the nuclear club who’s in? who’s out? and where do we go from here?

The Nuclear Club

Who’s in? Who’s out?

And where do we go from here?

From Einstein to the A-Bomb

• 1930’s- Early research into atomic fission.

• 1940’s- US and Germany race to develop nuclear weapons.

• “Manhattan Project” in US

1945

• 1st US test of atomic bomb [“Trinity”]

• US drops 2 atomic bombs on Japan to end WWII

The Cold War: 1945 – 1990

• Massive nuclear build-up by US and USSR• Espionage• “Mutually assured destruction” [MAD]

1950s

• US and Soviet Union develop more powerful nuclear fusion weapons. [Thermonuclear]

• Atmospheric testing

IAEA: UN Nuclear watchdog

• Founded 1957 – International Atomic Energy Administration• Nuclear verification and security; safety; technology transfer.• Nuclear safety after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.• Challenges possible proliferation - North Korea, Iraq, Iran

http://www.iaea.org/

Cold War nuclear crisis: 1962

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty:

• Non-proliferation

• Disarmament

• The right to peacefully use nuclear

technology

• 181 nations have signed

• Non-signers: India, Pakistan, Israel

• North Korea – withdrew in 2003

http://www.fas.org/nuke/control/npt/

NPT: Issues

• Reviewed every 5 years

• 2000 – Nuclear powers agreed to eliminate nuclear arsenals

• 2005 – Concerns by non-aligned nations that NATO nuclear-sharing agreement violates NPT.

• Nuclear powers not doing enough to reduce their arsenals

Today: Nuclear numbers

Emerging threats: Direct nuclear confrontations

• India – Pakistan

• US – Iran

• Israel – Arab nations

• North Korea – Japan/China/US/Others?

• China – North Korea? Russia?

Emerging threats

• Post-Cold-War “first-use” policy by NATO and Russia

• Continuing modernization of nuclear arsenals

Emerging threats

• Security and safety of nuclear stockpiles

• “Loose nukes”

Emerging threats

• Nuclear espionage • Illegal sales• Smuggling

In 2004, Dr. A.Q. Kahn, of Pakistan, admitted to selling nuclear technologies to Libya, Iran and North Korea

Nuclear Terrorism

• Dirty bombs

• High explosives plus radioactive material

Emerging threats:New nuclear nations

Emerging threats:Accidents

Nuclear weapons: The next generation

• “Small” nuclear weapons

• “Bunker-buster”• US - $5 billion per year for weapons

research, development, and production $3.8 billion during the Cold War.

Steps to prevent nuclear terrorism

• Secure nuclear warheads and materials

• Stop nuclear smuggling• Stabilize employment

for nuclear personnel• Monitor nuclear

stockpiles• Reduce nuclear

stockpiles• End production http://www.nti.org/

How much progress has been made so far? The good news…

• Glaring security gaps have been addressed in many places

• Thousands of bombs-worth of nuclear materials have been destroyed

• Radiation-detection equipment in place at many border crossings around the world

• Many nuclear scientists have been re-employed in non-weapons programs.

Progress: the bad news…

• US/India nuclear deal includes no provision for nuclear security

• Secure storage facility in Russia still empty

• Thousands of nuclear weapons and materials in insecure buildings and bunkers

• Thousands of nuclear workers with potentially dangerous nuclear knowledge do not have legitimate jobs

• 10,000+ bombs’-worth of plutonium still out there

Some questions to consider

• Why should any country be banned from having nuclear weapons?

• Is it the inherent right of a country to develop any weapons it feels necessary to defend itself?

• Is it even possible to ban a particular category of weapons?

• If you keep a country out of the Nuclear Club, do you lose the ability to influence its decisions regarding nuclear weapons?

More questions

• If the US—the world’s strongest power—feels the need to continue developing nukes, how can we expect less powerful countries to resist getting them?

• Can nuclear weapons themselves be viewed as a deterrent to war?

• Or, is “deterrence,” in effect, an incentive for more proliferation?

• What are the ethical and moral considerations for scientists who help develop new nuclear technologies?

• What role could your country play in making today’s nuclear world safer?

The Nuclear Club:What’s next?