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An analysis of recent trends in the Irish residential sales market for 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
The Daft.ie HousePrice Report
Introduction by Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor at
Trinity College Dublin and author of the Daft Report.
The difference a year makes This commentary for the
Year in Review Daft.ie Sales Report will have a different tone to some of its immediate predecessors
Understandably, given the more than 50% increase
in sale prices countrywide in recent years, recent
end-of-year commentaries have been gloomy in
outlook. Last year’s review finished with a warning
that without the right policy response, “there could
be many more years of housing market angst
ahead”.
Of course, twelve short months can hardly
overturn a systematic failure of housing supply. The
mismatch between strong demand and weak supply
continues – as does the mismatch between what is
being built and what is needed.
But within that last fact lie some positive
developments for Ireland sales segment.
Construction activity has improved over the last
year. Over the course of 2018, the country is likely
to see about 18,000 new homes built, up from less
than 15,000 in 2017.
More supply should ease the problems in the
housing market. But of course not homes are equal.
If the country needs urban apartments and is
getting mostly rural one-offs, then the extra supply
will be of far less benefit than if urban apartments
were built.
And that, at risk of simplification, is what is
happening. Comparing the country’s housing
stock with its people, the country does not need
any more three- and four-bedroom family homes.
What it needs instead is homes for one- and two-
person households, especially in urban areas – i.e.
apartments.
But the uplift in construction has been dominated
by estate housing – three- and four-bedroom
family homes. Three quarters of the growth in
construction between mid-2017 and mid-2018 came
from estate housing. Almost all of that is housing
built for sale to owner-occupiers, rather than for the
rental sector.
And this has had an impact on the trends in the
sales market. Perhaps the most notable trend in
the sales market right now is the extraordinary
growth in availability of homes for sale, especially in
Dublin (where construction is concentrated). Two
years ago, at the end of 2016, there were fewer than
2,800 homes for sale in the Dublin market. Now, in
December 2018, there are over 4,800.
This trend of greater availability has started to
spread, too. In Leinster (outside Dublin), availability
is up from 5,000 a year ago to 6,000 today.
Elsewhere in the country, the picture is more about
Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor in Economics, TCD
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 2
Market SurveyEach quarter, Daft.ie surveys over 1,000 property market participants, asking them about their sense of the market as a whole, and their own intentions. Below are some of the headline results.
Expected house price inflation reaches five-year low
The expected change in house prices over the coming 12 months currently stands at 2.3% nationally, down from a peak of 6.6% in 2017. In Dublin, expected inflation over the coming 12 months is now 3.3%, its lowest value since early 2016.
Expected price change over next 12 months
Price-to-income ratio stable
The planned housing price-to-income ratio was 4.9 among survey respondents in the final quarter of 2018, above the previous high of 4.7 recorded in mid-2017. In Dublin, the average ratio was 5.0, the third time in the last six quarters that it was at least five in the capital.
Planned house price-to-income ratio
Fall in those holding back due to deposits
The fraction of respondents stating that the need to save for a deposit was a factor behind delaying house purchase was just over 50% in late 2018. This is down from a high over 60% for the period from mid-2016 to mid-2017.
Is housing good value currently?
