update from the noaa space weather prediction national ......1. establish benchmarks for space...

National Policy Initiatives on Space Weather

NERC GMDTFJan 21, 2017

Bill MurtaghSpace Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee

National Science and Technology CouncilExecutive Office of the President

Update from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction

Center

Bill MurtaghProgram Coordinator

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center

National Policy Initiatives

29 October 2015 – Release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan

1. Establish Benchmarks for Space Weather Events

2. Enhance Response and Recovery Capabilities

3. Improve Protection and Mitigation Efforts

4. Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Prediction of Impacts on Critical Infrastructure

5. Improve Space Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecasting

6. Increase International Cooperation

Implementation of the National Space Weather Action Plan - six high-level goals

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Executive Order 13744 of October 13, 2016 – Coordinating Efforts to Prepare the Nation for Space Weather Events

Orders the implementation of necessary, high-level activities that were not included in the Action Plan, including:

• Develop a plan to test and evaluate available devices that mitigate the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the electrical power grid

• Identify mechanisms for sustaining and transitioning research to operations and operations to research, collaborating with industry and academia

• Make historical data from the GPS constellation and other U.S. Government satellites publicly available

• Develop a coordinated Federal operating concept and checklist to coordinate Federal activities to respond to notification of space weather events

“To ensure accountability for and coordination of research, development, and implementation of activities identified in this order and in the Action Plan, the National Science and Technology Council shall establish a Space Weather Operations, Research, and Mitigation Subcommittee [SWORM]”

Space Weather Research and Forecasting ActTo improve understanding and forecasting of space weather events, and for other purposes

115TH CONGRESS1ST SESSION

Bi-partisan Senate bill introduced on 12 Jan 2017

National Strategy Benchmarks

• Describe physical characteristics and conditions against which a space-weather event can be measured

• Provide a clear and consistent description of space-weather events based on current scientific understanding and the historical record

• Develop vulnerability assessments• Develop mitigation, response, and recovery

plans8

BenchmarksFive benchmarks are under development by multi-agency working group teams

• Induced geo-electric fields

• Ionizing radiation

• Ionospheric disturbances

• Solar radio bursts

• Upper atmospheric expansionTeams have finished working on the first phase of benchmark

The Benchmark paper is on the Federal Register for public commentComments due NLT: 20 March 2017

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SWAP 5.5.5 DOI will identify and fill gaps in magnetotelluric (MT) surveys of the United States, beginning with the northeastern United States and concentrating on geographic regions judged to have the highest induction hazards.

• NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and GeospaceScience identified the necessary resources to fund the MT surveys for the critical NE sector.

• DHS S&T also exploring options.

Improving E-field measurements

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SWAP 6.2.1 Department of Interior (USGS) will lead development of a plan for expansion of the real-time ground-based magnetometer network to improve global geophysical monitoring.

Deliverable: Complete strategy for expanding the magnetometer network

…and increasing magnetometer measurements

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EO Sec. 5. (a) The Secretary of Energy, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, shall develop a plan to test and evaluate available devices that mitigate the effects of geomagnetic disturbances on the electrical power grid through the development of a pilot program that deploys such devices, in situ, in the electrical power grid.

After the development of the plan, the Secretary shall implement the plan in collaboration with industry. In taking action pursuant to this subsection, the Secretaries of DOE and DHS shall consult with the Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

Assessing engineering solutions

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Update from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction

Center

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

E-field map prototype• Defined a set of geographic gridpoints• For each gridpoint:

–Determined the closest geomagnetic observatory

–Determined physiographic region where grid point is located

–Each physiographic region is mapped to a Fernberg 1D model

• E-field for all unique station-model pairs are calculated in real-time

• Currently running in prototype mode at SWPCPhysiographic Regions – Fenneman & Johnson, 1946‘Fernberg’ models in EPRI report 1026430 (Fernberg 2012)

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Geographic Grid

2 degree x 2 degree grid over lower 48 - Calculations done in real-time for yellow and orange points

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Mapped to a Fernberg 1D model

Model Assignments

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Magnetometer Station Assignments

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Problem!!

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Station Distances (km)

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Sample Prototype Map

Input magnetometer data provided courtesy of USGS and NRCANUSGS observatories: NEW, FRN, TUC, BOU, BSL, FRDNRCAN (Canada) observatories: VIC, BRD, OTT

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Prototype

Recent Storm – 25 Oct 2016

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

13-14 Mar 1989 Storm

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Sample Gridded Data Product

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Near term plans• Text products and animations of the maps will

be provided to interested collaborators (working on web access)

• Looking at feasibility of adding more geomagnetic observatory data

• Geomagnetic field interpolation to replace using nearest station

• Earthscope-based impedances to replace 1D Fernberg conductivity models where available (to be provided by USGS)

• Ten-second cadence• Looking for collaborators to help validate

THANK YOU!

NOAA SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER

Geoelectric Field Calculation Methods• Input – Observed Geomagnetic Field (B-field) time series• Earth conductivity acts like a frequency dependent filter:

– Earth conductivity affects the input signal amplitude and phase differently, depending on the input signal frequency

– High frequency fields have relatively shallow penetration so the interaction is affected by the top most layers

– Lower frequency fields have relatively deeper penetration and the interaction is affected by lower layers with different conductivity properties

• Methods to determine the filter:– One-dimensional multi-layer models (conductivity varies with depth) allow the

filter to be calculated numerically (but typically will have limited accuracy –output has to be validated before using such a model)

– A magnetotelluric site survey (measures B-field and E-field together) allows the filter to be constructed empirically which incorporates all the effects of the 3D Earth conductivity (not available in all locations)

2.1 Complete an All-Hazards Power Outage Response and Recovery Plan

2.1.1 DHS, in partnership with DOE, will develop an all-hazard Power Outage Incident Annex (POIA) to the Federal Interagency Operations Plans (FIOPs)for response and recoverythat includes the response toand recovery from an extremespace-weather event.

4.2.1 DOE, in coordination with DHS, DOC, and stakeholders in the energy sector, will develop plans to provide monitoring and data collection systems. The plans will inform a system-wide, real-time view of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) at the regional level and, to the extent possible, display the status of power generation, transmission, and distribution systems during geomagnetic storms.

4.2.2 DOE, in coordination with regulatory agencies and the electric power industry, will define data requirements that facilitate a centralized reporting system to collect real-time information on the status of the electric power transmission and distribution system during geomagnetic storms.

S.2943 - National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017

12/23/2016 - Became Public Law No: 114-328.

Sunspot data courtesy of WDC-SILSO