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TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
www.harriswilliams.com
Investment banking services are provided by Harris Williams LLC, a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC, and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd, which is a private limitedcompany incorporated under English law with its registered office at 5th Floor, 6 St. Andrew Street, London EC4A 3AE, UK, registered with the Registrar of Companies for England andWales (registration number 07078852). Harris Williams & Co. Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Harris Williams & Co. is a trade name under which HarrisWilliams LLC and Harris Williams & Co. Ltd conduct business.
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www.harriswilliams.com
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
1
CONTENTS
M&A TRANSACTIONS
PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW
STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE
OUR GROUP
CONTACTS
UNITED STATES
Frank MountcastleManaging Directorfmountcastle@harriswilliams.com+1 (804) 915-0124
Jason BassManaging Directorjbass@harriswilliams.com+1 (804) 915-0132
Joe ConnerManaging Director jconner@harriswilliams.com+1 (804) 915-0151
Jershon JonesDirector jjones@harriswilliams.com+1 (804) 932-1356
Jeff BurkettDirector jburkett@harriswilliams.com +1 (804) 932-1334
Jeff KiddDirector jkidd@harriswilliams.com +1 (804) 915-0178
James O’MalleyVice President jomalley@harriswilliams.com+1 (804) 915-0165
Jon Meredith Vice President jmeredith@harriswilliams.com+1 (804) 887-6085
EUROPE
Jeffery PerkinsManaging Director jperkins@harriswilliams.com+49 (0) 69 3650638 00
WHAT WE’RE READING
GLOBAL TELEMATICS MARKET TO BE WORTH $233B USD BY 2022
According to Netscribes, the global telematics market is expected to grow at acompound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5 percent between 2017 and 2022 toreach a global revenue of $233 billion USD by 2022. An increased need to trackvehicles in real time and monitor driver behavior, coupled with the rising demandfor onboard infotainment, is expected to drive the use of telematics technology.80-85 percent of the telematics solutions and devices that includes infotainmentand UBI cater to the automotive industry. North America is the highest revenue-generating region for the automotive telematics industry. The telematics market isat a mature stage in countries like the U.S. and Canada, where stable growth isforecasted until 2022.
Aftermarket News
RISE OF SELF-DRIVING VEHICLES WILL INCREASE CAR OWNERSHIP
When people predict the demise of car ownership, they are overlooking the realitythat the new autonomous automotive industry is not going to be just a re-hash oftoday’s car industry with driverless vehicles. Instead, the automotive industry of thefuture will be selling what could be considered an entirely new product: a widevariety of intelligent, self-guiding transportation robots. When cars become awidely used type of transportation robot, they will be cheap, ubiquitous, andversatile.
Several unique characteristics of autonomous vehicles will ensure that people willcontinue to buy their own cars: cost, personal belongings, frequent upgrades,instant accessibility, and diversity of form and function.
SingularityHub
THE HURDLES OF FIXING AUTOMATED VEHICLES
As automated vehicles slowly populate selected urban areas, the questionpersists: Who will repair and maintain these robotic and technological marvels?
"It's not something that immediately comes to mind when we think about all theresearch and development that comes with automated driving," says KayStepper, vice president of driver assistance systems and automated driving atRobert Bosch.
As a first mover in automated vehicle technology, Bosch is addressing a need thatmight be five or 10 years from reaching critical mass. But automakers, dealers,industry groups and academics agree that a significant gap exists in educationand marketing of careers for automated vehicle service technicians.
Classroom learning, reinforced by hands-on exposure to software and electricalintegration of sensors in automated vehicle prototypes, is creating jobopportunities beyond those that require four-year and graduate degrees. Boschhas hired about 10 Schoolcraft students with two-year associate degrees and iscontinuing their education.
Automotive News
TIRE INDUSTRY ADVANCEMENTS LAUDED AT TIRE TECH EXPO
Goodyear; Pirelli and C. S.p.A; Smithers Rapra; Versalis S.p.A.; and MegaRide S.r.l.received accolades for their achievements in tire technology, each taking homea Tire Technology International Award for Innovation and Excellence from the 2018Tire Technology Expo.
In addition, Ulf Sandberg, senior research scientist at the Swedish National Roadand Transport Research Institute (VTI), was presented with a Lifetime AchievementAward. He is one of the world's foremost experts on tire/road noise.
