the road ahead adaptation and resilience in uncertain times
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The Road AheadAdaptation and Resilience in Uncertain
Times
Visions of the FutureVisions of the Future
"We look at the past through the "We look at the past through the prism of the present and try to prism of the present and try to discern the future." discern the future."
Holocaust historian, Lucy DavidowiczHolocaust historian, Lucy Davidowicz
People tend to interpret the past and People tend to interpret the past and project onto the future a view that project onto the future a view that reinforces their current beliefs.reinforces their current beliefs.
The JetsonsThe Jetsons
We don’t need to change BAU as We don’t need to change BAU as technology will find the answer. Human technology will find the answer. Human Progress is continuous.Progress is continuous.
Popular with people who tend to support Popular with people who tend to support the status quo.the status quo.
The Progress ParadigmThe Progress Paradigm
The idea of perpetual progress is The idea of perpetual progress is relatively newrelatively new
Medieval/Renaissance period looked Medieval/Renaissance period looked back to the classical period as the back to the classical period as the pinnacle of development from which pinnacle of development from which mankind had fallenmankind had fallen
The Enlightenment – we know more The Enlightenment – we know more about the world than anyone before about the world than anyone before us and we are learning more every us and we are learning more every day.day.
A Linear View of HistoryA Linear View of History
Judeo Christian world view has a Judeo Christian world view has a beginning, middle and end.beginning, middle and end.
Non-western religious views tend to Non-western religious views tend to be cyclicalbe cyclical
A Linear view not only involves divine A Linear view not only involves divine providence in our lives but providence in our lives but incorporates the idea of moving to incorporates the idea of moving to some final destinysome final destiny
1919thth Century Progress Century Progress
Misinterpretation Misinterpretation of Darwin – of Darwin – species evolve to species evolve to more complex, more complex, better formsbetter forms
Evolution is not Evolution is not linear or linear or hierarchical but hierarchical but we are we are conditioned to conditioned to see it that waysee it that way
Capitalism – freedom of thought and act frees Capitalism – freedom of thought and act frees humanity from constraints and anything is humanity from constraints and anything is possible. possible. – Coupled with inventions for mass production and Coupled with inventions for mass production and
the resources to make that production possiblethe resources to make that production possible
Marxism – social evolution towards a socialist Marxism – social evolution towards a socialist ideal was inevitable ideal was inevitable – possible due to the technological advances of the possible due to the technological advances of the
industrial revolutionindustrial revolution– Nature should be exploited for the good of allNature should be exploited for the good of all
2020thth Century Progress Century ProgressMore Bigger Better FasterMore Bigger Better Faster
Increased technological developments Increased technological developments allowed for even faster extraction of natural allowed for even faster extraction of natural resourcesresources
Focus on time saving – resulting in massive Focus on time saving – resulting in massive increase in productivityincrease in productivity
Increase in productivity resulted in goods Increase in productivity resulted in goods available for less cost – more people could available for less cost – more people could buy more stuffbuy more stuff
Advertising, especially after WWII massively Advertising, especially after WWII massively increased demand for manufactured goodsincreased demand for manufactured goods
Components of the Progress Components of the Progress ParadigmParadigm
Technology will keep improvingTechnology will keep improving Technology will solve our problemsTechnology will solve our problems Humanity will overcome war, Humanity will overcome war,
disease, povertydisease, poverty If we run out of one resource we will If we run out of one resource we will
find another to replace itfind another to replace it Going backward or becoming less Going backward or becoming less
complex is unthinkable.complex is unthinkable.
By mid century the Progress By mid century the Progress paradigm began to be questioned – paradigm began to be questioned – the result was the environmental the result was the environmental movement and environmental movement and environmental regulationregulation
Policy makers still continue to Policy makers still continue to promise continued growth and no promise continued growth and no diminishment of “The American Way diminishment of “The American Way of Life.”of Life.”
Progress
Resources
The Progress Paradigm rests on the foundation of available natural resources.
Progress Depleted Resources
As early as 1798, Thomas Malthus argues that the party couldn’t go on forever. However, advances and agriculture and fossil fuels changed everything because they made it possible to grow more food to support an every growing population.
