the infinite resource - growing prosperity while reducing impact on the earth

The Infinite ResourceGrowing Prosperity on a Finite Planet

Ramez Naam @ramez

It was the best of times, It was the worst of times

It was the age of wisdom, It was the age of foolishness,

It was the spring of hope, It was the winter of despair,

We had everything before us, We had nothing before us.

Unprecedented Prosperity

Unprecedented Opportunity

Unprecedented Risk

Possible to Prosper Like Never Before

With LESS Negative Impact

Possible != Assured

Important Changes Needed

BEST OF TIMES

Population

LONGER LIVES

LESS POVERTY

MORE FOOD PER PERSON

FEWER MALNOURISHED

More Access to Electricity

RISING EDUCATION

DROPPING ILLITERACY

HIGHER LITERACY

HIGHER HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX

MORE DEMOCRACY

GREATER EQUALITY

GREATER EQUALITY

WORST OF TIMES

Welcome to the Anthropocene

ACIDIFICATION HITS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

HIGH ACIDIFICATION WOULD WIPE OUT CORALS

Fish Stocks Crashed or Overexploited

Depleted Fisheries

Fish Tons Per Unit Effort

Species Loss

Peak Oil: Projections

PROSPERITY BUILT ON OVERCONSUMPTION

SOME SAY: GROWTH MUST STOP

HALTING GROWTH HAS A COST

RAISING GLOBAL HEALTH REQUIRES GROWING ENERGY AND ECONOMIES

TODAY

• GLOBAL TRADE $ ARE 10x GLOBAL MILITARY $

• US TRADE $ ARE 5x US MILITARY $

• CHINA, US, EU, INDIA, CAN ALL GROW SIMULTANEOUSLY

IN A ZERO SUM WORLD

• ONE NATION’S GAIN IS ANOTHER’S LOSS

• WAR BECOMES MORE PROFITABLE THAN TRADE

• NATIONS WILL FIGHT OVER SCRAPS

• NOT WHAT WE WANT

FORTUNATELY…

NOT NEW PREDICTIONS

THE POPULATION BOMB

“The war to feed humanity is over… Billions will die”

MASSIVE FAMINES PREDICTED FOR 1970s

THE LIMITS TO GROWTH (1972)

MASSIVE ECONOMIC AND POPULATION COLLAPSE PREDICTED FOR 1992

THOMAS MALTHUS

PREDICTED MASSIVE FAMINE AND DIE-OFF FOR THE 1800s

ALL THESE PREDICTIONS WERE WRONG

MISSING INGREDIENT

INNOVATION

GROWTH IN USEFUL KNOWLEDGE

KNOWLEDGE: ULTIMATE RESOURCE

1. INFINITELY RE-USABLE2. GROWS RATHER THAN BEING DEPLETED3. NON-RIVAL4. REDUCES NEED FOR OR MULTIPLIES VALUE OF:– Energy, Materials, Land, Labor, Time– All Physical Resource

OUTPUT = INPUTS x KNOWLEDGE MULTIPLIER

EXAMPLE : FOOD PRODUCTION

• FIRST & MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

• HISTORY HAS SHOWN:– More Food Per Unit Land (via Innovation)– Reduced Ecological Footprint Per Person

EATING OIL?

NO: TREND IS 12,000 YEARS OLD

SINCE LONG BEFORE FERTILIZER

Earliest Scratch Farming1 ,000,000

m^2 / person

Irrigated Farming: 26,000 m^2

Roman Empire: 13,000 m^2Late Middle Ages: 8,500 m^2US Farming in 1900: 6,000 m^2 US Farming in 1960: 2,800 m^2US Farming in 2000: 1,200 m^2

Hunter Gatherer Societies~10,000,000 m^2 / person

LAND REQUIRED TO FEED A HUMAN HAS SHRUNK BY 10,000x

LABOR PRICE OF LIGHTWORK HOURS PER 1,000 LUMEN HOURS

LIGHT / UNIT ENERGY: UP 500x IN 150 YEARS

WE USE LESS OIL PER PERSON THAN 1970

LESS WATER PER CAPITA THAN 1970

WE EMIT LESS CO2 / CAPITA THAN 1980

POPULATION WILL PLATEU & DECLINE

CO2 PER $ OF GDP IS SHRINKINGCHINA IS CATCHING UP USING WESTERN TECHNOLOGY

KNOWLEDGE CAN AND DOES REPLACE PHYSICAL RESOURCES

WHAT ARE THE LIMITS?

