar iyo saubari zemoxsenebul aqcizis gadasaxadebis zrdaze, sabiujeto xarjebis 10%ian Semcirebasa Tu ipoTekuri sesxebis galarebis sqemaze48, rac mTavrobam ramdenime dReSi gaasajarova.
samwuxarod, mTavrobam es iniciativebi ise gaasajarova, rom biznesis warmomadgenlebTan (maT Soris, komerciul bankebTan) ar hqonda SeTanxmebuli. ufro metic, rogorc gairkva, arc Tavad mTavrobas hqonda bolomde gaazrebuli xsenebuli RonisZiebebi. amis TvalsaCino magaliTs warmoadgens premierministris gancxadeba, rom onlainsesxebi saerTod unda akrZaluliyo49, romelic or dReSi uaryo saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis viceprezidentmac50 da finansTa ministris moadgilemac51. sayuradReboa, rom onlainsesxebze dawesebuli SezRudvebi qmnian safrTxes, rom biznesis es saxe oba mevaxSeobis formiT ar gadavides ekonomikis Crdilovan seqtorSi52. am tipis gauazrebeli da SeuTanxmebeli iniciativebis gasajarovebam mniSvnelovnad Seuwyo xeli qveynis savaluto bazarze panikas53.
saqarTvelos mosaxleobis da ekonomikis ucxour valutaze (umTavresad dolarze) damokidebulebis Semcirebis mizniT, premierministris iniciativiT, 2017 wlidan 100 aTas laramde, xolo 2018 wlidan 200 aTas laramde sesxebi mxolod erovnul valutaSi unda gaices54. es regulacia dolarze jamur moTxovnas aranairad ar Seamcirebs, radgan
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saqarTvelos komerciul bankebs, rogorc zemoT iTqva, mniSvnelovani odenobis sagareo vali aqvT dagrovebuli, amitom, Tu am regulaciamde dolaris Semsyidvelebi iyvnen dolarSi sesxis amRebi moqalaqeebi, am regulaciis amoqmedebis Semdeg dolaris Semsyidvelebi gaxdebian larSi sesxebis gamcemi bankebi. Sedegad dolarze jamuri moTxovna ar Semcirdeba. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT, larSi ganxorcielebuli transaqciebis wili transaqciebis saerTo raodenobaSi ki gaizrdeba, magram amiT laris gacvliTi kursi ufro stabiluri mainc ver gaxdeba.
saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis daSlis morigi mcdeloba. saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis daSlis pirveli mcdeloba iyo 2008 wels, roca bankis Semadgenlobidan sabanko zedamxedvelobis saagento gamoiyvanes, Tumca 2009 wels saagento kvlav erovnul banks SeuerTda, riTac mas sabanko zedamxedvelobis funqcia daubrunda55.
saqarTvelos erovnuli valutis zemoxsenebuli gaufasurebis fonze 2015 wels `qarTuli ocnebis~ saparlamento umravlesobam erovnuli bankis prezidentis winaaRmdeg im mizeziT gailaSqra, rom Turme laris devalvacia mxolod misi brali iyo. erovnuli valutis devalvaciis gagrZelebis safrTxis Tavidan acilebis mizniT `qarTuli ocnebis~ saparlamento umravlesobam gadawyvita sabanko zedamxedvelobis funqciis bankidan gatana56.
miuxedavad imisa, rom saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebi saqarTvelos xelisuflebas mouwodebdnen es nabiji ar gadaedga (raTa erovnuli banki ar dasustebuliyo)57, parlamentma mainc daamtkica saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis Sesaxeb kanonSi cvlileba. amis Sedegad Camoyalibda formalu rad erovnuli bankis sistemaSi Semavali, Tumca damoukidebeli mmarTvelobis mqone safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagento58.
marTalia, saqarTvelos prezidentma veto daado xsenebul sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebs59, magram `qarTuli ocnebis~ saparlamento umravlesobam veto daZlia60 da es sakanonmdeblo cvlilebebi ZalaSi Seiyvana61.
mogvianebiT saparlamento opoziciis deputatebma ̀ nacionaluri moZraobidan~ da `Tavisufali demokratebidan~
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erToblivi sarCeli Seitanes sakonstitucio sasamarTloSi, romelSic acxadebdnen, rom safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos Seqmna saqarTvelos konstitucias ewinaaRmdegeboda62. sabednierod, sakonstitucio sasamarTlom safinanso zedamxedvelobis saagentos funqcionireba SeaCera im dromde, sanam saboloo gadawyvetilebas miiRebda63.
sakonstitucio sasamarTloSi am sakiTxis ganxilva imden xans gagrZelda, rom erovnuli bankis prezidents uflebamosilebis vada amoewura, xolo axali prezidentis arCevis Semdeg `qarTuli ocnebis~ xelisuflebamac daaneba Tavi bankis instituciuri dakninebis iniciativas64.