Goodyear's research and development efforts involving the use of soybean oil intire tread compounds earned the Akron-based tire maker the award in the"Environmental Achievement of the Year" category.
Rubber & Plastics News
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M&A TRANSACTIONS(1)
2
RECENT M&A TRANSACTIONS
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
*Denotes pending transactions
Date Target Business Description Acquirer
2/23/2018* Mavis Tire Supply LLC Operates as an online dealer of discount tires Express Oil Change LLC
2/20/2018 Behrens Supply Co. Supplies automotive and industrial parts Golden Gate Private Equity,
Inc.
2/9/2018* Fenix Parts, Inc. Engages in the recycling and resale of original equipment manufacturer
automotive products in the United States and Canada
Upstate Shredding LLC
2/6/2018 ATC Drivetrain LLC Provides remanufacturing and logistics solutions for automotive industry Crestv iew LLC
2/6/2018 Air Transport Components LLC Provides aircraft maintenance & repair serv ices includes electrical
accessories shop, flap transmission and gearbox shop, carriages and
track shop
Holder Family Investments
LLC
2/2/2018 Fore Transportation, Inc. Prov ides long-haul intermodal and truckload serv ices Universal Logistics Holdings,
Inc.
1/26/2018 Lucky's Lease, Inc. Manufactures and repairs trailer trucks General Finance Corp.
1/23/2018 Kamm Industries, Inc. Manufactures suspension seat and accessories for utility task vehicles
(UTV) and off-road vehicles
Bestop, Inc.
1/22/2018 Kodiak Products Co., Inc. Manufactures parts and equipment for transportation trailers Kinderhook Industries LLC
1/16/2018 Parkmobile Prov ides mobile parking serv ices in North America BMW Group
1/11/2018 AFG Allgemeine
Fahrzeugübernahme-
Gesellschaft mbH
Provides automotive distribution serv ices MOSOLF SE & Co. KG
1/11/2018 Continental Batteries Distributes aftermarket batteries Incline Equity Partners
1/11/2018 Jett Express Car Washes LLC Provides car cleaning serv ices with a tunnel express conveyor Zips Car Wash LLC
1/9/2018 Safe Fleet Prov ides safety products for fleet vehicles Oak Hill
1/9/2018 Tiger Accessories Group Supplies vehicle lighting and cleaning products in North America Hopkins
1/8/2018 Levin’s Auto Supply Supplies automotive aftermarket products to retailers and automotive
parts stores
Highline Aftermarket
1/8/2018 Piston Rings Komarov Designers and manufacturers of piston rings for the OEM and
aftermarket channels
Hastings Manufacturing
1/4/2018 SARL Giraud-Garage du Bois de
la Chaize
Provides automotive repair serv ices Giraud-Garage du Bois de la
Chaize SARL /Monnier/
1/4/2018 Truck Parts & Equipment, Inc. Supplies new and used semi trailers and truck equipment FleetPride, Inc.
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PUBLIC MARKETS OVERVIEW(1)
3
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
TEV / LTM EBITDA TEV / 2018P EBITDA
AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2014 – 2017) AVERAGE REVENUE GROWTH (2017 – 2019P)
AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2014 – 2017) AVERAGE EBITDA GROWTH (2017 – 2019P)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
8.6x
10.0x
10.7x
12.6x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
7.2x
10.1x
10.2x
11.9x
Suppliers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
0.3%
0.8%
3.1%
8.8%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
2.9%
5.1%
8.6%
9.7%
Vehicle Manufacturers
Suppliers
Distributors and Retailers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
(7.0%)
1.0%
6.0%
8.1%
Distributors and Retailers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
Suppliers
(9.0%)
2.6%
5.0%
5.7%
Distributors and Retailers
Vehicle Manufacturers
Suppliers
Dealerships and Services
Providers
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STOCK PRICE PERFORMANCE(1)
4
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
(Indexed to February 26th , 2017)
TRAILING TWELVE MONTHS
MEDIAN % CHANGE (1 MONTH) MEDIAN % CHANGE (12 MONTH)
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18
Suppliers Distributors and Retailers Dealerships and Service Providers
Vehicle Manufacturers S&P 500 Index
(8.8%)
(7.9%)
(7.8%)
(4.2%)
(3.2%)
Dealerships and
Service Providers
Vehicle
Manufacturers
Distributors and
Retailers
Suppliers
S&P 500
(5.4%)
(4.6%)
3.3%
16.1%
19.1%
Distributors and
Retailers
Suppliers
Dealerships and
Service Providers
S&P 500
Vehicle
Manufacturers
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OUR GROUP
Harris Williams & Co. is a leading advisor to the transportation and logistics M&A market. Our Transportation & LogisticsGroup serves companies in a broad range of attractive niches, including third-party logistics (3PL), truck, rail, marineand air transportation, transportation equipment, and the automotive and heavy duty vehicle market.
