using critical parameter management to manage, analyze & report technical product performance
Post on 14-Jun-2015
1.062 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1
© 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Using Critical Parameter Management to Using Critical Parameter Management to Manage, Analyze & Report Technical Manage, Analyze & Report Technical Product PerformanceProduct Performance
Neal Mackertich & Peter KrausNeal Mackertich & Peter Kraus
Raytheon CompanyRaytheon Company
2 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
World-Class Systems DFSS World-Class Systems DFSS
Voice of the Customer modeling and analysis an part of the Requirements Voice of the Customer modeling and analysis an part of the Requirements analysis processanalysis process
Up-front Architectural trade space evaluation (vs. validation)Up-front Architectural trade space evaluation (vs. validation)
Statistical modeling & optimization of the performance / cost system Statistical modeling & optimization of the performance / cost system design trade spacedesign trade space
› Utilizing a mathematically linked, collaborative environment for managing and performing Systems design TPM sensitivity analysis
› With CAIV strategically deployed up-front as standard program practice for product lifecycle cost management
Enabled decision-making through predictive defect modelingEnabled decision-making through predictive defect modeling
Stochastically modeled System Integration, Verification & ValidationStochastically modeled System Integration, Verification & Validation
3 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
What is Critical Parameter Management?What is Critical Parameter Management?
A disciplined methodology for managing, analyzing, A disciplined methodology for managing, analyzing, and reporting technical product performance.and reporting technical product performance.
A process for mathematically linking system A process for mathematically linking system parameters for sensitivity analysis and optimization parameters for sensitivity analysis and optimization of critical performance threads.of critical performance threads.
A strategic tool for improving product development A strategic tool for improving product development by unifying and integrating systems, software, by unifying and integrating systems, software, design and manufacturing activities.design and manufacturing activities.
CPM = TPMs + Other parameters critical to functionality, cost, schedule or customer
4 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Case for CPM at Raytheon IDSCase for CPM at Raytheon IDS
Raytheon as a Joint Battlespace IntegratorRaytheon as a Joint Battlespace Integrator
Design, management, and performance analysis are becoming increasingly complex and distributed tasks
Mission AssuranceMission Assurance
Increasing our ability to deliver high-performing, affordable systems
Re-use of technical knowledge, analysis tools, and intellectual capitalRe-use of technical knowledge, analysis tools, and intellectual capital
Accelerates the development of future technical leadsAccelerates the development of future technical leads
There are Big $$$ in the Design Performance – Cost Trade SpaceThere are Big $$$ in the Design Performance – Cost Trade Space
5 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Performance AnalysisPerformance Analysis
CPM Statistically Flow-Up Design, Supplier and Manufacturing Capabilities Exposing Performance Risks and Opportunities
X’s
Y’s
Y’sRisk
Opportunity
“The System Can….”
6 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Whitepaper Management and Task DelegationWhitepaper Management and Task Delegation
Engineering Documents and Whitepaper Analyses
Attach Engineering Documents, Models, and Whitepaper Analysis.
Connect people to analyses, requirements, and performance measures.
7 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
CPM Primary Program BenefitsCPM Primary Program Benefits
Facilitate AnalysisFacilitate Analysis Statistical modeling & optimization of the performance – cost trade space Real-time System-level sensitivity analysis Connects analyses between system, subsystem and component levels
Improve CollaborationImprove Collaboration Shares technical analysis and knowledge Links ownership to parameters Mathematically connects Program teams and parameters to understand
requirement flow-down Captures and leverages invested intellectual capital for future business
reuse
Streamline ReportingStreamline Reporting
TPM design margins are statistically tracked over product lifecycle Automated, real-time TPM data gathering / report generation Reconciliation of requirement allocation and engineering design capability
8 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
DFSS Statistical Requirements AnalysisDFSS Statistical Requirements Analysis
A
B
C
D
E
Y
Y = f (A, B, C, D, E, F,...,M)0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
180
187
194
201
208
215
222
229
236
243
250
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
17
17.6
18.2
18.8
19.4 20
20.6
21.2
21.8
22.4 23
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
15
15.8
16.6
17.4
18.2 19
19.8
20.6
21.4
22.2 23
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
15
16.5 18
19.5 21
22.5 24
25.5 27
28.5 30
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
15
16.5 18
19.5 21
22.5 24
25.5 27
28.5 30
Response
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
15
16.5 18
19.5 21
22.5 24
25.5 27
28.5 30
Design Variables
Allocation/Flow Down
9 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Statistical Performance Analysis Results In…Statistical Performance Analysis Results In…
A prediction of the A prediction of the Response Statistical Response Statistical PropertiesProperties
A prediction of the A prediction of the Probability of Non-Probability of Non-ComplianceCompliance
An assessment of the An assessment of the Contribution of Parameter Contribution of Parameter VariationVariation to Response to Response Performance and CostPerformance and Cost
A
B
C
D
E
Y
f (A, B, C, D, …)
Parameters
Response
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
Function
G-Sys. Losses -.45
A-Pavg .35
D-Ant. Eff, .35
F-Integ. Eff. .34
J-Rec. BW -.34
B-Ant. Gain .29
H-Tgt RCS .23
C-Ant. Aperture .21
K-Pulse Width -.19
M-Rec. Out SNR -.15
I-Noise Figure -.12
L-Rep. Freq. -.03
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
Measured by Rank Correlation
Certainty is 95.12% from 4.00E+1 to 5.30E+1
.000
.007
.014
.020
.027
0
33.75
67.5
101.2
135
3.75E+1 4.25E+1 4.75E+1 5.25E+1 5.75E+1
Prob(LL<Y<UL)
.000
.007
.014
.020
.027
3.75E+1 4.25E+1 4.75E+1 5.25E+1 5.75E+1
PDF(Y)
Results from Crystal Ball Monte Carlo SW
10 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Radar Subassembly CPM Case StudyRadar Subassembly CPM Case Study
Phased Array RadarPhased Array Radar
High Volume SubassemblyHigh Volume Subassembly
Mechanical Dimensions Critical to Electrical PerformanceMechanical Dimensions Critical to Electrical Performance
11 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
Attain Robust Design performance at minimum production Attain Robust Design performance at minimum production cost.cost.
