the power of surface modelling
Post on 11-Jan-2017
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The Power of Surface Modelling
Bryan Clarke
2015 HiNZ Conference
Thanks to ….
Overview
• Mapping 101 using John Snow’s Cholera discovery in 1854• Trend mapping for KPIs to look for opportunities for improvements• Localised mapping of a pharmacy to look at market penetration• Specific medication mapping using trend and penetration mapping
Progress since John Snow
Thematic Mapping• Boundaries are arbitrary• Boundaries don’t change
as the underlying data changes
• Boundaries are often related to non-healthcare functions (eg voting, rating)
• Uncommunicative and statistically invalid
Transactions or trends?
Scenario One: Regional Example
Where can the KPIs be improved to the greatest effect?
Life Threatening Incidents(1 month)
● Met target (1)
● Missed target(0)
Percentage Surface● 100%● 0 %
Incident Density Surface ● Highest density● High density
Bang for Buck Surface ● Highest opportunity● High opportunity
Scenario Two: Specific PharmacyExample
http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census.aspx
Population Density● Highest density● Lowest density
Patient Density● Highest density● Lowest densityϨ 500m Driving distance contours Scale: Kilometres
Market Penetration● 60% penetration● 10% penetration
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛=𝑃𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 /𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦Scale: Kilometres
Driving distance● Closest to pharmacy● Farthest from any pharmacy (4km)
Driving distance fromBastins● up to 500m● up to 1km● up to 1.5kms
Customer growth● Greater opportunity● Reduced opportunity
Scenario Three: Specific SmokingMedication Example –Champix vs Habitrol
Population Density● Highest population● Lowest population
http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census.aspx
http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census.aspx
UrbanSmokerDensity● Highest density● Lowest density
http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census.aspx
UrbanSmokerPercentage● 35% ● 5%
Market Penetration● 60% penetration● 10% penetration
Scale: Kilometres
Ratio● Champix ● Habitrol
Ϩ Pharmacymarket contours (5% intervals)
Scale: Kilometres
http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census.aspx
Deprivation● Least deprived● Most deprived
Scale: Kilometres
http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census.aspxScale: Kilometres
Ratio● Champix ● Habitrol
Deprivation● Least deprived● Most deprived
Scale: Kilometres
Ratio● Champix ● Habitrol
● High smoker density ● Low smoker density http://www.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census.aspx
Advantages of Surface Analysis• Computation is not particularly intensive• Easy to understand• Easy to compare different data sets• Anonymise the data (without the need for meshblocks)• Communicative• Can be statistically validated• Automated and served up from the cloud
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