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
5
INDUSTRY UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
RECENTLY CLOSED T&L TRANSACTIONS
a portfolio company of
has been acquired byhas merged with
a portfolio company of a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
has merged with
an operating company of
in a recapitalization by
and
has been acquired by
a portfolio company ofa portfolio company of
is merging with
a portfolio company of
A portfolio company of
has been acquired by has been acquired by
a portfolio company ofa portfolio company of
has been acquired by
has been
recapitalized byhas been acquired by
DEEP EXPERIENCE ACROSS T&L SECTORS
MARINE TRANSPORTATION
NICHE TRANSPORTATION
TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT
RAIL & RAIL SERVICES
AUTOMOTIVE & HEAVY DUTY
VEHICLE
THIRD-PARTY LOGISTICS
AIR TRANSPORTATION
a portfolio company of
has been acquired by
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Energy, Power& Infrastructure
IndustrialsHealthcare & Life Sciences
Transportation & Logistics
Aerospace, Defense & Government
Services
Business Services
Building Products & Materials
Technology, Media & Telecom
Specialty Distribution
Consumer
HARRIS WILLIAMS & CO. OFFICE LOCATIONS
UNITED STATES EUROPE
NETWORK OFFICES
Beijing
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Transportation & Logistics
Harris Williams & Co. has a broad range of industry expertise, which creates powerful opportunities.Our clients benefit from our deep-sector experience, integrated industry intelligence andcollaboration across the firm, and our commitment to learning what makes them unique. For moreinformation, visit our website at www.harriswilliams.com/industries.
OUR FIRM
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
6
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES(1)
7
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Feb-17 Aug-17 Current 2018P 2019P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $12,820 $52.32 (7.0%) 26.0% $58.22 89.9% 7.2x 7.3x 7.9x 7.2x 6.8x
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 1,754 32.85 (15.1%) (20.9%) 44.50 73.8% 3.7x 3.6x 3.9x 4.4x 4.1x
Dorman Products, Inc. 2,429 73.45 (1.6%) (4.6%) 88.50 83.0% 13.4x 10.4x 12.2x 11.6x 10.8x
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 12,402 29.52 (16.8%) (16.5%) 37.20 79.4% 5.5x 5.4x 5.7x 5.0x 4.6x
Modine Manufacturing Company 1,681 24.70 10.3% 111.1% 25.75 95.9% 7.3x 9.2x 8.6x 7.5x 6.9x
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 460 22.00 (20.8%) (22.5%) 31.57 69.7% 9.5x 7.4x 8.6x 5.1x 4.9x
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 1,208 50.14 7.6% 2.9% 54.73 91.6% 9.6x 8.6x 9.5x 10.0x 9.1x
Tenneco Inc. 4,206 56.11 (4.2%) (14.0%) 67.93 82.6% 6.3x 6.7x 5.8x 4.5x 4.3x
Visteon Corporation 3,886 126.64 (3.5%) 34.5% 140.64 90.0% 9.2x 9.8x 10.4x 10.1x 9.3x
Median (4.2%) (4.6%) 83.0% 7.3x 7.4x 8.6x 7.2x 6.8x
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $9,118 $116.32 (3.8%) (26.1%) $158.69 73.3% 11.7x 8.8x 10.7x 9.4x 8.7x