Reduce current unit production cost by 30%.Reduce current unit production cost by 30%.
Aggressively strive for additional cost savings.Aggressively strive for additional cost savings.
Become a documented, successful design phase example Become a documented, successful design phase example for others to follow.for others to follow.
12 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Radar Subassembly Tree StructureRadar Subassembly Tree Structure
13 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Design InterfaceDesign Interface
14 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
03.03
;3
00108.006389.0
USLLSLMin C
pk
5004003002001000
0.068
0.067
0.066
0.065
0.064
0.063
0.062
0.061
0.060
sn
GW
Dim B
020406080
100
BinsF
req Dim B
USL(0.064)
LSL(0.062)
Data set with outliers removed Histogram of dimension Dim B relative to Specifications
Use Cpk as a metric of ProcessCapability. Note: Six Sigma qualitylevel = Cpk >1.5.
Dimensional Capability AnalysisDimensional Capability Analysis
15 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
X ScorecardX Scorecard
Project Name: Date:
Component CTF (X)Spec Owner UnitsCode LSL Nominal USL Mean Std. Dev. Cp Cpk Sample Size
D1 R admin 0.4250 0.4270 0.4290 0.4270 0.0020 0.3333 0.3333 400D10 R admin 0.4020 0.4030 0.4040 0.4033 0.0020 0.1667 0.1167 400D2 R admin 0.4250 0.4270 0.4290 0.4264 0.0023 0.2899 0.2029 400D3 R admin 0.4020 0.4030 0.4040 0.4009 0.0007 0.4762 -0.5238 400D4 R admin 0.0575 0.0595 0.0615 0.0587 0.0012 0.5556 0.3194 400D5 R admin NA 0.0000 0.0010 0.0012 0.0031 NA -0.0162 400D6 R admin 0.4020 0.4030 0.4040 0.4009 0.0007 0.4762 -0.5238 400D7 R admin 0.4260 0.4275 0.4290 0.4271 0.0015 0.3333 0.2444 400D8 R admin 0.4260 0.4275 0.4290 0.4265 0.0008 0.6250 0.2083 400D9 R admin 0.0620 0.0630 0.0640 0.0639 0.0010 0.3333 0.0367 400
System Level DFSS - Critcial Parameter Management (System Total Component Requirement & X Score Card)
Radiator CPM Example 8/16/2006
Design Specification Validation Test Data
16 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Determined Manufacturing Process Capabilities of existing design dimensions to be Cpk<0.34
Cpk
-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.2
00.20.40.60.8
1
1.21.41.6
Dim1 Dim2 Dim3 Dim4 Dim5 Dim6 Dim7 Dim8 Dim9 Dim10
Dimension
Acceptable
Good
Six Sigma
17 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
04.23
109.0531.0
C
pk
LSLUse Cpk metric to establish relativeelectrical performance.
