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Directorate General of Electricity
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
The Future Trend of Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Development
Presented at:
74TH INDONESIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY DAY’S CONFERENCE
“The Electrical Power Industry in The Era of Industry 4.0, Facing The Challenges
of The Energy Transition Toward Non-Fossil Energy”
Jakarta, 9 October 2019
By:
Ir. Jisman P. Hutajulu, MM
Director of Electricity Program Supervision
Directorate General of Electricity
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia
Outlines
2
3 Trend of Electricity in Indonesia – Current Status
4 Outlook of Electricity Sector Development
Policy in the Electricity Sector
5
6
1 The Future Trend of Electricity System
Conclusion
Government Efforts to Anticipate Changes in
Trends in the Electricity Sector
The Future Trend of Electricity System1
The Future Energy System will provide additional roles for the grid and incorporate many customer technologies.
Source : World Economic Forum 2017 : The Future of Electricity New Technologies Transforming the Grid Edge
THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM - 1
FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM – 2
Smart local grids, linking a diverse set of distributed resources across different sectors,
may emerge as main pillar of future energy systems.
THE FUTURE ENERGY FOR GENERATING ELECTRICITY
Source : IEA, 2018. Dr. Fatih Biroi. World Energy Outlook 2018. Oslo. Nowqay, 20 November 2018
Renewables make up two-thirds of all capacity additions worldwide to 2040, capturing
70% of power plant investment.
Policy in the Electricity Sector2
8
INDONESIA’S ENERGY TRILEMMA
The basic philosophy of developing the electricity sector in Indonesia must be carried
out in a balanced manner between Energy Security, Energy Equity, and Environmental
Sustainability.
Increase accessibility/
Electrification ratio.
Additional Capacity.
Increase
acceptability (reliability, quality
and eco-friendly).
National
Electricity
Sustainability.
Affordable of
electricity price.
Source: World Energy Council
9
The policy direction of the development of electricity supply in line with the nationaldevelopment objectives in the electricity sector is to ensure the availability of sufficient quantityof electricity, good quality, and reasonable price.
Policy Direction for Power Generation
• Maintaining the balance of Supply-demand and system reliability;
• Reducing the cost of power generation by developing gas well head and mine-mouth based power plant;
• NRE portion ≥ 23% by 2025;
• The development of CFPP must be using Clean Coal Technology (CCT);
• The development of GFPP/CCPP/MG/CCMG must be using platform in small system;
• Priority for PLN to develop power generation for load follower and peaker.
Policy Direction for Transmission
• Transmission network must be Open Access;
• Interconnection development inter systems and inter-island;
• Transmission planning should able to anticipate capacity increase 30 years ahead;
• Meets the N-1 reliability criteria;
• The ASEAN Power Grid should concern the national interest.
POLICY DIRECTION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY (RUKN 2019-2038) – 1/2
10
Policy Direction for Sub Station
•1 sub station for each district/municipal or if add transformer if load capacity has reached 70%;
•GIS should be developed for areas with limited land;
•Providing IBT back up 1 phase for each location of Extra High Voltage Sub Station and 1 phase per-type for each province for conventional Extra High Voltage Sub Station
Policy Direction for Distribution
•Distribution network must be Open Access;
•Improved voltage, SAIDI and SAIFI;
•Reducing losses and rehabilitation of old networks;
Policy Direction for Rural Electricity
•Priority to helping community groups who cannot afford;
•Indigenous energy potential needs to be prioritized;
•The development of Off-grid system for remote areas.
Policy Direction for Smart Grid
By 2020, smart grid should be implemented in some areas in Java-Bali system and gradually applied to systems outside Java-Bali to boost the NRE portion.