AutoZone, Inc. 25,258 725.00 (7.8%) (1.1%) 797.89 90.9% 11.1x 8.5x 10.4x 10.2x 10.1x
Genuine Parts Company 17,000 94.53 (11.1%) (1.8%) 107.75 87.7% 12.4x 10.8x 14.3x 11.8x 10.8x
LKQ Corporation 15,590 40.10 (5.8%) 25.8% 43.86 91.4% 12.9x 12.5x 14.2x 12.5x 11.6x
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 25,677 254.13 (6.9%) (5.4%) 279.23 91.0% 14.5x 10.8x 13.1x 12.6x 11.9x
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 88 2.16 (12.0%) (35.1%) 4.13 52.2% 13.1x 13.0x 10.2x 5.9x NA
Uni-Select Inc. 1,202 18.53 (17.1%) (28.4%) 27.36 67.7% 11.3x 10.0x 10.1x 8.8x 8.4x
Median (7.8%) (5.4%) 87.7% 12.4x 10.8x 10.7x 10.2x 10.4x
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $3,137 $68.90 (8.3%) 3.3% $76.40 90.2% 9.9x 8.8x 9.6x 9.6x 9.9x
AutoNation, Inc. 11,593 52.46 (14.4%) 12.0% 62.02 84.6% 9.3x 9.3x 12.5x 12.9x 12.2x
Boyd Group Income Fund 1,911 82.55 (1.1%) 24.2% 87.13 94.7% 14.1x 14.6x 18.4x 14.0x 12.2x
CarMax, Inc. 24,144 62.76 (12.3%) (4.7%) 77.64 80.8% NM NM NM 17.4x 16.7x
Copart, Inc. 11,606 46.77 4.0% 58.6% 47.65 98.1% 15.1x 14.7x 19.2x 17.5x 15.7x
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 4,441 75.65 (4.5%) (4.9%) 84.47 89.6% 10.5x 9.9x 10.3x 11.1x 10.6x
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 10,852 51.42 (5.9%) 15.5% 55.19 93.2% 13.1x 12.1x 13.1x 11.9x 11.1x
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 5,703 111.12 (11.3%) 12.7% 127.99 86.8% 12.0x 11.7x 11.8x 11.6x 11.0x
Monro Inc 2,162 53.10 (16.4%) (9.2%) 64.15 82.8% 14.0x 11.7x 12.8x 11.5x 10.3x
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 10,008 47.69 (11.4%) (7.8%) 54.83 87.0% 14.5x 13.3x 14.2x 12.5x 12.8x
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 3,430 20.25 (8.8%) (10.4%) 23.25 87.1% 10.8x 10.3x 11.1x 11.4x 11.2x
Median (8.8%) 3.3% 87.1% 12.6x 11.7x 12.6x 11.9x 11.2x
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES(1)
8
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
Stock Performance
Stock Price Change from 52-Week TEV / EBITDA EBITDA
($ in millions except per share data) TEV Current Prior Month Prior Year High % of High Feb-17 Aug-17 Current 2018P 2019P
Automotive Aftermarket
TEV / LTM EBITDA as of
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $171,646 $107.05 (8.2%) 20.2% $119.86 89.3% 7.9x 9.7x 10.5x 9.4x 9.0x
Daimler AG 219,892 86.59 (6.9%) 19.1% 94.70 91.4% 6.9x 7.0x 8.5x 8.8x 8.6x
Ford Motor Company 158,265 10.70 (7.5%) (14.2%) 13.48 79.4% 12.5x 12.2x 12.4x 12.4x 12.4x
General Motors Company 129,781 40.91 (5.2%) 10.9% 46.76 87.5% 5.3x 5.1x 5.5x 6.9x 7.0x
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 14,313 46.61 (14.8%) (17.6%) 63.40 73.5% 13.1x 12.8x 12.8x 14.1x 13.2x
Navistar International Corporation 7,977 39.16 (15.6%) 46.8% 47.73 82.0% 13.4x 14.6x 11.4x 10.6x 9.4x
Oshkosh Corp 6,800 83.47 (12.4%) 26.1% 100.26 83.3% 10.4x 9.9x 10.2x 9.7x 8.8x
PACCAR Inc 30,316 71.32 (7.6%) 5.8% 79.69 89.5% 9.9x 9.4x 8.8x 11.5x 11.3x
Toyota Motor Corp. 344,040 68.31 (2.2%) 19.0% 70.97 96.3% 8.9x 9.1x 9.9x 10.8x 10.2x
