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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Adult Students 2013
Carol Aslanian, Senior Vice President,
Aslanian Market Research
Understanding the Demands and Preferences of Today’s “Post-traditional” Student
July 16, 2013
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
2004
17.3M
2006
17.8M For-Profit Sector Share: 11% (BMO Cap.)
2008
19.5M
2010
21.6M
Overall Higher Education Enrollment (Undergraduate, Graduate, 1st Profess.; fall unduplicated headcount)
2
(NCES – Fall Enrollment)
2012
21.6M
• Growth trend flattened beginning 2011 • Enrollments expected to be flat through 2013
Adult students (25+) make up
about 50% of all higher education
enrollments.
Noncredit: 20m+
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
2020
23.7M 2016
22M
…and what’s to come?
3
(NCES – Fall Enrollment)
Projections
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
50% of college students finish in four years…
…50% do not (DOE)
4
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
US Higher Education Enrollment Trends
Growth by Age Group
2010 2021
18 - 24 years: 10%
25 - 34 years: 20%
35+ years: 25%
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Percent Age 25+
Undergraduate 31%
Graduate 81%
Total 42%
Actual Total Adult Enrollment: About 50%
12-month unduplicated headcount is a better indicator of total adult learner traffic given the nature of adult enrollment.
Higher Education Enrollments
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Source: NCES – Fall Enrollment
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
For-Profit Postsecondary Sector Enrollment and Market Share
2010 2.43m students (11.2% share of all postsecondary enrollments)
2016 2.1m** students (9.4% share of all postsecondary enrollments) (projection)
**Market expected to hit bottom in 2013 (9.1%)**
Sources: NCES* and BMO Capital**
(degree-granting and non degree-granting institutions)
7
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
FEEDER HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
High School Graduation Trends (National)
WiCHE
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
High School Graduation Trends (Regional)
Public/Private by Region: 1996-2028
WiCHE
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
High School Graduates are Changing: Implications for Higher Education?
• In 2020+ minority students will outnumber white students
on college campuses
• One-third of high school graduates will be of Hispanic backgrounds
• Will seek convenience and flexibility in higher education
• Most will have enrolled in online courses in high school
© Aslanian Market Research
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
What does this mean for your Enrollments?
• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more disruption to the traditional higher education market
• Declining high school graduate pool will lead to more competitive and crowded traditional higher education market
• Colleges must identify and utilize innovative and adaptive methods to attract post-traditional students in order to succeed in current/future environment
© Aslanian Market Research
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Who Are College Students Today?
or…
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
The Changing Profile of a College Student
• 27% of all undergraduates today are “traditional” students
– 18-24
– living on campus
– attend full-time
• 73% of all undergraduates today are “post-traditional”
– working
– live off-campus
– financially independent
– often first-generation
• Note: Approximately 25% of adult students (25+) are seeking “Traditional Study”: day classes, traditional semesters, classes twice per week, etc…)
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
The Future? Tech-Savvy Kids
25%
28%
58%
63%
69%
Open a web browser
Make a mobile phone call
Play a basic computer game
Turn a computer on/off
Operate a computer mouse
Children ages 2-3 whose mothers say they can…
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
2.3m 3.5m
4.6m
6.1m
9.9m 10.8m*
780k 1.2m 1.8m 2.1m
3.3m 3.4m*
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2016 (est)
Took at Least 1 Online Course Took All Courses Online
Market Trends in Online Education
16
* 10.8m is based on 10% annual compounded growth
(Sloan C estimates 10% growth between 2009-2010)
Sources: Eduventures Online Higher Education Market Update 2011; BMO Capital Markets, Education and Training 2012;
Babson Survey Research Group, Going the Distance: Online Education in the United States, 2011 © Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Future of Online Enrollments
2012 15% of all enrollments
2016 20% of all enrollments (est.)
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Growth rate of online enrollment (while slowing) is
3-4 times the rate of
classroom enrollment
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
ADULTS AS STUDENTS 2013
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Adult Students: Snapshot
• Aslanian Market Research studies in 20 locations
nationwide
• Recent undergraduate and graduate students: 25+ years
20
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Majority are female
• Getting younger
• Majority are non-minority
• More returning to undergrad and grad school with advanced credentials
• Majority are employed and juggle home, work and study
• Most often finance their own study
General Personal Characteristics
21
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Undergraduate
To change careers 30%
To advance in current career 23%
To achieve a specific level of learning / obtain a degree
10%
To keep up-to-date in current career 11%
To enter a first career 11%
Unemployed/underemployed and needed more education in order to get a job
5%
Returning to the job market for the first time in several years and needed more education
1%
Personal reasons not related to job or career 9%
Motivation for Study
22
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Undergraduate Graduate
To change careers 30% 24%
To advance in current career 23 39
To achieve a specific level of learning / obtain a degree
10 12
To keep up-to-date in current career 11 10
To enter a first career 11 6
Unemployed/underemployed and needed more education in order to get a job
5 4
Returning to the job market for the first time in several years and needed more education
1 1
Personal reasons not related to job or career 9 5
Motivation for Study
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Seek degrees, but also certificates, licenses and courses
• Study in career fields
• Most often: Business, STEM, Social Sciences and, Health Professions
• Prefer shorter/fast-track courses: 10-weeks or less
General Learning Patterns
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Full-time and part time (degree seekers) (53% vs. 47%)
• Evening (55%) AND day (45%) classroom study
• Prefer multiple learning options – class/hybrid/online
General Learning Patterns (cont.)
