to obtain slr records

To obtain SLR records

1. Tide gauge records (RSLR)

2. Find something that “keeps up” with sea level (coral reefs, marshes) RSLR -- worry

about crustal movements! GPS data.

3. Measure absolute SLR from satellite data (average over many points - tides, dynamic

ocean topography)

Sea level change

Volume of ocean basins

Mass of water

Volume of water

Sea Level Change Over the Last 500 Million Years

Sea Level Change Over the Last 1 Million Years

Sea Level Rise Over the Last 24,000 Years

Sea Level Rise Over the Last 24,000 Years

Sea Level Rise Over the Last 8,000 Years

Average Sea Level Rise Over the Last 120 Years

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Relative Sea Level Change Based on Tide Gage Data

RSL Change: Juneau, AKAn Example of Post Glacial Rebound

Eustatic Sea Level Rise Estimates

Sea Level Rise Rate (mm/yr)

Years No. of Tide

Stations

Investigators

1.43 1881-1980 152 Barnett2.27 1930-1980 152 Barnett1.2 1880-1982 130 Gornitz &2.4 1920-1970 40 Peltier &

1.75 1900-1979 84 Trupin & 1.8 1880-1980 21 Douglas, et al

1.62 1807-1988 213 Unal &

Subsidence

• Subsidence can be substantial exceeding the eustatic component significantlyLong Beach, CA: > 6 m due to hydrocarbon extractionTokyo: 3.5 m due to water extractionOsaka: > 2 m due to water extractionCoastal Louisiana: Up to 1 m per century due to natural and anthropogenic causes

Is Sea Level Accelerating?

(1) There are Indications of Sea Level Acceleration Although They Are Weak and do not Appear to be Increasing(2) Probably Won’t Know About Anthropogenic Effects Definitively for 30 or More Years

Long Island Sound Relative Sea level Rise Curves

Varekamp and Thomas

IPCC Estimates of Future SLR

Date of IPCC Prediction

Time Period (Years)

IPCC Sea Level Rise

Ranges

IPCC Mid Range Estimate

1995 1990 to 2100

15 cm to 95 cm

50 cm

2001 1990 to 2100

8 cm to 88 cm 49 cm

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Istanbul

LagosLima

Buenos Aires Rio de JaneiroMadras

KarachiJakarta

Calcutta

MumbaiBangkok

ManilaShanghai

Osaka

Tokyo

SeoulTianjinDhaka

New York

Los Angeles

Projected Coastal Megacities:

2010 By 2100, tens of millions/year will have to respond to coastal flooding; Most vulnerable regions are South and South-East Asia; Africa; Carribean; Indian Ocean Islands; Pacific Ocean

Islands.

Example from Holland - flood disaster of 1953

Not Good, about 2300people drowned

The ‘DELTA WORKS’ (dunglish)

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