Volkswagen AG Pref 256,957 199.96 (11.8%) 33.9% 236.59 84.5% 5.3x 5.9x 6.7x 5.7x 5.5x
Median (7.9%) 19.1% 86.0% 9.4x 9.5x 10.0x 10.1x 9.2x
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PUBLIC COMPARABLES(1)
9
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P '14-17 '17-19P 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P '14-17 '17-19P
Automotive Aftermarket
Suppliers
BorgWarner Inc. $8,304 $8,025 $9,071 $9,796 $9,796 $11,321 5.7% 7.5% $1,385 $1,330 $1,507 $1,626 $1,626 $1,906 5.5% 8.3%
Cooper Tire & Rubber Company 3,421 2,959 2,925 2,851 2,851 2,997 (5.9%) 2.5% 436 541 592 447 447 443 0.8% (0.5%)
Dorman Products, Inc. 751 803 860 903 903 1,028 6.3% 6.7% 153 162 188 198 198 226 9.0% 6.6%
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company 18,138 16,443 15,158 15,377 15,377 16,420 (5.4%) 3.3% 2,251 2,349 2,520 2,178 2,178 2,641 (1.1%) 10.1%
Modine Manufacturing Company 1,496 1,353 1,503 2,055 2,177 2,311 11.2% 6.1% 110 114 124 191 224 243 20.1% 12.8%
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. 302 369 421 437 475 498 13.1% 6.8% 38 49 67 77 90 95 26.8% 11.0%
Standard Motor Products, Inc. 980 972 1,058 1,116 1,116 1,179 4.4% 2.8% 113 92 121 127 127 132 3.8% 2.1%
Tenneco Inc. 8,420 8,209 8,599 9,274 9,274 10,193 3.3% 4.8% 752 781 764 722 722 987 (1.3%) 16.9%
Visteon Corporation 7,509 3,245 3,161 3,146 3,146 3,453 (25.2%) 4.8% 663 265 323 372 372 415 (17.5%) 5.6%
Total $49,322 $42,377 $42,756 $44,955 $45,115 $49,400 0.8% 5.0% $5,902 $5,684 $6,206 $5,938 $5,984 $7,088 5.1% 8.1%
Distributors and Retailers
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $9,844 $9,737 $9,568 $9,374 $9,374 $9,568 (1.6%) 1.0% $1,244 $1,147 $1,068 $849 $849 $1,034 (12.0%) 10.4%
AutoZone, Inc. 9,475 10,187 10,636 10,889 10,889 11,762 4.7% 3.9% 2,089 2,223 2,358 2,403 2,403 2,524 4.8% 2.5%
Genuine Parts Company 15,342 15,280 15,340 16,309 16,309 18,814 2.1% 7.4% 1,273 1,266 1,217 1,187 1,187 1,534 (2.3%) 13.6%
LKQ Corporation 6,740 7,193 8,584 9,737 9,737 11,172 13.0% 7.1% 790 852 1,007 1,098 1,098 1,337 11.6% 10.4%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. 7,216 7,967 8,593 8,978 8,978 10,003 7.6% 5.6% 1,465 1,743 1,917 1,959 1,959 2,163 10.2% 5.1%
U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. 284 291 304 306 316 0 2.6% (100.0%) 5 6 10 14 15 0 43.3% (100.0%)
Uni-Select Inc. 1,784 1,355 1,197 1,448 1,448 1,814 (6.7%) 11.9% 104 94 107 118 118 141 4.6% 9.1%
Total $50,685 $52,010 $54,221 $57,041 $57,050 $63,134 3.1% (9.0%) $6,968 $7,331 $7,684 $7,629 $7,630 $8,733 8.6% (7.0%)
Dealerships and Service Providers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $5,868 $6,588 $6,528 $6,457 $6,457 $6,636 3.2% 1.4% $313 $331 $334 $325 $325 $319 1.3% (0.9%)
AutoNation, Inc. 19,109 20,862 21,609 21,535 21,535 22,129 4.1% 1.4% 909 998 971 926 926 953 0.6% 1.5%
Boyd Group Income Fund 764 918 1,047 1,212 1,409 1,588 16.6% 14.5% 77 79 94 111 136 157 12.9% 19.1%
CarMax, Inc. 14,269 15,150 15,875 17,295 18,300 19,695 6.6% 6.7% 724 804 713 1,341 1,397 1,447 22.8% 3.9%
