the current economic situation swedbank 2010-08-20
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The current economic situation
Swedbank2010-08-20
First Deputy Governor Svante Öberg
Global GDP growthAnnual percentage change
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sources: IMF and the RiksbankNote. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
GDP growth in the BRIC countriesAnnual percentage change
Source: IMFNote. 2010 and 2011: IMF forecasts from July.
2009 2010 2011Brazil -0.2 7.1 4.2Russia -7.9 4.3 4.1India 5.7 9.4 8.4China 9.1 10.5 9.6
GDP growth in the USAAnnual percentage change
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Purchasing managers’ indexIndex figure above 50 indicates growth
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Euro area
USA
Inflation in the USAAnnual percentage change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CPI USA
CPI excluding energy and food USA
Central banks’ balance sheetsPer cent of GDP
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the respective central banks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
The Riksbank
ECB
Federal reserve
GDP growth in the euro areaAnnual percentage change
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Sources: IMF and the Riksbank
Inflation in the euro areaAnnual percentage change
Source: Eurostat
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5HICP total
HIKP excluding energy and unprocessed food
Public finances in the OECD-areaPer cent of GDP
Source: OECD
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
70
75
80
85
90
95
100Government net lending
General government gross financial liabilities
Interest rate differential against Germany Percentage points
Source: Reuters EcoWinNote. 10-year Government bonds
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10Greece
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Spain
Basis spread Difference between the interbank rate and the expected policy rateBasis points
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Euro area
USA
CDS premiums for the banks
Source: Reuters EcoWin
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100Alpha Bank (GR)Banco espirito (PT)Banco Commercial (PT)Caxia geral de Depositos (PT)Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (IT)Intesa Sanpaolo (IT)Santander (SPA)Banco Bilbao (SPA)
GDP growthAnnual percentage change
Source: Statistics Sweden
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
GDP per quarterQuarterly percentage change, seasonally adjusted
Source: Statistics Sweden
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
08 09 10
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Economic Tendency SurveyIndex, average = 100, standard deviation = 10
Source: National Institute of Economic Research
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
The Economic Tendency IndicatorMean+/- one standard deviation
Purchasing managers’ indexIndex above 50 indicates growth
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Markit Economics and Swedbank
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Euro areaSwedenUSA
Industrial and services productionIndex, 2005 = 100, seasonally-adjusted data
Source: Statistics Sweden
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Industrial production
Production of services
Labour and employmentThousand persons,15-74 years, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200Employed
Labour force
UnemploymentPer cent of the labour force, 15-74 years, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
0
2
4
6
8
10
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
0
2
4
6
8
10
InflationAnnual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPI
CPIF
Inflation and inflation expectations Annual percentage change, all agents
Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera and Statistics Sweden
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Inflation expectations 5 years aheadCPI
Repo ratePer cent, daily data respectively quarterly averages
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.
Source: The Riksbank
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
July
April
Repo rate and expected repo ratePer cent, all agents
Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
0
1
2
3
4
5Repo rate
Repo rate expectations 5 year ahead
Monetary policy expectationsPer cent, money market participants
Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
0
1
2
3
4
5
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
0
1
2
3
4
5Repo rateForward rate 2010-06-23Forward rate 2010-08-18
The Riksbank’s outstanding loansSEK billion
Source: the Riksbank
0
100
200
300
400
Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
0
100
200
300
400SEK, commercial paperSEK, variable rateSEK, fixed rate
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