stevens institute of technology systems engineering research center … · 2016-10-30 · 1 stevens...

1

StevensInstituteofTechnology&

SystemsEngineeringResearchCenter(SERC)SystemsEngineeringTransformationthrough

ModelCentricEngineeringPresentedBy:

Dr.MarkR.BlackburnWithContributingResearchers(RT-48,118,141,157):

Dr.MaryBoneDr.GaryWitus

Dr.RobertCloutierProf.Eirik Hole

GeorgetownUniversity(RT-168)GeorgiaTechUniversity(RT-170)

StevensInstituteofTechnology(RT-157,168,170)UniversityofMaryland(RT-170)

UniversityofSouthernCalifornia(RT-168)

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 2

Outline

• Problem,ObjectivesandTerminology(PhaseI)

• BottomLine(UpFront)

• Currentresearchthrusts

• PerspectivesnewRT-157/RT-170(PhaseII)

• Status

• ConclusionsandImpacts

• Backup:pastRT-48/118/141(PhaseI)

• Acknowledgments

• AcronymsandImagecredits

Certain commercial software products are identified in this material. These products were used only for demonstration purposes. This use does not imply approval or endorsement by Stevens, SERC, or NAVAIR, nor does it imply these products are necessarily the best available for the purpose. Other product names, company names, images, or names of platforms referenced herein may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies, and they are used for identification purposes only.

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 3

FeasibilityStudyObjectives

Problemstatement(PhaseI):

Ittakestoolongtobringlarge-scaleairvehiclesystemsfromconcepttooperation

Primaryquestion:Is it Technically Feasible to have a Radical Transformationthrough Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and achievea 25 percent reduction in the time to develop large-scale airvehicle system (using computer/digital models)?

Corollary:How do we know that models/simulations used to assessPerformance have the needed Integrity to ensure predictionsare accurate (i.e., that we can trust the models)?

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 4

Sponsor’sVisionatKickoffMeeting:Cross-Domain,Multi-Physics,ModelsIntegration

Continuousrefinementofmodelsthroughcross-domain&multidisciplinaryanalysissupportingvirtualV&VfromCONOPStomanufacturing

IntegratedEnvironmenttoProduceDigitalSystemModel:SingleSourceofTechnicalTruth

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 5

• Over30organizationaldiscussions“mostholisticapproach…”:―Model-BasedEngineering(MBE),IntegratedModel-CentricEngineering,InteractiveModel-CentricSystemsEngineering(IMCSE),Model-DrivenDevelopment,Model-DrivenEngineering(MDE),andevenModel-BasedEnterprise,whichbringsinmorefocusonmanufacturability

―DigitalThreadenvisionsframeworksthatmergesphysics-basedmodelsgeneratedby(cross)disciplineengineersduringdetaileddesignprocesswithMBSE’sconceptualandtop-levelarchitecturalmodels,resultinginasingleauthoritativerepresentationofthesystem[West,Pyster,INCOSE2015]

•MCE characterizesthegoalofintegratingdifferentmodeltypeswithsimulations,surrogates,systemsandcomponentsatdifferentlevelsofabstractionandfidelityacrossdisciplinethroughoutthelifecyclewithmanufacturabilityconstraints

• WecouldhaveusedthewordsDigitalEngineering,whichwedo

ModelBasedSystemEngineering(MBSE)versusModel-CentricEngineering(MCE)

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 6

ConceptualReferenceModel:IntegratedEnvironmentforIterativeTradespaceAnalysisofProblemandDesignSpace

Multidiscipline Design,Analysis andOptimization(MDAO)

SingleSourceofTechnicalTruth:ToolAgnostic,SemanticallyPreciseCrossDomainIntegration&InteroperabilityenabledbyHPC

Performance Integrity

SecurePlugin

Cost&Schedule

Systems,Surrogates&Platforms

DocGen

Appropriate Views for Stakeholders

Knowledge …

ContinuousWorkflow

Orchestration

ComputerAugmentation

&Training

PLM

Rich Modeling Interfaces “Web” Interface integrated

with Rich Visualizations

“Illities”

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 7

ScopeofDataCollectionforTask1TracedtoEvidence(notexhaustive)