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q12015
Q12014
Q12013
Q12012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
National Dublin Ex-Dublin National Dublin Ex-Dublin
0%
10%
20%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-15%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q42015
Q42014
Q42013
Q42012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
-10%
20%
-20%Q2
2017 Q1
2017 Q4
2016Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2016 Q1
2015 Q1
2014 Q1
2013 Q1
2012 Q3
2017 Q4
2017 Q1
2018
National Dublin Ex-Dublin
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q12015
Q12014
Q12013
Q12012
1.0
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q12016
Q12016
Q42015
Q22014
Q42013
Q42012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q22018
Q32018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018 30%
40%
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q12015
Q12014
Q12013
Q12012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
National Dublin Ex-Dublin National Dublin Ex-Dublin
0%
10%
20%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-15%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q42015
Q42014
Q42013
Q42012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
-10%
20%
-20%Q2
2017 Q1
2017 Q4
2016Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2016 Q1
2015 Q1
2014 Q1
2013 Q1
2012 Q3
2017 Q4
2017 Q1
2018
National Dublin Ex-Dublin
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q12015
Q12014
Q12013
Q12012
1.0
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q12016
Q12016
Q42015
Q22014
Q42013
Q42012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q22018
Q32018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018 30%
40%
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q12015
Q12014
Q12013
Q12012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
National Dublin Ex-Dublin National Dublin Ex-Dublin
0%
10%
20%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-15%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q42015
Q42014
Q42013
Q42012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
-10%
20%
-20%Q2
2017 Q1
2017 Q4
2016Q3
2016 Q2
2016 Q1
2016 Q1
2015 Q1
2014 Q1
2013 Q1
2012 Q3
2017 Q4
2017 Q1
2018
National Dublin Ex-Dublin
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q22016
Q12016
Q12015
Q12014
Q12013
Q12012
1.0
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22017
Q12017
Q42016
Q32016
Q12016
Q12016
Q42015
Q22014
Q42013
Q42012
Q32017
Q42017
Q12018
Q22018
Q32018
Q22018
Q32018
Q22018
Q32018
Q42018 30%
40%
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 4
stabilisation after many years of dwindling stock.
This is a world away from the rental sector, where
availability is at record and continues to worsen
Unsurprisingly, with greater supply, the bargaining
power of buyers improves and prices increases
have slowed down. The annual rate of inflation in list
prices for Dublin in 2018 was 2.9%, down from 11.7%
a year ago. Outside Dublin, as you might guess from
stable rather than improving supply, inflation has
levelled off rather than cooled: increases of 7.3% in
2018 compared to 7.4% in 2017.
Looking ahead to 2019 and indeed to 2020, what
does the market have in store? 2018 was the year
that sales and rental segments detached. For
roughly five years, there had been a common trend
of acute supply shortages that characterised both
segments. That has given way in the sales market
to one of steadily improving supply, relieving the
upward pressure on prices.
And more is to come. Suppose, on average, it takes
18 months to go from planning permissions to
occupied units on new housing estates. The 8,500
or so units planned in the year to mid-2017 became
the new homes completed during 2018. Over 2019
and 2020, we are likely to see that number rise well
above 10,000 new estate homes completed in a
year. The focus will switch, in the sales segment,
from supply shortages to the capacity of the
mortgage market to process the new homeowners.
Unfortunately, no such relief is coming down the
tracks in the rental segment – or indeed the third
main component of the housing system, social
housing. In both of those segments, the system
needs to increase at least by a factor of ten. That
won’t happen on its own and thus it is those two
segments where policymakers need to focus now.
3 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
Cork City€275,703 | 5.8%
Limerick City€194,214 | 9.8%
Galway City€290,528 | 6.3%
Waterford City€174,879 | 8.6%
NationwideAverage asking prices and Y-on-Y change
DublinAverage asking prices and Y-on-Y change
North County€311,916 | 1.5%
South County€591,096 | 4.8%
West County€300,842 | -1.1%
South City€407,404 | 3.2%
City Centre€330,683 | 4.7%
North City€337,594 | 2.5%
MN€169,3053.1%
CN€156,6209.1%
WH€200,4559.4%
LD€136,9956.5%
LH€215,2744.6%
MH€262,2686.6%
KE€261,9064.7%
WW€333,8046.4%
WX€206,7797.3%
CW€189,7459.0%
KK€220,9786.8%
LS€176,75312.0%
OY€186,72510.0%
G€197,7917.4%
MO€154,28410.4%
SO€138,1645.5%
DL€143,5154.4%
RN€138,9087.5%
LM€134,63712.0%
CE€183,33911.4%
T€177,19911.1%
L€189,21811.4%
C€220,1736.3%
KY€192,6577.9%
W€217,9777.4%
Prices up 55% from their lowest pointNationally, the average asking price reached its lowest point
in the third quarter of 2013 and has risen 54.6% - or almost
€90,000 - since then. In Dublin, prices reached their lowest
point in the second quarter of 2012 and have risen by an
average of 68% - or €150,000 - since that time. In Dublin 7,
8 and 10, prices have doubled in that time. The increase in
prices has been smallest in Donegal, where price bottomed
out in early 2014 and have since risen by 26%.
