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Sustainable Energy Systems for Climate Change Adaptation in the Arctic
Mohsen Daraeikhah1, Evan G.R. Davies1, Jennifer V. Lukovich2, Christopher M. Furgal 3 and Slobodan P. Simonovic4
1Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta2Centre for Earth Observation Science (CEOS), University of Manitoba3Department of Indigenous Studies, Trent University4 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Western Ontario
ArcticNet Science Meeting, December 2010
Outline
Project summary
Current energy status
Energy forecast
Alternative energies in the north
Energy model
Methodology
Model structure
Conclusion
Project Summary
What is the problem?Over time, Arctic climate change will have long-term impacts on the north.
How to cope with these impacts?Northern communities will need effective adaptation strategies.
Purpose of this project: Develop a quantitative and participatory model using System Dynamics.
Initial work as a part of a larger modeling project will focus on energy.
The next step is to expand energy model to incorporate:
effects of energy systems on local public infrastructure
broader environmental and socio-economic feedbacks
Source: Davies, 2009
Sea Ice Cover Sea IceThickness
SurfaceTemperature
Mean Precipitation
Coastal Erosion
River FlowVolume
Lake LevelsVegetation Cover+ +
- -
Fresh-water Fish
+ +
+
Permafrost
Land AnimalsEdible Vegetation(tubers, berries, etc.)
Marine Animals
Insects
+
+
+
-+ +
HumanPopulation
SubsistenceWorkforce
Market EconomyWorkforce
+
+
NonrenewableResource Extraction
SubsistenceResource Harvest
+
+
Marine Shipping(fraction of year)
Land Transportation(fraction of year)
- -
+
--
+
--
+
++
--
+++
-
-
+
Housing perCapita
HousingContruction
Water Quality
Water TreatmentCapacity
School Space perCapita
SchoolConstruction
Health CareAccess
HospitalConstruction
-
++
+ +
+
+
Water TreatmentConstruction
+
-+
+
+
+
-
Energy Cost perGJ
Energy Availabilityper Capita
Energy InfrastructureConstruction
Energy TechnologyMarket Share
-
+
-
-
-
+
+
<SurfaceTemperature>
-
-
+
Effective GDP percapita
<SubsistenceResource Harvest>
<NonrenewableResource Extraction>
++
-
+
+
+
++
Project Summary
Benefits of the work:
Determine optimal renewable energy options to promote self-sufficiency and sustainability
Determine climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to rapidly changing ice and atmospheric conditions
Identify community vulnerabilities to environmental change
Lessen dependency on diesel fuel
Involve of stakeholders and people in the modelling process
Model will focus on Arviat and Rankin Inlet, Nunavut.
Reasons:
large centers with previous experience in scientific studies
exposed to changing sea ice conditions of Hudson Bay
Model will be applicable to other Arctic regions as well.
Current Energy Status
Nunavut totally depends on fossil fuel.
Problems of fossil fuel:
Expensive
imported in bulk once per year
requires a large capacity of fuel storage
affected by world oil price fluctuation
risks of leakage and fire
non-renewable resource which causes pollution
In 2006, GN spent about 20% of its annual budget to purchase fuel.
Source: A Discussion Paper for IKUMMATIIT, 2007
Energy Forecast
If maintaining the current trend, Nunavut will consume 227 ML of diesel in 2020.
Projection of QEC for year 2020:
Transportation: 64.6 to 95.6 ML/Y
Heating: 48.5 to 128.5 ML/Y
Electrical sales grows 96 million kWh, annual consumption of 55 million litres
Source: IKUMMATIIT 2007
Alternative Energy Sources in the North
Wind
Solar
Small hydro
Alternative Energy Sources in the NorthGeothermal
Biomass
Tidal
Energy Model
Develop an energy model using system dynamics
This model will show:
monthly electricity and fuel costs
effects of district heating and other efficiency measures
reliability of different options
broader environmental, social and financial effects
Community engagement in the modeling process:
critical role of people in the project
participitation in interviews and workshops
involved in setting project goals, identifying key varaibles and reviweing the model
Methodology: System Dynamics
System Dynamics is,
A simulation approach to represent real‐world structures and processes
through nonlinear feedbacks, stocks and flows, and delays.
Interdisciplinary: Socio-economic and natural systems are linked in one consistent framework.
Participatory: Researchers interact directly with stakeholders at all stages of research.
Practical: Provides quantitative decision-support tools for researchers, policy- makers and public.
StockInflow Outflow
(Rate) (Integral)
DieselStorage
Diesel storage cap
Diesel delivery
HeatConsumption
Home heatdemand
Commercial heatdemand
School heatdemand
ElectricGeneration
Home electricdemand
School electricdemand
Commercial electricdemand
Gas Storage
Boats
Snow machines
other
Gas delivery
Gas storagecapacity
Gas consumptions
Adapted from Hemsath and Hoffman, 2007
Conclusion
Arctic climate change is now recognized as a problem threatening the Arctic environment.
To cope with these impacts, need to effective adaptation strategies.
System dynamics to understand feedback connections between climate, terrestrial, hydrological, and socio-economic systems.
Initial work will focus on energy modelling.
The next step is to expand the energy model to incorporate broader environmental and socio-economic feedbacks.
Thanks For Your Thanks For Your AttentionAttention
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