`qarTuli ocnebis~ xelisuflebis mier gadadgmuli es nabiji ekonomikuri primitivizmis erTerTi yvelaze STambeWdavi magaliTia, roca imis nacvlad, rom saqarTvelos erovnul bankSi Sesabamisi kanoniT gaTvaliswinebuli sakadro cvlilebebi gaetarebinaT, gadawyvites instituciuri cvlilebebis safuZvelze Tavad erovnuli bankis dasusteba.
ekonomikis saministros Senobis privatizacia. `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobis ekonomikisadmi primitivistuli damokidebulebis erTerTi TvalsaCino magaliTia 2015 wels ekonomikis saministros Senobis privatizacia, ris Sedegadac es Senoba eleqtronul auqcioze 9,45 milion aSS dolarad Cinurma kompania `hualingma~ iyida65. am SenobaSi kompania `hualings~ sastumros gaxsna aqvs gadawyvetili66.
sayuradReboa, rom ekonomikis saministro privatizaciis Semdegac imave SenobaSi darCa da kompania `hualings~ amisaTvis Sesabamis qiras uxdida, sanam SenobaSi xanZari ar gaCnda67. xanZris gamo Senobis gamqiravebeli Cinuri kompaniisaTvis ekonomikis saministros mouwia jarimis gadaxda, Senobis dacla da axali Senobis daqiraveba68...
saministroebis Senobebis gayidva im mizniT, rom am SenobebSi sastumroebi gaxsniliyo, jer kidev `nacionaluri moZraobis~ mTavrobam wamoiwyo69. kerZod, 2007 wels soflis meurneobis saministros Senoba70, xolo 2012 wels iusticiis saministros Senobac71 am mizniT gamoiyenes.
umTavresi gansxvaveba saministroebis Senobebis sastumroebad gadakeTebis sqemaSi is aris, rom ̀ nacionaluri moZ
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raobis~ mTavroba jer gadawyvetda saministrosaTvis axali Senobis sakiTxs (soflis meurneobis saministro gadaiyvanes saxelmwifo sakuTrebaSi arsebul sxva SenobaSi, xolo iusticiis saministrosaTvis jer aSenda axali Senoba da Semdeg daaclevines Zveli) da Semdeg iwyebda Zveli Senobis sastumrod gardaqmnis proeqts, `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobam ki ise gayida ekonomikis saministros Senoba, rom am saministros ganTavsebis sakiTxi mofiqrebulic ki ar hqonda...
saqarTvelos strategiuli obieqtebis gayidva. parlamentSi mTavrobis ndobis mopovebisaTvis premierministrma Tavis sityvaSi ganacxada, rom mTavroba ganixilavs saxelmwifos kuTvnili „saqarTvelos rkinigzisa“ da `navTobis da gazis korporaciis~ aqciebis 25%is safondo birJaze pirveladi ganTavsebis (Initial Public Offering, IPO) sakiTxs72. saqarTvelos strategiuli obieqtebis gasxvisebis Tema sulac ar aris axali, radgan `nacionaluri moZraobis~ mTavroba miiCnevda, rom strategiuli obieqtebi ar arsebobs da rom ruseTisaTvis maTi miyidva sulac ar aris saqarTvelosTvis safrTxis Semcveli73. Tanac es xdeboda im fonze, rom moskovs sajarod hqonda gacxadebuli, rom gegmavda `liberaluri imperiis~ Seqmnas74, anu ekonomikuri meqanizmebiT postsabWoTa (da ara marto) sivrceze zegavlenis damyarebas75.
imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom somxeTis teritoriaze gazsadenebsac da rkinigzasac ruseTis saxelmwifo kompaniebi floben (gazsadenebs _ ̀ gazpromi~, xolo rkinigzas _ kompania `ruseTis rkinigza~, romelmac somxeTis rkinigzas saxelic ki Seucvala da amJamad mas `samxreT kavkasiis rkinigza~ hqvia, rac naTeli aRiarebaa imisa, rom moskovis mizania kontroli daamyaros saqarTvelos rkinigzaze da sabolood _ azerbaijanis rkinigzazec), aSkaraa, rom „saqarTvelos rkinigzisa“ da `navTobis da gazis korporaciis~ aqciebis Tundac 25%is gayidvis SemTxvevaSi umTavresi dainteresebuli mxare swored es rusuli kompaniebi iqnebian.
somxeTazerbaijanis konfliqtis gamo SesaZloa qarTuli aqtivebis myidvelebis rolSi mogvevlinon azerbaijanuli kompaniebi, radgan baqo dainteresebulia xelSi Caigdos erevanze zewolis axali ekonomikuri meqanizmebi. am SemTxvevaSi Tbilisi aucileblad aRmoCndeba somxeTazerbaijanis
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konfliqtSi CaTreuli, rac namdvilad ar Sedis saqarTvelos erovnul interesebSi.