Technology seemed to provide the answer to the Malthusian dilemma
History of Energy Use in the US
A finite system A finite system cannot support cannot support infinite growthinfinite growth
Mad MaxMad Max
Overpopulation and over use of resources will Overpopulation and over use of resources will create a Hobbesian, dog-eat-dog future and the create a Hobbesian, dog-eat-dog future and the collapse of civilization as we know it.collapse of civilization as we know it.
Appeals to people less invested in the status quo Appeals to people less invested in the status quo (with lots of guns and fast cars?) who favor an (with lots of guns and fast cars?) who favor an individualist perspective. (Right wing – anti-individualist perspective. (Right wing – anti-establishment)establishment)
HobbitonHobbiton
The exploitation of the earth and its resources will cause The exploitation of the earth and its resources will cause economic and social collapse but the current system will economic and social collapse but the current system will be replaced with a sustainable & more simple lifestylebe replaced with a sustainable & more simple lifestyle
Appeals to people less invested in the status quo who Appeals to people less invested in the status quo who oppose the current globalized, corporate centered oppose the current globalized, corporate centered economy and come from a communalist (Left-wing anti economy and come from a communalist (Left-wing anti establishment)establishment)
The RaptureThe Rapture
All the problems we now face are signs that the end All the problems we now face are signs that the end of History is near. The faithful will be raptured up to of History is near. The faithful will be raptured up to heaven, leaving the unfaithful to face the tribulations heaven, leaving the unfaithful to face the tribulations and the final battle between good and evil. Our use and the final battle between good and evil. Our use of resources really doesn’t make any differenceof resources really doesn’t make any difference
Appeals to some Evangelical Christians but a group Appeals to some Evangelical Christians but a group which has been a very politically influential minority.which has been a very politically influential minority.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
Physicist Neils Bohr
“Earth Day is a holiday for liars….”
The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate...
Paul Ehrlich – The Population Bomb - 1960
Alan Caruba 4/21/08
The Hazards of Specific
Predictions
Cassandra Syndrome Cassandra – someone who warns
of impending disaster. Mythical Trojan prophetess given the gift of prophesy but cursed that no one would ever believe her.
'Cassandra dilemma' - one can see the most likely outcome of current trends and can warn people about what is happening, but the vast majority can not, or will not respond, and later if catastrophe occurs, they may even blame you, as if your prediction set the disaster in motion.
What people often forget is What people often forget is that Cassandra was rightthat Cassandra was right
Tectonic StressesTectonic StressesThomas Homer-Dixon- Thomas Homer-Dixon- The Upside of DownThe Upside of Down
Population stress arising from differences in the population growth rates between rich and poor societies, and from the spiraling growth of megacities in poor countries;
Energy stress —above all from the increasing scarcity of conventional oil;
Environmental stress from worsening damage to our land, water, forests, and fisheries;
Climate stress from changes in the makeup of our atmosphere;
Economic stress resulting from instabilities in the global economic system and ever-widening income gaps between rich and poor people
Stresses are interconnected Stresses are interconnected and cannot be viewed and cannot be viewed
separatelyseparately
Population
Peak oil Rich/Poor
Environment
Climate
Synchronous Failure
Many things going wrong at once Interconnected stresses that could
be manageable in isolation become unmanageable in combination
Hurricanes + Lack of Infrastructure Investment+ Impoverished population
+Governmental Incompetence
9.0 Earthquake + 100ft Tsunami + partial nuclear meltdown
Heat and drought + increased development + dead trees
Policy Pyramid
Non- Linear Change and Black Swan Events
Change is not always incremental it can be abrupt, unexpected and severe
Basing expectations on what has been does not always prepare for what may be– “A turkey that is fed for 1,000 days by a
butcher, and every day confirms to the turkey and the turkey’s economics department and the turkey’s risk management department and the turkey’s analytical department that the butcher loves turkeys, and every day brings more confidence to the statement.”
Nassim Taleb
How do we plan for uncertainty?
Insurance – only 2% of people experience a fire in their house in their lifetime but everyone with a mortgage has insurance.
Tsunami Preparation in Humboldt County– Planning and Education– Coordination and Practice
Adaptation and Resilience
Adaptation – a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress.
Resilience – the ability to handle dynamic, unexpected changes without threatening to collapse. The capacity to absorb shocks and adapt to them.