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 65 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
€254KAverage List Price Nationwide
Daft.ie List Price Index
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
January 213.8 212.9 184.5 151.6 128.2 105.6 96.8 99.9 112.8 122.1 134.1 143.4
February 215.8 212.3 180.9 150.3 128.1 104.5 96.1 99.3 117.6 122.9 135.6 145.8
March 214.8 209.6 177.4 146.7 125.3 102.9 96.6 103.3 119.1 125.7 135.8 146.0
April 216.5 208.1 174.7 146.6 121.8 101.7 96.6 104.5 118.7 125.0 140.6 148.4
May 217.5 205.7 171.0 145.0 120.1 102.2 97.0 107.2 119.4 126.0 141.9 149.2
June 217.1 203.4 167.7 141.8 116.1 99.5 97.5 107.9 118.2 127.8 140.6 149.3
July 219.2 202.3 165.1 138.0 115.4 97.8 96.5 109.9 120.3 128.9 141.4 151.4
August 217.5 199.6 161.2 137.6 113.1 98.9 97.0 111.2 120.4 130.1 142.0 149.7
September 215.8 198.1 159.2 136.5 113.3 97.1 96.7 112.9 121.5 130.9 141.0 151.4
October 214.8 193.7 156.4 134.0 108.7 97.9 97.2 110.5 120.6 128.7 141.8 150.6
November 212.4 188.2 152.3 130.9 106.0 95.8 96.9 110.0 119.5 129.0 139.2 147.1
December 213.5 186.3 150.9 129.8 106.0 96.0 96.2 111.1 119.8 131.0 143.3 149.8
Asking Prices, Residential Sales(2012 average = 100)
7 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
Inflation eases to 5.5%The annual rate of increase in list prices, nationally, was 5.5%in the final quarter of 2018, the lowest rate recorded sinceearly 2014.
End-of-year quarterly falls again
Prices in the final three months of 2018 were 1.1% lower than three months previously, the fifth year in a row list prices have eased back at year-end.
Munster sees largest rises
Prices in Clare, Limerick and Tipperary are more than 10% higher than a year previously - with Munster (outside the cities) seeing the largest increases in the country.
Stock available up over 10%
There were just over 23,500 properties available for sale nationwide on December 1, almost 11% higher than a year previously - the first time stock at year end has been up in a decade.
Stock of properties on Daft.ie (start of month) and flow of properties, 2007-2018
Stock (lhs) Inflow (rhs) Outflow (rhs)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2008 2007
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
2017 2018 Q3
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 8
The Daft.ie Asking Price Index is based on asking prices for properties posted for sale on Daft.ie. An index based on asking price, as opposed to closing price, is a measure of sellers’ expectations. Figures are calculated from econometric regressions, which calculate changes in price that are independent of changes in observable measures of quality, such as location, or bedroom number.