samwuxaroa, rom `qarTuli ocneba~ agrZelebs saqarTvelos erovnuli interesebisaTvis safrTxis Semcvel imave politikas, rasac nacionaluri moZraobis mTavroba misdevda qveynis mmarTvelobaSi yofnis cxra wlis ganmavlobaSi.
rusuli gazis somxeTSi tranzitis safasuri. jer kidev eduard SevardnaZis prezidentobis dros Tbilissa da moskovs Soris gaformda xelSekruleba, romlis Tanaxmadac, `gazpromis~ mier somxeTisaTvis saqarTvelos gavliT magistraluri gazsadeniT miwodebuli gazis tranzitis safasurad saqarTvelos darCeboda am gazis odenobis 10%.
2016 wlis ianvarSi `gazpromis~ moTxovniT daiwyo molaparakeba massa da saqarTvelos energetikis saministros Soris, romlis mizanic iyo gazis tranzitis safasuris naturiT (anu gaziT) gadaxdis sanacvlod saqarTvelos mieRo fuli, gatarebuli gazis Rirebulebis 10%is odenobiT76.
`gazpromis~ es winadadeba saqarTvelosaTvis ekonomikurad aSkarad wamgebiania. amis asaxsnelad unda gavixsenoT, rom jer kidev 2006 wels `gazpromma~ saqarTvelosac da somxeT sac ganucxada, rom 2007 wlidan gazs miawvdida gazrdili tarifiT _ 1 000m3s 230 aSS dolarad, nacvlad 110 aSS dolarisa; amasTan, `gazpromi~ Tanaxma iyo im pirobiT daetovebina Zveli tarifi, Tu mis sakuTrebaSi gadavidoda gazgamanawilebeli obieqtebis is raodenoba, romlis Rirebulebac toli iqneboda axal da Zvel tarifs Soris sxvaoba gamravlebuli moxmarebul gazze77. saqarTvelosgan gansxvavebiT, somxeTi daTanxmda am winadadebas, ris Sedegadac misi gazgamanawilebeli sistema `gazpromis~ sakuTrebaSi gadavida. amis Semdegac, somxeTis ruseTTan daaxloebis fonze, `gazpromis~ mier somxeTisaTvis miwodebuli fasi ganicdida klebas78.
aSkaraa, rom fasTa sxvaobis gamo saqarTvelo somxeTisaTvis gazis gatarebaSi fuliT aRebuli tranzitis safasuriT ver iyidis imden gazs, rac mas rCeba tranzitis safasuris gaziT gadaxdisas.
mas Semdeg, rac gaCnda eWvi, rom saqarTvelos mTavroba daTanxmdeboda `gazproms~ gazis tranzitis safasuris formis Secvlaze, qveyanaSi gamoiTqva mwvave kritikuli mosazre
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bebi79, gaimarTa saprotesto aqciebi80. Sedegad, saqarTvelos energetikis ministrma miaRwia `gazpromTan~ SeTanxmebas, rom 2016 wels (anu erTi wliT) SenarCunebuliyo tranzitis safasuris gaziT gadaxdis moqmedi sistema81.
2017 wlisaTvis `gazpromsa~ da saqarTvelos energetikis saministros Soris molaparakeba gazis tranzitis safasuris formis Taobaze kvlav ganaxlda82. samwuxarod, amjerad energetikis ministri daTanxmda `gazpromis~ winadadebas83.
savaraudod, is, rom 2016 wels saqarTvelos mTavrobam moaxerxa tranzitis safasuris gazis formis SenarCuneba, ganpirobebuli iyo arCevnebiT _ rogorc Cans, Tbilisma moskovs auxsna, rom saparlamento arCevnebis 2016 wlisaTvis `qarTuli ocnebis~ moqmedi mTavrobisTvis da saparlamento umravlesobisTvis wamgebiani iqneboda tranzitis safasuris formis cvlileba da amis erTi wliT gadavadeba iTxova84.
sayuradReboa, rom jer kidev 2016 wlis noemberSi somxeTma ganacxada, rom adgilobrivi momxmareblebisaTvis gazis fasi Semcirdeboda, radganac `gazpromi~ 2017 wlidan Seumcirebda saqarTvelos gazis tranzitis safasurs misi naturaluri formidan fulad formaSi gadayvaniT85. aSkaraa, rom es informacia (anu is, rom `gazpromi~ eloda Tbilisisagan tranzitis safasuris formis Secvlas da raodenobis Semcirebas, ris xarjzec erevani iZleoda dapirebas, rom adgilobriv momxmareblebs gazis tarifi SeumcirdebodaT) unda scodnoda saqarTvelos mTavrobas.
