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Sustainability Science or Fiction?

Pim Martens

11th Annual International Sustainable Development Research Conference6-8 June 2005, Helsinki, Finland

What is sustainable development?

Emerged from the collective aspirations of theworld’s people for:

ØPeace

ØFreedom

ØImproved living conditions

ØHealthy environment

What is sustainable development?

Most frequently quoted :(Brundtland Commission (1987))

‘Sustainable development is a developmentthat meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their own needs. ’

Characteristics of Sustainable Development

region city country continent world

place

time

2000

2025

2050

now there

futureØ Intergenerational

Ø Level of scale

and here

Characteristics of Sustainable Development

Ø Multipledomains

EconomicEcological

Social-cultural

justice

efficiencyresilience

Characteristics of Sustainable Development

Ø Multipleinterpretation

Symptoms non-sustainable development

Ø Agriculture:mad cow disease, foot-and-mouth disease

Ø Water sector:flooding, droughts

problems related to water quality

Ø Traffic and transport systems:Air pollution, traffic jams

Sustainable health

Health

Health as an integrated sustainability index

Socio-Economic

developments

EcosystemsNaturalsystems

Society

Geophysicalsystems

Culture

Population

Politics

Naturalenvironment

Socialenvironment

Symptoms non-sustainable development

Ø Health:

SARS

malaria

tuberculosis

obesity

AIDS

malnutrition

ØHigh birth- and deathrates

ØInfectious diseases

ØBad hygiene andhealthcare

ØSome developingcountries are still in thisphase

Sustainable health

The health transition – phase 1

time

Hea

lthy

life

expe

ctan

cy

Pestilence and famine

ØDecrease birth- anddeath rates

ØReduction incidenceinfectious diseases

ØImproved hygiene andliving conditions

ØMost developingcountries are in this phase

Sustainable health

The health transition – phase 2

time

Hea

lthy

life

expe

ctan

cy

Pestilence and famine

Receding pandemics

time

The health transition – phase 3

Hea

lthy

life

expe

ctan

cy ØLow birth and deathrates

ØDeaths mainly due tochronic diseases

ØAgeing of the population

ØDeveloped countries arein this phase

Sustainable health

Pestilence and famine

Receding pandemics

Chronic diseases

A healthy and sustainable future?

Pestilence and famine

Receding pandemics

Sustaining health

Medical technologyChronic diseases

Emerging infectious diseases

Future ?

time

Hea

lthy

life

expe

ctan

cy

Medical technology

Emerging infectious diseases

Developed countries

Developing countries

Epidemieën, honger en oorlog

Afnemende infectieziekten

Veroudering enchronische ziekten

Future:A market world

Ø Business as usualØ Economic growthØ Technological developmentØ Population growthØ Environmental problems

A healthy and sustainable future?

Emerging infectious diseases

Epidemieen, honger en oorlog

Afnemende infectieziekten

Veroudering enchronische ziekten

Future:A fragmented word

Ø Stagnation globalisationØ Decreasing economic growthØ RegionalismØ ‘Future of inequity’Ø Decline social infrastructuresØ Environmental problems

Developing and developedcountries

A healthy and sustainable future?

Medical technology

Epidemieën, honger en oorlog

Afnemende infectieziekten

Veroudering enchronische ziekten

Future:A sustainable world

Ø Increased social and ecologicalconsciousnessØ Economic growth within limits ofØ Sustainable developmentØ Decreased inequityØ Stabilisation population growthØ Improve quality of theenvironment

Sustaining health

Developed countries

Developing countries

A healthy and sustainable future?

Micro and macro approach

A sustainable health transition

e.g. poverty reduction, education,macro-economic developments,

reduction greenhouse gas emission

e.g. lifestyle, housing,food- and water provision

macro

micro

The complexity of sustainable development

Multiple dimensions

Complexity

New paradigm

Sustainability Sciencetime

pers

pect

ivesdomains

place

Sustainability Science

A new research paradigm

Mode-1 science Mode-2 science

Academic Academic and socialMono-disciplinary Trans- and interdisciplinaryTechnocratic ParticipativeCertain UncertainPredictive Exploratory

Sustainability Science

Using complex systems theory as an umbrella mechanism to bringtogether the various different parts of the sustainability puzzle

Central elements

ØCo-evolution(of a complex system and its environment)ØCo-production(of knowledge)ØCo-learning(learning by doing and doing through learning)

Sustainability Science

Mode-1 science

AcademicMono-disciplinaryTechnocraticCertainPredictive

Mode-2 science

Academic and socialTrans- and interdisciplinaryParticipativeUncertainExploratory

New methods and techniques

Sustainability Science

Integrated Assessment

ØAnalytical methods(e.g. Integrated Assessment models,scenarios)

ØParticipatory methods(e.g. dialogue, mutual learning)

ØPolicy methods(e.g. transition management)

Sustainability Science

Breaking down the barriers

Ø Scientific barriers

Ø Sectoral barriers

Ø Geographical barriers

Ø Communicative barriers

Level of scale (temporal and spatial)

Level of integration

Sustainability Scienceand the policy-making process

integrated, proactive,long-term, innovationand sustainability

functional, reactive,ad hoc,effect oriented,short-term

multifunctional,mid- and long-term,cost-effective,optimalisation Su

staina

bility

Scien

ce

Sustainable education

‘Education – in all its forms and all itslevels – is not only an end in itself but isalso one of the most powerful instrumentswe have for bringing about the changesrequired to achieve sustainabledevelopment’

Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General UNESCO

Sustainability

science? fiction?