Daft.ie Snapshot ofAsking Prices Nationwide Average asking prices across Ireland (€000s), and annual change (%), 2018 Q4
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 1211 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
LEIN
STER
MU
NST
ERCO
NN
ACH
TU
LSTE
R
OTH
ER C
ITIE
S
1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached
Dublin 1 €223 4.8% €330 4.1% €428 0.6% €589 1.3% €746 -2.0%
Dublin 2 €324 2.5% €435 1.2% €541 -6.4% €756 -6.0% €920 -3.7%
Dublin 3 €257 10.1% €365 6.7% €474 2.0% €703 4.4% €864 1.0%
Dublin 4 €304 -2.0% €455 1.8% €673 1.5% €1,050 0.2% €1,234 -7.0%
Dublin 5 €201 13.3% €279 11.4% €376 2.1% €605 7.8% €673 -4.8%
Dublin 6 €351 15.3% €487 13.3% €657 3.9% €1,056 9.7% €1,176 -3.1%
Dublin 6W €273 12.1% €379 10.2% €511 1.0% €822 6.7% €915 -5.8%
Dublin 7 €224 12.6% €310 10.7% €419 1.4% €673 7.1% €750 -5.4%
Dublin 8 €229 14.4% €318 12.5% €429 3.1% €690 8.9% €768 -3.9%
Dublin 9 €210 14.3% €291 12.4% €392 3.0% €631 8.8% €702 -4.0%
Dublin 10 €142 16.4% €196 14.4% €265 4.9% €426 10.8% €475 -2.2%
Dublin 11 €161 12.9% €223 11.0% €301 1.7% €484 7.4% €539 -5.1%
Dublin 12 €186 13.9% €258 12.0% €348 2.6% €559 8.4% €623 -4.3%
Dublin 13 €208 13.2% €288 11.3% €388 2.0% €625 7.7% €696 -4.9%
Dublin 14 €268 15.5% €372 13.5% €502 4.0% €807 9.9% €899 -3.0%
Dublin 15 €164 12.0% €227 10.1% €307 0.9% €493 6.6% €549 -5.9%
Dublin 16 €225 11.3% €312 9.4% €422 0.2% €678 5.9% €755 -6.5%
Dublin 17 €138 6.5% €191 4.7% €258 -4.1% €415 1.3% €462 -10.6%
Dublin 18 €254 14.8% €352 12.8% €475 3.4% €765 9.2% €851 -3.6%
Dublin 20 €190 15.7% €264 13.7% €356 4.2% €573 10.1% €638 -2.8%
Dublin 22 €135 11.9% €187 10.0% €253 0.8% €406 6.5% €452 -6.0%
Dublin 24 €146 13.9% €202 12.0% €272 2.6% €438 8.4% €488 -4.3%
North Co Dublin €163 11.6% €227 9.7% €306 0.6% €492 6.2% €547 -6.2%
South Co Dublin €300 15.3% €416 13.3% €561 3.9% €903 9.7% €1,005 -3.1%
West Dublin €155 9.7% €215 7.8% €291 -1.2% €467 4.3% €520 -7.9%
Cork City €122 15.6% €163 9.0% €239 2.8% €394 3.5% €473 1.1%
Galway City €119 15.1% €158 8.5% €232 2.4% €383 3.1% €460 0.6%
Limerick City €89 19.5% €118 12.7% €174 6.3% €287 7.0% €344 4.5%
Waterford City €77 18.7% €103 11.9% €151 5.6% €249 6.3% €299 3.8%
1 bed apartment 2 bed terraced 3 bed semi-d 4 bed bungalow 5 bed detached
Meath €107 18.0% €142 13.0% €190 5.2% €368 9.9% €384 2.1%
Kildare €113 15.7% €150 10.8% €201 3.2% €388 7.8% €406 0.1%
Wicklow €142 17.5% €189 12.6% €252 4.8% €488 9.4% €510 1.7%
Louth €95 15.9% €126 11.0% €168 3.4% €325 7.9% €339 0.3%
Longford €53 17.6% €70 12.6% €93 4.9% €180 9.5% €188 1.8%
Offaly €76 21.9% €101 16.8% €134 8.7% €260 13.5% €272 5.5%
Westmeath €82 21.0% €109 15.9% €146 7.9% €282 12.7% €294 4.7%
Laois €74 24.2% €99 19.0% €132 10.8% €255 15.7% €266 7.5%
Carlow €77 21.1% €103 16.0% €137 8.0% €265 12.8% €277 4.8%
Kilkenny €88 18.6% €117 13.6% €156 5.8% €301 10.5% €315 2.7%
Wexford €79 18.9% €105 14.0% €140 6.1% €271 10.8% €283 3.0%
Waterford Co €88 21.4% €107 16.5% €145 4.9% €285 7.2% €290 4.5%
Kerry €76 22.1% €94 17.2% €126 5.5% €248 7.8% €253 5.1%
Cork Co €90 19.8% €111 14.9% €149 3.5% €294 5.7% €299 3.1%
