u.s.epa’s clean power plan€¦ · august 3, 2015, epa signed for publication: ... ‐final rule...

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U.S.EPA’sCleanPowerPlan

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Presenter• KenSnell,J.D.,P.E.

S&L’sCleanPowerPlanPanel• AndrewCarstens,P.E.• MattThibodeau,P.E.• MarkLemmons,P.E.• DaveHelm,P.E.

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Agenda:• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan

• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals

• Implementation• CompliancePlanning• Questions/Answers

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• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals

• Implementation

• CompliancePlanning

• Questions/Answers/PanelDiscussion

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August3,2015,EPAsignedforpublication:

• StandardsofPerformanceforGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromNew,Modified,andReconstructedStationarySources:ElectricUtilityGeneratingUnitsFinalRule§111(b)

• CarbonPollutionEmissionGuidelinesforExistingStationarySources:ElectricUtilityGeneratingUnits‐ FinalRule§111(d)

• CarbonPollutionEmissionGuidelinesforExistingStationarySources:ElectricUtilityGeneratingUnits‐ FinalRule§111(d)– the“CleanPowerPlan”

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CleanPowerPlan Appliesto:

Existingfossilfuel‐firedsteamelectricgeneratingunits(EGUs)(coal,oil,andgas‐firedboilers);

IGCCUnits; NaturalGasCombined‐Cycle(NGCC)andCombined‐HeatandPower(CHP)Units

…capableofselling>25MWtoautilitypowerdistributionsystemandwasinoperationorhadcommencedconstructionasofJanuary8,2014.

ANewSourcePerformanceStandardforExistingUnits

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CleanPowerPlan– AffectedUnits

Source:U.S.EPA

Approximately:

1,004Coal‐firedEGUs

1,507NGCCUnits425Oil/GasEGUs

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CleanPowerPlan

“AffectedUnits”donotinclude: Units<25MW Simple‐cyclecombustionturbines Non‐fossilfuelfiredgeneratingunits Existingrenewableenergygeneratingunits Existingnucleargeneratingunits NewUnitsthataresubjecttothe§111(b)NewSourcePerformanceStandardsforGreenhouseGasEmissions

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CleanPowerPlan

Verysimply,theCPPappliesCO2 performancestandardstoaffectedEGUsthatmustbeachievedby2030:

EGU Subcategory Final Ratelb CO2/MWh‐net

Fossil Steam EGU or IGCC 1,305

NGCC 771

2012 Baseline Datalb CO2/MWh‐net

%Reduction

2,204 41%

894 16%

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CleanPowerPlanPerformanceStandardsarebasedonEPA’sassessmentofBestSystemofEmissionReduction(BSER):

Building Block 1Heat Rate improvement at existing coal‐fired power plants

Building Block 2Shifting electricity generation from existing coal‐fired power plants 

to existing NGCC units

Building Block 3Shifting electricity generation from existing coal‐fired power plants 

and existing NGCC units to NEW zero‐CO2 emitting resources

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BSERDetermination:

CleanPowerPlan

CoalCO2 –BB1 OGFSCO2 ∆NGCCCO2FSMWh REMWh ∆NGCCMWh

FSGoal lb/MWh

NGCCGoal lb/MWh NGCCCO2

NGCCMWh REMWh

‐ RECO2 ‐ ∆NGCCCO2BaselineFSMWh

NGCCCO2 ‐ RECO2NGCCBaselineMWh

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BSERDetermination:

BuildingBlock1:ImprovedHeatRate Appliedtoexistingcoal‐firedEGUs BasedonHeatRateImprovementsof:

4.3%inEasternInterconnect 2.1%inWesternInterconnect 2.3%inTexas

ReducedbaselineCO2 emissionratefrom2,204lb/MWhto2,109lb/MWh(EasternInterconnect)

ReducedtotalbaselineCO2 emissionsbyapproximately66,105,000tons/year(2.9%)

CleanPowerPlan

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BSERDetermination:BuildingBlock3:NewREGeneration SubstitutedexistingFSandNGCCgenerationwithnewRE

generation.