Where we are now
Adaptation and Resilie
nce
Where we need to go
So… why aren’t we taking action to increase resiliency?
Roadblocks
Psychological Technical Economic Political
Psychological Roadblocks
“An out of context problem” A Preference for optimism Deferring to Authority Focus on the present rather than the
future Denial
– Existential – It’s not happening– Consequential – OK its happening but its not
serious– Fatalistic – OK its happening, its serious, but
we can’t do anything about it
Technological Roadblocks
There is at present no substitute for fossil fuels that has the adequate– Scale– Storage– Transportability
Economic Roadblocks
People in the developing world seek to reach the levels of consumption of the developed world
Transition can be pricy! A “healthy economy” requires continued
high levels of resource consumption Adaptation and resilience requires
spending money at a time where austerity it a stated solution to the economic crisis
Political Roadblocks
Environmental Issues have become wedge issues in the US – partisan sorting
Both state and Federal Government are in policy gridlock
No one wins elections by delivering bad news
Can we get there from here?
Social Change 1.0Social Change 1.0
Command and Control (Sticks)Command and Control (Sticks)– Government laws and regulations
Financial incentives Financial incentives ProtestsProtests Problems with the current modelProblems with the current model
– Laws tend to be incremental (slow small steps)– Incentives only work if people are inclined to
do something anyway– Protests point out what is wrong but do not
create what is right
“Not only do we have to re-invent the world, we have to re-invent the process by which we re-invent the world.” – David Gershon Social Change 2.0
The Starting point for change is the individual
We change our institutions they don’t change us
People need a vision of where they want to go to begin the journey
These changes can be accelerated and reinforced with the right laws and financial incentives, but the process begins with us.
Bottom Up not Top down
Social Change 2.0Social Change 2.0
Develop a vision of what you want to see Develop a vision of what you want to see happenhappen
Enlist the support and “buy in” by local Enlist the support and “buy in” by local government through a like minded government through a like minded individualindividual– Use their knowledge of the area to know how to
design the program– Use their status to overcome potential
bureaucratic obstacles Recruit members of the community and Recruit members of the community and
train them in the modeltrain them in the model
From the individual……From the individual……
““Taking personal responsibility to Taking personal responsibility to make the needed changes within make the needed changes within ourselves and our communities is the ourselves and our communities is the foundation for changing our foundation for changing our institutions, not the other way institutions, not the other way around.”around.”
…………To the collectiveTo the collective Overcoming the tendency of society to hold on Overcoming the tendency of society to hold on
to the status quoto the status quo Overcoming denial that there is a flaw in the Overcoming denial that there is a flaw in the
current paradigmcurrent paradigm
For all the effort being undertaken For all the effort being undertaken internationally to address climate, little if any is internationally to address climate, little if any is being made towards building bridges through being made towards building bridges through and past a period of declining growth and and past a period of declining growth and wealth. Cognitive dissonance meet group wealth. Cognitive dissonance meet group think...think... – Nate Hagens “Dear Candidate - What Will You Do if Growth Is Over...?”
Solvitur ambulandoSolvitur ambulando ““It is solved by walking.”It is solved by walking.” We will figure this out as we go along, We will figure this out as we go along,
“this” being how to address the “this” being how to address the stressesstresses
Concentrate on the journey – not the Concentrate on the journey – not the destinationdestination
Solutions will emerge incrementally Solutions will emerge incrementally rather than in a “one size fits all” rather than in a “one size fits all” utopian movementutopian movement
No Regrets PolicyNo Regrets Policy Pursue policies that make sense Pursue policies that make sense
even if the dire predictions are even if the dire predictions are exaggerated or wrongexaggerated or wrong– Less pollution and climate changeLess pollution and climate change– Less dependence on foreign oil and Less dependence on foreign oil and
political instabilitypolitical instability– Infrastructure investment’s long term Infrastructure investment’s long term
payoffpayoff– Stronger and healthier local Stronger and healthier local
communitiescommunities
H.E.L.P.H.E.L.P. Humanize Humanize – build community– build community Economize Economize – Don’t overspend – – Don’t overspend –
get out of debtget out of debt LocalizeLocalize – support local industry – support local industry
and agricultureand agriculture ProduceProduce – learn new skills – learn new skills
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