Clare €76 25.2% €93 20.2% €125 8.2% €246 10.5% €250 7.8%
Limerick Co €73 26.0% €89 20.9% €121 8.9% €237 11.2% €241 8.4%
Tipperary €72 25.4% €88 20.4% €119 8.4% €234 10.7% €238 7.9%
Galway Co €63 4.3% €87 9.9% €116 -1.0% €229 5.9% €239 -3.5%
Mayo €55 6.7% €76 12.5% €101 1.3% €199 8.4% €208 -1.3%
Roscommon €46 3.6% €64 9.2% €85 -1.6% €167 5.2% €174 -4.2%
Sligo €53 2.1% €73 7.6% €97 -3.1% €191 3.7% €200 -5.6%
Leitrim €48 8.4% €66 14.2% €88 2.9% €172 10.1% €180 0.2%
Donegal €49 1.6% €68 7.0% €90 -3.6% €177 3.2% €185 -6.1%
Cavan €52 6.0% €72 11.7% €96 0.6% €189 7.6% €197 -2.0%
Monaghan €59 -0.1% €82 5.2% €109 -5.2% €214 1.4% €224 -7.6%
DU
BLIN
DublinFirst year-on-year falls
2017 2018
15,000 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 17,500 18,000 18,500 19,000
Year to 2018 Q3
Year to 2017 Q3
Number of residential property transactions
13 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
West Dublin fallsPrices in West Dublin are 1.1% lower than a year previously,
the first annual fall in a major Dublin region since early 2016.
Late-year fallIn all six major regions of the city, prices fell back
between September and December - by 1.4% on
average.
North CityAverage price: €337,594Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2%Year-on-year change: 2.5%Change from trough: 71.3%
City CentreAverage price: €330,683Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.8%Year-on-year change: 4.7%Change from trough: 97.2%
South CityAverage price: €407,404Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2%Year-on-year change: 3.2%Change from trough: 67.5%
North CountyAverage price: €311,916
Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.1%Year-on-year change: 1.5%
Change from trough: 53.0%
West CountyAverage price: €300,842
Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.8%Year-on-year change: -1.1%Change from trough: 61.9%
South CountyAverage price: €591,096
Qtr-on-qtr change: -2.0%Year-on-year change: 4.8%
Change from trough: 70.8%
Dublin City Centre North Dublin City South Dublin City North County Dublin South County Dublin West County Dublin
€650,000
€600,000
€550,000
€500,000
€450,000
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
Average house price by area, 2006-2018.
€700,000
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
Q12017
Q12018
Q42018
€750,000
How have house prices changed?
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 14
Huge increase in stockThere were just over 4,800 properties for sale in
Dublin in December, up 40% on the same time last
year.
12% growth in transactionsThere were 18,600 transactions in the year to
September 2018, up 12% on the year to September
2017.
LeinsterFalls in 9 of 11 counties
15 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
1.3% fall in Q4After three quarters of growth, prices fell back in the
final quarter of the year in nine of the 11 counties -
with only Westmeath and Carlow (just) bucking the
trend.
Annual inflation still highDespite falling back September to December, inflation
remain high, with prices in the province 6.8% higher
than a year ago.