POLICY DIRECTION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY (RUKN 2019-2038) – 2/2
11
Trend of Electricity in Indonesia – Current Status
3
1212
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester
1 2019
PLT EBT Lainnya 29 29 46 69 768 1,385 1,427 1,780 1,831 1,913 2,090 2,120
PLTP 1,069 1,206 1,206 1,226 1,336 1,398 1,403 1,438 1,533 1,808 1,948 1,948
PLTA/M/MH 4,785 4,802 4,822 4,925 5,128 5,181 5,207 5,277 5,621 5,658 5,742 5,800
PLTD 2,508.60 2,597.08 3,073.84 3,250.10 3,361.98 3,562.21 3,637 3,824 3,979 4,396 4,631 4,669
PLTG/GU/MG 10,136.97 10,747.01 11,019.40 12,458.64 14,117.19 14,552.34 14,885 15,890 17,070 17,660 18,926 19,428
PLTU 12,634.08 13,070.58 13,370.58 16,750.58 20,740.58 22,274.58 23,858 26,448 28,352 30,768 31,587 31,833
Total 31,162 32,451 33,537 38,680 45,452 48,353 50,418 54,658 58,386 62,203 64,925 65,797
31,162 32,451 33,537
38,680
45,452 48,353
50,418 54,658
58,386 62,203
64,925 65,797
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
GE
NE
RA
TIO
N C
AP
AC
ITY
(MW
)TREND OF NATIONAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY (MW)
• Conventional CFPP
• Type of RE (hydro,
geothermal, &
Biomass)
• Introduce CCT technology (SC & USC) in
Java Bali system
• Conventional CFPP in outside Java Bali
• Type of RE (hydro, geothermal, &
Biomass)
• Introduce VRE
(wind & solar)
1313
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester
1 2019
PLTSa - - - - - - 14.00 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65
PLTS 2.72 2.72 3.02 3.53 10.81 18.65 22.74 33.36 43.12 50.90 60.19 78.86
PLT Bio 25.44 25.44 41.44 64.44 755.48 1,364.67 1,388.67 1,726.01 1,767.44 1,841.15 1,867.15 1,867.15
PLTB 0.86 0.86 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 143.51 154.31
PLTP 1,068.80 1,205.80 1,205.80 1,225.80 1,335.80 1,398.30 1,403.30 1,438.30 1,533.30 1,808.30 1,948.30 1,948.30
PLTA/M/MH 4,784.97 4,801.69 4,821.89 4,925.43 5,128.40 5,181.09 5,206.81 5,277.46 5,620.86 5,657.91 5,742.15 5,799.83
PLT Hybrid - - - - 0.06 0.08 0.08 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58
Total 5,883 6,037 6,074 6,221 7,232 7,964 8,037 8,496 8,985 9,379 9,781 9,868
5,883 6,037 6,074 6,221
7,232
7,964 8,037 8,496
8,985 9,379
9,781 9,868
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
KA
PA
SIT
AS
PE
MB
AN
GK
IT (
MW
)TREND OF NATIONAL NRE POWER GENERATION (MW)
• Type of RE (hydro, geothermal, & Biomass) • Introduce
VRE (wind &
solar)
1414
Source: Directorate General of Electricity, MEMR (Status Update 19th August 2019)
*) The nominal installed capacity of national power plants is based on the asset database. Until the end of 2018, the portions of asset ownership are PLN 40,8 GW (62,9%),
PPU 3,6 GW (5,5%), IPP 15 GW (23,1%), DGNREEC asset 0,05 GW (0,1%), Operation License for Own Utilization 5,5 GW (8,4%). Data for year 2018 have been
synchronized with the last IUPTL PLN’s attachment until the end of 2018 and the official letter from DGNREEC, MEMR on June, 11th 2019.
INSTALLED CAPACITY OF NATIONAL POWER GENERATION *)
As of First Semester 2019
15
Outlook of Electricity Sector Development4
16
THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF POWER GENERATION UP TO 2028
Source: PLN’s RUPTL 2019-2028
• The total additional capacity of power generation to be built up to 2028 is about of 56.39 GW.
• Coal fired power generation will be still developed in the next 5 years from 2019 and then it will
be gradually reduced.
• Gas fired power generation will be developed relatively constant after 2019.
• Renewable Energy (RE) power generation will be developed relatively constant up to 2024 and
then it will be increased significantly by 2025.
17
DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF NRE POWER GENERATION
Source: PLN’s RUPTL 2019-2028
56,39
GW
56,39
GW
56,39
GW
16,72
GW
18
ENERGY MIX OF POWER GENERATION
Source: PLN’s RUPTL 2019-2028
Oil4.32%
Gas21.12%
Coal61.85%
RE12.71%
Realisasi Target 2025
(RUPTL 2019-2028)
Trend kedepan adalah porsi
Batubara dan BBM dalam energy
mix diturunkan dan Gas dan
EBT ditingkatkan.
Oil0.40%
Gas22.00%
Coal54.60%
RE23.00%
Energy Mix (%) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Oil 4,0 2,9 1,5 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4
Gas 21,2 19,3 18,0 18,4 19,6 19,8 22,0 22,0 22,0 22,0
Coal 62,7 65,5 68,2 67,8 66,6 63,7 54,6 54,4 54,4 54,4
Renewable Energy (RE) 11,4 11,7 12,2 13,1 13,2 16,0 23,0 23,2 23,2 23,2
IMPORT 0,6 0,6 0,1 0,1 0,1 - - - - -
BBM (+BBN)6.04%
Gas21.70%
Coal60.28%
RE11.98%
Semester 1
Tahun 2019Tahun 2018
19
Government Efforts to Anticipate Changes in Trends in the Electricity Sector5
20
THE GOVERNMENT ACTION – 1/2
1. Developing electricity infrastructure by utilizing the latest technology (smart grid
and metering) to increase EBT penetration in the PLN system.
According to the 2019-2038 RUKN, in 2020, smart grids have begun to be
implemented in several regions in Java-Bali and gradually applied to systems outside
Java-Bali.
2. Revising the Grid Code to accommodate the usage of intermittent renewable
energy plants (Solar and Wind power).
Revision of the grid code is currently in the process of being finalized and it is expected
to be completed in 2019.