NewREGenerationwascalculatedby: Applying2010‐2014capacityincreases(MW)going

forwardthrough2030andapplying“representative”capacityfactors

EPAconcludedthat: REgenerationwillincreaseby: 28,796,222MWh/year(2013– 2023)and 62,796,222MWh/year(2024– 2030)

CleanPowerPlan

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CleanPowerPlan

CoalCO2 –BB1 OGFSCO2

FSMWh REMWhFSGoal lb/MWh

NGCCGoal lb/MWh NGCCCO2

NGCCMWh REMWh

‐ RECO2BaselineFSMWh

NGCCCO2 ‐ RECO2NGCCBaselineMWh

BSERDetermination:BuildingBlock3:NewREGeneration

ReducedtotalbaselineCO2 emissionsbyapproximately530,889,000tons/year(24%)

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CleanPowerPlan

CoalCO2 –BB1 OGFSCO2

FSMWh REMWhFSGoal lb/MWh

BSERDetermination:BuildingBlock2:IncrementalNGCC(“∆NCGG”)

SubstitutedexistingFSgenerationwith∆NGCCgeneration ∆NGCCGeneration

NGCCMWh@75%CF‐ BaselineNGCCMWh post‐BB3

ReducedtotalbaselineCO2 emissionsbyapproximately123,617,000tons/year(8.1%)

∆NGCCMWh

∆NGCCCO2BaselineFSMWh

‐ RECO2 ‐ ∆NGCCCO2

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BSERDetermination:

BuildingBlock1wasappliedtoallcoal‐firedgeneratingunitsbeginningin2022

BuildingBlock2wasappliedbeginningin2022 BuildingBlock3wasphasedinstartingin2022with

incrementalincreasesinRenewableEnergygenerationthrough2030

Basedonthisapproach,thesubcategoryspecificperformancestandardsbecomeincreasinglymorestringentbeginningin2022

CleanPowerPlan

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031

Rat

e (lb

CO

2/M

Wh)

Year

Fossil Steam NGCC

1,741lb/MWh

1,305lb/MWh

898lb/MWh771lb/MWh

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BSER Determination:

CleanPowerPlan

BuildingBlock1:2.9%reductionintotalCO2 emissions

BuildingBlock3:24%reductionintotalCO2 emission

BuildingBlock2:8.1%reductionintotalCO2 emissions

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BSERDetermination:

CleanPowerPlan

BaselineCO2 2,265,735,254tons

ReductionsfromBaseline:

BuildingBlock1:66,105,000

BuildingBlock2:123,617,000

BuildingBlock3:530,889,000

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CleanPowerPlan

RenewableEnergywillplayasignificantruleineitherarate‐basedormass‐basedprogram:

Source:U.S.EPA

• Baseline Generation vs. Projected 2030 Generation

• Assumes no increase in total generation 2012 to 2030

• Based on EPA’s BSER Plan• Shows emphasis on RE

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CleanPowerPlan

EmissionPerformanceStandards

XState‐SpecificBaseline

GenerationMix

State‐SpecificRateBasedGoals

=State‐SpecificMassBased

Goals

Source:U.S.EPA

CleanPowerPlanInadditiontothesubcategoryspecificperformancestandards,theCleanPowerPlanalsoincludesstate‐specificemissionrategoals:

• Rate‐basedgoal(lb/MWh)• Mass‐basedgoal(totaltonsofCO2)

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CleanPowerPlan

Rate‐BasedGoals EPAappliedthesubcategory‐specificemissionratestoeachstates’baselinegenerationlevels.

Example:ArkansasFSBaseline =32,154,992MWhNGCCBaseline =15,615,185ArkansasGenerationMix:67%FSand33%NGCC

2022Rate‐BasedGoal:(1,741lb/MWhx0.67)+(898lb/MWhx0.33)=1,465lb/MWh

2030Rate‐BasedGoal:(1,305lb/MWhx0.67)+(771lb/MWhx0.33)=1,131lb/MWh

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CleanPowerPlan

State-Specific Rate-Based Goals:

FunctionoftheState’suniquebaseline

generationmix

InterimCO2 Rate‐BasedGoal

FinalRate‐BasedGoals

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CleanPowerPlan

Rate-Based Goals – Eastern States (group 1):

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CleanPowerPlan

Mass‐BasedGoals EPAappliedthesubcategory‐specificratestoeachstates’

baselinegenerationlevels;and

addedbackaportionofBuildingBlock3thatwasnotneededforcomplianceintheWestern&Texasinterconnections.