2017 2018
13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200 14,400 14,600
Number of residential property transactions
Year to 2018 Q3
Year to 2017 Q3
LouthAverage Price: €215,274Qtr-on-qtr change: -2.0%Year-on-year change: 4.6%Change from trough: 68.8%
MeathAverage Price: €262,268Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.5%Year-on-year change: 6.6%Change from trough: 74.7%
KildareAverage Price: €261,906Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2%Year-on-year change: 4.7%Change from trough: 67.0%
WicklowAverage Price: €333,804Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.8%Year-on-year change: 6.4%Change from trough: 64.2%
WexfordAverage Price: €206,779Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.6%Year-on-year change: 7.3%Change from trough: 65.5%
LongfordAverage Price: €136,995
Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.2%Year-on-year change: 6.5%
Change from trough: 62.6%
WestmeathAverage Price: €200,455Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.1%
Year-on-year change: 9.4%Change from trough: 69.8%
OffalyAverage Price: €186,725
Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.1%Year-on-year change: 10.0%Change from trough: 54.6%
LaoisAverage Price: €176,753
Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.8%Year-on-year change: 12.0%Change from trough: 70.4%
KilkennyAverage Price: €220,978
Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.9%Year-on-year change: 6.8%
Change from trough: 67.0%
CarlowAverage Price: €189,745Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.2%
Year-on-year change: 9.0%From trough: 62.1%
Dublin Commuter Counties West Leinster South-East Leinster
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
Average house price by area, 2006-2018.
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
Q12017
Q12018
Q42018
How have house prices changed?
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 16
Stock up one-fifthThere were over 5,900 properties for sale in Leinster
in December, a 20% increase on the same date in
2017 - by far the largest increase seen this decade.
9% growth in transactionsThere were 14,500 transactions in the year to
September 2018, up 9% on the year to September
2017.
MunsterYear-end falls
17 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
Falls follow risesPrices in rural Munster rose very strongly in Q3 (by
5.5%) - but eased back by 1.5% in the final three
months of the year.
Urban increasesMunster’s three cities were among the very few
markets that saw prices rise in the final three months
of the year, with increases greatest in Limerick (1.5%).
2017 2018
12,600 12,800 13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000 14,200
Number of residential property transactions
Year to 2018 Q3
Year to 2017 Q3
TipperaryAverage Price: €177,199Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.7%Year-on-year change: 11.1%Change from trough: 39.3%
Limerick CityAverage Price: €194,214Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.5%Year-on-year change: 9.8%Change from trough: 63.5%
Waterford CountyAverage Price: €217,977Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.4%Year-on-year change: 7.4%Change from trough: 51.6%
Waterford CityAverage Price: €174,879Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.9%Year-on-year change: 8.6%Change from trough: 66.9%
ClareAverage Price: €183,339
Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.8%Year-on-year change: 11.4%Change from trough: 53.3%
Limerick CountyAverage Price: €189,218
Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.7%Year-on-year change: 11.4%Change from trough: 43.8%
KerryAverage Price: €192,657
Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.7%Year-on-year change: 7.9%
Change from trough: 37.2%
Cork CountyAverage Price: €220,173
Qtr-on-qtr change: -2.0%Year-on-year change: 6.3%
Change from trough: 53.7%
Cork CityAverage Price: €275,703Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.8%
Year-on-year change: 5.8%Change from trough: 67.9%
How have house prices changed?
Cork City Limerick City Waterford City Rest-of-Munster
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Q12013
Q12014
Q12015
Q12016
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
Average house price by area, 2006-2018.
Q12017
Q12018
Q42018
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 18
Stock up 3%There were over 7,200 properties on the market in
Munster in December - almost 3% higher than a year
ago, the first time availability has risen since 2009.
7% growth in transactionsThere were 14,000 transactions in the year to
September 2018, up 7% on the year to September
2017.
Connacht/UlsterSecond quarterly fall
19 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
43% below 2008 Across the region as a whole, prices remain 43%
lower than the Celtic Tiger peak a decade ago -
although this varies from 24% below in Galway city to
50% in Sligo.
Prices down 0.4%After very strong price gains January to June, prices fell
back in both the third (0.9%) and fourth (0.4%) quarters of
2018.