14 SECONDS OF INSOLATION

= 1 DAY OF HUMANITY’S ENERGY USE

88 MINUTES OF INSOLATION

= 1 YEAR OF HUMANITY’S ENERGY USE

0.3% of Earth’s Land Area Could Power Humanity in 2030 at 14% efficiency.

1/100th the Area Used for Agriculture Today

SOLAR MOORE’S LAW: -7% $$/WATT EACH YEAR

Algae Based Biofuels

DARPA: $5 / GALLON BIO-KEROSINE IN 2013

Fresh Water

1E+15

1E+18

1E+21Energy in Watt Hours

FARM PRODUCTIVITY : LARGE VARIANCE

US YIELDS REPRESENT 2X UPSIDEUS-STYLE FARMING COULD DOUBLE TOTAL WORLD FOOD

MOVE RICE & OTHER C3 CROPS C4 PHOTOSYNTHESIS ~30% YIELD INCREASES

13%

1200 m^2 / person on earth with best farming today

31 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with an American diet)

6 m^2 / person at 13% efficiency(with a vegetarian diet)

PHOTOSYNTHETIC LIMIT OF FOOD IS VAST

RETURNING LAND TO NATURE

• Increased Yields = Less Land Per Person

• Population Will Peak at < 10 Billion

• Opportunity: Return Millions of km^2 to Forest

Fish Farming vs. Fish Hunting

INCREDIBLE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE

• Natural Resources are Huge:– Energy– Water– Food Limits– Materials

• Innovation Can Tap Into Them with Less and Less Impact on the World

POSSIBLE != CERTAIN

CHALLENGE: A BUG IN OUR SOFTWARE

MARKET ECONOMICS• The “Software” That Runs Our Society

• Incredibly Successful

• Has Outcompeted All Other Systems

• Aligns Individual Incentives with Overall Desires

• Rewards Innovation

• A Darwinian Ecosystem For New Ideas

• But One Key Bug…

EXTERNALITIES

EXTERNALITY

THINGS WE CARE ABOUT

THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE

(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)

THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE(A WIDER VARIETY

THAN TODAY)

EXTERNALITY

THINGS WE CARE ABOUT

THINGS THE MARKET CAN MANAGE

(THINGS WITH PRICES, OWNERS, BUYERS, SELLERS)

$$$

A CARBON TAXCreates Incentives for:1. Conservation & Efficiency

2. Alternative Energy Use and R&D

3. Sequestration of Carbon from Atmosphere

WHAT WOULD IT COST?ENOUGH TO HIT A TIPPING POINT1. Cheaper to Pull Carbon From the Air than the

Ground

2. Cheaper to Build Solar than Coal Immediately

3. Cheap Enough We Could Remedy Externalities

WHAT WOULD IT COST?$50 - $100 / Ton of CO2e=$.50 - $1.00 / gallon of gasoline

$.05 - $.10 / kilowatt hour of coal electricity

Phased in Over 10 Years

WE’VE FIXED GLOBAL COMMONS BEFORE

WE’VE FIXED GLOBAL COMMONS BEFORE

REQUIRES COOPERATION & DISCIPLINE

WE CAN DO IT AGAIN

WE MUST FIX OUR SYSTEM

WE MUST END EXTERNALITIES

IF WE FAIL TO ACT

MAKE THE RIGHT CHOICES

GROWTH CAN CONTINUE

BEYOND OUR WILDEST DREAMS

OUR GREATEST RESOURCE

Ramez Naam @ramez