Discussion(Topics(not(exhaustive) N

ASA

/JPL

A B C Alta

ir

GE

Sand

ia

DARP

A5M

ETA5(V

B)

DARP

A5M

ETA5(B

AE)

Mod

el5Cen

ter

Autom

otive

CREA

TE

Performance

Integrity

Affordability

Risk

Metho

dology

Single5Sou

rce5of5Tech5Truth

Prioritization5&

Tradeo

ff5Analysis

Concep

t5Engineering

Architecture5&

Design5Analysis

Design5&5Test

Reuse5&5Synthesis

Active5System

Characterizatio

n

Hum

anMSystem

Integration

Modeling5CONOPS x x x x x x xModeling5Patterns x x x x x x x x xMultiMPhysics5Modeling5and5Simulation x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xMultiMDiscpline/Domain5Analysis5and5Optimization x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xMissionMtoMSystemMlevel5Simulation5Integration x x x x x x x x x x xAffordability5Analysis x x x x x x x x x xQuantification5of5Margins x x x x x x x x x x xRequirement5Generation5(from5Models) x x x x x x x xTool5agnostic5digital5representation x x x x x x x x x x xModel5measures5(thru5formal5checks) x x x x x x x x x xModeling5and5Sim5for5Manufacturability x x x x x x x x x x x x x xProcess5Automation5(workflows) x x x x x x xIterative/Agile5use5of5MCE x x x x x x xHigh5Performance5Computing x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xPlatformMbased5and5Surrogates x x x x x x x x3D5Environments5and5Visualization x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xImmersive5Environments x x x x x xDomainMspecific5modeling5languages5 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x xSetMbased5design5 x x x x x x x x xModel5validation/qualification/trust x x x x x x x xModeling5Environment5and5Infrastructure x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

Instances5where5discussed5(not5exhaustive) From5Kickoff5BriefingCharacteristics

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 8

SETransformationPhaseII(Q42015)“DoingEverythingwithModels– 25%ReductioninCycle-time”

2) Model Integrity1) Model Cross-Domain Integration

3) Modeling Methodology Implementation at NAVAIR 4) SE Transformation Roadmap

Targeted discussions with Government, Industry & Academia on developing and operating in modeling framework enabling cross-domain model integration& Single Source of TechnicalTruth (SSTT) methodology

Define Methodologies for Model Integrity and Uncertainty Quantification:• Provide trust in model-based predictions, with

Quantification of Margins & Uncertainties• Framework for integrating risk and understanding

uncertainty in the data

Develop a roadmap to rollout capabilities addressing all five perspectives in parallel:1. Technologies and infrastructure for SSTT2. Methodologies and processes3. People, competencies

and SSTT interfaces4. Operational & contractual

paradigms for transformedinteractions with industry

5. Governance

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 9

BottomLine• Organizations(withafewexceptions)wereunwillingtosharequantitativedata

• QualitativedataintheaggregatesuggeststhatMCEtechnologiesandmethodsareadvancingandadoptionisaccelerating

NAVAIRExecutiveLeadershipResponse:

• NAVAIRmustmovequicklytokeeppacewithotherorganizationsthathaveadoptedMCE

• NAVAIRmusttransforminordertoperformeffectiveoversightofprimesthatareusingmodernmodelingmethodsforsystemdevelopment

March2016:ChangeofCommandhasAcceleratedtheSystemsEngineeringTransformationandBroadenedtheScope

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 10

Model-CentricEngineeringCanEnableNewTypesofCoordination

• Ina“DigitalEngineering”environment,governmentandindustryneedtoworkinadifferentway

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 11

FrameworkforNewOperationalParadigmBetweenGovernmentandIndustry

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 12

RT-157 Perspectives

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 13

TracingtheCampaignandMissionAnalysistoSystemCapabilitiesofEvolvingPlatforms

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 14

DynamicCONOPSIntegratedwithMissionSimulationstoBetterUnderstandNeededSystemCapabilities

Simulated-basedStudyViewsMethod

StructuresandFormalizestheJCIDS*Conceptsprior

toDoDAFModeling

*Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS)