2017 2018
8,000 8,100 8,200 8,300 8,400 8,500 8,600 8,700
Number of residential property transactions
Year to 2018 Q3
Year to 2017 Q3
8,800
LeitrimAverage Price: €134,637Qtr-on-qtr change: 1.7%Year-on-year change: 12.0%Change from trough: 56.7%
MonaghanAverage Price: €169,305Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.9%Year-on-year change: 3.1%Change from trough: 48.3%
CavanAverage Price: €156,620Qtr-on-qtr change: -1.1%Year-on-year change: 9.1%Change from trough: 52.5%
RoscommonAverage Price: €138,908Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.3%Year-on-year change: 7.5%Change from trough: 51.6%
DonegalAverage Price: €143,515
Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.4%Year-on-year change: 4.4%
Change from trough: 26.3%
SligoAverage Price: €138,164
Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.5%Year-on-year change: 5.5%
Change from trough: 31.5%
MayoAverage Price: €154,284Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.8%
Year-on-year change: 10.4%Change from trough: 38.7%
Galway CityAverage Price: €290,528Qtr-on-qtr change: 0.8%
Year-on-year change: 6.3%Change from trough: 80.9%
Galway CountyAverage Price: €197,791Qtr-on-qtr change: -0.9%
Year-on-year change: 7.4%Change from trough: 56.3%
Average house price by area, 2006-2018.
How have house prices changed?
Galway City Connacht Ulster
€400,000
€350,000
€300,000
€250,000
€200,000
€150,000
€100,000
€50,000
0Q1
2006Q1
2007Q1
2008Q1
2009Q1
2010Q1
2011Q1
2012Q1
2013Q1
2014Q1
2015Q1
2016Q1
2017Q1
2018Q4
2018
The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review | 20
Stock still fallingUnlike other parts of the country, the stock on the
market is still falling in Connacht-Ulster, with 5,600
homes on the market in December, down 3% year-
on-year.
6% growth in transactionsThere were 8,700 transactions in the year to
September 2018, up 6% on the year to September
2017.
Over the last number of years, Daft.ie has collected a vast amount of data on the Irish property market. Each year tens of thousands of properties for sale or rent are advertised on the site.
About the ReportThe goal of the Daft Report is to use this information to help all actors in the property market make informed decisions about buying and selling. In addition, because it is freely available, the Daft Report can help inform the media, the general public and policymakers about the latest developments in the property market.
This is the Daft.ie House Price Report, the partner to the Daft.ie Rental Report, which will be issuednext month. Together, they give house-hunters and investors more information to help them make their decisions. These twin reports mean that Daft is the only objective monitor of trends in both rental and sales markets on a quarterly basis, making the report an essential barometer for anyone with an interest in the Irish property market.
The Daft Report was first launched in 2005. It has already become the definitive barometer of the Irish rental market and is being used by the Central Bank, mortgage institutions, financial analysts and the general public alike. The Daft.ie House Price report is Ireland’s longest-running house price report, combining information from the Daft.ie archives with data from Ireland’s Residential Property Price Register.
Methodology and Sample SizeThe statistics are based on properties advertised on Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available and measurable attributes of properties, with a Cooks Distance filter for outliers.
The average monthly sample size for sale properties is 5,000. Indices are based on standard methods, holding the mix of characteristics constant, with the annual average of 2012 used as the base.
About Daft.ieDaft.ie is Ireland’s largest propertywebsite with over 2.5 million unique visitors generating over 228 million page impressions each month.
DisclaimerThe Daft.ie Report is prepared from information that we believe is collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the indices, snapshots or analysis at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on any information contained in this report for their own or third party commercial purposes do so at their own risk.
CreditsEconomic Analysis: Ronan LyonsMarketing and Communications: Martin ClancyLayout and Design: William Tector
21 | The Daft.ie House Price Report – 2018 Q4 - Year in Review
Coming next:
The Daft.ie Rental Report ,2018 Q4 - Year in Review.
The Daft.ie Rental Report will be published in early 2019 and will include a review of the performanceof Ireland’s rental market, plus all the usual indices, snapshots, trends and rental yield analysis, providing analysts, tenants, landlords, students and the public with the most up-to-date information on Ireland’s rental market.
All data is Copyright © Daft Media Limited. The information contained in this report may onlybe reproduced if the source is clearly credited. Please contact media@daft.ie for further information.
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