3. Introducing rooftop solar PV for PLN’s customers to encourage increased of
NRE.
Through Ministerial of EMR Regulation No. 49 of 2018 regarding the Use of Roof Solar
Power Generation Systems by PLN’s Consumers, starting January 1, 2019 PLN’s
consumers can install rooftop solar PV, produce their own electricity, and even export it
to PLN. Rooftop solar PV is also Distributed Generation systems development. As of
the first semester of 2019, the number of rooftop solar PV that have been built is total
of 1,059 customers with a total capacity of 3.5 MWp.
21
THE GOVERNMENT ACTION – 2/2
4. Developed Distributed Generation, Micro-grid and Distributed Storage.
PLN is currently conducting a study of installing batteries (as an energy storage
system) in Bali with a capacity of 50 MW / 200 MWh. If this study is feasible, then the
battery becomes an alternative for short-term power shortage mitigation, and can be a
backup for intermittent EBT generators..
5. Introducing electric vehicles.
The Government has issued Presidential Regulation No. 55 of 2019 regarding the
Acceleration of the Battery-Based Electric Motor Vehicle Program for Road
Transportation. As a follow up to Presidential Regulation No. 55 of 2019, the Ministry of
EMR is preparing a Ministerial Regulation regarding Infrastructure of Electricity
Charging Provision and Electricity Tariffs for Battery-Based Electric Motorized Vehicles
which regulates among others the electricity charging station management scheme and
Battery leasing for Battery-based electric motorized vehicles; electricity tariff for
electricity charging station and Private Electric Installation; and safety aspects.
6. Introducing the usage of electric stoves.
Electric stoves have advantages when compared to conventional stoves. The Ministry
of EMR along with PLN are doing campaign for the use of electric stoves to people who
lived in cities.
22
Conclusion6
23
CONCLUSION
• Electricity sector development in Indonesia must be carried out in a balancedmanner between Energy Security, Energy Equity, and Energy Sustainability.
• In the transition period, Indonesia is still developing coal fired power plant in orderto get low cost of power generation production so that the electricity tariff can becompetitive, at the end. However, the development of CFPP should be used CCTtechnology.
• Renewable energy will gradually to be boosted by considering the readiness ofelectricity system, particularly intermittent power generation in order to achieve23% of share of renewable energy by 2025.
• Collaboration between government and stakeholders is indispensable for
successful transformation of electricity sector.
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2525
TREND OF NATIONAL POWER GENERATION – 2/2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Semester…
Persen (%)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester 1
2019
PLTU 40.54 40.28 39.87 43.31 45.63 46.07 47.32 48.39 48.56 49.46 48.65 48.38
PLTG/GU/MG 32.53 33.12 32.86 32.21 31.06 30.10 29.52 29.07 29.24 28.39 29.15 29.53
PLTD 8.05 8.00 9.17 8.40 7.40 7.37 7.21 7.00 6.82 7.07 7.13 7.10
PLTA/M/MH 15.35 14.80 14.38 12.73 11.28 10.72 10.33 9.66 9.63 9.10 8.84 8.81
PLTP 3.43 3.72 3.60 3.17 2.94 2.89 2.78 2.63 2.63 2.91 3.00 2.96
PLT EBTLainnya
0.09 0.09 0.14 0.18 1.69 2.86 2.83 3.26 3.14 3.08 3.22 3.22
PLTU PLTG/GU/MG PLTD
In total capacity, the portion of CFPP is maintained no more than 50%; the portion of Diesel power
plant is suppressed; and the portion of NRE power plant increased although in the last 4 years it
was still around 15%.
2626
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Semester 1 2019
Persen (%)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester 1
2019
PLTA/M/MH 81.34 79.54 79.39 79.18 70.91 65.05 64.79 62.12 62.56 60.33 58.71 58.78
PLTP 18.17 19.98 19.85 19.71 18.47 17.56 17.46 16.93 17.06 19.28 19.92 19.74
PLTB 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.47 1.56
PLT Bio 0.43 0.42 0.68 1.04 10.45 17.13 17.28 20.32 19.67 19.63 19.09 18.92
PLTS 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.23 0.28 0.39 0.48 0.54 0.62 0.80
PLTSa - - - - - - 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16
PLT Hybrid - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
PLTA/M/MH PLTP PLTB PLT Bio PLTS PLTSa PLT Hybrid
TREND OF NATIONAL NRE POWER GENERATION – 2/2
In total capacity, the portion of hydro power, geothermal and Biomass still dominates NRE power
generation capacity. But starting in 2018, wind and solar power began to show their portions.
27
ENERGY MIX OF PLN’S POWER GENERATION 2014 – 1ST SEMESTER 2019
• Coal’s share is still dominant in the energy mix of power generation, accounted for more than50% of total. It is because for getting low cost of power generation production so that theelectricity tariff can be competitive.
• Gas’s share is maintaining to be at least 20%.• NRE’s share is encouraged to increase.
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