virginia economic developers association · 2018-04-04 · 50-year marginal cumulative real estate...

Virginia Economic Developers Association

The Importance of Utility & Infrastructure Investment for Economic Development

DCM Dave Hansen20 March 2015

Today Tomorrow / 2040 and Beyond

2

Virginia Beach’s VISION 2040

Strategic Growth Areas

Newtown SGA

Pembroke SGA

Laskin Gateway

Resort SGA – North End

Private Development

Incentivizing Public Investment

Motivated Contractor

Good Plans and Specs

Quality Work

$80M Private and $40M Public Investment

Virginia Beach Arena

5 Years Before the Receipt of an Unsolicited Proposal for an Arena

VB PU Decided to Create Sanitary Sewer Capacity for the Growth and Revitalization of

the Resort SGA

Last Year Completed Construction of a new Sanitary Sewer Pump Station Allowing the

Development of the 19th Street Corridor

Light Rail Transit ExtensionConnecting the City Centers of

Virginia Beach and Norfolk

14

Transit Oriented Development

Newtown Road Station

16

Newtown(Existing)

Residentialunits

Officesf

Commercialsf

Hotel rooms

Industrialsf

Optimistic 484 28,256 20,542 145 (328,030)

Average 323 18,837 13,695 97 (218,687)

Modest 161 9,419 6,847 48 (109,343)

Witchduck Road Station

17

Witchduck Residentialunits

Officesf

Commercialsf

Hotel rooms

Industrialsf

Optimistic 1,953 1,279,535 879,318 735 -659,030

Average 1,302 853,023 586,212 490 -439,353

Modest 651 426,512 293,106 245 -219,677

Pembroke Multimodal Station Master Plan Concepts Kellam Road Area

18

TodayTomorrow

Kellam Residentialunits

Officesf

Commercialsf

Hotel rooms

Industrialsf

Optimistic 2,144 1,366,833 750,052 -98 -270,666

Average 1,430 911,222 500,035 -66 -180,444

Modest 715 455,611 250,017 -33 -90,222

Pembroke Multimodal Station Master Plan Concepts Constitution Drive

19

TodayTomorrow

Constitution Residentialunits

Officesf

Commercialsf

Hotel rooms

Industrialsf

Optimistic 3,093 2,214,155 825,570 1,336 -54,246

Average 2,062 1,476,104 550,380 891 -36,164

Modest 1,031 738,052 275,190 445 -18,082

TOD Land Use Changes Table(Removes Overlap)(50 year build out)

Residential Office Commercial Hotels Industrial

Stations and Redevelopment Scenarios (units) (sf) (sf) (rooms) (sf)

Modest

Newtown (existing station) 161 9,419 6,847 48 (109,343)

Witchduck-Kellam-Constitution 2,395 1,620,174 818,313 683 (327,981)

Marginal Redevelopment 2,556 1,629,593 825,160 731 (437,324)

Average

Newtown (existing station) 323 18,837 13,695 97 (218,687)

Witchduck-Kellam-Constitution 4,790 3,240,349 1,636,627 1,366 (655,961)

Marginal Redevelopment 5,113 3,259,186 1,650,322 1,463 (874,648)

Optimistic

Newtown (existing station) 484 28,256 20,542 145 (328,030)

Witchduck-Kellam-Constitution 7,184 4,860,523 2,454,940 2,048 (983,942)

Marginal Redevelopment 7,668 4,888,779 2,475,482 2,193 (1,311,972)

TOD Station Physical Land Usage Changes

Modest = 25% of SGA TOD build

out

Average = 50% of SGA TOD build

out

Optimistic = 75%of SGA TOD build

out

Average AnnualTaxes Generated for:

Newtown, Witchduck, Kellam &

Constitution

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Nominal PV (5.5%) Nominal PV (5.5%) Nominal PV (5.5%)

10 Year

Modest 2.02$ 1.41$ 1.94$ 1.36$ 1.88$ 1.32$

Average 4.35 3.03 4.19 2.92 4.07 2.85

Optimistic 6.68 4.64 6.44 4.49 6.26 4.38

20 Year

Modest 5.74 2.46 4.81 2.06 4.18 1.79

Average 12.60 5.40 10.75 4.60 9.48 4.05

Optimistic 19.46 8.34 16.69 7.14 14.79 6.32

30 Year

Modest 9.42 2.40 7.59 1.93 6.33 1.61

Average 21.08 5.36 17.41 4.42 14.88 3.78

Optimistic 32.73 8.32 27.23 6.91 23.44 5.95

40 Year

Modest 12.98 1.94 10.24 1.53 8.33 1.25

Average 29.54 4.42 24.06 3.60 20.26 3.03

Optimistic 46.11 6.89 37.89 5.66 32.18 4.81

50 Year

Modest 16.70 1.47 12.99 1.14 10.41 0.91

Average 38.58 3.38 31.15 2.73 26.00 2.28

Optimistic 60.45 5.30 49.31 4.32 41.58 3.65

Class AA Class A Class B

Marginal Average Real Estate Taxes (millions)

Quarter and Half Mile Station Outlook

50-Year Marginal Annual Real Estate Tax Table

10.75

50-Year Marginal Cumulative Real Estate Tax Table

22

Nominal PV (5.5%) Nominal PV (5.5%) Nominal PV (5.5%)

10 Year

Modest 20.2$ 14.1$ 19.4$ 13.6$ 18.8$ 13.2$

Average 43.5 30.3 41.9 29.2 40.7 28.5

Optimistic 66.8 46.4 64.4 44.9 62.6 43.8

20 Year

Modest 77.6 38.7 67.5 34.2 60.6 31.1

Average 169.5 84.3 149.4 75.2 135.5 69.1

Optimistic 261.4 129.8 231.2 116.3 210.5 107.0

30 Year

Modest 171.8 62.7 143.4 53.5 123.8 47.2

Average 380.3 137.8 323.5 119.5 284.4 106.8

Optimistic 588.7 213.0 503.6 185.5 444.9 166.5

40 Year

Modest 301.5 82.1 245.7 68.8 207.2 59.6

Average 675.7 182.0 564.1 155.4 487.0 137.1

Optimistic 1,049.8 282.0 882.5 242.1 766.7 214.6

50 Year

Modest 468.5 96.7 375.6 80.2 311.3 68.8

Average 1,061.5 215.9 875.6 182.8 746.9 159.9

Optimistic 1,654.4 335.0 1,375.7 285.3 1,182.6 251.0

Marginal Cumulative Real Estate Taxes (millions)

Quarter and Half Mile Station Outlook

Class AA Class A Class B

149.4

Average CumulativeTaxes Generated for:

Newtown, Witchduck, Kellam &

Constitution

www.vbgov.com/lightrail

http://www.vbgov.com/government/departments/planning/TransPlanning/Virginia-Beach-Light-Rail-Extension/Pages/default.aspx