the hazardous weather testbed / experimental warning program
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Travis SmithNSSL / OU / CIMMS
The Hazardous Weather Testbed /
Experimental Warning Program
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 2
Experimental Warning Program
• one half of the Hazardous Weather Testbed, focused on short-fused severe weather hazards
• EWP “Research” (NSSL / WRD / SWAT + friends) – develop severe weather warning applications and techniques to enhance warning decision-making
• EWP “Operations” – collaborative evaluation of new techniques, applications, observing platforms, and technologies
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 3
EWP Research
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010
We work at the crossroads of nearly everything in warning decision-making research.
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 4
Example: Multi-sensor data fields Show physical
relationships between data fields from multiple sensorsStorm tracks and trends can be generated at any spatial scale, for any data fieldsFuture state predicted through extrapolation shows skill out to about an hour
Near-surface reflectivity
Reflectivity @ -20 C
(~6.5 km AGL)
Total Lightning Density
Max Expected Size of Hail
4
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 5
EWP OperationsForecaster / researcher collaboration• 60-70 participants• All NWS regions• International visitors• Valuable feedback!Science and Technology showcaseCurrently 6 weeks annually – could expandWarn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 6
EWP Research / Operations and Warn-on-
Forecast• What are the best approaches for radar data QC for assimilation into models?
• How well are storm-scale processes depicted by data assimilation and model forecasts?
• How will WoF information be used/visualized in NWS operations?
• How will it be conveyed to the many different types of end-users?
• How do we manage this paradigm shift? (deterministic versus probabilistic warning guidance)
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 7
Radar QC: current “best practices” and
future capabilitiesExamples, not an exhaustive list:• 2D velocity dealiasing (Zhongqi and Wiener)
• Staggered PRT range/velocity ambiguity reduction (Torres et al.)
• Reflectivity QC neural network (Lakshamanan)
• Dual-Pol Clutter Mitigation Decision algorithm (Hubbert et al.)
First step: human-QC’d data set of case studies for evaluation.
Bef
ore
Afte
r
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 8
Collaborative evaluation and
feedbackDo models accurately depict:• current storm
structure?• range of possible
predicted storm evolutions?
How to best visualize the data?Help forecasters understand the data
10 m/s updraft
Ice and liquid water
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 9
Evaluation Example: SHAVE
Phone calls to conduct surveysStudent-run, student-ledRemote high resolution verification of:
HailWind damageFlash floods
SHAVE VERIFICATION
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 10
Integration into NWS operations
Integrate:• new science• new
technologies
With:• new concepts of
operations• new products
and services
HWT Collaboration(early and often!)
Operational Implementation
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010
The meteorologist is the expert on interpreting the hazard and its uncertainty.
The meteorologist cannot anticipate everyone’s exposure and response time
How can weather hazard information be made more adaptable to those that do know their own exposure and response time?
Sociology of Probabilistic Warning Guidance
Little Sioux Camp
Concrete Dome Home
Getting “there” from “here”
Statis
tics-b
ased
unce
rtaint
y /
human
-ass
isted
& au
tomate
d
extra
polat
ion
“War
n on d
etecti
on” (
deter
ministi
c)
Blende
d stat
istics
/
extra
polat
ion w
/ data
assim
ilatio
n
NWP “W
arn o
n for
ecas
t”
Existing stormsNewly initiated convection
Present
Forecast convection (doesn’t yet exist)
WSR-88D Dual-Pol Radar Phased Array RadarGap-filling radarFuture
GOES-R
Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop – Feb 18, 2010 13
The EWP “ résumé ”• Radar interpretation / analysis / visualization• Severe weather warning applications• Multi-sensor data blending and extrapolation-
based nowcasting• Radar data QC / Human QC of data• Data mining of large data sets• Building enhanced verification data sets• Good relationships with many operational
NWSFOs / regions (MICs, SOOs, WCMs, forecasters)
• Live where research and operations meet.
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