time series solar radiation forecasting
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Presented by:
LUIS MARTÍN POMARES
ENERGY DEPARTAMENTRenewable energy division
5rd Experts Meeting of the IEA SHC Task “Solar Resource Knowledge Management”
&MESoR Meeting
Wels, Austria9 – 11 June 2008
Global solar radiation forecasting with non-lineal statistical techniques and qualitative predictions
from Spanish National Weather Service
2
OUTLOOK
1. TIME SERIES GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION HALF DAILY PROPERTIES
2. CLEARNESS INDEX PREDICTIONS
3. LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
4. LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS
5. CONCLUSIONS
3
TIME SERIES GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION HALF DAILY PROPERTIES
Global solar irradiance half daily time series :
Removing stationarity from time series: Using clearness index. Using lost component variable. Subtracting each value mean value of 2d+1 days. Removing from time series anual armonic (first armonic from
fourier analysis). If the time series obtained is not stationary a good
way to achieve so is differencing consecutive days.
Non StationaryNon Gaussian DataNon Linear
Data Preprocessing
4
Madrid RRN AEMet
Murcia RRN AEMet
2.5
W 0.0
CLEARNESS INDEX HALF DAILY PREDICTIONS
MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet
1 2 3 4 5 66
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Horizonte Predicción (Semidías)
Mej
ora
% R
MSD
Madrid: Mejora frente Persistencia
MS(2)-AR(1)/PersistenciaNN(10)/PersistenciaANFIS(6)/Persistencia
1 2 3 4 5 66
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Horizonte Predicción (Semidías)
Murcia: Mejora frente Persistencia
MS(2)-AR(1)/PersistenciaNN(10)/PersistenciaANFIS(6)/Persistencia
CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain)
IMPROVEMENT OVER PERSISTENCE IN TERMS OF %RMSDmod1 el
persistence
ierrorimprovement
ierror
5
CLEARNESS INDEX HALF DAILY PREDICTIONS
1 2 3 4 5 622
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Horizonte Predicción (Semidías)
%RM
SD P
redi
cció
n Se
mid
iaria
Kt
NN(1)NN(2)NN(3)NN(4)NN(5)NN(6)NN(7)NN(8)NN(9)NN(10)PER
MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet
1 2 3 4 5 622
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Horizonte Predicción (Semidías)
NN(1)NN(2)NN(3)NN(4)NN(5)NN(6)NN(7)NN(8)NN(9)NN(10)PER
CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain)
RMSD FOR BEST MODEL: NN(10)
6
CLEARNESS INDEX HALF DAILY PREDICTIONS
CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain)
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
KT Semidiario Observado
KT
Se
mid
iari
o P
rev
isto
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10
1
2
3
4
5
6
Kt Semidiario
7
LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 7000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Half Day
Wm
-2
Differencing day by day
8
LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
Differencies
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Half Day
Lo
st C
om
po
nen
t W
m-2
9
LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
Half Day
Dif
f L
ost
Co
mp
on
ent
Wm
-2
-4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 40000
0.5
1
1.5x 10-3
Num
ber o
f Sam
ples
Diff Lost Component
10
LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet
1 2 3 4 5 622
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Prediction Horizon Half Daily
%R
MS
D
1 2 3 4 5 620
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Prediction Horizon Half Daily
NN(1)NN(2)
NN(3)
NN(4)
NN(5)
NN(6)NN(7)
NN(8)
NN(9)
NN(10)Persistencia
11
LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
MADRID RRN AEMet
1 2 3 4 5 66
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Horizonte Predicción (Semidías)
Mej
ora
% R
MSD
Madrid: Mejora frente Persistencia
MS(2)-AR(1)/PersistenciaNN(10)/PersistenciaANFIS(6)/Persistencia
CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain)
IMPROVEMENT OVER PERSISTENCE IN TERMS OF %RMSD
1 2 3 4 5 60.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
Prediction Horizon
Impr
ovem
ent %
RMSE
NN/PER
12
LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
MURCIA RRN AEMet
1 2 3 4 5 66
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Horizonte Predicción (Semidías)
Murcia: Mejora frente Persistencia
MS(2)-AR(1)/PersistenciaNN(10)/PersistenciaANFIS(6)/Persistencia
CIES2008, June 17-21,2008, Vigo (Spain)
IMPROVEMENT OVER PERSISTENCE IN TERMS OF %RMSD
1 2 3 4 5 60.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
0.22
0.24
0.26
0.28
0.3
Horizon Prediction Half Daily
Impr
ovem
ent %
RM
SD
NN/PER
13
LOST COMPONENT PREDICTIONS
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
14
AEMet Synoptic Predictions by Site
Total Cloud CoverECMWF
HIRLAM/AEMetPROMETEOWRF/MM5….
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
Energy Values
15
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS
MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet
1 2 3 4 5 6
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Prediction Horizon Half Daily
%R
MS
D
NN(1)NN(2)NN(3)NN(4)NN(5)NN(6)NN(7)NN(8)NN(9)NN(10)PER
1 2 3 4 5 6
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Prediction Horizon Half Daily
%R
MS
D
16
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
MADRID RRN AEMet MURCIA RRN AEMet
LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS
1 2 3 4 5 60.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
Horizon Prediction (Half Daily)
Imp
rov
em
en
t %
RM
SD
NN(10)/PER
1 2 3 4 5 60.6
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
Horizon Prediction (Half Daily)
Imp
rove
men
t %
RM
SD
NN(10)/PER
17
LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
18
EUROSUN2008, October 7-10, Lisbon (Portugal)
LOST COMPONENT + QUALITATIVE PREDICTIONS
MADRID RRN AEMet
1 2 3 4 5 6
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Prediction Horizon Half Daily
%R
MS
D
1 2 3 4 5 6
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Prediction Horizon Half Daily
%R
MS
D
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