u.s. department of the interior u.s. geological survey abrupt climate change: responses and impacts...
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Abrupt Climate Change: Responses and ImpactsAbrupt Climate Change: Responses and Impacts
Dr. Thomas R. ArmstrongSenior Advisor, Global Change USGS
Dr. Thomas R. ArmstrongSenior Advisor, Global Change USGS
Modeling the FutureModeling the Future
Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Climate Change: Natural vs. AnthropogenicClimate Change: Natural vs. Anthropogenic
Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Abrupt Climate Change: The Past 20,000 YearsAbrupt Climate Change: The Past 20,000 Years
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
05101520
Tem
pera
ture
in C
entr
al G
reen
land
(C
)
Thousands of years before present
10°C (18°F) increase in several decades at end of Younger Dryas interval (YD)
Alley, 2000
warmer
colder
YD
Vikings Leave
• Small changes in temperature can lead to significant local human impacts
• Big temperature changes have occurred rapidly that could have significant global impacts
Vikings to Greenland
Abrupt Climate Change: The Past Abrupt Climate Change: The Past 400,000 Years400,000 Years
Lower, red line = temperature Lower, red line = temperature Upper, blue line = CO2 levelUpper, blue line = CO2 level
CurrentCO2
Some Responses to Abrupt Climate Some Responses to Abrupt Climate ChangeChangeSome Responses to Abrupt Climate Some Responses to Abrupt Climate ChangeChange
Strong Storms Sea Level Rise
Floods Drought
Habitat Change
Climate Change, Sea Ice Loss, Climate Change, Sea Ice Loss, and Polar Bear Habitatand Polar Bear Habitat
State of Knowledge Sea Ice: State of Knowledge Sea Ice: General Circulation Model Projections General Circulation Model Projections
and Observed Recordand Observed Record
Significant loss of Significant loss of polar bear habitat (red)polar bear habitat (red)
Response to Climate ChangeResponse to Climate Change
Projected Permafrost Degradation by 2100Projected Permafrost Degradation by 2100
Since the last glacial maximum
( 20,000 b.p.):
Since the last glacial maximum
( 20,000 b.p.):
past 100 years - 1.0 - 2.0mm/yr past 100 years - 1.0 - 2.0mm/yr
sea level has risen 120 m (400 ft) sea level has risen 120 m (400 ft)
Low lying coastal areas are proneto more frequent inundation
As sea level rises, flooding, erosion,and salt water intrusion will accelerate
Low lying coastal areas are proneto more frequent inundation
As sea level rises, flooding, erosion,and salt water intrusion will accelerate
Two factors: increased meltwater and thermal expansionTwo factors: increased meltwater and thermal expansion
As the Earth Warms, Sea-Level RisesAs the Earth Warms, Sea-Level RisesAs the Earth Warms, Sea-Level RisesAs the Earth Warms, Sea-Level Rises
Future Science ChallengesFuture Science Challenges
Forecasting changes in state
Forecasting accelerated rates
Linkages between state change and system response
System thresholds and their triggers
Adaptation and mitigation strategies
The Vision – A National Climate Effects The Vision – A National Climate Effects NetworkNetwork
• An integrated National climate An integrated National climate effect monitoring network capable effect monitoring network capable at a range of scales.at a range of scales.
• Focus on early detection and Focus on early detection and forecasting in support of adaptation forecasting in support of adaptation or mitigation strategies.or mitigation strategies.
• An information dissemination and An information dissemination and decision support system.decision support system.
• The capacity for the next generation The capacity for the next generation to protect and sustain our National to protect and sustain our National trust resources through early trust resources through early detection of change.detection of change.
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