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 15

MultidisciplinaryDesign,AnalysisandOptimizationSupportsTradespaceAnalysisAcrossDisciplines

VehicleDesign

Geometry&Packaging Airframe&

EngineAero

Sensors

Propulsion

Structures

“illites”

Comm./Radar

Store/Payloads

DetailedDesignfromAssociatedDisciplinesandCompetencies

MDAOImplementsWorkflowwithSolverstoEvaluate

TradesSystematicallyDrivenbyDesignofExperiment

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 16

NeedtoBetterIntegrateMultipleLevelsofSystemModelswithDiscipline-SpecificDesigns

VehicleDesign

Geometry&Packaging Airframe&

EngineAero

Sensors

Propulsion

Structures

“illites”

Comm./Radar

Store/Payloads

Architectural,SystemandComponentModels

DefinetheCross-DomainIntegrationandBringinDetailedBehaviors

Iterative Process

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 17

Re-defineRequiredEngineeringDataandAssociatedContractLanguage

17

Domains Associated with Competencies

Syst

em L

evel

s

CD

RL

Dat

a “B

ough

t” Hi

stor

ical

lyNear Term Transformation

Focus on Value and Risk-Driven “Digital CDRLs”That Relate to Key Cross-Domain System

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 18

StructureofSETRChecklistQuestions

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 19

MethodologiesareCriticalBecauseCommercialToolsareMethodAgnostic

Reference Technology Platform (RTP)

Program RTP Instance Program RTP Instance Program RTP Instance

Cross-domainmethodologies ensuretoolusageproducescompleteandconsistentinformationcompliantwithontologiesofSSTT

DigitalSystemModel:SingleSourceofTechnicalTruth(SSTT)

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 20

OrganizationsareModelingandSimulatingManufacturingBeforeTooling

• Set-baseddelaysdesignselectionandincreasinglyfactorsinmanufacturability

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 21

SETransformation“Role-out”Strategy

Capability Development

SE Transformation Research (SERC + SET Team)

Capability Development

SET Framework Operations & Maintenance (SEDIC/4.1)

Research State-of-the=art

Research Literature

Pilot 1 – MQ-25A (SERC + SET Team + SEDIC)

Pilot 2 – TBD

Pilot 3 – TBD

Research Collaboration

Release Release Release

Lessons Learned

Lessons Learned

Lessons Learned

Enterprise Deployment

Dev

elop

men

t A

pplic

atio

n &

Dep

loym

ent

•  Model Integration •  Model Integrity •  Implementation Methods •  Roadmap

SET Framework •  Modeling Environment •  System Model •  Standard Language •  Modeling Analysis

Cap. Dev.

Capability Development

SERC Research

Res

earc

h

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 22

StatusAgainstFrameworkResearch(1/3)–ContractingthroughDigitalEngineering

• DevelopingsurrogateUAVtodemonstratehowmodelsrepresentrequirementatlogicalandfunctionallevels―ConceptcanbepartofaSOWandRFPfornewcontractualvehiclebasedonDigitalEngineeringforcompetitivedownselect(NDIAinvolvedinthiseffort)

―IllustratelinksfromsystemmodelstoMDAOandothertypesofmodels―Modelssupportvalidationofrequirementsandprovidesameansforverificationplanningandbasisofestimatefortesting

―ExamplesalreadypresentedatworkingsessionsandincludedinRT-157InterimTechnicalReport

• Developingmodelsofmethodsandprocessestoillustratelinkagebetweenmission,system,referenceandMDAO,etc.models

• Planistodevelop“surrogate”UAVmodelasameansforillustratingwhatneedstobemodeledbeyondDoDAF focusedonnet-readyviews

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 23

StatusAgainstFrameworkResearch(2/3)–MDAOExampleRelevanttoUAV

• DevelopedMDAOworkflowforexampleofKPP(range)usingUAVWeight,Aero,Propulsion,Performance,whichlinksbacktosystemmodeltoillustratemethod:― Definingsequenceofworkflows(scenarios)― Identifyingasetofinputsandoutputs (parameters)― DefineaDesignofExperiments(DoE)anduseanalysessuchassensitivityanalysisand

visualizationstounderstandthekeyparametertoscope― UseOptimizationusingsolverswithkeyparametersanddefinedifferent(keyobjectivefunctions