(FSBaseline xFSRate)+(NGCCBaseline xNGCCRate)+BB3Adj

BaselineMassEmissions:47,806,056tons1st InterimPeriodMass‐BasedGoal:35,189,232tonsFinalMass‐BasedGoal:30,170,750tons

Example:Arkansas

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CleanPowerPlan

Mass-Based Goals – Eastern States (group 1):

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• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals

• Implementation

• CompliancePlanning

• Questions/Answers/PanelDiscussion

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Implementation

1. TheCleanPowerPlanwillbeimplementedthroughStateImplementationPlans(SIPs)

2. SIPsmust:“IncludeemissionstandardsforeachaffectedEGUtoensurethatthepowerplants– eitherindividually,together,orincombinationwithothermeasures– achievetheinterimCO2emissionperformanceratesovertheperiodof2022– 2029andthefinalCO2 performancerates,rate‐basedgoals,ormass‐basedgoalsby2030.”

CleanPowerPlan

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Implementation– Timeline

CleanPowerPlan

Fall2015 August3:EPASignedCleanPowerPlanforPublication

Sept.62016

StatesmakeinitialSIPsubmittalwithextensionrequestorsubmitFinalPlan

Sept.62018

StateswithanextensionsubmitFinalPlanFIPforstatesthatfailtosubmitanapprovableplan

Jan.12022 FirstCompliancePeriodbegins

Jan.12030 FinalCO2 EmissionGoals

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Implementation– ProposedFIP

August3,2015,EPAalsosignedforpublication:

FederalPlanRequirementsforGreenhouseGasEmissionsfromElectricUtilityGeneratingUnitsConstructedonor

BeforeJanuary8,2014:ModelTradingRule

CleanPowerPlan

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Implementation– ProposedFIP

EPA’sproposedFIPincludestwoalternativecomplianceprogramsbasedonemissionstrading:

CleanPowerPlan

Rate‐basedtradingprogram• AffectedEGUspurchaseemissionreductioncredits(ERCs)fromunitsthatemitbelowaspecifiedemissionrate.

Mass‐basedtradingprogram• AffectedEGUscanpurchaseemissionallowances(tons)fromunitsthatemitbelowtheirallowanceallocation.

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ImplementationEPA’sProposedRate‐BasedTrading

CleanPowerPlan

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ProposedRate‐BasedProgram:

CleanPowerPlan

lbCO2MWh

ReduceCO2MWh

lbCO2MWh

State‐SpecificRate‐BasedGoal

ERCs

ExistingunitsarerequiredtoreduceCO2emissionsorpurchaseERCsfromunitsthatemitbelowaspecifiedemissionrate.

ERCswouldbeissuedfor:

Measuresthatprovidesubstitutegeneration,and

Measuresthatavoidtheneedforgeneration.

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ProposedRate‐BasedProgram:

PotentialmeasurestoreduceCO2 Emissions (lb/MWh):

HeatRateImprovements NaturalGasCo‐firing; NaturalGasConversion QualifiedBiomassCo‐firing PartialCarbonCapture CarbonCapture&Sequestration…

CleanPowerPlan

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MeasurestoReduceCO2 Emissions(lb/MWh)• HeatRateImprovements:

Facility Coal1 Coal2 TotalCapacity(MW) 580 720 1,300Generation(MWh) 3,971,000 4,366,500 8,157,500

CO2 Emissions(tons) 4,150,950 4,944,100 9,095,050

CO2 Rate(lb/MWh) 2,190 2,265 2,2302,091 2,163 2,130

3,964,300 4,722,500 8,686,800

Assume4.5%heatrateimprovement

408,250ton/yearreductioninCO2 emissions.

