two stages in azerbaijan in terms of energy diplomacy

Azerbaijan’s Energy Diplomacy: Balancing North

and South, Going West

Dr. Elnur Soltanov, IFDT, Baku, 2012

Two stages in Azerbaijan in terms of Energy Diplomacy

Diplomacy serving Energy - 1990s

Energy serving Diplomacy – 2000s

Different options

Energy as a tool of diplomacy

Energy as the tool of diplomacy

Energy as the context of diplomacy

Not in par with agricultural, demographic or healthcare policies

The framework determining the foreign policy identity of the country

Energy policy has not been the purpose though

The main and the most important aspect of the oil/gas factor: consolidation of sovereignty

Two major issues vis-à-vis this goal in 1990s:

1. Nagorno Karabakh

2. Oil and Gas

Prosperous and Stable Azerbaijan

Consolidated Sovereignty

Now, it is time to settle the dispute

What energy means regionally and globally?

Georgia, Turkey: Blessing

Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan: Support

EU and the US: Security

Russia and Iran: Concern

Price paid by Azerbaijan: Nagorno Karabakh

Imitating the successes of oil policy while applying the lessons learned in the process

Maintain the overall position achieved already: the energy situation is good enough

Repeat the success of oil in gas deals

Bear in mind that the current situation is beneficial enough

Keep Russia and Iran satisfied

Cement the relationship with progressive countries

Keep alternatives open: as long as cost effective

Managing relations with Turkey: too many eggs, but also the most reliable

Keeping healthy relations with Georgia

esoltanov@ada.edu.az

Rate of extraction vs. Rate of new findings

Peak oil and gas?

This could intensify exploration in new fields – a potential for conflict in the Caspian

Turkey: doing well and relaxed a. already feeling like an energy transit

country Lucrative and politically strategic deals

with Russia Knows it is the best option

Azerbaijan: doing well and relaxed a. earning more than $10 billion a year;

in some ways more than its economy could absorb

$30 billion in the oil fund Less sure knows Turkey well enough