Histogram of electrical output relative to specification
Response Performance Capability AnalysisResponse Performance Capability Analysis
Electrical Performance
0
20
40
60
80
Nu
mb
er
of
Ob
se
rva
tio
ns
LSL
18 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Established Electrical Response Performance capabilities to be Cpk> 1.66
Electrical Performance Capabilities
Max Spec Cpk
-5.84 -3.63 0.35 2.10-5.84 -3.20 0.32 2.69-5.89 -3.03 0.35 2.71-5.95 -2.97 0.41 2.50-6.00 -2.92 0.42 2.43-6.11 -3.01 0.45 2.26-6.22 -3.24 0.52 1.90-6.27 -3.38 0.56 1.73-6.38 -3.36 0.61 1.66-6.44 -3.13 0.62 1.79-6.49 -2.87 0.59 2.04-6.49 -2.48 0.49 2.71-6.49 -2.27 0.45 3.12-6.49 -2.09 0.42 3.51-6.44 -2.01 0.40 3.67-6.38 -2.00 0.39 3.69-6.27 -2.02 0.39 3.56-6.17 -2.05 0.41 3.33-6.00 -2.24 0.42 2.96-5.84 -2.37 0.44 2.58-5.68 -2.69 0.48 2.06
19 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Radar Subassembly Trade Study AnalysisRadar Subassembly Trade Study Analysis
DOE, Regression and Statistical tests of significance identified only DOE, Regression and Statistical tests of significance identified only one design feature to statistically impact performance.one design feature to statistically impact performance.
Utilized gained process capability knowledge and a statistical Utilized gained process capability knowledge and a statistical understanding of the impact of assigned tolerances on performance understanding of the impact of assigned tolerances on performance to trade low-margin mechanical design tolerance for cost to trade low-margin mechanical design tolerance for cost realization opportunities.realization opportunities.
Through a detailed understanding of what drives manufacturing Through a detailed understanding of what drives manufacturing costs, the team was then able to statistically reallocate tolerances to costs, the team was then able to statistically reallocate tolerances to minimize unit production costs.minimize unit production costs.
20 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Attained Six Sigma plus electrical design performance.Attained Six Sigma plus electrical design performance.
Reduced unit production costs by 58%.Reduced unit production costs by 58%.
Achieved cost savings of >$5MAchieved cost savings of >$5M
Achieved follow-on contract cost reductions >$30MAchieved follow-on contract cost reductions >$30M
Radar Subassembly CPM Case StudyRadar Subassembly CPM Case StudyProject ResultsProject Results
21 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Enabling a Collaborative Design EnvironmentEnabling a Collaborative Design Environment
Engineering whitepapers, memos, models, and analyses attach Engineering whitepapers, memos, models, and analyses attach directly to parametersdirectly to parameters
Connect people to analyses, requirements, performance Connect people to analyses, requirements, performance measures, and design trade-spacemeasures, and design trade-space
Serves as real-time “Global Positioning System” for program Serves as real-time “Global Positioning System” for program performance and responsibilityperformance and responsibility
22 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Long Term Collaborative Product Line BenefitsLong Term Collaborative Product Line Benefits
Original Design: Pave Paws
Generation 3: SRP
Platform “A”: Cobra Judy Replacement
Platform “B”: X-Band Radar
Generation 2: UEWR
Product Adaptation: DREX Technology
23 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Traditional TPM Stoplight ReportTraditional TPM Stoplight Report
TPM Number Description Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05CDR
Jan '06TPM-XFE-001 Single Pulse Sensitivity G G G G G GTPM-XFE-002 Search Sensitivity G G G G G GTPM-XFE-003 Range Accuracy G G G G G GTPM-XFE-004 Angle Accuracy G G G G G GTPM-XFE-005 RCS Accuracy G G G G G GTPM-XFE-006 Phase Stability Y Y Y Y Y GTPM-XFE-007 Polarization Isolation G G G G G GTPM-XFE-008 Ellipticity Y Y Y Y Y GTPM-XFE-009 Range Sidelobe Level G G G G G GTPM-XFE-010 Range Resolution G G G G G GTPM-XFE-011 2-Way Notch Depth (combined) Y G G G G GTPM-XFE-012 Receive Pattern Sidelobe Level Y G G G G GTPM-XFE-013 Weight G G G G G G
G Meets Requirement with MarginY Meets Requirement with No MarginR Does Not Meet Requirement
Previous TPM Reporting/ Tracking method is vague and ambiguous with respect to the design margin for each metric. TPM report was only
tracked and managed on a monthly basis for the tracking book.
24 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
Statistical TPM Management & ReportingStatistical TPM Management & Reporting
s
LSLx
s
xUSLCpk
*3,
*3min
Statistically track design capability and requirement by establishing upper and lower limits
Monitor design capability and requirement convergence over product lifecycle:
- IPDR, PDR, CDR etc.
-Design, Manufacturing, Integration, Test
Probability of Non-Compliance
Cp and Cpk
s
LSLUSLCp
6
25 © 2006, Raytheon Co., All Rights Reserved
New Automated TPM Reporting FormatNew Automated TPM Reporting Format
Meaningful stoplights based on statistical
sensitivity
Compares requirement allocation vs. current
design capability
Includes sensitivity and statistical
information
Captures complete product lifecycle: requirements, design, manufacturing, testing,
validation, etc. (other columns not shown)
TPM design margins are statistically tracked real-time
top related