– onoutputs) todeterminesetofsolutions(resultsoftenprovidedasatableofpossiblesolutions)

― Usevisualizationstounderstandrelationshipsofdifferentsolutions

― Conceptapplicableatmission,systemandsubsystems

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 24

StatusAgainstFrameworkResearch(3/3)–ModelIntegrity

• Steven’sPhDcandidateCol.TimothyWest(advisorMarkBlackburn)runswindtunnelsatArnoldEngineeringDevelopmentComplex

• ResearchinvolvesaproposedmethodologytouseSandiaNationalLaboratory(SNL)DAKOTAToolkit withDoDComputationalResearchandEngineeringAcquisitionToolsandEnvironments(CREATE)AirVehicle(AV) familyofcomputationaltools(e.g.,CFD,FEA),inordertodevelopanoptimizedwindtunnelcampaignfortwodifferentaerodynamicshapestoassesstheprocess

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 25

ConclusionsandImpacts• NAVAIRisevolvingaframeworkforanewcollaborativeoperationalparadigmwithindustry―Conductingmeetingswithindustryto“validate”conceptandsolicitrecommendationsforimprovementandevolution

• Programs―NAVAIReffortstargetedtorealprograms―Newcontractingmodel/approachneeded―Newcriteriaforassessing“maturity”vice“milestones”

• Policy– canthecurrentpolicystillwork?

• Collaboration:newSERCresearchwithUSArmyARDECtargetingtheirneedsforMCEincollaborationwithNAVAIR

• GovernmentandIndustryForumonMCE

• DigitalEngineeringStrategyInitiative(coordinatedthroughDASD)

• AirspaceIndustryAssociation:CONOPSforIndustry/GovernmentCollaborativeFramework

• NDIAWorkingGroup–UsingDigitalEngineeringforCompetitiveDownSelect

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 26

BackupRT-48/118/141 Perspectives

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 27

FourTaskstoAssessTechnicalFeasibilityof“DoingEverythingwithModels”(EverythingDigital)

2) Develop Common Lexicon for Model Levels, Types, Uses, and Representations

1) Global scan and classification of holistic state-of-the-art MBSE

3) Model the Vision of Everything Done with Models and Relate to “As Is” process

4) Fully integrate model-driven Risk Management and Decision Making

• Use discussion framework to survey government, industry and academia

• Quantify, link and trace realized modeling capabilities to Vision (task 3)

Campaign

Mission

Engagement

Engineering

Model Types

Structure/Interfaces

Behavior (functions)

Concurrency

Resources/Environment

Address two classes of risk:• Airworthiness and

Safety• Program Execution

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 28

Task1:Industry,GovernmentandAcademiaVisitsandDiscussions

•Wehadopen-endeddiscussionsTellusaboutthemostadvancedandholisticapproachtomodel-centricengineeringyouuseorseenused

•Didnotsingleoutspecificcompanies

• Spectrumofinformationwasverybroad

•Therereallyisnogoodwaytomakeacomparison

•Wehaveareportthatsummarizestheaggregateofwhatweheard

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 29

RT-48/118/141Summary

• Over30discussionsand21onsitewithIndustry,GovernmentandAcademia,withfollow-ups– oursummaryisnotexhaustive

• Developedcommonlexiconofover700termsformodellevels,types,uses,andrepresentations,withmanycontributors

• Modelsarebecomingmoredynamicandintegratedacrossdomains,asopposedtostaticandisolated,enabledbyHPC,semanticprecision,andvisualanalytics

• Severalstrategieshavebeendevelopedandappliedforquantificationofmodelconfidence,enabledbyHPC

• AnswertoSponsor:ItistechnicallyfeasibletoradicallytransformsystemsengineeringatNAVAIRthroughMCSE;however,theevidencedoesnotshowconclusivelythatitwillproducea25%reductioninacquisitioncycletime.

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 30

Acknowledgment

• WewishtoacknowledgethegreatsupportoftheNAVAIRsponsorsandstakeholders,includingstakeholdersfromotherindustrypartnersthathavebeenveryhelpfulandopenaboutthechallengesandopportunitiesofthispromisingapproachtotransformsystemsengineering.

