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United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Crop Production - Annual

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

Cotton Ginnings

Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings

January Crop ProductionExecutive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

January 12, 2018

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

Field Crops Stocks Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Corn Citrus Potatoes

Soybeans Soybeans Sweet Potatoes

All Cotton Sorghum Peppermint Oil

Sorghum Rice Spearmint Oil

Rice Hay Hops

Hay & Forage All Wheat Taro (Hawaii)

Peanuts Barley

Proso Millet Oats

Minor Oilseeds

Sugarcane

Sugarbeets

Tobacco

Pulse Crops

Winter Wheat

Contents

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

December Ag Survey Off-Farm Grain Stocks

Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities

Collection MethodMail, Phone, Internet,

Personal Interview

Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal

Interview

Crops Included Field Crops

Corn, Soybeans, All Wheat,

Durum Wheat, Barley, Oats,

Sorghum, Pulse Crops

States All except HI All except AK, HI, and NV

Sample Size 81,782 ~8,500

Collection Period Nov 29 – Dec 19 Nov 29 – Dec 20

Survey Overview

Principal Crops Planted AcreageUnited States

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

Year Principal CropsChange From

Previous Year

Million Acres

2008 325.6 +5.3

2009 319.0 -6.6

2010 315.4 -3.6

2011 314.3 -1.1

2012 324.3 +10.0

2013 324.9 +0.6

2014 326.4 +1.5

2015 319.0 -7.5

2016 319.2 +0.3

2017 319.1 -0.1

319

303

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million AcresPrincipal Crops

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Corn

Planted Mil Ac 90.2 -0.3 -4.1

Harvested Mil Ac 82.7 -0.5 -4.7

Yield Bu/Ac 176.6 +0.7 +1.1

Production Bil Bu 14.6 +0.2 -3.6

Stocks Bil Bu 12.5 NA +1.1

176.6

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

170.0

180.0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

13.5

13.7

13.9

14.1

14.3

14.5

14.7

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels2017 United States Corn ProductionTrade Analyst Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation

14.3

13.7

14.7

14.1 13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4

15.3

16.9 16.9

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion BushelsCorn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

12.1

12.2

12.3

12.4

12.5

12.6

12.7

December

Billion Bushels

2017 United States Corn StocksTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS

NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Soybeans

Planted Mil Ac 90.1 -0.1 +8.0

Harvested Mil Ac 89.5 +0.1 +8.3

Yield Bu/Ac 49.1 -0.8 -5.6

Production Bil Bu 4.39 -0.8 +2.2

Stocks Bil Bu 3.16 NA +8.9

49.1

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

4.15

4.20

4.25

4.30

4.35

4.40

4.45

4.50

August September October November Final

Billion Bushels

2017 United States Soybean ProductionTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS

NASS Forecast Individual Industry Expectation

3.253.17

3.50 3.48

3.313.21

3.50

4.024.12

4.49

4.69

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

2.95

3.00

3.05

3.10

3.15

3.20

3.25

3.30

3.35

December

Billion Bushels

2017 United States Soybean StocksTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS

NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

All Cotton

Planted Mil Ac 12.6 -0.1 +25.2

Harvested Mil Ac 11.3 -0.5 +19.4

Yield Lb/Ac 899 -0.3 +3.7

Production Mil Bls 21.3 -0.8 +23.8

Cottonseed

Production Mil Tons 6.73 -0.9 +25.3

899

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Pounds per AcreAll Cotton Yield

United States

Yield Linear (Yield)