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIME OF ENROLLMENT
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
32%- Bachelor’s plus
Education-Level: Undergraduate
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20%
20%
18%
9%
21%
4% 5% 1% 1% High school diploma / GED
One or two years of college, but no Associate’s degree
Associate’s degree
Three or four years of college, but no Bachelor’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree
Master’s degree
Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate
Doctorate© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
32%- Master’s plus
Education-Level: Graduate
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57%
11%
25%
4% 3% Bachelor’s degree
Some graduate courses but no Master’s degree
Master’s degree
Some graduate courses beyond a Master’s degree, but no Doctorate
Doctorate
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Age at Time of Study
29
Undergraduate Graduate
25-29 24 27
30-39 26 26
40-49 20 17
50-59 17 18
60 and older 7 5
Median 32 Years 33 Years
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Gender
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Undergraduate Graduate
Female 71% 67%
Male 28 32
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Ethnicity
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Undergraduate Graduate
White 77% 79%
African-American 7 5
Asian or Pacific Islander
6 9
Hispanic 5 3
Native American 1 1
Other 2 1
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Employment Status at Time of Study
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Undergraduate Graduate
Employed full time 56% 69%
Employed part time 19 16
Not employed 19 13
Retired 4 2
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Income at Time of Study
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Undergraduate Graduate
Under $25,000 15% 10%
$25,000 - $39,999 16 11
$40,000 - $54,999 15 11
$55,000 - $69,999 13 13
$70,000 - $84,999 11 12
$85,000 - $99,999 9 12
$100,000 - $114,999 8 9
$115,000 - $129,000 4 6
$130,000 - $149,000 3 5
More than $150,000 5 12
Median income $55,000 $70,000 © Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
HOW DO THEY PAY FOR COURSES?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Course Payment Method
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Undergraduate Graduate
Personal funds 61% 65%
Student loans 38 34
Pell Grants or other
federal/state/local government
grants and scholarships
28 14
Tuition reimbursement 17 28
Personal loans 8 10
Private scholarships 7 9
Assistantships/tuition waivers 4 10
Military/Veterans' benefits 2 2
Other 3 2 © Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
WHAT CREDENTIALS DO THEY SEEK?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Credential - Undergraduate
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Enrolled in a degree program
32%
Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s degree
program 21%
Certificate, license, or diploma in a
professional area 27%
Individual Courses 20%
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Degree Level Pursued- Undergraduate
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Associate 16%
Bachelor’s 84%
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Credential - Graduate
39
Enrolled in a degree program
59% Courses for transfer to a Bachelor’s
degree program 17%
Certificate, license, or
diploma in a professional
area 24%
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Degree Level Pursued- Graduate
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Master’s 81%
Doctorate 19%
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
FULL-TIME OR PART-TIME STUDY?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Full-Time/Part-time Study
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Full-time 52%
Part-time 48%
Undergraduate
Full-time 45%
Part-time 55%
Graduate
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
DO THEY PREFER DAY, EVENING, OR WEEKEND STUDY IF TAKING A
CLASSROOM COURSE?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Time of Day For Classroom Courses - Preferred
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3%
27%
16%
44%
5% 5% 2%
17% 12%
56%
8% 5%
Weekday earlymornings
Weekdaymornings
Weekdayafternoons
Weekdayevenings
Weekends No classroomcourses - online
only
Undergraduate Graduate
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
ARE THEY ATTRACTED TO HYBRID AND ONLINE STUDY?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Undergraduate
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76%
33%
44% 43% 43%
26%
Classroom Hybrid Online Only
Actual* Preferred
* Respondents may give more than one response © Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Actual/Preferred Format of Study: Graduate
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72%
32%
40% 45%
33%
22%
Classroom Hybrid Online Only
Actual* Preferred
* Respondents may give more than one response © Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
DO THEY PREFER ACCELERATED COURSES?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Undergraduate
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
15 weeks or more
14 weeks
13 weeks
12 weeks
11 weeks
10 weeks
9 weeks
8 weeks
7 weeks
6 weeks
5 weeks
4 weeks
3 weeks
2 weeks
1 week
Preferred
Actual
Median Preferred: 10 Weeks
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
15 weeks or more
14 weeks
13 weeks
12 weeks
11 weeks
10 weeks
9 weeks
8 weeks
7 weeks
6 weeks
5 weeks
4 weeks
3 weeks
2 weeks
1 week
Preferred
Actual
Actual/Preferred Number of Weeks for a Course: Graduate
50
Median Preferred: 10 Weeks
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