ProposedRate‐BasedProgram

1st InterimStateGoal=1,411lb/MWhFinalStateGoal=1,130lb/MWh

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MeasurestoReduceCO2 Emissions(lb/MWh)• NaturalGasConversion:

Facility Unit1 Unit2 TotalCapacity(MW) 580 720 1,300Generation(MWh) 3,971,000 4,366,500 8,157,500

CO2 Emissions(tons) 3,964,300 4,722,500 8,686,800

CO2 Rate(lb/MWh) 2,091 2,163 2,1301,270 2,163 1,748

Unit1:100%NGConversion

2,407,200 4,722,500 7,129,700

2,561,605ton/yearreductioninCO2 emissions(frombaseline).

ProposedRate‐BasedProgram

1st InterimStateGoal=1,411lb/MWhFinalStateGoal=1,130lb/MWh

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Measuresthatprovidesubstitutegeneration:

IncrementalNGCCGeneration• Increasedgeneration(MWh)fromexistingNGCCunitsabove2012baseline(“GasShift”)

NewREgeneration• Wind,solar,geothermal,hydropower,biomass,waveandtidalpower

ProposedRate‐BasedProgram

NewNuclearGeneration ExistingREornuclearuprates(addedafter2012) CombinedHeat&PowerProjects InternationalREimports

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EmissionReductionCredits Gas‐ShiftERCs(GS‐ERCs)

• CreditedtoexistingNGCCUnits• CalculatedtorepresentCO2 emissionreductionsfromincrementalNGCCgeneration.

RenewableEnergyERCs(RE‐ERCs)• CreditedtoeligibleRenewableEnergyresources

ProposedRate‐BasedProgram

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Gas‐ShiftERCs(GS‐ERCs)

GS‐ERC NGCCMWh XIncrementalGenerationFactor

GS‐ERCEmissionFactor

X

IncrementalGenerationFactor

BaselineNGCCMWh

NGCCMWh @75%CF

0.22infirstcomplianceperiod

GS‐ERCEmissionFactor

NGCCRate

FSStandard1‐ approximately

0.45

ProposedRate‐BasedProgram

E.g.,1,000,000MWhx0.22x0.45=99,000ERCs

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ProposedRate‐BasedProgram

GS‐ERC=2,000,000x0.22x0.45=198,000allowances NewRate=Emissions/MWh+ERC

CO2 Emissions=RemainingCoalxBaselineRate

Rate‐BasedExample:Unit1 Unit2 Total

BaselineGeneration(MWh) 3,791,000 4,366,500 8,157,500

BaselineEmissions(tons) 3,964,157 4,721,616 8,685,733

BaselineRate(lb/MWh) 2,091 2,163 2,130

∆NGCCGeneration(MWh)

RemainingCoal(MWh)

CO2 Emissions(tons)

GS‐ERCs(tons)

NewRate(lb/MWh)

1,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000

2,791,000 3,366,500 6,167,5002,918,481 3,640,288 6,558,770

2,020 2,101 2,060

99,000 99,000 198,000

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RenewableEnergyERCs(RE‐ERCs)• RE‐ERCswillbecreditedtoeligibleREresources• EligibleREresourcesincludenewwind,solar,geothermal,hydropower,biomass,waveandtidalpower…

• 1ERC/zeroCO2‐emittingMWh

ProposedRate‐BasedProgram

RE‐ERCs 6,187,000MWh

6,558,770tons

6,167,500MWh 198,000GS‐ERCs2,060lb/MWh

Example:

6,167,500MWh 198,000GS‐ERCs RE‐ERCs1,045lb/MWh

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ImplementationEPA’sProposedMass‐BasedTrading

CleanPowerPlan

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ProposedFIPMass‐BasedProgram:

CleanPowerPlan

1Allowance

TonCO2

State‐SpecificMassBasedGoal

(tons)

Set‐AsideAllowancesfor:

• NewRE• ∆NGCC• CEIP

IssueRemainingAllowancestoAffectedEGUs

ReduceCO2 PurchaseAdditionalAllowances

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RenewableEnergy(RE)Set‐Aside: Reserveapercentageofeachstates’allowancesinaREset‐aside

EPA proposed the following specific RE measures for eligibility: on-shore wind, solar, geothermal power, and hydropower

Newnuclearunitsandcapacityupratesatexitingnuclearunitsarenotproposedtobeeligibletoreceiveset‐asideallowances.

ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

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RenewableEnergy(RE)Set‐Aside:

OnlyREmeasuresinstalled,orcapacityincreases,after2012areeligibleforset‐asideallowances.

EPAproposed5%ofeachstates’allowanceswillbereservedfortheREset‐aside.

ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

EPAproposedtoissueREset‐asideallowancesbasedonprojectedgeneration(MWh)fromeligibleREcapacity.

EPArequestedcommentoninclusionofotherREmeasures

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Output‐BasedSet‐Aside(∆NGCCSet‐Aside):

Set‐asideforincreasedgenerationfromexistingNGCCUnits Set‐asidecalculatedforeachstateas:

State’sNGCCcapacity(MW)x10%CapacityFactor AllowanceswillbeallocatedtoexitingNGCCunitsbasedontheirlevelofelectricitygenerationinthepreviouscomplianceperiod

Allocationratewillbecalculatedas:NGCCCapacity (MW)x(CF– 0.5)x8,760x1,030/2,000

ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

CapacityFactorabove50%

§111(b)NSPS(lb/MWh)

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Mass‐BasedExample(StateAllowancePool):1st InterimPeriod

2nd InterimPeriod Final

TotalAllowances 35,189,232 32,953,521 30,170,750

RESet‐Aside

CEIPSet‐Aside

∆NGCCSet‐Aside

Remainder

RESet‐Asidecalculatedat5%ofstatebudget CleanEnergyIncentivePrograminfirstcomplianceperiod.

OBSet‐Asidecalculatedat10%ofstate’sNGCCcapacity

1,801,634 1,647,676 1,516,132

2,187,230 ‐ ‐

‐ 2,102,538 2,102,538

31,200,368 29,203,307 26,552,080

ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

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Coal1 Coal2BaselineGeneration(MWh) 3,791,000 4,366,500BaselineCO2 Emissions(tons) 4,150,950 4,944,100

%ofTotalStateGeneration

2030Allowances

Surplus/(Deficit)

%ofAllowancesNeeded

TotalBaselineStateGeneration:47,806,056MWh

2030AllowancePool(afterset‐asides):26,552,080

Needtoacquireadditionalcomplianceallowances

7.93% 9.13%

2,105,569 2,425,209

(2,045,381) (2,518,891)

51% 49%

ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

Mass‐BasedExample(Coal‐FiredEGU):

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NGCCExample: NGCC1 NGCC2 NGCC3Capacity(summer)MW 47 145 170BaselineGeneration(MWh) 30,316 718,446 142,924BaselineCO2 Emissions(tons) 15,348 311,844 62,930

CO2 EmissionRate(lb/MWh) 1,013 868 881

BaselineCapacityFactor 7% 56% 10%

%ofStateGeneration

AllowancePoolAllocation

TotalBaselineStateGeneration:47,806,056 MWh

2030AllowancePool(afterset‐asides):26,552,080 NGCCUnitswillrequireallowancesforincreasedgeneration

ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

Mass‐BasedExample(NGCCUnits):

0.063% 1.5% 0.30%16,838 399,034 79,282

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NGCCExample: NGCC1 NGCC2 NGCC3Capacity(summer)MW 47 145 170Generation@70%CF(MWh) 308,790 952,650 1,116,900CO2 Emissions@70%(tons) 156,329 413,500 491,770

AllowancePoolAllocation 16,838 399,034 79,382

∆NGCCSet‐AsideAllowances

TotalAllowances

OBAllowances=MWCap x(0.7– 0.5)x8,760x1,030/2,000

AssumesthatOBAllowancesareavailable

ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

Mass‐BasedExample(NGCCUnits):

42,407 130,831 153,388

59,245 529,865 153,388Surplus/(Deficit) (97,084) 116,365 (259,005)

NGCCUnitswithlowbaselinecapacityfactorswillneedtoacquireadditionalcomplianceallowances

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ProposedMass‐BasedProgram

Generation (MWh)

Emissions (tons)

Allowances (tons)

Coal-Fired EGU

Low CF NGCC Unit

High CF NGCC Unit

No

Sca

le

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• OverviewofEPA’sCleanPowerPlan• PerformanceStandards• State‐SpecificGoals

• Implementation

• CompliancePlanning

• Questions/Answers/PanelDiscussion

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GeneralConclusions:1. HeatRateimprovementswillplayonlyaminor

roleincomplianceatexistingcoal‐firedEGUsundereitherarate‐basedormass‐basedprogram.