Copart, Inc. 1,163 1,146 1,268 1,448 1,448 1,851 7.6% 13.1% 363 394 455 540 540 722 14.1% 15.7%
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. 9,938 10,633 10,888 11,130 11,130 11,465 3.8% 1.5% 375 408 419 433 433 413 4.9% (2.3%)
KAR Auction Services, Inc. 2,365 2,640 3,150 3,458 3,458 3,879 13.5% 5.9% 574 640 740 831 831 980 13.1% 8.6%
Lithia Motors, Inc. Class A 5,390 7,864 8,678 10,087 10,087 11,657 23.2% 7.5% 266 377 405 483 483 514 22.0% 3.2%
Monro Inc 894 944 1,022 1,129 1,188 1,302 8.1% 7.4% 147 161 162 177 191 210 6.5% 8.8%
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 17,177 19,285 20,119 21,387 21,387 22,145 7.6% 1.8% 574 645 665 707 707 828 7.2% 8.3%
Sonic Automotive, Inc. Class A 9,197 9,624 9,732 9,867 9,867 10,139 2.4% 1.4% 294 307 319 310 310 310 1.8% (0.1%)
Total $86,134 $95,653 $99,915 $105,004 $106,264 $112,486 8.8% 5.7% $4,617 $5,143 $5,277 $6,183 $6,278 $6,853 9.7% 6.0%
PAGE |
PUBLIC COMPARABLES(1)
10
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
Revenue Revenue Growth EBITDA EBITDA Growth
($ in millions) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P '14-17 '17-19P 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P 2019P '14-17 '17-19P
Automotive Aftermarket
Vehicle Manufacturers
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $106,648 $102,215 $104,163 $121,551 $125,301 $129,676 4.5% 3.3% $21,734 $19,303 $19,370 $18,341 $18,289 $19,109 (5.5%) 2.1%
Daimler AG 172,268 165,747 169,537 185,353 185,353 218,582 2.5% 8.6% 25,517 25,668 26,177 25,869 25,869 26,424 0.5% 1.1%
Ford Motor Company 144,077 149,558 151,800 156,776 156,776 146,337 2.9% (3.4%) 11,324 15,079 12,296 12,810 12,810 12,817 4.2% 0.0%
General Motors Company 155,929 152,356 166,380 145,588 145,588 145,940 (2.3%) 0.1% 10,160 15,518 20,671 23,745 23,745 18,076 32.7% (12.8%)
Harley-Davidson, Inc. 6,229 5,995 5,996 5,647 5,647 4,977 (3.2%) (6.1%) 1,452 1,330 1,240 1,120 1,120 1,071 (8.3%) (2.2%)
Navistar International Corporation 10,806 10,140 8,111 8,570 8,570 9,929 (7.4%) 7.6% 295 567 474 658 658 841 NM 13.0%
Oshkosh Corp 6,808 6,098 6,279 6,830 6,830 7,719 0.1% 6.3% 622 523 518 626 626 786 0.2% 12.0%
PACCAR Inc 18,997 19,115 17,005 19,469 19,469 21,152 0.8% 4.2% 2,899 3,198 2,939 3,433 3,433 2,615 5.8% (12.7%)
Toyota Motor Corp. 247,980 236,533 255,078 274,095 279,190 284,946 3.4% 2.0% 38,164 36,457 34,060 30,193 31,042 32,835 (7.5%) 4.3%
Volkswagen AG Pref 268,549 236,524 240,340 286,103 298,734 308,393 2.1% 3.8% 36,343 26,777 37,788 41,383 45,401 46,043 4.4% 5.5%
Total $1,138,291 $1,084,281 $1,124,689 $1,209,983 $1,231,459 $1,277,650 0.3% 2.6% $148,510 $144,420 $155,533 $158,178 $162,994 $160,617 2.9% 1.0%
PAGE |
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
SOURCES
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS
1. FactSet.
2. MergerMarket.
3. Pitchbook.
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DISCLOSURES
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AUTOMOTIVE AFTERMARKET SECTOR UPDATE │ FEBRUARY 2018
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