WHAT SUBJECTS DO THEY MOST OFTEN STUDY?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Undergrad Degrees
Business
STEM
Social Sciences
Health Professions
Humanities/Liberal
Arts
Education
Graduate Degrees
Business
Education
Health Professions
Social Sciences
STEM
Humanities/Liberal
Arts
Subject Field of Study (in order of market demand)
52
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
HOW DO THEY BECOME AWARE OF YOUR COLLEGE DURING THEIR
SEARCH?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Internet Search Engines
College Search Sites
Mail to Home
Emails
Television Ads
Ads on Websites
Radio Ads
Newspaper Ads
Billboards
Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5)
3.2
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.1
Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Undergraduate
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Internet Search Engines
College Search Sites
Mail to Home
Emails
Television Ads
Ads on Websites
Radio Ads
Newspaper Ads
Billboards
Bus/Train Ads (On a scale of 5)
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.1
Methods of Raising Awareness of Colleges: Graduate
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.9
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Podcasts
Blogs
Social Media Fan Pages
Faculty/student Chats
Online Open House
Undergraduate
Graduate
Likely to Use Online Outreach (5-point scale)
56
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
What Social Media do Adults Use?
57
15%
4%
5%
25%
50%
78%
15%
2%
8%
26%
38%
79%
None
Other
MySpace
Undergraduate
Graduate
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
30% make NO direct contact with college until they submit their application.
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Current or Former Students
The College’s Website
Friend, Family, Co-workers
Radio Ads
Newspaper Ads
Television Ads
Direct Mail
Other
29%
23
19
10
5
5
4
5
Primary Sources of Information About the Preferred College
59
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
College Characteristics That Led Respondents to Apply: Undergraduate
60
Availability of a particular course or program
30%
Proximity of college to home or work 19
Cost of tuition and fees 18
Day and time courses meet 8
Reputation of the college or program 8
Accreditation of the college or program 3
Availability of online instruction 5
Length of time to complete my studies 5
Transferability of previously earned credits 1
Something else 3 © Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
College Characteristics That Led Respondents to Apply: Graduate
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Proximity of college to home or work 21%
Cost of tuition and fees 21
Day and time courses meet 21
Availability of a particular course or program 12
Reputation of the college or program 11
Availability of online instruction 7
Accreditation of the college or program 2
Length of time to complete my studies 2
Transferability of previously earned credits 3
Something else 1
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
RETAINING ADULT STUDENTS: WHAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE?
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
•Convenient schedules
•Multiple formats
•Adequate supply of courses at the right time
•Recognizing that “life can interfere”
•Tracking and follow-up…
•ROI
What Makes the Difference?
63
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
ISSUES AND OPPORTUNITIES
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CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Cost and reputation matter most
• Rising importance of “brand”
• Increasing acquisition costs/limited
marketing budgets
• Electronic marketing and recruitment
Issues
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Issues
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• Keeping up with market demand - continuous market research
• Tracking and follow-up of inquiries and applicants
• Expanding demand for online format
• Importance of local/ground presence for online delivery
© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Younger “adult” students • Multiple formats are essential:
classroom/hybrid/online • Customer Service/24-7 Operations • Time to completion
Issues
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Aging society: “Age 60 is the new age 40 and it has become prime time”
• Education matched to today’s jobs
Issues
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Stackable certificates
• International adult student demand for online education
• Declining share of for-profit institutions
Opportunities
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Adult student market growth
• Non-degree credentials
• Hybrid/blended and online learning
• Low residence programs
Opportunities
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Growth of non-credit career/professional development market
• Changing nature of the economy/jobs
• U.S. recession driving greater demand for graduate education
Opportunities
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
• Competitive knowledge-based global economy requires workforce to participate in and complete programs
• Age no longer predicts learning patterns
Opportunities
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© Aslanian Market Research
CONFERENCE ON ADULT LEARNER ENROLLMENT MANAGEMENT 2013
Thank you!
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Questions?
Aslanian Market Research
caslanian@educationdynamics.com
Office 201.377.3321
Mobile 917.216.1969
Fax 201.653.2970
www.educationdynamics.com
adultstudents.educationdynamics.com
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