the changing nature of student demographics in ontario dialogue may 15, 2008 r. tiffin,...

The Changing Nature of Student Demographics in

Ontario

DIALOGUE May 15, 2008R. Tiffin, Vice-President Students

Session Outline

• World Picture

• Canada/Ontario Perspective

• Ontario Projections

• Implications for Ontario Post-Secondary Institutions

• What are the consequences of the shift from natural increase to immigration as the source of population growth?

Sources

• Can Immigration compensate for below-replacement fertility?: The consequences of the unbalanced settlement of immigrants in Canadian cities 2001 – 2051

•Dr. Deborah Drake Matthews•Minister Responsible for Women’s Issues•Minister of Children and Youth Services

•StatsCan• The Challenge of the Rural Poor, Interim Report of the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, December 2006

Population Trends

• Past population declines were temporary

• Low fertility rates combined with the lowest levels of mortality in human history

• Economically developed countries will experience aging and population decline

• Poorest countries will experience continued rapid population growth

Fertility Rate World Map

The Consequences

• Unequal population distribution

• Social and Economic adjustments

- pensions, healthcare, political imbalance

- Cottbus

• Geopolitical implications

Examples

Europe’s share of the global population:• 1925 - 25%• 1975 – 17%• 2050 – 7%Russia • 10 times the size of Yemen in 2000• Equal size in 2050, Yemen growing and Russia aging

• Last 3.5 billion in N.A., former Soviet Union, China, Southeast Asia and Latin America

• Next 3.5 billion in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia

Causes and Responses

• Increased life expectancy• family breakdown• pensions not children• increased social mobility• changing role of women in society• economic fears

• Increase labour force participation of older workers and women• reform pension plans and eligibility• tax revisions to assist families• lower housing costs• enhanced childcare support

The U.S. Difference

• TFR 2.0

• Teenage fertility rates double those of industrialized nations

• Similar for white and non-white populations – hispanics a factor

• Higher rates of marriage and earlier

• Higher unplanned pregnancies, births and abortions

• Greater access to more effective forms of birth control and socialized health care in Canada

U.S. College/University Trends

Baby boom echo peaks in 2008 – 3.34 m. high school grads

2015+ – Hispanic and Asian student populations

caucasian students decline – from 1.9 to 1.59 mill in 2022

growth primarily in families with no prior college history

Hispanic growth in Texas and southern U.S.

admissions challenge – plan for demographic changes

Canada - Total Fertility Rate, 1953 - 2006

Total Fertility Rate, 1953 - 2006

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Replacement Rate 2.1%

Total Fertility Rate By Province - 2003

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

Canada

NFLD PEI

NS NB PQ ONM

AN

SASKALT

A BC YUNW

T

NUNVT

Outlook for Canada

Under current immigration levels, only 10 of Canada’s 26 largest cities are projected to grow through to 2051, and 12 will be smaller in 2051 than in 2001. Cities with high levels of in-migration are projected to more than double in size.

Circle of Declining Rural Regions

Immigration Patterns

Canada attracts significantly more immigrants on a per capita basis than most other countries in the developed world.

• 1960’s – southern Europe and UK

• 1970’s/80’s – Asia, Central and S.A., Eastern Europe and Middle East

• 1990’s – China and Hong Kong

• 2004 – China and India

Impact of Immigration on Population Growth

• 1940 – 49 – 8%

• 1950 – 1989 – 20 – 30%

• 1990 – 99 – 60%

• Going forward – 100%

Settlement Patterns

• Immigrants from all regions tend to be increasingly attracted to Toronto• Immigrants from Africa are more concentrated in Montreal• 63% of immigrants from South Asia settle in Toronto• Vancouver – Eastern Asia• Strong relationship between the size of an existing immigrant community and the settlement of new immigrants - Proximity of friends and family is the primary determinant• Urbanization 1981 – 58% in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver 2001 – 74% in these cities

Attracters of Recent Immigrants (1998 – 2001), as % of population

5.4%

2.3%

4.8%

2.4%

1.4%

2.8%

1.8%1.5%

2.2%

0.9%

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Recent Immigrants

% of pop.

Government Response to Promote Balanced Distribution

• Sweden, Australia, – transfers to local govt. for specific support services

• Quebec – financial incentives to local govt. to attract immigrants

• Manitoba – agreement with the federal govt. to nominate immigrants to fill specific job vacancies

In-migration

• 40% moving from Montreal -> Toronto

• 25% moving from Vancouver -> Toronto

• 12% moving from Toronto -> Vancouver

• Ontario and BC primary destinations for interprovincial migration

• Mobility decreases as time in country increases

• Least mobile – South/southeast Asia and S. Europe

• 30% of those leaving Toronto move to a city within commuting distance – Hamilton, Oshawa, Kitchener

Projected Populations

Projected Populations in 2051 Under Four Scenarios

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Toro

nto

Mon

treal

Vanco

uver

Calgar

y

Edmon

ton

Ottawa

Hamilto

n

Lond

on

Kitche

ner

Niagar

a

(00

0's

)

2001

Low

Medium

High

Ontario Projections

• Focus on Ontario university aged population – 18 to 21 years of age.

• Pick up on themes that

– growth is mostly the result of immigration

– new Canadians settle differentially around the Province

• All data is from Ontario Ministry of Finance

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/demographics/projections/

Percentage Growth in the 18 – 21 Year Old Population

0.800

0.850

0.900

0.950

1.000

1.050

1.100

1.150

1.200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

ONTARIO

Percentage Growth in the 18 – 21 Year Old Population

0.800

0.850

0.900

0.950

1.000

1.050

1.100

1.150

1.200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

GTA ONTARIO

Percentage Growth in the 18 – 21 Year Old Population

0.800

0.850

0.900

0.950

1.000

1.050

1.100

1.150

1.200

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

outside of GTA GTA ONTARIO

Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Toronto

Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

York Toronto

Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

York Toronto Peel

Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

York Toronto Peel Halton

Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

York Toronto Peel Halton Simcoe

Differences in Growth Rates within the GTA

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

York Toronto Peel Durham Halton Simcoe

Difference in Regions Outside of the GTA

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Hamilton London Ottawa Kitchener Waterloo Windsor Peterborough St. Catherine's

Implications: Where do Students from the GTA go to University?

1.45% 1.91%

8.62%

24.36%

20.09%

43.56%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

OCAD OIT Ryerson Toronto York Other

Implications: Where do Students from Outside the GTA go to University?

0.56% 0.48% 1.78% 3.44% 2.88%

90.86%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

OCAD OIT Ryerson Toronto York Other

Post-Secondary Issues

• Enrolment Growth Capacity

• Recruitment Strategies

• OSAP – financial support

• College – University Partnerships

• Satellite campuses

• Funding initiatives – e.g. First Generation

• Capital plans – residences

• Distance education

• Student services

• Male – female gender issues

• FT – PT