• WewanttospecificallythankDaveCohenwhoestablishedthevisionforthisproject,andourNAVAIRteam,JaimeGuerrero,GaryStrauss,BrandiGertsner,DavidMeiser andRonCarlson,whohasworkedcloselyonaweeklybasisinhelpingtocollaborativelyresearchthiseffort.WethankHowardOwensandDennisReedwhohavejoinedusinsomeoftheorganizationalvisits.WealsothankLarrySmith,Ernest(Turk)Tavares,Eric(Tre´)Johnsen,whoworkedPhaseI&IIwithus,buthavelefttheproject.

• Wehavehadover40discussionswithorganizationsfromIndustry,Government,andAcademia,andwewanttothankallofthosestakeholders(over200people),includingsomefromindustrythatwillremainanonymousinrecognitionofourneedtocomplywithproprietaryandconfidentialityagreementsassociatedwithTask1.

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 31

ThankYou

• Formoreinformationcontact:―MarkR.Blackburn,Ph.D.―Mark.Blackburn@stevens.edu―StevensInstituteofTechnology

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 32

CDD CapabilityDescriptionDocumentCONOPS ConceptofOperationsCDR CriticalDesignReviewCDRL ContractDataRequirements ListCFD Computational FluidDynamicsDARPA DefenseAdvancedResearchProject

AgencyDASD DeputyAssistantSecretaryofDefenseDoD DepartmentofDefenseDoE DesignofExperimentsFEA FiniteElementAnalysisHPC HighPerformanceComputingIMCE IntegratedModel-Centric EngineeringIMCSE InteractiveModel-centricSystems

EngineeringIoT InternetofThingsJCIDS JointCapabilities Integrationand

DevelopmentSystemKPP KeyPerformanceParameterMBSE Model-based SystemEngineeringMBE Model-Based EngineeringMCE Model-Centric Engineering

MCSE Model-Centric SystemEngineeringMDAO Multidisciplinary DesignAnalysis and

OptimizationMDE Model-Driven EngineeringNAVAIR NavalAirSystemsCommandOV OperationalViewP&FQ PerformanceandFlightQualityPDR PreliminaryDesignReviewPLM ProductLifecycleManagementRT ResearchTaskSLOC SoftwareLinesOfCodeSE Systems EngineeringSET Systems EngineeringTransformationSERC SystemEngineeringResearchCenterSETR Systems EngineeringTechnicalReviewSFR SystemFunctional ReviewSRR SystemRequirements ReviewSoS SystemofSystemsSOW StatementofWorkSSTT SingleSourceofTechnicalTruthSV SystemViewUAV UnmannedAirVehicleV&V VerificationandValidation

Acronyms

MarkR.Blackburn, Ph.D. 33

ImageCredits• Certaincommercialproducts, equipment, instruments, orothercontentidentified inthisdocument doesnot

imply recommendationorendorsement bytheauthors,SERC,orNAVAIR,nordoes itimplythattheproductsidentified arenecessarily thebestavailableforthepurpose.

• Imagecredits/sourcesSlide#4:m.plm.automation.siemens.com,mosimtec.com, www.defenseindustrydaily.com, www.darkgovernment.comSlide#6:www.defenseindustrydaily.com, www.darkgovernment.com,NAVAIRSlide#10:http://www.eonreality.com/hardware/Slide#13:www.defenseindustrydaily.com, www.darkgovernment.com, NAVAIRSlide#11:www.fightercontrol.co.uk, en.wikipedia.org,en.wikipedia.orgSlide#14:Imagecredit:AGI,NAVAIRStudyViewsSlide#15:Imagecredit:AGI,Phoenix IntegrationSlide#16:mosimtec.comSlide#19:CRitical SYSTem EngineeringAcceLeration, Interoperability Specification (IOS)– V1D601.021,ARTEMIS-2012-1-332830, 2014.Slide#20:Slide#18:m.plm.automation.siemens.com,mosimtec.com, www.defenseindustrydaily.com, www.darkgovernment.comSlide#24:ArnoldEngineering DevelopmentComplex