texas coastal bend covid-19 pandemic reportmay 01, 2020 · texas coastal bend covid-19 pandemic...
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TEXAS COASTAL BEND COVID-19 PANDEMIC REPORTMay 1, 2020
CC TAMU-CC Joint COVID-19 Modelling Task Force
Speakers: Dr. Philippe Tissot & Dr. Chris Bird
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ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS & QUESTIONS ABOUT COVID-19 &
INTERVENTIONS
ENABLE EVIDENCE-BASED DECISION MAKING
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TASK FORCE OBJECTIVES
REPORT FOR12 COUNTY COASTAL BEND
AransasBeeBrooksDuvalJim WellsKenedy
KlebergLive OakNueces
McMullen Refugio
San Patricio3
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COASTALBEND CASES
COASTAL BEND CONFIRMED:• 138 CASES (102 Nueces)
• 54 RECOVERIES (Nueces)*• 4 FATALITIES (3 Nueces)
CB FATALITIES
4
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BEXARCASES
COASTALBEND CASES
BX FATALITIESCB FATALITIES
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San Antonio = Bexar County (BX)
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Stay-at-Home
NUECES
REST OF COASTAL BEND
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BEXAR
COASTAL BEND
Stay-at-Home
1. MANDATORY STAY-AT-HOME IF YOU CAN2. LOOSENING RESTRICTIONS ON
SOCIAL/PUBLIC GATHERING3. SCHOOL CLOSURES4. SOCIAL DISTANCING5. SELF ISOLATE WHEN SYMPTOMATIC
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REVIEW OF INTERVENTIONS
3.09
WITHOUT INTERVENTIONSCOVID-19 SPREADS
PEOPLE INFECTED PER CARRIER Week
1
Week2
Week3
Week4
927 81
39
INTERVENTIONS REDUCE TRANSMISSION OF COVID-19
WITH INTERVENTIONS
0.5Coin Flip
1 1 0
1
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Tracking the Effect of Interventions is Critical in Avoiding the Second Wave
11In the Dark Knight, Batman Used Cell Phone Data To Locate the Joker
Saturdays
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STAYAT
HOME
BASELINE
TRACKING INTERVENTION EFFECTIVENESSCell Phone Location Model
• Number of encounters per km2 per day scaled to Nueces
• Estimate probability of contact
• 2 devices within 50 meters for less than 60 minutes
1. “OPEN ECONOMY” 100% MAY 1• End stay-at-home, allow public gatherings• Keep other interventions
2. “OPEN ECONOMY” 50% MAY 1, 100% MAY 15• Roll back Stay-at-Home, public gatherings in stages • Keep other interventions
3. WE OFFSET SUNSETING INTERVENTIONS WITH ELEVATED SOCIAL DISTANCING, MASKS, ETC…
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3 STATEWIDE SCENARIOS MODELEDIN COASTAL BEND
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Second WaveIn Coastal Bend
STAY-AT-HOMESCENARIO:
“OPEN ECONOMY”STATEWIDE
APRIL 30
15
Start of 2nd Wave
In Coastal Bend
SCENARIO:“OPEN ECONOMY”
IN STAGESBY MAY 15
STAY-AT-HOME
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Slowly Extinguishes
COVID-19In Coastal Bend
SCENARIO:OFFSET
“OPEN ECONOMY”
STAY-AT-HOME
SUMMARY• New cases in Coastal Bend are declining
slowly• 1-2 per day on average
• Most likely that COVID-19 is burning out in TX
• But transmission ratio rising according to cell phones
• Curve is flattened but “Opening Economy” projected to lead to spread of COVID-19
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“OPENING ECONOMY” &CONTROLLING SPREAD OF COVID-19
• Other interventions required to control virus transmission
• CDC ‘Masks in public’ decreases transmission
• Self-isolate when symptomatic• More testing capacity and contact tracing to
identify infection and enable isolation of infectious people
• New treatments to mitigate effects of COVID-19
• Seasonality could reduce transmission in summer, but we’re not sure 18
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
• The joint taskforce was created by Judge Canales, City leadership including City Manager Zanoni, TAMU-CC President Miller and Vice President Mahdy
• Many Organizations and People Contributed to this Work• Including: Philippe Tissot, Keren Costanzo, Chris Bird, Daniel McGinn,
Steve Viera, Lucy Huang, Jason Selwyn, Bryan Gillis, Meng Zhao, Greg Buck, Jason Louis, Hilary Watt, Annette Rodriguez, Mike Mohat, Mike Simmons, Scott King, Evan Krell, Mahmoud Eldefrawy, Roy Roberts, Audrey Garza, Gina Concannon, Davey Edwards, Qianqian Liu, Leisha Martin, Ed Warga, Dante Gonzalez, Tiffany Anderson, Maggie Turner
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https://www.conradblucherinstitute.org/covid19-response
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