strategies to lock in milk and feed prices- dave byers

Strategies with Future Corn, Soybean Meal and Milk Prices

Dave ByersDavid_Byers@att.net

Galax, VA

Bull/Bull Market

• Someone who thinks market prices will rise

• A period of rising prices

Bear/Bear Market

• Someone who thinks market prices will decline

• A period of declining market prices

What Lies Ahead?

• The BIG QUESTION in the financial markets is to know,

• People want a financial “Crystal Ball”• What will be the price of corn, SBM and

milk– 3 months– 6 months– 12 months

What Lies Ahead?

• Nevertheless, there are systems that attempt to predict

• Two main schools in the financial markets:– Fundamental Analysis– Technical Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

• Looks at economic factors, known as fundamentals– Dollar– Acres coming out of CRP– Number of ethanol plants coming into production

• In short, it examines the forces of supply and demand

Technical Analysis

• Looks at the price movement of a commodity and uses this data to predict its future movements

• Extensive use graphs of data to “make invisible visible”--called chartists

Key to Technical Analysis

• Identifying a trend• In fact, technical analysis can be

summed up in the saying, “The trend is your friend.”

• Future price movement is MORE LIKELY to be in the same direction as the trend

Technical Analysis

• Something that has always fascinated me• In recent years, I have found it a useful

tool to increase profitability of dairy operations

• I send weekly commodity updates dealing with corn, soybean meal, and milk to clients and other interested individuals

Bullish alignment“Technical buy” signals

Interest in Commodity Reports

• David_Byers@att.net• No charge--the price is right