Tuki qarTuli mxare mainc iZulebuli iyo tranzitis safasuri Seemcirebina, jobda tranzitis safasuris naturaluri forma ar Seecvala da gatarebuli gazis 10%is nacvlad ufro naklebi procentuli odenobis gazi aeRo 86.
aucileblad gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom saqarTvelo moqceulia axladSeqmnili evraziuli ekonomikuri kavSiris ori wevrs _ ruseTsa da somxeTs _ Soris, amitom safrTxe imisa, rom saqarTvelos aiZulon am kavSirSi Sesvla, didia87. Tanac amjerad Tbilisma moskovs xelSi misca energetikuli berketic, radganac `gazproms~ SeuZlia daTmobaze wavides da tranzitis safasurad aRebuli TanxiT (anu ufro dabali tarifiT) gvayidinos somxeTis mimarTulebiT gagzavnili gazis 10% (rac aqamde tranzitis safasurSi gvrCeboda), Tuki
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saqarTvelo gaxdeba evraziuli ekonomikuri kavSiris wevri. xazgasasmelia, rom am ukanasknelis arsebobis ekonomikur safuZvels swored energetikuli resursiT miRebuli Semosavlebis gadanawilebis meqnizmi warmoadgens88.
ekonomikuri primitivizmis magaliTad unda miviCnioT is, rom saqarTvelos mTavrobis wevrebma saqarTvelosaTvis es saziano gadawyvetileba Seafases, rogorc `optimaluri~89, `maqsimaluri~90, xolo sakuTari sisustiT (ukeTes SemTxvevaSi) qveynisaTvis ekonomikuri zaralis miyeneba `sabazro princips~ daabrales91.
daskvna
2012 da 2016 wlebis saparlamento arCevnebSi gamarjvebuli `qarTuli ocnebis~ mTavrobisaTvis sawyis etapze damaxasiaTebeli iyo ekonomikuri optimizmis Sesatyvisi nabijebis gadadgma, romelTagan istoriuli mniSvnelobisaa evrokavSirTan asocirebis SeTanxmebis xelmowera, ris safuZvelzec saqarTvelos ekonomika evrokavSiris Rrma da yovlismomcvel Tavisufal savaWro sivrces miuerTda. am konteqstSi mniSvnelovani iyo saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier damtkicebuli `saqarTvelos socialurekonomikuri ganviTarebis strategia _ saqarTvelo 2020~ (`saqarTvelo 2020~), romliTac mTavrobam miznad daisaxa qveyanaSi inovaciuri ekonomikis, codnaze dafuZnebuli ekonomikis Seqmna. wina xelisuflebis mankieri memkvidreobisagan Tavis dasaRwevad arsebiT nabijs warmoadgenda biznesis ganTavisufleba mTavrobis araformaluri wnexisagan.
samwuxarod, mTavrobis mier gadadgmul am optimistur nabijebs Semdgomi ganviTareba ar mohyolia. magaliTad, imis nacvlad, rom saministroebs xsenebuli `saqarTvelo 2020is~ safuZvelze SeemuSavebinaT samoqmedo gegmebi (rasac mTavrobis gadawyvetileba iTvaliswinebda), premierministrma saerTod daiviwya es kompleqsuri dokumenti da is primitiuli `mTavrobis 4punqtiani gegmiT~ Caanacvla, romlis ganxorcielebac qveyanas momxmarebluri ekonomikis maxinj models ar da ver Seucvlis.
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ekonomikuri primitivizmis naTeli magaliTebia ekonomikis saministros Senobis privatizacia, saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis winaaRmdeg instituciuri xasiaTis brZola sakadro problemis arsebobis gamo, gauazrebeli da SeuTanxmebeli gancxadebebiT savaluto bazarze ryevebis xelSewyoba da a.S.
qarTuli ekonomikuri primitivizmis safuZveli ekonomikuri mecnierebis, Tanamedrove geopolitikisa da geoekonomikis sayovelTaod aRiarebuli codnis uaryofaSi, araprofesionalizmSi unda veZeboT. araprofesionalizmia agreTve mizezi im gadawyvetilebebis miRebis (strategiluli obieqtebis gasxviseba) da gatarebisa (gazis tranzitis safasuris Semcireba), romlebic qveynis ekonomikur usafrTxoebas ukavSirdeba.
am viTarebaSi gansakuTrebuli roli ekisreba, erTi mxriv, saerTaSoriso safinanso institutebs, xolo meore mxriv _ samoqalaqo sazogadoebas. maTi gaaqtiureba aris praqtikulad erTaderTi meqanizmi, riTac SesaZlebeli iqneba metnaklebad qmediTi zewola mTavrobaSi ekonomikuri primitivizmis aRmosafxvrelad da arakompetenturi kadrebis Casanacvleblad.
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