us coal exports
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www.
sghm
artin
eau.
com US COAL EXPORTS
Andrew WhiteheadSGH Martineau LLP
London, Birmingham, Brussels
www.sghmartineau.com
What I will cover….
US coal exports to:
• Europe• India• China
including trends and prospects.
www.sghmartineau.com
The United States
• Total US exports in 2011 c10% of production (up on 2000-2010 which averaged c5%): world’s 4th largest exporter (2/3 of which met coal)
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3830
China & India
Europe
Chin
a &
Indi
a
www.sghmartineau.com
Europe
www.sghmartineau.com
Consumption Imports Imports from the US
050,000,000
100,000,000150,000,000200,000,000250,000,000300,000,000350,000,000400,000,000
323,
703,
250
181,
881,
364
28,3
73,5
00334,
750,
000
208,
337,
000
38,3
34,0
00 20102011
Source: European Commission ‘Eurostats’
Shor
t ton
s
EU Coal Statistics
www.sghmartineau.com
Prospects For Coal In The EUThermal coal• Coal accounts for c30% of power generation• Short term expansion (nuclear and mine closures), but reducing to 15% by 2030?
• 2020 carbon reduction target• 2020 renewables target• Large Combustion Plant Directive – forced plant closures• EU ETS – full auctioning of permits from 2013• Industrial Emissions Directive – removal of NOx from flue gases
• Conversion of coal plant to biomass: fuel supply a key constraint but US/Canada a major supply source!
• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – funding for pilot projects• UK policy – no new coal plant without CCS, and market support for CCS • Overall - markets remain weak.Met coal• Europe is destination for c50% US exports• Demand affected by recession• Steel production will recover, but difficult to predict when and with what vigour. Its
re-emergence will be into a world of tight emissions controls and higher costs
www.sghmartineau.com
India
www.sghmartineau.com
Indian Coal Statistics
Consumption Imports Imports from the US
0100,000,000200,000,000300,000,000400,000,000500,000,000600,000,000700,000,000800,000,000900,000,000
721,
986,
000
101,
564,
000
2,72
2,67
7
788,
409,
000
115,
743,
000
5,00
0,00
0
20102011
Source: www.eia.gov
Shor
t ton
s
www.sghmartineau.com
Prospects For Coal In India
Thermal coal• Coal accounts for c55% of power generation• World’s 3rd largest producer after China and US• Inefficient production – reliant on imports• Imports increasing – doubled since 2008• Reduction of carbon emission intensity by 20-25% by 2020• ‘India – Perform, Achieve and Trade System’ • National Action Plan on Climate Change
Met coal• Long-term plan to expand steel industry • Vast domestic resource, but quality is poor and supply cannot keep up with
demand• Imports predicted to more than double by 2015• Most imports come from Australia
www.sghmartineau.com
China
www.sghmartineau.com
Chinese Coal Statistics
Consumption Imports Imports from the US
0500,000,000
1,000,000,0001,500,000,0002,000,000,0002,500,000,0003,000,000,0003,500,000,0004,000,000,0004,500,000,000
3,69
5,37
8,00
0
195,
063,
000
5,50
0,00
0
4,05
3,82
9,00
0
209,
439,
147
6,06
2,71
2
20102011
Source: www.eia.gov
Shor
t ton
s
www.sghmartineau.com
Prospects For Coal In China
Thermal coal• Coal accounts for c71% of power generation• World’s largest producer• 12th Five Year Plan:
• 17% reduction in carbon intensity by 2012• 9.5% or more of energy from renewable sources by 2015
• Costs of alternative energy sources falling (nuclear/wind/solar)• National carbon trading scheme expected by 2016• Coal will remain dominant fuel source• Domestic supplies often used as a hedge against high international pricesMet coal• Scarce domestic resource compared to thermal coal• 2012: projected 10% increase in imports over 2011
www.sghmartineau.com
Thank You
Andrew WhiteheadSenior Partner and Head of Energy and
Climate ChangeT: + 44 (0)870 763 1528M: + 44 (0)7831 160 753
E: andrew.whitehead@sghmartineau.com
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