2. OtherCO2 emissionreductionmeasures,includingnaturalgasco‐firing andnaturalgasconversion,couldprovidesignificantCO2 emissionreductionsforexistingcoal‐firedEGUsandshouldbeevaluatedasapartofeitherprogram.

3. RenewableEnergywillplayasignificantroleinoverallcompliancewitheitherarate‐basedprogram(RE‐ERCs)ormass‐basedprogram(RESet‐AsideAllowances)

CleanPowerPlan

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GeneralConclusions:

CleanPowerPlan

Rate‐BasedERCs

1. GS‐ERCsmaybelimitedbasedonthemethodologyusedtocalculatetheERCs.

2. GS‐ERCscannotbyusedbyNGCCunitsforcompliancewitharate‐basedprogram.

3. RE‐ERCswilllikelybeneededbycoal‐firedunitsandNGCCunitsforcompliance.

Mass‐BasedAllowances

1. OutputBased(∆NGCC)set‐asideallowancesmaybeneededtooffsetincreasedCO2 emissionsfromNGCCunits,especiallyunitswithlowbaselinecapacityfactors.

2. REset‐asideallowanceswilllikelybeneededbycoal‐firedEGUsandlowcapacityfactorNGCCunitsforcompliance.

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CleanPowerPlan

Building Block 1

Building Block 3

Building Block 2

PlanningforCompliance:BuildingBlock1

• IdentifypotentialCO2 emissionreductionopportunities:heatRateimprovements,fuelco‐firing,naturalgas‐conversion,carboncapture.

BuildingBlock2• IdentifyopportunitiestoincreaseNGCCgenerationandgenerateGS‐ERCsorOBSet‐AsideAllowances

BuildingBlock3 EvaluatepotentialNEWREcapacityandgeneratingopportunities

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CleanPowerPlan

PlanningforCompliance

REGeneration‐ GeneralEligibilityRequirements:• OnlyREmeasuresinstalledafter2012areeligiblefor

adjustingCO2 emissionratesorgeneratingCO2allowances.

• OnlythequantifiableandverifiableMWhofREgenerationproducedin2022andfutureyearsmaybeappliedtoadjustingCO2 emissionratesorgeneratingallowances.

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CleanPowerPlan

PlanningforCompliance:CompliancePlansNeedtoIntegrateanEvaluationof:

• Overallimpactsongeneration:• UnitRetirements• MeetingDemand• MeetingPeakDemand

• UnitDispatch• ReliabilityandGridStability• Operations

• Operatingbaseloadunitascyclingunit• RespondingtofluctuationinREgeneration

• CostofElectricity

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CleanPowerPlan

PlanningforCompliance:PreliminaryEvaluations

• Reviewexistinggeneratingportfolio:AffectedUnits,NGCCcapacityandcapacityfactors,baselineemissions&emissionrates

• ReviewandunderstandtheproposedFIPRate‐BasedandMass‐Basedtradingprograms

• Evaluatepros/consoftheRate‐BasedandMass‐Basedtradingoptions,aswellasotheralternatives

• ParticipateinstakeholdermeetingsandcloselyfollowdevelopmentofyourState’sSIP

• WorkwithyourstatetodevelopSIPrequirementsthataremostadvantageous

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CleanPowerPlan

Questions/AnswersForadditionalinformation,pleasecontact:

Ken SnellSr. Manager Environmental 312-269-2318kenneth.j.snell@sargentlundy.com

Andrew CarstensDirector Environmental Services312-269-3640andrew.j.carstens@sargentlundy.com

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