thinksmallcell analyst forecast spotlight 2014

ThinkSmallCell  Webinar  Series  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Maravedis-­‐Rethink  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Agenda  

•  IntroducHon,  David  Chambers,  ThinkSmallCell  

•  Analyst  Forecasts  and  AssumpHons  •  Caroline  Gabriel,  Maravedis-­‐Rethink  •  Joe  Madden,  Mobile  Experts  

•  QuesHon  and  Answer  Session  

•  Conclusion  

Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

3  

The  different  categories  of  small  cells  

Enterprise  Residen,al   Urban   Rural  

Small  Cells  

Small  Cells  Femtocells  OR  

4  

3G  Licensed  Spectrum  

4G/LTE  Licensed  Spectrum  

Unlicensed  Spectrum  

Planned  (locaHon  pre-­‐determined  prior  to  site  build)  

Unplanned  (locaHon  unknown  unHl  operaHonal)  

Planned  vs  Unplanned  

Carrier    Wi-­‐Fi  

Enterprise  Wi-­‐Fi  

ResidenHal  Wi-­‐Fi  

LTE  Urban  

Enterprise  Small  Cells  

ResidenHal  Small  Cells  

3G  Rural  Small  cells  

3G  Urban  

LTE  Rural  Small  cells  

ResidenHal  Small  Cells  

Enterprise  Small  Cells  

5  

Issues  with  small  cell  forecasts?  •  Contrast  between  residenHal  femto  vs  planned  Small  Cells  

–  Tens  of  millions  of  residenHal  femtocells  vs  few  million  Small  Cells    

•  It’s  always  “next  year”?  –  How  confident  can  we  be  that  Small  Cell  uptake  isn’t  a  false  dawn?  

•  Volume  vs  revenue?  –  Which  sector  of  Small  Cells  has  most  revenue  associated  with  it  

•  What  impact  will  Carrier  Wi-­‐Fi  have?  

•  How  do  Small  Cell  forecasts  differ  between  radio  technologies?  –  3G  UMTS,  3G  CDMA,  4G/LTE,  TD-­‐LTE,  MulH-­‐Mode  3G/LTE/Wi-­‐Fi  

Analyst  Viewpoint  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Maravedis-­‐Rethink  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Public access small cells forecast

January 2014

Copyright  ©  Maravedis  Inc  2014.    www.maravedis-­‐bwa.com  

0  

1,000,000  

2,000,000  

3,000,000  

4,000,000  

5,000,000  

6,000,000  

7,000,000  

8,000,000  

2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018  

Units  Shipp

ed  ann

ually  

Outdoor   Indoor    

Trends and drivers

January 2014

Copyright  ©  Maravedis  Inc  2014.  

 www.maravedis-­‐bwa.com  

Changing  focus:    Indoor    Wi-­‐Fi  integraHon    Managed  services    Enterprise    Added  value  services  

 •     MulHmode  and  new  ecosystem  are  criHcal      •     SHll  obstacles  but  they  are  changing  

0  

1,000,000  

2,000,000  

3,000,000  

4,000,000  

5,000,000  

6,000,000  

7,000,000  

8,000,000  

2014   2015   2016   2017   2018  

No  of  sites  

Cellular  only   Dual-­‐mode  cellular   WiFi/cellular   WiFi  only  

Analyst  Viewpoint  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Maravedis-­‐Rethink  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Mobile  Experts  LLC  §  Founded  in  2002  §  6  Analysts  +  office  staff  §  Analysts  are  20-­‐year  experts  in  their  respective  topics  §  Focused  exclusively  on  mobile  radio  equipment  

Small  Cell  Forecast  

§  Residential  Femtocells—not  a  compelling  ROI  for  operators  §  Enterprise  Small  Cells  will  grow  with  new  business  models  

§  Big  potential  but  slow  growth  due  to  a  new  business  model  

§  Carrier-­‐deployed  Small  Cells  will  grow  along  with  data  demand  

Annu

al  

Methodology  §  Top-­‐down  inputs:          

§  32  mobile  operators  §  Deployment  history  and  plans  

§  Bottom-­‐up  inputs:        §  18  semiconductor  suppliers  §  Quarterly  shipment  updates  §  Tracking  by  band,  by  power  

level  

§  Cost  Modeling:        §  We  compare  TCO  models  with  

operators  on  $/bit    to  understand  their  deployment  priorities    

13  

How  closely  do  these  analyst  forecast  match  your  own  predicHons?  

1)  Analysts  are  too  opHmisHc/too  high  2)  About  right  3)  Analysts  are  too  pessimisHc  4)  I  have  absolutely  no  idea  5)  Too  many  uncertainHes  to  predict  with  any  confidence  

Audience  Poll  -­‐  QuesHon  

14  

Audience  Poll  -­‐  Response  

Q&A  Session  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Maravedis-­‐Rethink  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

Closing  Comments  Small  Cell  Analyst  Forecast  Spotlight  

 David  Chambers  Founder  and  Senior  Analyst  ThinkSmallCell  

Caroline  Gabriel  Head  of  Research  Maravedis-­‐Rethink  

Joe  Madden  Founder  and  Principal  Analyst  Mobile  Experts  

17  

•  More  resources/informaHon  at  ThinkSmallCell.com  –  Sign  up  for  our  free  monthly  newsleeer  –  www.thinksmallcell.com/webinars      

•  Small  Cell  Forum  documents  –  scf.io  

•  Contact  today’s  analysts  –  ThinkSmallCell:            www.thinksmallcell.com  –  Mobile  Experts:            www.mobile-­‐experts.net  –  Maravedis-­‐Rethink:          www.maravedis-­‐rethink.com  

More  informaHon  

Our  Next  Webinar  

Small  Cells:  Going  to  Volume  •  Speakers  include  

– Nick  Johnson,  Founder  and  CTO,  ip.access  –  Simon  Brown,  CEO,  ip.access  

•  Thursday  13th  February  2014  –  8am  PST/11am  EST/4pm  GMT/5pm  CET  

•  heps://aeendee.gotowebinar.com/register/1481253624939123458