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Sorghum

Planted Mil Ac 5.63 -1.5 -15.9

Harvested Mil Ac 5.05 -0.1 -18.1

Yield Bu/Ac 72.1 +2.4 -7.4

Production Mil Bu 364 +2.3 -24.2

Stocks Mil Bu 226 NA -26.9

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Rice

Planted Mil Ac 2.46 -1.0 -21.8

Harvested Mil Ac 2.37 -0.7 -23.3

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,507 +0.6 +3.7

Production Mil Cwt 178 -0.1 -20.5

Stocks Mil Cwt 120 NA -25.4

233228

245

273

227

236

220

249

235

263

217

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun Aug

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

All Hay

Harvested Mil Ac 53.8 +0.5 +0.6

Yield Tons/Ac 2.44 -0.8 -3.2

Production Mil Tons 131 -0.3 -2.6

Stocks Mil Tons 86.2 NA -10.0

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Production

All Other Hay Mil Tons 76.4 +0.7 -0.4

Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 55.1 -1.7 -5.5

Proso Millet Mil Bu 14.6 NA +16.0

Peanuts Bil Lbs 7.23 -5.3 +29.6

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Production

Canola Bil Lbs 3.12 +11.2 +1.0

Flaxseed Mil Bu 3.84 NA -55.6

Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 60.3 NA -37.4

Rapeseed Mil Lbs 20.8 NA +7.4

Safflower Mil Lbs 180 NA -17.7

Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.17 +19.8 -18.2

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Production

Sugarcane Mil Tons 32.2 +0.4 +0.4

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 35.3 -2.0 -4.3

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 710 -1.9 +13.0

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Production

A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 125 -10.1 -72.8

Dry Peas Mil Cwt 14.2 -7.7 -48.9

Dry Beans Mil Cwt 35.8 +1.5 +24.9

Lentils Mil Cwt 7.48 +0.3 -41.5

Wrinkled Seed Thou Cwt 357 NA -18.7

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Production

Potatoes Mil Cwt 441 <+0.1 <-0.1

Sweet Potatoes Mil Cwt 35.6 NA +13.0

Peppermint Oil Mil Lbs 5.78 NA +1.1

Spearmint Oil Mil Lbs 2.80 NA -12.8

Taro (Hawaii) Mil Lbs 3.69 NA +5.2

Hops Mil Lbs 104 NA +19.8

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

2017 Crop Production – Annual

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Estimate Year

Stocks

All Wheat Bil Bu 1.87 NA -9.9

Barley Mil Bu 155 NA -19.4

Oats Mil Bu 66.8 NA -11.5

2.51

2.822.87

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.81

3.28

2.92

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18

Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

1.78

1.80

1.82

1.84

1.86

1.88

1.90

1.92

December

Billion Bushels2017 United States All Wheat StocksTrade Analyst Expectations vs NASS

NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

Winter Wheat Seedings

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Wheat, Winter

Planted Mil Ac 32.6 NA -0.3

32.6

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

NASSEstimate

LowOf Expectations

AverageOf Expectations

HighOf Expectations

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

December March June Final

Million Acres

2018 United States Winter Wheat AcresTrade Analysts Expectations vs NASS

NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

Survey OverviewFlorida Citrus

Objective Measurement

Survey Type Field Measurement

Crops Included Oranges, Grapefruit, Tangerines

Sample Size 1,732 groves

Collection Period December 11-22

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

January 2018 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit January Previous Previous

2018 Forecast Season

Production

Oranges Mil Tons 3.99 +0.2 -22.8

Grapefruit Thou Tons 530 -8.3 -22.3

Lemons Thou Tons 870 -3.8 -1.8

Tangerines &

MandarinsThou Tons 881 -8.5 -14.7

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

Release Date Report Title

January 22 Cotton Ginnings

January 26 Cattle on Feed

January 30 Agricultural Prices

January 31Cattle

Sheep and Goats

February 1

CAIR: Cotton System

CAIR: Fats and Oils

CAIR: Flour Millings

CAIR: Grain Crushings

February 8Cotton Ginnings

Crop Production

February 22County Estimates

Corn, Soybeans, Sorghum, Sunflower

Upcoming Reports

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

USDA-NASS

1-12-18

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov

For Questions202-720-2127

800-727-9540

nass@nass.usda.gov